This is not a criticism but more a plea. When you write things like this: "To all Canadians we say, calm down. Take a breath. This is going to be hard. It’s going to be painful.", please somehow acknowledge some Canadians are going to lose everything.
I understand the pep talk, but damn, having been through economic hard times and barely surviving - barely - things like "we are all in this together" make me grind my teeth.
Again, don't take this the wrong way. I don't know what words will help.
A very decent comment. I will add: the Trudeauist "Liberal" Party for Canada's Destruction is trying the get the population to believe that "we are all in this together", while they themselves are behaving in exactly the opposite way. As far as the speech by The Idiot King goes, that was a lot of empty words and hot air coming out of a lying mouth of a well practiced liar.
Yeah, this expression fills me with rage. We were never all in it together. To many “rules for thee but not for me” and different people faced different challenges depending on income and social connections as well as type of work they did. (My spouse who worked in grocery went to work every day as an essential worker. No staying home and getting cerb and using delivery here. I noticed the most ardent repeaters of that phrase were the ones with the highest income who were saving thousands of dollars a month by not commuting. One person on Facebook was saving more than what our household monthly income was! They had $5k extra per month as a result of work from home!)
No wonder the fed gov can't get all the civil service workers to come back to work in the offices. Even now they are "working from home." A private employer would fire them. Just one more maddening thing I read about recently.
But Jen and Matt are writing this stuff with unfiltered genuine (and justified) passion here ... sometimes it's best to just to provide a heartfelt "give 'er" ... and just don't fret about minor (and UNAVOIDABLE) collateral damage.
Heartily agreed; while I appreciate the sentiment of the Line in expressing that wish, it also rings pretty damn hollow when accompanied with an assessment of the impacts that this is going to have on people.
That said, I would like to offer some alternative words for the citizens of this troubled nation:
My MP’s office failed to acknowledge my phone call and polite voice message requesting an appointment. After two weeks I called again and was brushed off by a Thingie who said that he would look into the subject of my request. A week later I received an email informing me that the matter wasn’t one for the MP and suggesting that I seek assistance elsewhere. Once these people have been elected they just don’t give a sh1t.
10 years of a Trudeau led Liberal / NDP coalition which has done its best in so many ways to tear the nation down and rebuild it based on their misguided ideologies has done immense damage to much of the pride that ordinary Canadians might have once held in their country. Carney is not an answer merely a continuation of the same pathetic Liberal “divine right to rule ethos”. On the other hand Trump might be the catalyst that causes Canadians to look in the mirror and say we can be so much better than this and get to work making Canada actually stand for something.
Harper’s vision of Canada as an energy superpower would’ve been a pretty good place to be right now. Would also nice to have all that fiscal capacity that the Liberals have frittered away now that we’re facing a 2nd major crisis in the span of 5 years.
We've ignored plenty of warnings from Americans. Biden has been warning us about free loading. When Biden came asking for help with Haiti because we have the French expertise, we refused to help. Houthis started firing at ships in the Red Sea, Americans asked for help with Naval task force - Canada was missing. Now we don't even have veterans or Democrats pushing back on tariffs.
John, we weren't willing to make ANY decisions other than levy more taxes and restrictions and then hand out more money. Oh, and let in more "deserving people of color."
