51 Comments
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gs's avatar

It continues to amaze me, all the free advice Poilievre gets from people who don't want him to succeed.

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KRM's avatar

Just look at how well O'Toole did listening to those sorts of people...

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Mark F's avatar

O’Toole needed to know the answer about gun policy before he was asked the question. He didn’t, he dithered, and he flip flopped.

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Penny Leifson's avatar

Precisely! How much support have these people ever shown Pierre Poilievre?

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Stephen Gordon's avatar

I don't understand this. This is from tweet I posted in *2020* and it still holds today :

"CPC strategists seem to think that the marginal/median Canadian voter is a middle-aged white Albertan man who works in the oil patch and is consumed with an inchoate hatred of Justin Trudeau, and that they need to persuade him to vote Conservative"

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KRM's avatar
Mar 31Edited

There's something admirable about a campaign that insists on being laser focused on real issues and a leader who constitutionally rejects saying anything he doesn't actually believe in, even when the public is screaming to feel the feels.

On one level the refusal to pivot to the world of fearmongering bullshit and performative anti-Americanism makes Poilievre more endearing. I'm starting to suspect that the guy has a lot of trouble lying. Think about it - for all the criticisms levied against the Conservative leader, has he ever been caught lying about anything? Even something small?

Contrast this with the professional actor we had playing PM for 9 years, able to recite absolute nonsense with utmost sincerity, or the slick investment banker we brought in now, only to start to slowly remember why we don't like investment bankers. Could it be that for all his likeability issues and gruff demeanour, Poilievre might actually be the real deal?

The CPC might absolutely lose on this, don't get me wrong. But man, it's weirdly refreshing to see it tried.

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Darcy Hickson's avatar

I follow the premise being presented, but it brings to mind just how shallow our general election campaigns really are.

Sometimes people need to hear things that they don’t want to hear. Mr. Tumilty sees benefit in shaping a message that people want to hear, which no doubt wins many elections but along with that comes a ton of buyer’s remorse.

Many of our current problems (less D. Trump) can be laid right at the feet of the Trudeau Government and many of the central planners and Liberals running for office have deep ties and affinity to that agenda. Including Mr. Carney, he of years long advisory status and Liberal insider.

I think that Canadians need to think about that, even though the Liberals are leaning hard into patriotism and tariff wars to distract voters from these issues and in the short term it’s working. It may well lead to a stunning Liberal majority government, but if it turns out badly for voters I hope that the Conservatives can hold their heads high and be able to say “We told you so”.

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Eric Shields's avatar

Everything that happened prior to Trump's inauguration is fast becoming ancient history. There has, and continues to be, a seismic shift in the way the world works. People in general, and not just politicians, need to grasp the enormity of this. Failure to do so will just result in failure and subsequent weeping & knashing of teeth.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

Exactly this. That era is over.

Poilievre was the perfect foil for Biden and Trudeau. As the polls showed six months ago.

O’Toole would be far better placed against Trump and Carney.

Life comes at you fast.

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PT's avatar

Darcy you make an excellent point about people sometimes needing to hear what they don't want to hear. The problem is that The Conservatives (and the Liberals) have not told us what we don't want to hear. Both parties have doled out tax breaks and spending plans designed to garner votes, not make the country stronger. A message of what we need to hear but don't want to hear would go something like this:

"The country is broke, our military is not capable of defending us and the leader of the strongest military in the world, right next door to us, is musing about annexation and whether nor not he needs to use military force. We have relied on the close proximity and accommodating nature of the largest consumer market in the world to drive our economy and that too is about to end. Business investment is frozen and we run a large risk of capital (and the jobs that go with it) fleeing the country. There is no room for tax cuts unless they help drive economic performance or investment into Canada. There is no room for spending increases unless they enhance our security or build our economic infrastructure. Many laws that have been put in place over the past 10 years, with the stated goal of increasing equity, or protecting our environment, or making Canada a more just country will have to get repealed, if they prevent us from building our economy or increasing our security."

That is a message I would not want to hear. I like some of those laws, I like paying lower taxes, and I like more social programs, regardless of whether they help me or help my neighbours. But we all need to to hear this message and we need at least one of the two parties to show some courage and deliver it.

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Richard Gimblett's avatar

And the previous cabal left the country in poor economic and political shape to tackle the present threat. And I don’t see the same gang under Carney being up to digging us out of it.

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KRM's avatar

Polls will go back to where they were in 2024 in six months, mark my words.

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NotoriousSceptic's avatar

That will be too late. Bye Canada.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

No, being able to hold your head high and say “we told you so” ain’t shit. You have to win.

