Alex McColl: Canada needs two types of fighter jets
And the good news is, we already know what the other one should be. The Gripen is back, baby!
By: Alex McColl
Canada’s new Prime Minister Mark Carney didn’t waste any time standing up to Donald Trump’s illegal trade war. Within hours of being sworn in, Bill Blair — who was minister of national defence under Justin Trudeau and remains in the role under Carney — went on CBC’s Power & Politics to deliver a bombshell: Canada is going to re-examine our plan to purchase 88 American F-35A fighter jets.
This was in response to a question about if Canada would emulate Portugal, which announced that it was reconsidering a planned purchase of American F-35 jets: “We are also examining other alternatives, whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35s or if there might be alternatives. The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada, to properly support them and maintain them in Canada, and again we’re looking at how do we make investments in defence which also benefits Canadian workers, Canadian industry and supports a strong Canadian economy.”
When asked about a partial cut to the F-35 order, Blair responded: “The direction I’ve been given by the prime minister is go and look at all of our options to make sure that we make the right decision for Canada.” He noted that this didn’t mean the government planned to outright cancel the F-35 contract.
To anyone who followed Canada’s Future Fighter Capability Project (FFCP), the minister’s words signal that the government will be reevaluating Saab’s Gripen for Canada bid. The Saab Gripen-E was the runner-up and the only other jet in the FFCP contest that advanced to the final round, where it lost to the F-35.
The Gripen was also the only jet offering assembly in Canada; Canadian Gripens were to be made in Halifax in partnership with IMP Aerospace and Defence. Saab also offered full transfer of their intellectual property along with two new aerospace centres in Quebec for domestic component manufacturing, serviceability and upgrading in Canada, and full Canadian control of mission data.
It was as if Blair, during his CBC appearance, was reading from a list of all the benefits Saab offered Canada in 2021 that we don’t get with the F-35. A few years ago, when the decision was made, our relationship with the Americans was different and local support for spares and mission data sovereignty were not considered important. But now, with Trump unilaterally cutting off Ukraine, violating his own USMCA trade deal with illegal tariffs, and musing about using economic coercion to annex Canada; all bets are off.
While there is no such thing as a remote kill-switch, F-35 mission data files are controlled by the United States, and the F-35’s spare parts inventory management and just-in-time spare parts ordering systems run in the U.S. on American cloud servers.
In a phone interview with retired Vice Admiral Mark Norman, he explained that being cut off from replacement spare parts would become a problem but that “a loss of mission data planning is the worst part.” Adding, “significant aspects of the F-35’s advanced capabilities would be nullified [if we lost American support.]”
With the first 16 F-35s already on order, and the first four already in production on the assembly line in Texas, it’s likely too late to cancel the F-35 order without significant penalties.
This opens the door to a mixed fleet that includes a smaller number of expensive F-35A fighter-bombers and a larger number of affordable Gripen-E fighters. All of Canada’s G7 allies fly a mixed fleet of fighter jets today, some have 3 or more types. While it wouldn’t be easy, it is possible for a serious nation to fly a mixed fleet. Before the CF-18, Canada had 3 different types of armed fighter jets in service. The RCAF wanted to replace them all with expensive F-15 Eagles, but Pierre Trudeau made them settle for the cheaper F/A-18 Hornet. His government ordered 138 CF-18s, but that fleet shrank over time as a cost saving measure. The big cut happened during the CF-18 modernization under the Harper Government, when the hornet fleet shrank from 120 to 80 jets.
Living up to our commitments to our NATO allies is about more than just spending 2 percent of GDP, it also means living up to our mission requirements. Keeping our word means showing up, and 88 F-35As was never going to be enough jets for us to meet our commitments to NORAD and NATO at the same time. To do that, we need at least 120 jets. Reevaluating our options does not mean starting from scratch. To paraphrase minister Blair: A great deal of work was done during the FFCP evaluation. Two jets met the requirements: the expensive American F-35, and the Swedish Gripen-E with an offer to make them in Canada. Let’s just buy them both.
The first step is easy: Have Saab and IMP refresh their FFCP submission with new delivery deadlines and place an order for 88 Gripen-E jets. The second is to announce that we’re reducing the F-35 order down to 65 jets – the number that the Harper government planned to sole source but never ordered. Finally, we put our elbows up and announce that the F-35 order would be cut by 5 jets for every week the Trump administration maintains their threats of illegal tariffs, down to a minimum of 40 jets.
The F-35A has a total cost of ownership about double that of the Gripen-E, so we could afford to add two Gripens for every F-35 cancelled. A mixed fleet of about 120 Gripen-Es and 45 F-35As would help us get to 2% of GDP while reliably pulling our weight on NORAD and NATO missions.
This would also allow our pilots to focus their training on the missions best suited to their respective jets. The stealthy F-35A will be a good, albeit expensive, fighter-bomber once all the bugs are worked out of the block 4 software update. Canada could save money and logistics headaches by basing all the F-35 jets, and support infrastructure, at CFB Cold Lake. F-35 squadrons could then focus pilot training on stealth fighter-bomber, suppression of enemy air defence (SEAD), and stealth reconnaissance missions.
