By: Andrew MacDougall
Recent news prompted a thought: What if Mark Carney is a dog? And Canada is the bus he’s finally managed to catch? A recent (and rather fascinating) profile of Carney by long-time Ottawa hand Stephen Maher catalogued a procession of people describing how being prime minister was always in Carney’s sights. Less remarked is just what, exactly, Carney expected to do when he got there.
It’s a bad time for there to be any ambiguity on that score, because it’s been a tough week for Canada. Stellantis, the car conglomerate that absorbed the remains of Jeep/Chrysler in 2021, announced it is moving production from its Brampton plant across the border to escape Donald J. Trump’s tariff wall. The move appeared to catch Canadian politicians by surprise, given how Industry Minister Mélanie Joly reached for the (impotent) threat of a lawsuit and Ontario Premier Doug Ford tipped a Jeep upside down at a podium until all of its oil had drizzled onto what was once hallowed manufacturing ground.
Meanwhile, in Egypt, Prime Minister Mark Carney served as fart-catcher for Trump as the American president triumphantly declared “peace in the Middle East” at a hastily-arranged “summit” in Sharm al-Sheikh, an actual beach resort, as Gaza, Trump’s putative beach resort, lay in ruins, with Hamas militias roaming the devastated crowds picking off any Palestinians they deemed unhelpful to the cause. And what was Canada’s contribution to any of it? Zero, as far as anyone can tell, not that anyone was there to tell, seeing as Carney blew off the Parliamentary Press Gallery, opting for private jet travel to the beach instead.
Oh, and Carney’s government is set to deliver its first budget — Canada’s first in 20 months — in a matter of weeks. And while the jumped-up interim Parliamentary Budget Officer might have been too quick to declare Canada at a fiscal “precipice,” the National Bank of Canada is predicting a stonking $100-billion deficit. A hundred fucking billion dollars? Good lord, that’s serious money, almost enough for two steaks and a bit of veg at the local Loblaws.
Again, it’s been a tough week.
It’s hard to remember how, just 10 short years ago, Canada was “back” after the presumed decade of darkness that was meant to be the Stephen Harper era. Remember when Justin Trudeau was feted for keeping Harper’s climate targets in Paris and celebrated worldwide months later for being the anti-Trump? Yeah, those were good times. And while Trudeau can’t be blamed for COVID or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he can be blamed for Canada’s suboptimal response and recovery from both. Love him or hate him, Harper and his cabinet dealt with the global financial crisis and its aftermath much better than Trudeau and his team played their hand.
Not that Trudeau cares. Last week he was spotted on a yacht snogging the pop star Katy Perry. And fair play to him. Who doesn’t love it when two influencers find love? But while the (potential) union is an algorithm-tickler and decidedly on the nose, it does nothing to improve Canada’s image or position. Just like Perry left music in a worse place than when she found it, Trudeau’s damage to Canada has left Carney in a significant hole.
This brings us back to where we started — this is where we are, Carney wanted the job of being responsible for it all, and won it, fairly. So now what does he want to do with it?
If you had asked most people before Carney accepted the job, they would have said “climate” and “green finance.” But Canada’s consumer-facing carbon tax was quickly dialled down to naught under Carney and the country is apparently about to launch a new climate change “vision” that will deprioritize its commitments to reduce domestic emissions. In their place will come a plan to grasp the transition to low-carbon energy. Done properly, this can be consistent with Carney’s (608-page) Values on climate, but the needle that will need to be threaded is narrowing every day.
Speaking of which, our good friends in China are currently ransoming the Canadian canola industry in an attempt to force us to drop our tariffs on their EV industry (which China dominates). With the Stellantises of the world apparently in the past, Canada also risks losing out on auto manufacturing’s future. Carney’s plan on that low-carbon transition had better be a doozy.
Indeed, the entire upcoming budget needs to be an all-timer. Carney has to put Canada’s finances on a sustainable path, and he must do it without knowing what the future trading relationship with the U.S. will be, while fighting off China, rebuilding the military, knocking up a record number of new homes, and firing a whack of civil servants to find his “operational” savings. You want needles? That’s a hell of a fucking needle. No wonder Carney sent Anita Anand to India to swallow Canada’s position on Narendra Modi whole while he takes monthly trips to Europe. The country needs friends, and quickly.
The current situation can’t be what Carney dreamed of when dreaming of 24 Sussex for all of those years. The man didn’t even get the home, for God’s sake. He has to camp out in Rideau Cottage. Let’s hope his new surroundings provide inspiration; charting a path out of Canada’s collective mess would tax God Himself and a cabinet of saints. And so it’s unfortunate that the Carney crew is short of apostles (if not disciples).
Again, this isn’t Carney’s fault; the man has to work with the tools he is given. Godspeed, Mr. Carney.
Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy and former head of communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
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Losing the last election may turn out to have been a lucky break for Poilievre and the Conservatives. Carney's getting stuck grappling with the economic mess after Trudeau's decade in power. He's fairly competent, so it's likely he'll make some headway on the clean-up. However, he's also not going to get to do the fun, flashy stuff that typically earns politicians votes and probably will have to make some hard decisions that also won't be popular.
If the Conservatives succeed in winning the next election, the result will be that they won't be left holding the bag for the failings of the Trudeau era while the Liberals take easy (but hypocritical) shots at them for having to do the unpleasant work of fixing them. Having to clean up a Liberal mess hobbled Diefenbaker, Clark, and Mulroney.
He may have caught the bus but Canadians are firmly under its wheels.