The CPC is already talking like the Dems in the US — wallowing in defeat and saying “if only the voters were smarter / less racist / less sexist”. If you’re talking like that, you’re losing.

You have to actually win. You have to have the right combination of policies and leadership to win, or the other side gets to set the laws and lead foreign policy.

It’s week 2. CPC partisans online appear to have no fight in them. Get out there and win this if you want no more LPC!

Go hard against Trump and hard against MAGA and lay out a patriotic path to Canadian sovereignty. You should be able to win this!

(Signed, an LPC voter)

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Marcel's avatar

If the Liberals win a majority, the Conservatives will be too busy with their civil war to worry about telling the voters anything. Heck, they've already started!

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sji's avatar

Democracy = what the people want to hear? Not a great look telling Canadians they're idiots cause your side lost. I've seen it before in the sandbox.

PP/Byrne have made their play and won't change. If the CPC doesn't win, their CPC lives are probably over and some folks in the party will have to decide if they REALLY want a big tent, or if they still want to TELL people they want a big tent, when they don't.

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Darcy Hickson's avatar

I guess you and I have to factor in how the Liberals have cleverly shaped the ballot question. Because we haven’t had a functioning Parliament for months, the Liberals have had an open platform for a non stop infomercial, and torquing the Trump menace to their benefit. Good for them. But surely we can agree that this suits their own campaign agenda because they are very vulnerable because of the change sentiment (54% of voters) and also vulnerable because of their own terrible record in governing.

The Conservatives don’t want to fight on the Liberals terms. I don’t blame them, and recent polling trends indicate that the spike in Liberal support is levelling off. It’s a long way to Tipperary.

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sji's avatar

Whether the Conservatives want to fight on the Liberals terms is secondary to winning, maybe? Or being responsive? Or being perceived to be responsive?

Also, I think orange baby shaped the ballot question just a lil bit.

We'll know soon if it was the right strategy. My opinion is it is not the right strategy and CPC will win fewer seats because of it, and that's a shame.

It's 28 days to Tipperary, lol.... 4 weeks.

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Steve Knechtel's avatar

Well that was mildly entertaining. Got to love it when professional punditry opines on the 'ballot question'. The 'question' ,in my unprofessional opinion, for Conservatives and a lot more thinking Canadians includiñg Libs & Dippers has always been the need for a fucking CHANGE. Carney,Butts, Telford, 'little,' Marco ad nauseum are all still there hiding in plain site. If voters can't see that then they are a lot dumber than I think they are. You can't fool all the people all the time so in 4 weeks we will find out.May the deity of your choice guide us all because if we get it wrong...again , this country is well and truly fucked, Trump notwithstanding.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

I posted this below but it’s relevant here too.

As the famous Simpsons meme goes: “Am I out of touch? No, no, it’s the children who are wrong…”

When you’re resorting to saying “if only the voters were smarter”, you’re losing. This is what the Dems in the US are currently saying, too. They too are losing.

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Steve Knechtel's avatar

Wasn't aware that's what I was 'resorting' to but hey, love the Simpsons. I believe I indicated that voters are in fact a lot smarter than some people give them credit.

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Kevin Scott's avatar

Day 1 of the second week. There is nothing wrong with how the first week went. He is growing and Carney's bubble wrap is becoming popped. Wait until the debates. Carney has a temper akin to Torts.

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Merlin M's avatar

Love it. Great comparison.

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terry cunningham's avatar

Does anyone ever watch the debates?

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Wesley Burton's avatar

The debates are what sunk Turner and dealt the final death blow to Ignatieff.

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John Bower's avatar

Mr. Tumility, what advice would you give to the LPC and Carney then? You can criticize the CPC campaign, along with many others I might add, but you cannot deny that the message has been consistent and clear - cut taxes, cut red tape, encourage and fast track industrial development, cut immigration, restore law and order, get oil to tide water and get this economy running again. The LPC seems to think that Canadians will accept that they have turned 180 degrees with not a word about being wrong for the last ten years - if that doesn't show complete contempt for the voters I don't know what does.

I find it hard to believe that Canadians are more concerned about the President than they are about how to stretch the paycheque to the end of the month. Already banks are issuing warnings about not renewing mortgages for those in industry subject to tariffs. Does everyone simply ignore the fact that Canada has not protected its borders and, in fact, opened the flood gates to immigration far outstretching our ability to accept the people - they are people remember! The USA recognizes that we are a weak partner who cannot protect its borders and is in a weakened financial position. Concern about drugs going to the US is a concern but so is the 'Vancouver model of drug money laundering' that we have done precious little to eradicate.

