Andrew MacDougall: Five lessons for Poilievre (and yes, he should stay on)
The sad fact (for Conservatives) is that Liberals can do stuff like pop a new head on a rotting corpse and win.
By: Andrew MacDougall
Sometimes politics is a sonofabitch.
Just ask Pierre Poilievre. The one-time mega-majority certainty is now the former MP for Carleton, and reportedly making calls to head off any potential caucus coup. The Conservative party he leads is, once again, colonizing the opposition benches. Boring boomer Mark Carney remains the prime minister. Boot, meet balls.
As ever when taking an “L,” the key will be to draw the correct lessons. And while some of these lessons will only reveal themselves with time (and a closer parsing of the results), some are apparent now.
Lesson #1: You have to answer the (electoral) question you’re being asked, not the one you would rather be asked.
It was no secret the Tories wanted to make this campaign about carbon taxes and Justin Trudeau’s abysmal record. They had studied hard and were going to ace that mother-effing test. Here, Poilievre was Mensa. But it was equally no secret this campaign was never going to be about those items once Trudeau fucked off to Canadian Tire and Donald Trump started fucking around with Canadian sovereignty. Yes, talk about cost of living, homes, crime, yadda yadda — but only after you tell Trump and his coterie of oddballs and allsorts to do one. If Canadians didn’t hear the Trump bits, their ears were always going to close to the other stuff.
Sure, bemoan Doug Ford and Kory Teneycke for sticking their noses into the federal campaign and taking potshots. And fuck that nice fellow Tim Houston and his lovely province, too, I suppose. It might make you feel better, but it doesn’t make them wrong.
Which brings us to the next lesson…
Lesson #2: You don’t have to be an asshole to be a successful Conservative politician.
Cards on the table. Doug Ford is not my cup of tea. For the record, I like my democracy with a little less political gangsterism. But he’s got a “man of the people” shtick that people quite like. What’s more, he literally showed you the way to win as a Conservative in the face of Trump’s assault on Canada. Puff out your chest, tell Trump and his mate Howie Lutnick to smarten up or you’ll take away their energy. Yes, that’s gangsterism, but it’s gangsterism in the service of the country and, more importantly, winning votes.
And you know what? That Houston fella managed to go viral without eating an apple and being snotty to someone trying (however poorly) to do their job. It’s almost like honey can work, that life doesn’t have to be an endless serving of vinegar.
Lesson #3: The Conservative coalition must be broader than the Liberals’ in order to triumph.
Conservatives will take comfort that Poilievre outperformed even Stephen Harper’s 2011 majority win. They will feel good that they outpolled Ford in Ontario. But they still lost. And yes, this is, in part, due to the fact that Jagmeet Singh was historically useless. As good as the Ontario result was for the Conservatives — and it was great — it would have been spectacular had Jagmeet been able to fog up a mirror.
The sad fact (for Conservatives) is that Liberals can do stuff like pop a new head on a rotting corpse and win. The Conservatives can’t. Such is the reality of the efficiency and location of their vote. And so, yeah, people like Doug Ford and Tim Houston (and the people they represent) might bear listening to every once in a while.
Lesson #4: And yet, the Conservative voter coalition got bigger!
Finally, some good news! The Conservative voter coalition got bigger during this federal election cycle. More young people voted Conservative. More unionized workers in places like southwestern Ontario voted Conservative. The vote percentage in Quebec was the best the party has received in its modern iteration. That the election was this close despite the antics of Dickhead Donald is an achievement.
More importantly, the expanding Conservative voter coalition — if maintained — will provide a more reliable platform for growth than the one that returned Mark Carney to power. Carney benefitted from a mass exodus of NDP, Bloc and boomer voters to the Liberal party. But the NDP will (presumably) return once someone non-useless takes the leadership. The boomers aren’t a growth cohort. And then there’s Carney, who will have to make some tough decisions in government, decisions that are as likely to disappoint as they are to please, given his lacklustre platform.
Lesson #5: The message (bar Trump) was good — and Trump will (eventually) die.
The Conservatives now face a task of evolution, not revolution. The issues — cost of living, crime, homes, the promise of Canada — are the right issues. The Liberals’ plans to address them are also either thin or misguided. And they are likely to be blown off course by the winds from the south. Thankfully, Trump and his chaos will not last forever, hopefully not beyond the midterms in 2026, which is when Canadians could go back to the polls in this upcoming minority Parliament.
Meanwhile, Poilievre is a leader who can grow from this loss; he should absolutely stay on and deserves another chance. But he will have to put some honey into his vinegar. He will have to be less of a surly bastard. The persona that electrifies the core support is not the right persona for those who remain to be persuaded. Vamping for the mobs on social media should be supplemented by reasoned argument through the curated channels of the mainstream press. If the Conservatives are convinced they are right on the merits of the issues, they should make that case everywhere, not only the places they feel comfortable.
Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy and former head of communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
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This is an excellent summary. I am a swing voter. More Progressive Conservative, though, so I weigh my options with the CPC.
In terms of the key issues you listed (housing, pipelines, crime, economy), the CPC platform spoke to me. But Pollievre and team did a horrific job communicating. I signed up for their emails, and left, tired of the endless "Axe the Tax" and similar simplistic repetitious slogans. Plus, I really hate being called a "patriot." It feels un-Canadian (or overly-American).
Slogans are okay...just temper them. Use your words. Tell me what you're going to do about it, and convince me your plan is right. Don't tell me how bad my life is all the time. If it doesn't resonate with my reality, you've lost me and my vote.
Stick to fiscal policies, drop the identity politics. At every stage, Pierre's rage against the media, defunding the CBC, anti-woke messaging just pushed him closer to Trump. Sure it wasn't a big part of the campaign, but it was enough. Drop it for now, and focus on the big things that need to be fixed. That will get you a bigger tent.
Allow more nuance. If everything is black and white, my reaction to your message will be binary as well. The Liberals didn't totally cause the economic uncertainty, and oddly enough it seems Trump may be following their game (driving dollar down, making exports more attractive). Don't tell me why their plan is bad, tell me why yours is better and how it will work.
I believe Carney is a one-term politician. He's here to guide us through the Trump years. Likely will get a lot of blowback for his handling - good or bad. In my ideal world, the CPC supports the good policies the Liberals come out with, and keep a close eye on any tomfoolery. Come out looking like leaders, ready to take Canada to the next level.
The last paragraph of this piece is spot-on advice, but I have to say that I am not at all confident that Poilievre will, or even can, take it. He's so good at vamping for the mobs on social media because he gives off more than a small aroma of authoritarianism, and it's populist authoritarianism that appeals to that base. (It's also why I, as a Burkean conservative, wouldn't ever support him.) The problem is that authoritarianism is a deeply wired personality trait. I just don't think he's the person who can broaden his appeal to bring on board conservatives and moderates who are leery of authoritarianism.