Anti-Panel 5: On the last full week parties had to close the deal

As the campaign goes down to the last days, our panelists weigh in.

During the election, The Line has assembled a panel of partisans, but fun ones! People we know and like. They’re going to help us analyze the campaign, but they’ve also agreed to give some honest feedback to their own parties. Though we suspect we might have to force them into that each week. We have Amanda Galbraith, partner at Oyster Group, offering a Conservative perspective; Kim Wright, principal and founder at Wright Strategy, bringing the NDP angle; and Jamie Carroll, self-described long time Liberal hack and founder of Carroll & Co Consulting Inc., making the case for the Red team.

The Line: Alright, guys. What did you each think of the last week of the campaign for your team?

Jamie Carroll: Honestly, I’m very happy with how the Liberal campaign has gone from soup to nuts. Carney was basically untested and unknown and while he hasn’t been perfect, he’s been very good. And based on all the polling and data available, it seems likely that it’s been good enough! (Knock wood, touch grass, whatever the fuck.)

I talked to another media outlet about this the other day: the closing of the campaign tour tells a story about where the respective campaigns think they are. Poilievre is in Trenton, N.S. (heart of Tory country even though the premier reminded Poilievre he’s not a real Tory 😬), Saskatoon, Calgary, Peterborough and his own riding!!

That’s a campaign on defence. One that thinks its only real chance at showing momentum in the last week is to do rallies in very safe home territory.

Carney is going from Vancouver Island, to the Fraser Valley, to Winnipeg, the Sault and the 905. He's in ridings where either there's no incumbent Liberal MP or he's looking for a pickup. He's talking about the future and kids, telling people there is hope and a path forward without the U.S. as it used to be.

That's a campaign on the offence.

Couple other nuggets I wanna mention:

Ads: It's rare in Canada that we get great political ads. And I wouldn't say this election is an exception. They were fine. But juxtapose the finals from both the CPC and LPC: Carney's closing message is hope; Poilievre's is fear. Whether you believe either is up to you but, again, it's about where the two campaigns think they are.

Poilievre’s riding of Carleton: I have no idea — like literally none — how it all ends on Monday but there's a couple of super fucking weird data points: the CPC had no one there until this week — like no one; they've now sent in a pretty huge number of staffers, war roomers, etc., to work the leader's riding; finally, Carleton was also the highest turnout in Canada for advance polls. I don't know what, but this combination of things means ... something.

Jagmeet: I actually admire what he said this week — that if the option is between the NDP and Canada, the choice should be clear. It's consistent with how he treated Poilievre during the debates as well and, I think, speaks to Singh's profound dislike of Poilievre. Does it help the Libs? I dunno — at ~8 per cent nationally it seems like all the damage is done.

Trump: Fuck me, this guy can't help himself. Just as Blanchet is (somewhat credibly) arguing Trump isn't the only thing going on in this election, the presidential prick reinserts himself ... so to speak. Based on all available data to date, this will likely benefit Carney and the Libs. Two things: to suggest this is Trump's goal is some Alex Jones-level conspiracy nonsense; the Libs have to play that really carefully so as not to seem they're enjoying too much schadenfreude about it.

Anyway, vote early, vote often!

Amanda Galbraith: So, it's Day 34 of this election campaign — and fellow anti-panelists (or maybe just me and Kim), our long national nightmare finally ends Monday. One way or another, we’ll have a functioning federal government again — for the first time since January 6, when Justin Trudeau resigned and threw Canadian politics into a blender.

I'll be real with you: I still don’t know what’s going to happen. I see the polls like everyone else — so either the Liberals are going to win, or we’re missing something huge. This "missing something" has happened in the U.S. — here, not so much.

Yes, I’ve become weirdly numb to the Poilievre mega-rallies (where the crowds knock out cell networks and they have to rent warehouses to fit everyone). But last night, my X timeline stopped me cold: after the Leafs game, downtown Toronto hockey fans chanting “We want Poilievre” on the TTC. I’ve been around politics for 20 years — I’ve never seen that kind of youth energy for the Conservatives. Something’s up. Will they actually turn out? They'd better — because older voters have ghosted the Conservatives like a bad Tinder date.

And look, I get it: Mark Carney, Canada’s surprise saviour. He parachuted in with Bay Street polish, IMF credentials, and just enough emotional detachment to seem stable in chaotic times. He’s prickly, awkward with the press — and, oh yeah, apparently lied flat-out about a call with Donald Trump. But voters? They’re eating up the firm handshake and the patrician accent.

Still, rewarding the Liberals with a fourth term feels a lot like handing your dog a treat after he eats the couch — for the fourth time. I honestly feel like this has been a bad episode of 90 Day Fiancé, and Canadians are going to wake up in a few months to realize: We married THAT GUY?? You mean when he said "energy superpower," he meant "clean energy superpower" — and Alberta energy stays in the ground? You mean when he said he cancelled the carbon tax, he didn't mean forever?

But here we are.

As for the breathless takes about Poilievre losing his seat? Pure crap. We forget politicians are people. They are parents with two young kids, living on the road for five weeks straight — yeah, if I were them, I'd want my kids at home too. Not a scandal, just being human.