The last ten years of LPC rule have, indeed, 'broken' this country and if the only way of reminding Canadians of the damage done is to constantly remind us then that is what needs to be done - apparently the memory bank for many voters - I'm looking at you Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes - has been wiped clean somehow if they are prepared to vote red again.

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A Canuck's avatar

Thank you for this op-ed and analysis.

I certainly take your point about the Poilievre/Byrne focus on winning votes from their base (in essence, voters who already support the Conservative Party).

What I wonder about is whether the Conservatives are counting on various Liberal Party faux pas to help dig them out of the hole they are in at present?

I refer in particular to the Liberal Party’s decision (Mark Carney’s decision, really) to “double-down” on its support for Paul Chiang.

You know, the candidate whose egregious-but riding- and community-specific foul up—his “joke” in January regarding the illegal rendition to Hong Kong (for imprisonment) of a Conservative Party candidate—stirred up considerable (and well-justified) controversy when the English-language news media picked up on it last week.

Will multiple occurrences of that sort of Liberal Party “kryptonite” be sufficient to help the Conservatives turn things around?

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John's avatar

More Kryptonite. Are the Chinese “police stations” in Toronto and Montreal (and Vancouver?) still around reminding new Chinese immigrants of how their relatives back home are getting along?

Also, any financial connections between Brookfield Asset Management and the Trump family real estate etc empire?

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A Canuck's avatar

According to news reporting, those "police stations" were shut down after the Spanish human rights group, Safeguard Defenders, published reporting in 2022 about their presence here.

QUOTE

[During testimony presented to a Parliamentary Committee in October 2022, Laura] Harth [of Human Rights Defenders] contended that Canada, like other democracies, [had] for far too long ignored the issue of transnational oppression since Xi Jinping came to power, allowing operations such as the overseas police service stations to grow. However, she highlighted that the RCMP’s response to those stations “has definitely been among the best in democracies across the world.”23

To date, no individuals have been arrested or had their diplomatic credentials removed in relation to the overseas police service stations. The then Commissioner of the RCMP noted that these types of investigations are normally “very lengthy.”

END QUOTE

Among other things, witnesses who testified during the committee hearings suggested the establishment of a foreign agents registry in Canada. On 20 June 2024, the new Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act received Royal Assent.

C.f. THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY’S OVERSEAS POLICE SERVICE STATIONS: Interim Report of the Special Committee on the Canada–People’s Republic of China Relationship, Ken Hardie (Chair), House of Commons, November 2023, 44th Parliament, First Session, https://publications.gc.ca/collections/collection_2023/parl/xc2-441/XC2-441-1-1-4-eng.pdf

C.f. STATUTES OF CANADA 2024, CHAPTER 16, An Act respecting countering foreign interference, First Session, Forty-fourth Parliament, 70-71 Elizabeth II – 1-2 Charles III, 2021-2022-2023-2024, Assented 20 June 2024, https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-70/royal-assent

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John's avatar

Thank you for clarifying the issue. Whether the Chinese influence on Canada in all areas will now go away will be an interesting area to discuss.

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Ian MacRae's avatar

The Cons target audience is Gen Y & Z. What message do they want? The polling suggests its cost of living.

Neither Carney nor PP can do much to stop Trump or defang his tarrifs. Its we Boomers who want Carney to protect their way of life, especially their house prices.

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Leslie MacMillan's avatar

I was advised many years ago not to regard my principal-residence house as part of my net worth. It provides a useful service and getting the mortgage paid off was a good thing, of course, but it shouldn’t be anyone’s retirement plan. Even if a gang of brigands seize it and its value falls to zero, we’d still make out OK. How many boomers can say that? You can see why they vote Liberal, the party that asks little of them.

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Britannicus's avatar

And Boomers vote. The politicians have got to get Millennials, X, Y & Z to the polling booths. Good luck with that!

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John's avatar

Good discussion. A few churchly analogies. Yes PP is spending too much time preaching to the choir. Yes the French usurper is gone like a used leaky condom that has spread S(ocialist)TD all over the country. PP now needs to do missionary work among the unenlightened undecided. And the entitled hard core worshipers of Baal north of the Ottawa river and on its south shore are not fertile soil for his message. But everywhere else is.