It was nice to read about your frustration with the head in the sand attitude that seems to have prevailed over the last couple of months. At times I felt as if I was the only one who was concerned. Everybody just went on as if nothing had changed. No one seemed to appreciate that a profound change had occurred. The stock market seems to have refused to believe anything bad was about to happen. It was very frustrating. Moving on, though, I have to express what might be seen as a contrarian point of view by some. Over the last couple of days there has been a lot of angst over how the United States could do this to such a good friend, that our countries have been close friends, partners and allies for decades. But, if we look in the mirror closely, can we really say that we are such good friends? I’m not going to dwell on defence, this has been flogged to death. Someone better than me once quipped that we’re always the friend who is in the restaurant bathroom when the cheque arrives. I’d just add that we’ve probably spent most of the dinner talking about how nice and good we are how everyone else should aspire to be just like us. Does a good friend do that? Within Canadian nationalism there has always been an anti-American streak, especially on the left. Is that friendly? But, across the political spectrum there is a tendency to look south and feel smug about ourselves. We are nicer, kinder, gentler. We have health care and gun control. We don’t invade other countries, we keep the peace. We help others and look after each other. Above all, we are somehow smarter. Remember Rick Mercer’s old schtick of “Talking to Americans”? I always found that cringe. Stand on a Canadian street corner long enough and you could do a very similar “Talking to Canadians” segment. Do true friends get off on feeling superior to people they call friends? Don’t get me wrong, even if we had been the best and truest friends in the world, Trump would likely have slapped tariffs on us because, as Matt says, he DGAF. I’m realistic about that and I’m mad as hell as well (I know Matt, be like Spock—I’m working on it, it’s a process). But, in crafting this response we have to get past the friendly betrayal concept, recognize that we drank some of our own Kool Aid on the subject, and figure out what we can do about it. Oh, and this will be hard, in part, because Trump et al just outright lie to create their own reality. We want to bring facts and reason to the table and he just makes shit up. It will also be hard because we are not dealing with a government. Yes, it can be seen as a feudal court. But you could also describe it as a government taken over by a cult. Either way, the normal inter-governmental processes just won’t work with them; again, they DGAF about things like that. I don’t think our process-driven leadership, both political and bureaucratic, can deal with that. I expect we’ll see a bit of a bloodbath in the markets tomorrow.
We at The Line have been more than critical of Canada on all of the files Trump is criticizing, but we aren't naive about him or what's motivating him.
Even if we had done everything perfectly, he'd still be launching tariffs. We'd just be better equipped to handle those tariffs. JG
Absolutely correct. Too many people are blaming Trump for not caring about Canada, or for being mean to us. That's neither his interest nor his job. Caring for Canada is our job, and we haven't done it well at all.
I completely agree (love your podcast--makes the treadmill bearable). I'm not trying to suggest that we are at fault. We are not: Trump is an a--hole who loves to bully others and believes tariffs are free money. I just think that we, collectively, need a better sense of how we treated this relationship if we are to make the right decisions about how to move forward.
American men in the top 1% of the income distribution have an expected age of death of 87.3 years, 14.6 years (95% CI, 14.4–14.8 years) higher than those in the bottom 1%.
This is how I read it at well. I have been following the American new right for a few years now, Oren casts and the project 25? Folks. Interesting stuff.
I would rein in the "it was our fault" assessment a little, if I were you. Trump is not doing any of this because "Canada was bad" (despite his spew). Re-read the section from "The Line's" anonymous contributor.
What is happening is being driven by a very domestic US political dynamic. We just happen to be one among several bits of road kill.
The US is about to go more berserk. The probability of the BRICS dumping the US dollar as a reserve currency and the Middle East following suit is substantially greater than zero.
There will be a scramble for dollars that is only going to fuel its rally. Nations need USD for foreign exchange transactions as they try and shore up reserves.
If this gets serious enough, we will see the US buying other's currency in an attempt to quell the USD appreciation. If not, then sovereign defaults are next.
My point is that alternative systems are going to be set up. The BRICs are not going to let Trump tariff them. That’s why China was only 10% while we were 25%. China has hammers and if enough countries agree, they will bring it.
My understanding is that if the USD was not the world's reserve currency, the giant deficits the US experiences would end as other nations would not be chasing USD's by selling more into the US than elsewhere.
Watching Carney's performance so far, I truly believe he would be the final nail in the coffin. I urge all the readers to look at his "UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance" bio, and read his convictions. Gawd help us.
I suspect your anonymous contributor has ties to the Democratic Party. Keeping his identity secret is soo… Canadian. (Note: my suspicion was in error as pointed out by Matt. However I still standby the rest of this post).
I’m having a difficult time formulating analogies. Is it a power grab and any excuse will do? Definitely. There was a thesis that Putin supported Trump in 2016 because Hillary dissed him at an earlier meeting. And now Trump detests Trudeau because Trudeau backstabbed him in front of other world leaders at a conference without realizing the mikes were still on and Trump found out about it almost instantly.
In terms of the Dukes of Hazzard, Rob Ford seems like Boss Hogg and Dominic Leblanc is Sheriff Roscoe P Coltrane. Not sure if Melanie Joly fits as Daisy Duke or not as the spark seems to be missing.
