Appreciate the mention of recency bias and will add regional bias. In my case I'm near Hamilton, with a 1 term PC incumbent where Ted McMeekin previously served as a cabinet minister for over a decade (4 elections). Yet the polls have us as a "safe" PC hold and NDP in second. Why? 2018 Liberal collapse, and the regional bias toward Hamilton NDP strongholds. I'm hoping and have some rational basis to expect a surprise locally.
Final election thoughts:
I was enraged at the PC pandemic handling and it still simmers. Others do not feel the same way and I respect but do not understand that. I spent the early days in April 2020 gathering daily fatality, infection and staffing data by phone from retirement home managers. Their despair stuck with me. It's a Lest we Forget situation for me.
Although the electioneering has been lacklustre, I don’t think anyone should be calling the results yet. If people are as tired as I am, just navigating through the mishmash of Covid rules/non-rules on a daily basis, maybe the numbers who do not add voting to their to-do list will make a difference. We are still not ok as far as the pandemic is concerned. Ford has a lot to answer for.
I lost a young family member to cancer during Covid. In the final weeks we couldn’t get any one to come in and care for them. Many people have been traumatized by this pandemic. Will this kind of experience be a factor?
My takeaway: Del Duca and the Liberals couldn't convince Ontarians that they were a better alternative to a gaffe-prone incumbent. There seemed to be an appetite for an alternative amongst a big chunk of the electorate (including me!) yet the Libs failed to inspire.
I'm not sure why, though. They seemed to run a competent campaign. But, my own reaction was that Del Duca just doesn't have the ability to be 'relatable' in the same way both Ford and Horwath can. On the debate stage, he capably hit his talking points and did everything 'right' and -- as primed as I was to listen -- he just didn't move me on a gut level. And that's where most voters are swayed.
But, the campaign didn't convince me either. One of the things I hate about the Ford government was the gimmicky promises 'buck a beer', a new slogan for Ontario -- highly visible but pointless exercises. What I wanted to see was seriousness and focus on things that matter. But, we get 'buck a ride' transit -- but only for a few years. If successful, what happens? We build back ridership then pull out provincial funding? It feels like a Liberal mirror of the Ford approach, which I found off-putting. Just promise stable funding for transit!
For me, the consistent lack of competence of the Ford government was the defining issue of the election. But, both the Libs and NDP didn't seem to want to hammer on it -- they ran this election as if the main issue was policy vision. It made me feel like they didn't get it; I was looking for somebody to channel my indignation that we had a government that, time and time again either pursued pointless initiatives nobody wanted or mucked up stuff that matters. The one moment that Del Duca was effective in the debate was when Ford went 'poor me' in terms of being the Premier duing the pandemic and Del Duca replied something to the effect that it was the job he not only actively pursued -- but was pursuing again. More of that would have shown me that either Horwath or Del Duca understood that what the moment calls for is not some new policy initiative -- it's just the promise of a government that can consistently get stuff done.
I think Ford will wind up with a majority and I don't think his government deserves the mandate. But neither the NDP or Liberals seemed to grasp that there was an appetite for a focused, serious government that could actually deliver on its (ideally smaller number) of promises. Instead we have a buffet of promises that seem unaffordable and unsustainable that transparently are aimed at buying votes from various constituencies. If I really wanted that, I'd vote Ford -- which apparently most Ontarians will. Disappointing.
I lost interest when it became apparent that both the Cons and NDP have exactly the same house building strategy: double the completions by the end of this year from 70k to 150k. Sounds like the plan was made to fail all along. Both are either lying now or they’ve been lying until now.
The only thing I can figure, is that Ford's flips during the pandemic convinced voters that he's their bitch, willing to toss his base if their no-restrictions beliefs aren't popular. (Kenney, the reverse.)
Appreciate the mention of recency bias and will add regional bias. In my case I'm near Hamilton, with a 1 term PC incumbent where Ted McMeekin previously served as a cabinet minister for over a decade (4 elections). Yet the polls have us as a "safe" PC hold and NDP in second. Why? 2018 Liberal collapse, and the regional bias toward Hamilton NDP strongholds. I'm hoping and have some rational basis to expect a surprise locally.
Final election thoughts:
I was enraged at the PC pandemic handling and it still simmers. Others do not feel the same way and I respect but do not understand that. I spent the early days in April 2020 gathering daily fatality, infection and staffing data by phone from retirement home managers. Their despair stuck with me. It's a Lest we Forget situation for me.
Although the electioneering has been lacklustre, I don’t think anyone should be calling the results yet. If people are as tired as I am, just navigating through the mishmash of Covid rules/non-rules on a daily basis, maybe the numbers who do not add voting to their to-do list will make a difference. We are still not ok as far as the pandemic is concerned. Ford has a lot to answer for.
I lost a young family member to cancer during Covid. In the final weeks we couldn’t get any one to come in and care for them. Many people have been traumatized by this pandemic. Will this kind of experience be a factor?
My takeaway: Del Duca and the Liberals couldn't convince Ontarians that they were a better alternative to a gaffe-prone incumbent. There seemed to be an appetite for an alternative amongst a big chunk of the electorate (including me!) yet the Libs failed to inspire.
I'm not sure why, though. They seemed to run a competent campaign. But, my own reaction was that Del Duca just doesn't have the ability to be 'relatable' in the same way both Ford and Horwath can. On the debate stage, he capably hit his talking points and did everything 'right' and -- as primed as I was to listen -- he just didn't move me on a gut level. And that's where most voters are swayed.
But, the campaign didn't convince me either. One of the things I hate about the Ford government was the gimmicky promises 'buck a beer', a new slogan for Ontario -- highly visible but pointless exercises. What I wanted to see was seriousness and focus on things that matter. But, we get 'buck a ride' transit -- but only for a few years. If successful, what happens? We build back ridership then pull out provincial funding? It feels like a Liberal mirror of the Ford approach, which I found off-putting. Just promise stable funding for transit!
For me, the consistent lack of competence of the Ford government was the defining issue of the election. But, both the Libs and NDP didn't seem to want to hammer on it -- they ran this election as if the main issue was policy vision. It made me feel like they didn't get it; I was looking for somebody to channel my indignation that we had a government that, time and time again either pursued pointless initiatives nobody wanted or mucked up stuff that matters. The one moment that Del Duca was effective in the debate was when Ford went 'poor me' in terms of being the Premier duing the pandemic and Del Duca replied something to the effect that it was the job he not only actively pursued -- but was pursuing again. More of that would have shown me that either Horwath or Del Duca understood that what the moment calls for is not some new policy initiative -- it's just the promise of a government that can consistently get stuff done.
I think Ford will wind up with a majority and I don't think his government deserves the mandate. But neither the NDP or Liberals seemed to grasp that there was an appetite for a focused, serious government that could actually deliver on its (ideally smaller number) of promises. Instead we have a buffet of promises that seem unaffordable and unsustainable that transparently are aimed at buying votes from various constituencies. If I really wanted that, I'd vote Ford -- which apparently most Ontarians will. Disappointing.
I lost interest when it became apparent that both the Cons and NDP have exactly the same house building strategy: double the completions by the end of this year from 70k to 150k. Sounds like the plan was made to fail all along. Both are either lying now or they’ve been lying until now.
The only thing I can figure, is that Ford's flips during the pandemic convinced voters that he's their bitch, willing to toss his base if their no-restrictions beliefs aren't popular. (Kenney, the reverse.)
I, and a number of twitter users,say they have not recieved a voting card. That might translate to an even lower turnout
Wishful thinking