I spent about a year in total in Guatemala learning Spanish. Like Canada two generations ago it is a deeply religious country. One of the aspects that puzzled me initially was how many people professed a Christian faith in a formerly Catholic dominated country. The explanation came when I was told that at the end of the Christian services the attendees were given rice and beans to feed their families whereas the Catholic Churches only provided blessings. It seems to me that talking rice and beans (or by analogy, what’s left over after rent or mortgage payments) might be a topic for PP to address if he’s really interested in gaining power.

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Pat T's avatar

Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?

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Wesley Burton's avatar

Most said no during the Ontario election - made no difference.

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Mike Canary's avatar

I have volunteered for the Conservatives for the election, and I’m seeing and hearing a much different message from people throughout our riding, than this article. Mind you - I’ve only been out 3 times, but the support has been overwhelming. We can’t get signs to people fast enough, and this in a riding with a Liberal incumbent, and strong NDP support.

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Marcel's avatar

It's quite interesting to see how many of the commenters here are in the EXACT same position as Poilievre: struggling to catch up with reality, if not actively trying to shoo it away.

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Akshay's avatar

I am sorry. But is this writer even aware of the daily specific policy videos Poilievre is releasing, followed by a press conference on that topic? This has been happening for almost 2 weeks - every morning around 7 AM EDT a new (extremely well produced) video goes up on his YouTube channel, followed by a press conference at around 11 AM. The media reports show up on their websites around the same time. (And FWIW, from the comments to these reports in the G&M, it is practically unanimously praised.)

This has been happening like clockwork and is expected to last the duration of the campaign - keeping Poilievre and his specific policies in the news on a daily basis.

I have no idea what the writer is actually alluding to. This post appears to be written last month - not for what is happening now.

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Merlin M's avatar

Good points but I humbly suggest you are only half right on the blame Trudeau angle. It is correct that you can’t fight today’s election against yesterday’s leader but until Carney shows any meaningful separation in terms of policy and direction you definitely need to point out the absurdity of repeating the same mistakes and expecting a better outcome. At this time it would seem that far too many people being polled have failed to look beneath the surface only to find the same shitty meal being served by a less obnoxious server. Perhaps tasting the entree before issuing a huge tip may be the way to go here.

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NotoriousSceptic's avatar

Too late, the tasting period is far too short for the average voter. It may have been in the comments on this site that some days ago I saw the description of how Trudeau and Carney are first cousins. They certainly are more than that when it comes to their policies. The generationally corrupt incestuous fetid LPC swapped one phoney lying shyster for another and presents it as an improvement. At this time it certainly looks like the Laurentian Parasitic Corruptocrats outsmarted a substantial portion of voters yet again.

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Merlin M's avatar

Sadly you are likely correct in this. It is hard to understand why people can’t or won’t see the obvious.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

As the famous Simpsons meme goes: “Am I out of touch? No, no, it’s the children who are wrong…”

When you’re resorting to saying “if only the voters were smarter”, you’re losing. This is what the Dems in the US are currently saying, too. They too are losing.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

It’s completely unfair to the Conservatives that the voters appear to be willing to treat the Carney LPC as a completely different party from the Trudeau LPC. So far all attempts by Poilievre et al to stick Carney with the hated Trudeau policies appear to have failed.

It really is something. It’s like we were all so sick of the post-2015 far-left incarnation of the LPC that we have suddenly collectively decided that we’re going to forget it ever happened, and that Carney is a reset back to the centre-left Chrétien-era LPC we all know and love.

We’re in a tough spot with Trump partly because we’ve had a lost decade under Trudeau and Social Justice. Rationally, one must admit that to be true!

Unfortunately, the universe doesn’t care about fairness. Poilievre has to figure out how to win in an unfair situation where the voters have suddenly forgiven the LPC for all past sins. If the election were six months ago he’d have an enormous majority and now it’s all gone.

As a lifelong LPC voter who was about to leave the party if Trudeau remained leader, and who is now considering “coming back home” this election, I watch all this with some degree of amusement. The world can be cruel.

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Mike Canary's avatar

The Carney LPC as a different party from the Trudeau LPC?. With Steven Guilbault, Chrystia Freeland, and most of the other Liberals still hanging in there, and a new leader obsessed with “net-zero”? Just today Mark Carney announced a “new housing plan”, which is the same program announced by Trudeau and Liberals back in 2015. How many homes were built? About as many as the people coming out to Mark Carney’s public events.

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Wesley Burton's avatar

If you're looking for fairness - politics isn't for you. It's never fair.

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Geoff Olynyk's avatar

I agree! My comment was too long, but that was the point I was trying to make. It’s unfair but that’s the situation the CPC is in. The universe is cruel.

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