Flame away but I spent too much time and effort to become a proud US citizen so that my gravestone can read “died a free man.” There is no way I want to see 40 million people get the same privilege by sitting on their butts and lucking into it. With the exception of the quarter of the population that actually produces stuff to make others’ lives better, I believe most of my fellow Americans don’t need or want millions of takers, game players, entitlement hounds, or a small nation that keeps its population in lost economic opportunity slavery by denying them education in the language of business and of the majority of its clients.
As a PS someone suggested Trudeau should resign immediately. A compelling reason is to stop him from cementing his legacy by filling a bunch of vacant senate seats with fellow travelers and poisoning the well for a generation of Canadians.
Thanks. Really neat how the structure and dynamics of the Republican administration under Trump is quite similar to that of the PMO under Trudeau. Or that of any cult leader…
Great piece, guys. I too am disturbed by some of the panic I am seeing out there. But our leaders have not impressed me as the type to stay calm in a situation that calls for panic so this is not surprising.
I can only echo your comments about the disgrace that is Junior. But while his “stewardship” of the economy has been a total disaster, seriously exacerbating our predicament, some of Canada’s failings which make us so vulnerable to this tariff attack, actually pre-date him. And some of the more “structural” failings - looking at you, Supply Management - are actually sacred cows among the entire ruling class. Plus, Junior did do a good job with the USMCA.
So, much as I have total contempt for the man, to hold him solely responsible for the mess we find ourselves in right now would be unfair (not that you guys are doing that, I know) and not productive. Collectively we are ALL responsible to varying degrees for this mess. As HL Mencken said, democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. Well, we are getting it good and hard right now. (You could legitimately argue that a Canadian version of that axiom should replace “the common people” with “the Laurentian elite” but that would undeservedly absolve the rest of us of our responsibility.)
That said, the fact Junior is pretending to be “Captain Canada” is both galling and a fucking hideous joke. I don’t think any Canadian politician in my lifetime has ever had less moral authority for that title than him (I welcome nominations to the contrary). Seriously, you could dig up the corpse of Rene Levesque, bring it back to life with AI and Boston Dynamics robot technology and the resultant creation would absolutely have more moral authority to speak as Captain Canada than does Junior.
On the plus side, this tariff crisis could finally be the impetus for us to become a serious country. But only if we finally grow up and take many long overdue actions, including some of those referred to in last week’s “Asshole Canada” podcast. Humility requires that nobody ought to be certain as to the best immediate response in these unique circumstances but responding to his tariffs with tariffs of our own doesn’t make the least bit of sense to me. (Your “strategy over tactics” point is bang on.) Somebody ten times your size just broke your right arm; responding by breaking his baby toe when it costs you your left arm in the process does not strike me as being particularly wise. That is especially true if you think the other guy’s ultimate plan might be to take possession of your house and he is prepared to suffer a little in order to achieve that outcome. This gives off “Little Beaver vs King Kong Bundy at Wrestlemania” vibes, an infamous example of a Canadian trying to tangle with a much bigger American. Given the way Trump is posting on social media today and the fact he is a member of the WWE Hall of Fame, I half expect him to reference that very event within the next 48 hours. I can see the meme now – superimposing the US flag over Bundy’s head and the Canadian flag over Little Beaver’s head.
Like it or not, we do indeed live in interesting times.
"Moral authority" for a politician is not really a meaningful concept. The Prime Minister is not the head-of-state, and to the extent that he/she is perceived as such regardless, their popularity is fluid and saying, "You're illegitimate" in response to them making statements that do in fact represent popular opinion is meaningless.
I don't disagree with your main point but I think "moral authority" is a useful concept for the limited purpose of making my point. He is still the PM so any perceived/de facto "authority" that exists when it comes to speaking for the country is still invested in him and I would not suggest otherwise. The point I was trying to make is, regardless of THAT reality, the fact that he of all people is speaking for Canada in these specific circumstances is egregiously "wrong" in SOME sense, regardless of exactly how one chooses to phrase it.
Didn't think I'd be re-reading the Resistance Operating Concept, designed originally to help total defence deter Russians in Eastern Europe, as a potential guide for Canada. But here we are. https://jsou.edu/Press/PublicationDashboard/25
I married into a family of Hungarian refugees who escaped Hungary prior to the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. They had to cross a mine field to escape into Austria. I understand completely where you are coming from.
This afternoon I had to log into the Service Canada website. One of the authentication fields was "Parent's name at birth". Which parent? At who's birth? Turns out I needed to provide my mother's maiden name. When our federal government can't figure out how to ask me what my mother's maiden name is because using gendered language might be triggering for someone, they haven't a hope in hell of surviving this crisis. We're fucked.
