Andrew MacDougall: Sturgeon goes fishing
The sudden departure of Scotland's most popular politician could spell a serious shift in politics across the pond.
By: Andrew MacDougall
Although it may seem rude to talk about a political earthquake when so many in Turkey and Syria now lie dead and buried under the rubble of the real-life equivalent, but Nicola Sturgeon’s shock resignation as Scotland’s First Minister truly is a seismic event.
Last week, Scotland’s most popular politician suddenly announced that she would retire. While Sturgeon’s popularity has dipped in recent days, she remains, by a long way, the most recognized and respected politician in the land. And she is leaving absent any obvious firing offense, nor any looming electoral deadline.
More importantly, Sturgeon is leaving without her raison d’être — Scottish independence — fulfilled, with the next election having already been framed as an (unofficial) referendum on that most cherished of prizes for any leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party. That Sturgeon would choose this moment to exit has prompted a flurry of speculation.
To Sturgeon’s credit, she was admirably clear with her reasons during the press conference announcing her decision to stand aside. She decried the “brutality” and “intensity” of modern political life, stating the job took everything she could give and that, like Jacinda Arden before her, she had come to the realization she didn’t quite have enough left to get independence over the line.
On that front, Sturgeon also said it would be unfair on her colleagues and her party to have her views on independence — and how best to achieve it — bind them if she no longer had the will or energy to contest the next election. And fair enough. Sturgeon has been First Minister for eight years, and was number two to former First Minister Alex Salmond for the eight years prior to that, having assumed the leadership after Salmond’s failed push for Scotland’s independence in the 2014 referendum.
And yet, with support for Scottish independence still fairly strong — a poll taken in late January had it at 52 per cent, an eight-point gap over the forces of unity — it still seems a strange time for someone whose entire life’s work has been ditching the UK to ditch the most powerful post to help usher it along.
So, what gives?
Well, for one thing, Sturgeon’s approval ratings. In her press conference, she admitted she had become a marmite figure during her time in office, loathed and loved in equal measure. Sturgeon certainly never shied away from a fight, and loved to pick her fair share too. And while she delighted in painting Scotland as a more tolerant and progressive alternative to nasty Tory England, her recent full-throated support for trans rights put her on a collision course with the UK government over the legality of Scottish law, while also leading her into a bit of a muddle with her own supporters. In particular, her inability to articulate and defend her government’s inconsistent policy on trans prisoners in the Scottish penal system dented the public’s view of her competence. Typically a rock solid media performer, an interview of Sturgeon dissembling and stumbling over her answers on trans prisoners quickly went viral.
Even Sturgeon’s trusty trump card — independence — is no longer necessarily a powerful one in the SNP’s hand, thanks to the recent UK Supreme Court decision confirming that a second Scottish independence referendum does indeed, as the law clearly states, require the approval of the UK parliament to proceed. It was this ruling that forced Sturgeon into declaring the next Scottish election a ‘de facto’ referendum, an appointment she no longer has the energy to keep.
With independence slipping further over the horizon, Sturgeon perhaps knew the focus would soon return to the more quotidian aspects of governing. Here, the Sturgeon/SNP record leaves a lot to be desired. Life expectancy in Scotland is down. Drug-related deaths are up. The poverty-related attainment gap is widening, and emergency room waiting times are shooting up, too. In many respects, Scotland is not a healthy place, something that would not be improved if the country was also forced to deal with the severe economic dislocation that would follow an exit from the United Kingdom.
Seen from this angle, Sturgeon’s sudden retirement begins to make a lot more sense. With storm clouds ahead and no sunshine on the horizon, a veteran politician decided it was time to let someone else take the blows. Who that is, nobody yet knows. One thing we do know is that Sturgeon has not nurtured a successor, which means all could soon be to play for in Scotland in a way it hasn’t been for a generation.
Which brings us back to earthquakes.
The Sturgeon resignation matters in Scotland, yes, but it matters more in England. One of the biggest obstacles to a Labour renaissance in Westminster is the lack of a clear path to victory outside of England’s major urban centres and university towns. Like the vaunted former ‘Red Wall’ across the North of England, Scotland used to be a Labour stronghold — until the beast of Scottish independence began to rear its head in the mid-noughties.
But now that the biggest beast of Scottish independence has chosen to slay herself, Labour has a chance to re-establish itself north of Hadrian’s Wall and turn its current 24-point poll lead over Rishi Sunak’s Tories into a more plausible hammerlock over the UK-wide legislature, making a different future for the union not just a matter of conjecture, but a very real possibility.
With Westminster firmly under his control and a general public both tired of Tory misrule and increasingly sour on the Brexit settlement, it’s not hard to imagine Labour leader Keil Starmer leading a renewed discussion over Brexit and the balance of its costs and opportunities.
And that would be seismic, indeed.
Andrew MacDougall is a director at Trafalgar Strategy and former head of communications to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
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