And can we please give the Conservative campaign a little credit?

They raised their voter floor to a comfortable 35% — with new voters they’ve never had before. They pulled off mega-rallies night after night — a heavy logistical and political lift made to look easy. They left it all on the field. No half-measures. Oh, and they were basically campaigning against the President of the United States. Not an easy opponent for an opposition leader.

Meanwhile, over at the NDP … they’re staring down the barrel of losing official party status. On Friday, Jagmeet Singh doubled down, saying he has "no regrets." Not even about cratering the party. He called it a “strategic decision.” Sure. And calling jumping off a cliff a “strategic descent” doesn't make it a good idea. Look, I’ve had concerns about Singh’s leadership for a while — I feel he is one of the weakest federal leaders in recent memory. And that’s a real shame. Canada is better with a strong NDP: we need three serious parties to keep the system healthy.

Through my work in politics, I’ve gotten to know some incredible NDP strategists — smart, funny, brilliant women like Kim, Kathleen Monk, Jordan Leichnitz. These are the people we need in politics. So for their leader to try and write his own political obituary, giving permission to their supporters to vote strategically to stop the CPC (just as he did)? That sucks. They deserved better.

The NDP can win provincially. They know how to govern. Why can't their federal cousins figure it out?

Carroll: You may or may not be surprised to hear me agree with almost everything Amanda said but particularly:

• There was nothing wrong with the CPC, per se. And it certainly looks like they will get more votes than Stephen Harper ever did. I’m not sure who that’s worse for — Poilievre or Carney.

• Having the NDP is a good thing and I’ll be fucked if I can figure how the federal party of Doer, Romanow, Notley and Kinew just cannot get its shit together.

• We (all of us, but certainly Liberals) are failing young men. I don't know what the fix is (like, for real, not just easy rhetoric) but it's a very real problem we're going to need to address.

Kim Wright: The last week of every campaign is the worst. We are all tired and cranky, and dreaming of margaritas and a light sea breeze.

It’s also the time that every campaign team has to strap in. As I say to every candidate, when you get so incredibly sick and tired of saying your stump speech and answering that same stupid question for the 400th time, that is the moment that the voters are just starting to pay attention.

How each campaign finishes an election campaign is in many ways more important than how you start. You need to energize the voters and your team, especially in target seats. Because no matter what the polls or commentators say, absolutely NOTHING is settled until the ballots are cast and counted.

Increasingly there are a lot of people who do not make up their ballot until the last 72 hours or —gasp! — even less. For all the hacks reading this, no, you’re right — this wasn’t the case a decade or more ago in campaigns. Voter intentions used to be locked in right after the debates. Not now. Blame it on the instant gratification of social media or lack of people’s attention span or slacktivism or whatever. The reality is that is why the endgame ramp-up matters most.

It’s also why this week you’ve seen so many “Member Berries.” What the heck are Member Berries? They are throwbacks to remember pop culture icons, bringing about nostalgic feelings for the supposed good times of the past. Remember when … yeah, that person, place, or thing was awesome.

You may groan at seeing Stephen Harper doing ads for Pierre during the hockey games? It isn’t desperation, it’s nostalgia. (Although FFS, give the man subtitles and a new makeup artist.)

Why did Rachel Notley make an absolutely rockstar campaign appearance with Jagmeet in Edmonton earlier this week? No, it isn’t future positioning. Premier Rachel Notley shows what winning looks like and what committed New Democrats can do, especially in places like Edmonton where the NDP hold two seats and are looking at a third in Edmonton Centre.

Why did Jagmeet make a poignant stop this week at the site of the Winnipeg General Strike? Yes, the mural is visually stunning. To remember why workers’ rights and protections are so valuable and how easily they can be taken away.

These are all this week’s examples of “Member Berries.” And if they work in Star Trek, you better believe they work for politicians.

What else has worked this week: Jagmeet on the trail has been more honest about himself, his struggles, and his life experiences than I have ever seen him. And how he could find joy in those struggles. Joy and defiance! To me the most unsettling thing and the most heartbreaking moment of the week came as he finally spoke to the Star’s Susan Delacourt about the death threats he received as part of foreign interference, which put him under RCMP protection. I can’t imagine what that is like at any time, but especially that it came as his wife was just about to give birth to their second daughter.

I get that politicians don’t like to be vulnerable, but it is important that we have an honest conversation about this and the toll this life takes on the family. Talking about the real struggles is how we find solutions.

Death threats shouldn’t be part of the job.

Truly, how the fuck have we all gotten to this place where death threats and RCMP protection are becoming commonplace in Canadian politics? All parties need to better protect and better support their people. Just because it’s been like that before, we don’t need to suck it up. We need to do better for everyone, because good people are leaving politics because the trauma and the threats just aren’t worth it. Don’t believe me? You should read some of the hate mail that I and some of your favourite commentators get, especially women.

We all need to do better at calling out the bullshit and the hate. I know rage farming is great for clickbait and donations, but people’s lives are at stake.

The Line: What was something you would have liked to have seen from your campaign, but didn’t?

