Canada's been a fairly reliable supporter of Ukraine - it just doesn't have as much to offer as the bigger countries do. Now, as to whether it's pulling its weight in defence spending overall, that's another matter entirely.
I think as long as Ukraine wants to fight, the west should enthusiastically provide support, and take the gloves off on restrictions that are in place. For example you can fire missiles into Moscow's suburbs. You cannot target Red Square. This nonsense has gone on too long; paralysed by Trump's attempts(Trump and the GOP being indistinguishable) to support Putin for whatever his actual reasons are. I think Russian civilians need a little reminder that Vladdy's special military operation that was supposed to last 2 weeks is actually a colossal failure.
I do truly enjoy reading any article written by young Adam Zivo. This lad is a superb investigative reporter/writer/journalist. When this is all over, Ukraine will emerge as one of the strongest military powers in Eastern Europe. Ukraine will be the only nation in the west who has had a very recent history in fighting a different modern war. They will be one of the few nations who have defeated their enemy's navy without having a navy of their own. Ukraine will be one of the very rare countries who managed to stalemate a enemy with three times Ukraine's population. Lets admit it. These people are special, very, very special.
A Russian three day victory has ended up as a 30 month disaster for Russia. It might get worse for the Russians. Months ago the West initiated sanctions on Russia. The sanctions are just now starting to take larger and larger bites out of the Russian economy. At the very beginning of this war I had a discussion with a friend of mine. His take was "this will be over in two weeks, because Russia has a much larger population, and a bigger military, and a much larger economy". I asked him one question. "When and what was the last product you purchased that had a stamp on it that said Made in Russia?" Russia's glaring weakness is their inability to export or manufacture products that are of interest to the Western consumer. Now the sanctions are hitting home. Now the Ukrainians are hitting Russia in their backyard. It will be years and years before the West will re-invest in the Russian economy. It might get worse. If Prigozhin can get a small army within two hours of Moscow, does it not make sense that the Ukrainian military can get even closer or right into Moscow with an even larger army?
Ukraine military has invaded the Oblast of Kursk. What is intriguing is the Oblast just south of Kursk and bordering Ukraine ,is called Belgorod. In the Oblast of Belgorod they speak a dialect which is very similar to the language of Ukraine and clearly understood by Ukrainians. Never underestimate the Ukrainians. Russia underestimated them. Russian military underestimated them. Putin underestimated them. If you wanted to bet some loose change on the outcome? Put your money on Ukraine
And look at how innovative they've been. Astonishing engineering know-how, taking what they had and adapting new technology to create modern weapons. We will be learning and borrowing from them.
No doubt in my mind that in five years, Ukraine will be exporting weapon technology and innovative production technology to the west. An absolutely, insanely, creative, nation!
Writer Fred Kaplan recently noted that for Americans (and really, the West in general), wars are treated a bit like a toy to be played with and then abandoned when it gets boring. People don't seem to understand the stakes of the war in Ukraine: it's obviously an existential struggle for Ukraine, but it also strongly impacts the threat the West is facing from authoritarian states including Russia and China.
The rules-based international order has served the West very well, validated by billions of more people around the world who aspired to become part of that system. Authoritarian states like China and Russia seek to change that order, reverting back to the older "law of the jungle/might makes right" because it suits the interests of their ruling cliques despite the benefits they've realized from the Western approach. Standing firm behind Ukraine and ensuring a Russian defeat directly defeats an avowed adversary of the West, and also serves as a warning to China that the costs of conflict with the West will be very steep. Countering aggression early was the lesson the West learned after appeasement led to WW2. We seem to have forgotten it again, having enjoyed a generations-long respite from major conflicts and allowing the lesson to be discredited by poor judgement that led to involvement in conflicts like Vietnam.
Thanks Adam...I too wondered about the fact that the Ukrainians had broken into the Russian juggernaut successfully but it disappears off the front pages pretty fast. Can hardly wait for this war to be over with people in the West celebrating the Ukrainians brave success.
In terms of what's happening, I made this map about a week ago (underlying source Andrew Perpetua, chicken-scratch mine), but it's broadly still correct (The Ukranian Blue of control is larger, the Ukrainian Yellow of contested control is smaller both because more blue and also Russian retrenchment): https://i.ibb.co/fFJXkjG/Kursk-Battle-Map.jpg
If you look at the little pocket below the Seym river, the Ukrainians have destroyed all the bridges and destroy the pontoon bridges as they pop up. A couple of thousand Russian troops are fixed there and it is very difficult for the Russians to resupply them. The little 'rat' icon shows a funny incident with Russian soldiers looting a Russian store.