Trump’s weak point is his own domestic political situation. Contrary to his assertion and those of his supporters, he did not win a landslide. He won a decisive victory, but still only won a plurality, not a majority of the popular vote and the 47th largest electoral college margin in history. His favorabiity in his honeymoon period is 47%. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is based on a handful of members in a very fractious caucus. His election victory was based on a rejection of Biden and the chaos people felt characterized the Biden years, not a full-throated embrace of Trump. He’s trying for a “shock and awe” approach to flood the zone with so much crap that his opposition are saturated and can’t respond, but he’s also taking damage as people notice what he’s doing and lash out.
What Canada needs to do is hunker down, manage the damage from Trump’s sanctions and hostility, and figure out how to help him hurt himself. Retaliatory tariffs have to be calibrated to cause Trump domestic political pain and to look like an ass. How do you feed Trump’s opponents ammunition to hurt him with? “Asshole Canada” is a good approach. Do it deliberately to hurt Trump while delivering long term benefit for Canada.
The other approach is go kamikaze: approach Trump, say “we want to enter negotiations to join the U.S.”. Set the terms at suspension of tariffs during negotiations. Ask to be states 51-60. Demand the US exchange all Canadian dollars at parity. Insist the US include language protections for the French language and First Nations treaties in the US Constitution. Ask them to add a maple leaf to the flag. Insist the US join the British Commonwealth. Jam the system and make Trump negotiate. Suck him in and let the US political parties figure out that bringing in Canada basically guarantees that the Republicans won’t win another federal election for the next 20 years. Give Trump a big hug and smile as we detonate the explosive vest.
Excellent article, please sign me up for asshole nation. I read an Ezra Klein article in the NY Times today, Dont Believe Him was the title. It speaks to muzzle velocity, a Steve Bannon idea that he shared on PBS Frontline in 2019. Bannon talks about flooding the zone, overwhelm with executive orders or announcements, thats what Klein thinks trump is doing now. I believe we need to do something radical and unexpected. I love your idea about getting trudeau and freeland out and bring back parliament but I do not believe that will happen with trudeau or freeland. They arent going anywhere and trudeaus ego probably got recharged after getting some attention on Saturday night. Thanks Cathy L
I haven’t seen much panic, but also haven’t been on Facebook today. I will say though, that I’m pissed at Trudeau and every other politician that thinks retaliatory tariffs is the way to go rather than investing in Canada and supporting businesses impacted by the tariffs. The impact of US tariffs on Canada would be a whole lot smaller if Canada wasn’t retaliating. The fact that they’re stuck in a pissing match rather than acting strategically just gets me fired up. (I was fired up 2 weeks ago already.)
For those saying put your MP on speed dial, I hate to break it to you, but contacting an MP does very little. It does even less if your MP is in opposition. Yes you may get an email, or a nice response. But nothing will change. I’ve trialed this for many issues in the past and have seen exactly zero impact from it.
We need an election. And o hope someone in the conservative caucus is smart enough to stop the retaliatory tariff idea and instead focus on building state capacity back up in Canada. Canadians don’t need inflation from our own tariffs on top of the other things that will come from the US tariffs.
We must build alliances with other countries. Now.
Several weeks ago, The Economist suggested, tongue in cheek, that Canada should become part of the European Union. Obviously, that's a step too far. But we could tighten trade agreements, swap mobility rights, encourage investment and work jointly on sectoral programs. Reciprocal recognition of educational qualifications.
We must stop lecturing other nations on human rights, and on the proper way to run a cdmocracy. We should approach others as equals, not inferiors.
Above all else, we should get closer to Mexico and other countries in Latin America. How many of our schools offer classes in Spanish (or Portuguese)? How many agreements are there between Canadian and Mexican universities? How many joint ventures? How much respect?
Such measures take time. We should have started long ago. But we can still start now.
Ok, but we have kind of been assholes for 10 years. 2 critical allies came to us for help with natural gas and we sent them away empty handed because we didn’t want to upset the environmental lobby. We threw Mexico under the bus less than 2 months ago. The Liberals/NDP have been playing footsies with the Kalistani movement at the expense of Indian relations for a few seats in Surrey.
You think these countries look at us the same way?