The affordable Gripen is faster, can fly far when equipped with drop tanks, and when armed with the European meteor missile is more than a match for anything in Russia’s inventory, including the new Su57. It was also designed for ease of maintenance at remote bases in Sweden’s Arctic and with the ability to land on short icy runways without ground-based arrestor equipment. It’s a perfect fit for Canada’s Arctic and will excel in NATO air policing missions. At one third of the cost per flight hour, the Gripen will also save us money relative to flying every low-risk mission with the F-35.
Critics of the F-35’s high cost per hour range from Elon Musk on the right to Democratic Congressman Adam Smith on the left. Former United States Air Force Chief of Staff said it best: “I want to moderate how much we’re using those aircraft. You don’t drive your Ferrari to work every day, you only drive it on Sundays. [The F-35A] is our ‘high end,’ we want to make sure we don’t use it all for the low-end fight… We don’t want to burn up capability now and wish we had it later.” In our conversation, Admiral Norman explained how getting to a mixed fleet would be hard but is possible. What we need is political leadership to overcome rigid procurement behaviour and institutional opposition. We need to look beyond the American military industrial complex.
Norman explained that his former peers in RCAF leadership have “a cultural bias
towards the USAF (United States Air Force)” and “senior officers are likely terrified by the perceived abandonment of their USAF relationships.” He described it as a “crisis of identity” and said they could resist a mixed fleet, but that we also need to adjust to the new reality under Trump and ask tough questions like: “how do we disentangle from US dependencies?”
This bias risks creating self-fulfilling cycles. We saw this on display a few weeks ago in the National Post when an unnamed senior RCAF officer argued that we had to keep the F-35 because it works with the Boeing P-8. The RCAF had previously argued that we had to sole source the Boeing P-8 because it works with the F-35.
Advanced sensors and networking between platforms are important, but they are not exclusive to the USA. Saab’s data link allows comparable sensor fusion and multi- platform networking between the Gripen-E and the Saab/Bombardier GlobalEye Airborne Radar Jet – the green aircraft is already made in Toronto and already under consideration for the RCAF’s new AEW aircraft. In addition to Gripens, we should tell the RCAF to stop even considering the Boeing E-7 AEW and sole source the Saab/Bombardier GlobalEye. The P-8; E-7 are based on the civilian Boeing 737NG. Have we already forgotten how in 2017 Boeing and President Trump tried to destroy our civilian aviation industry with nearly 300% tariffs on Bombardier C-Series jets, to protect the 737 from ‘unfair competition!?’ Norman warned about the need to move quickly, “time is like a fluid, it cannot be compressed.
We get ourselves into crises by putting off decisions. Defer and delay as a cost avoidance and risk mitigation strategy without understanding the problems this causes.” He also highlighted the great opportunity provided by Canada’s domestic aviation industry: “We have a great industry with great tech and creativity. We should be investing in our own capabilities.” Adding that buying American “black boxes without knowing what’s in it is a dilution of sovereignty” that leaves us dependent on American engineers.
He concluded: “We need to stop behaving as consumers of other people’s
stuff and seriously consider how to have a viable industry for what’s
important, and we absolutely need sovereign control over certain key
capabilities.”
Two weeks ago, I asked Saab Canada for a comment about all the recent commentary on the Saab Gripen Saab/Bombardier GlobalEye AEW aircraft, I received a written statement: “Saab remains ready to support the Canadian Armed Forces with our full portfolio of products and services, as we have done for over 35 years.” Shortly after Blair made his comments on CBC, I reached out again to see if Saab had anything to add. Simon Carroll, President of Saab Canada, replied with a written statement: “Saab is always willing to discuss offering our Gripen E fighter aircraft to nations seeking a cutting edge multi-role air combat system.”
It’s time for Canada to expand our military while also standing up to Trump. We should immediately order Canadian made Gripen fighter jets and GlobalEye AEW aircraft.
Alex McColl has a Master of Public Policy degree from the University of Calgary, where he wrote his capstone thesis, CF-39 Arrow II: A Swedish Solution to the CF-18 Replacement Problem, on military procurement.
The Line is entirely reader and advertiser funded — no federal subsidy for us! If you value our work, have already subscribed, and still worry about what will happen when the conventional media finishes collapsing, please make a donation today.
The Line is Canada’s last, best hope for irreverent commentary. We reject bullshit. We love lively writing. Please consider supporting us by subscribing. Follow us on Twitter @the_lineca. Fight with us on Facebook. Pitch us something: lineeditor@protonmail.com
I will believe it when I see actual action. This current government (and a few before) have a history of announcements and equate that to action, where there is very little if any actual movement. It’s all the same crew so I have my doubts.
If Canada could only stop tying both its shoes together we would actually be able to walk the walk instead of just talking the talk. One thing Canada can always be counted on is to do the wrong thing for political reasons... I can't see that changing anytime soon. Canada's motto should be: "We dither, the world passes us by".