Carroll: Hmmm… gotten the job three months earlier? 😬

Look, I — like apparently a plurality of Canadians — think the Liberals have run a really solid front-runner campaign. Particular shout out to friends Andrew Bevan and Braeden Caley (along with many others!) for their roles in that.

I'll say this: There are a handful of ridings that I wish they had prioritized a bit more for tour and that may cost a couple otherwise winnable seats, but you can't hit 343 ridings in 36 days.

I would have liked to see more "negative" ads running more often (i.e., constantly). I thought the ones quoting Poilievre on "Canada is broken" and juxtaposing his words with Trump's were very effective and I feel like they took their foot off that pedal and shouldn't have.

Finally, I would have liked to see a few (P)progressive (C)conservatives take on more public roles during the campaign to really drive that wedge with soft CPC support. Scott Brison is travelling with the PM but would he have run if asked? Same question to Mike de Jong, Christy Clark or Jean Charest. Now for all I know some or all of those conversations happened and it was a no. But given that the caucus I worked with had Paul Szabo, Rosemary Ur, Paul Steckle, and Tom Wappel in it, one or two more conservative voices wouldn't have killed anyone — and it would have been a quality "go fuck yourself" to Team Poilievre, I think.

But hey, unless every pollster in the country is wrong, I have very little to critique.

Wright: Jamie, the best thing for the Liberals was that Mr. Carney didn’t have the job three months earlier, because by then, all of the big and small lies told by Mr. Carney would have caught up to him.

And more importantly, the contents of Mr. Carney’s massive portfolio — filled with potential conflicts of interest, questionable investments that may be at odds with public opinion, and his use of tax shelters — would FINALLY be available for public scrutiny and opposition research. But alas …

The Liberals, with a seemingly unlimited, deal-with-the-devil-esque combination of political pixie dust and dumb luck of geopolitical timing, pulled the trigger at a really good moment for them and Mr. Carney.

We can all agree, though, that whatever happens on Monday night, that man is going to absolutely fucking HATE Question Period.

As for the New Democrats, I always want to see us with sharper elbows and crisper content. I have never been quiet about that. Hell, in the last Ontario election, my role was styled as the Director of Sharpening Elbows.

Specifically, I would have liked for us to be showing the authentic Jagmeet for a lot longer — ideally since the start of his leadership. He is a good human with a fascinating story. One that easily connects with the real lives of so many Canadians. Instead, the NDP continued to let Canada Proud and others define Jagmeet and his motives (pension, Rolex, etc.). And that is just such fucking bullshit!

His staff are fiercely loyal and will run through walls for him but unfortunately, for the entire length of his leadership, sometimes the thickest walls that they had to run through were of Jagmeet’s own choosing.

I truly wish Canadians got to see more of the authentic person he is now showing Canadians. We saw some of this in his discussions with various content creators, including Saturday’s video with Strombo. Jagmeet is funny, clever, and compassionate. He has an amazing heart and mind. He is authentically filled with both joy and defiance.

Thankfully, we are finally seeing it now. And for making that happen, I want to give a special shout-out to the extraordinary Erin Morrison, who came back from the private sector and pundit-land to become Jagmeet’s deputy chief of staff and to be the political whisperer on the bus. Erin is a fierce campaigner, a brilliant communicator, and one of the best in the business in supporting others as they learn in political life. If only we could clone her.

Galbraith: Totally agree with Kim. Mark Carney’s greatest superpower? Canadians don’t know him — and they don’t care. He’s basically a blank canvas for people to project their hopes onto, blissfully unaware that in a few months, Team Liberal will be back to shoving the same tired policies and failed social engineering down our throats.

Now, this is going to sound insane coming from a Conservative, but honestly? I wish Pierre had done more media. Way more. Long-form sit-downs, deep-dive podcasts, even dreaded mainstream outlets. He’s great at it. He's sharp, passionate and genuinely cares about the policies he fights for — and you heard that in the debate when he spoke about his biggest regret. I want more of that guy.

Sure, there’s always risk, but Pierre can joust with the press like a pro. And given how much more important mainstream media was in this election because of the engagement over tariffs, it feels like a lane we left open. Regional and non-legacy outlets are essential — but you can’t ghost the big guys forever. The more you engage, the better shake you get.

As an aside, the campaign posted a lovely video today: Pierre making pasta with an Italian family, talking about home ownership across three generations. It was perfect. Authentic, real, emotional. I want way more of that.

The Line: Closing thoughts for today?

Carroll: Just remains to say I’ve enjoyed working with you all immensely and hope we see each other in person sometime after all this is over!

Wright: Politics can be a very rough business fuelled by people who are complicated optimists at heart. We don't always agree with what changing the world should look but it is important that they bring ideas forward for discussion.

I'm grateful that I have met, and will continue to get to know, some of the very best people from all political persuasions including the people on this panel. Thank you! And to everyone out on the trail this weekend, may your databases never crash. Cheers!

Galbraith: It’s been a slice, friends. I’ll see you on the other side of Monday. Also go Leafs go — are they playing now or something? Yay sports! 🤷🏻‍♀️

The Line: Go Leafs Go. Thanks, all.

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