The E38 highway is now closed to civilian traffics and Ukrainian drones are prowling the highway and destroying Russian military vehicles. Taking L'gov would be a prize as it is the intersection of several rail lines and a highway but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.
I write this as someone who is Canadian because of one of the many Soviet Invasions in the past and who 100% is for a responsible strategy of arming Ukraine to kick out the Russians of all of Ukraine.
I think it's important to recognize that "the Russians advanced two kilometers" is not actually meaningful. There are many hundreds of kilometers between Pokrovsk and Kyiv.
I can't tell you which resource on which side will be critically attrited first and force a peace deal, but I can tell you which one it won't be: territory.
David your comment is unfortunately too true. I sometimes wonder if we couldn’t teach the Russians a thing or two when it comes to corruption and incompetence.
It has been written that Canada was infiltrated and propagandized by Soviets for decades as part of the Cold War, not to mention the obvious influence of the CCP since the end of the Cold War. We learned from the best when it comes to corruption and incompetence.
I think we are helping, if not through our military equipment (sad state that it is), but rather by by accomodating and settling a large number of Ukranian refugees - I know personally that this is happening in Alberta, where there is already a large multi-generational Ukranian diaspora population.
The M777s and Excaliburs we sent in 2022 were a real game changer and benefit at the time. The few Leopard 2 tanks we sent are nice, but really a rounding error in terms of total number of AFU tanks. It seems that the Senators are performing well on the battle field.
Thanks for this. Continued justification for my micro subsidy. As a lifelong student of history and it's wars, this current iteration is both fascinating and depressing. History also tells me that Ukraine will triumph. They survived Stalin and in 10 years [Ras]Putin will be another really bad memory. I hope I'm around to see it.
It's a good thing Ukraine has allies more reliable than Canada!
Canada's been a fairly reliable supporter of Ukraine - it just doesn't have as much to offer as the bigger countries do. Now, as to whether it's pulling its weight in defence spending overall, that's another matter entirely.
Unfortunately, I've got a lot more faith in Ukrainian resolve than Western will.
I think as long as Ukraine wants to fight, the west should enthusiastically provide support, and take the gloves off on restrictions that are in place. For example you can fire missiles into Moscow's suburbs. You cannot target Red Square. This nonsense has gone on too long; paralysed by Trump's attempts(Trump and the GOP being indistinguishable) to support Putin for whatever his actual reasons are. I think Russian civilians need a little reminder that Vladdy's special military operation that was supposed to last 2 weeks is actually a colossal failure.
I do truly enjoy reading any article written by young Adam Zivo. This lad is a superb investigative reporter/writer/journalist. When this is all over, Ukraine will emerge as one of the strongest military powers in Eastern Europe. Ukraine will be the only nation in the west who has had a very recent history in fighting a different modern war. They will be one of the few nations who have defeated their enemy's navy without having a navy of their own. Ukraine will be one of the very rare countries who managed to stalemate a enemy with three times Ukraine's population. Lets admit it. These people are special, very, very special.
A Russian three day victory has ended up as a 30 month disaster for Russia. It might get worse for the Russians. Months ago the West initiated sanctions on Russia. The sanctions are just now starting to take larger and larger bites out of the Russian economy. At the very beginning of this war I had a discussion with a friend of mine. His take was "this will be over in two weeks, because Russia has a much larger population, and a bigger military, and a much larger economy". I asked him one question. "When and what was the last product you purchased that had a stamp on it that said Made in Russia?" Russia's glaring weakness is their inability to export or manufacture products that are of interest to the Western consumer. Now the sanctions are hitting home. Now the Ukrainians are hitting Russia in their backyard. It will be years and years before the West will re-invest in the Russian economy. It might get worse. If Prigozhin can get a small army within two hours of Moscow, does it not make sense that the Ukrainian military can get even closer or right into Moscow with an even larger army?
Ukraine military has invaded the Oblast of Kursk. What is intriguing is the Oblast just south of Kursk and bordering Ukraine ,is called Belgorod. In the Oblast of Belgorod they speak a dialect which is very similar to the language of Ukraine and clearly understood by Ukrainians. Never underestimate the Ukrainians. Russia underestimated them. Russian military underestimated them. Putin underestimated them. If you wanted to bet some loose change on the outcome? Put your money on Ukraine
And look at how innovative they've been. Astonishing engineering know-how, taking what they had and adapting new technology to create modern weapons. We will be learning and borrowing from them.
No doubt in my mind that in five years, Ukraine will be exporting weapon technology and innovative production technology to the west. An absolutely, insanely, creative, nation!
I have no doubt at all about that!
Writer Fred Kaplan recently noted that for Americans (and really, the West in general), wars are treated a bit like a toy to be played with and then abandoned when it gets boring. People don't seem to understand the stakes of the war in Ukraine: it's obviously an existential struggle for Ukraine, but it also strongly impacts the threat the West is facing from authoritarian states including Russia and China.
The rules-based international order has served the West very well, validated by billions of more people around the world who aspired to become part of that system. Authoritarian states like China and Russia seek to change that order, reverting back to the older "law of the jungle/might makes right" because it suits the interests of their ruling cliques despite the benefits they've realized from the Western approach. Standing firm behind Ukraine and ensuring a Russian defeat directly defeats an avowed adversary of the West, and also serves as a warning to China that the costs of conflict with the West will be very steep. Countering aggression early was the lesson the West learned after appeasement led to WW2. We seem to have forgotten it again, having enjoyed a generations-long respite from major conflicts and allowing the lesson to be discredited by poor judgement that led to involvement in conflicts like Vietnam.
Thanks Adam...I too wondered about the fact that the Ukrainians had broken into the Russian juggernaut successfully but it disappears off the front pages pretty fast. Can hardly wait for this war to be over with people in the West celebrating the Ukrainians brave success.
In terms of what's happening, I made this map about a week ago (underlying source Andrew Perpetua, chicken-scratch mine), but it's broadly still correct (The Ukranian Blue of control is larger, the Ukrainian Yellow of contested control is smaller both because more blue and also Russian retrenchment): https://i.ibb.co/fFJXkjG/Kursk-Battle-Map.jpg
If you look at the little pocket below the Seym river, the Ukrainians have destroyed all the bridges and destroy the pontoon bridges as they pop up. A couple of thousand Russian troops are fixed there and it is very difficult for the Russians to resupply them. The little 'rat' icon shows a funny incident with Russian soldiers looting a Russian store.
The E38 highway is now closed to civilian traffics and Ukrainian drones are prowling the highway and destroying Russian military vehicles. Taking L'gov would be a prize as it is the intersection of several rail lines and a highway but that's unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Thanks for explaining the rat.
The ghosts?
I believe Andrew uses ghost icons to indicate abandoned/captured vehicles - the website is here: https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/
Thanks.
Not an expert at all, but reading think tanks who follow this more closely, it seems the article is more optimistic then warrants. e.g. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-27-2024
I write this as someone who is Canadian because of one of the many Soviet Invasions in the past and who 100% is for a responsible strategy of arming Ukraine to kick out the Russians of all of Ukraine.
I think it's important to recognize that "the Russians advanced two kilometers" is not actually meaningful. There are many hundreds of kilometers between Pokrovsk and Kyiv.
I can't tell you which resource on which side will be critically attrited first and force a peace deal, but I can tell you which one it won't be: territory.
"as long as we in the west provide the tools" How much is Canada doing to help the Ukrainians?
Have we sent them any military equipment that they can use. Are we all talk and no action?
I think we are militarily all but irrelevant.....at home, and in support of Ukraine.
David your comment is unfortunately too true. I sometimes wonder if we couldn’t teach the Russians a thing or two when it comes to corruption and incompetence.
It has been written that Canada was infiltrated and propagandized by Soviets for decades as part of the Cold War, not to mention the obvious influence of the CCP since the end of the Cold War. We learned from the best when it comes to corruption and incompetence.
I think we are helping, if not through our military equipment (sad state that it is), but rather by by accomodating and settling a large number of Ukranian refugees - I know personally that this is happening in Alberta, where there is already a large multi-generational Ukranian diaspora population.
Correct, and on a very large scale, relatively speaking. The influx has made New Brunswick a very important part of this: https://theprairiemaritimer.com/miramichi-area-ukrainians/
The M777s and Excaliburs we sent in 2022 were a real game changer and benefit at the time. The few Leopard 2 tanks we sent are nice, but really a rounding error in terms of total number of AFU tanks. It seems that the Senators are performing well on the battle field.
This explains a bit: https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/issues_development-enjeux_developpement/response_conflict-reponse_conflits/crisis-crises/ukraine-dev.aspx?lang=eng
It’s too bad we didn’t take the gloves off prior to their first offensive.
Thanks for this. Continued justification for my micro subsidy. As a lifelong student of history and it's wars, this current iteration is both fascinating and depressing. History also tells me that Ukraine will triumph. They survived Stalin and in 10 years [Ras]Putin will be another really bad memory. I hope I'm around to see it.
Excellent update. Thank you, Adam.