In the last two years the Liberal government turned away Germany and Japan when they came asking about LNG. Now, European imports of Russian LNG have never been higher. Opportunities of any type, not just LNG, are disappearing.
We have CETA remember? But it does not seem like we are doing anything with it. From a consumer perspective I see nothing with Europe that was not there before.
Defining Canada's win as preserving our independence is good. I think we can be more ambitious by defining our win as steadily separating ourselves from the United States as much as possible. The more separate we are, the less leverage America has and the less it matters to us when the US Gov't proceeds in nearly inexpicable directions as it's doing now. Here is a sketch of what that looks like: (1) tidewater pipelines and replacing Line 5 with a trans-Canadian pipeline to provide western fuel to eastern Canada; (2) directing our mineral and farm exports to world markets - and reconfiguring our farm sector (more grain & oilseeds, less beef) to match international market opportunities, not American; (3) replacing American fast-moving consumer goods (including those produced in branch plants) with Canadian brands - we shouldn't rely on the US for salad dressing and window cleaner; (4) regulating or banning US digital media giants doing business here, replacing them with Crown corp. (a lot of what they do is digital infrastructure that should not be privately owned) where feasible; (5) building up our defence industrial base so that we can equip the CAF with Canadian-designed missiles, drones and other seemingly not-too-complex weapons tech (after all Iran can produce drones that Russia finds useful in Ukraine so how hard is that tech); (6) purging our foreign policy ecosystem (think tanks, universities) of "Atlanticist" or pro-American thinkers by simplying freezing them out - we want Canadian nationalist advice; (7) ending our Five Eyes and other intelligence joint ventures with foreign and even Commonwealth countries - rebuilding a nationalist, Canadian intelligence corps; and (8) tightening border control and crime suppression state capacity not because the US demands it but because we want it (few illegal migrants in or out; rapid refugee adjudication usually ending in denial; no illegal migrants in the workforce; ending the tacit acceptance of organized crime (the RCMP says 4,000 organized crime groups operate here) and money laundering. We need a strong, component state (as you so wisely remind us) that brings Peace, Order and Good Government to life. We may face hybrid warfare from the US in the deporations space (directing those expelled from the US northward), the organized crime/terrorism space (looking to gin up trouble here in Canada) or the public diplomacy space (broadcasting to the world Canada's lax attitude to suppressing crime). The more separate our economy is, the more we handle defence on our own and the more capable our state is at controlling what happens at and within our borders, the more immune we will be to the threats we may soon be facing from the south.
“Team Canada” & “We got your backs” - Liberal speak for “how do we funnel more money from the Canadian Treasury to our “friends”! The Liberals are the green-grifters, the net-zero people, the leaders of this colonial genocidal post national state - the Liberal Party’s motto - about to be led by the “outsider” Carney! Should they be anywhere near the government of Canada after the next election - the east west unity of Canada is at stake! I am fully on board with psycho Canada NOW!
It’s far too early to tell what will happen to the trade patterns this week, but on a worst case scenario any business entity that has inventory destined for the US may have just seen 25% of the book value evaporate into thin air.
Do readers have any idea what lenders think about that, where overnight a clean balance sheet turns into an ugly mess? Where the friendly account manager cuts back on lines of credit and demands increases in security against one?
This is an ugly, ugly mess, and the “we have your back” BS is insulting to the small business owners who finally got back on track from the pandemic only to get blind sided again.
WRT your assessment about the "dicking around" our elites (at both the federal and provincial levels), I would agree. "They" haven't covered themselves in glory.
However, in their defence (I say this with tongue planted firmly in cheek), many people in Canada were, until the past week or so, kidding themselves into thinking that Trump's attacks on us were simply about negotiating (something or other).
It is not. Your "anonymous contributor" was spot on about the weird and altogether alarming dynamic in the court of "the aging king". Something big is happening in the United States and we (together with Mexico and many other allies of the United States) will be little more than cannon fodder.
WRT Canada's ability to withstand the onslaught, I believe that your contributor was wrong. But I do not for one moment believe that our struggle with this revanchist, 19th Century redux of an administration / country will be easy.
We are in for serious pain as a country. Millions of our fellow citizens will suffer the indignity of being thrown out of their jobs (and some out of their houses). It will be ugly.
But we will also discover, I think, that we do value the things that make us distinct from "that lot" down south. To the extent that this makes us strong, then it will be a good thing.
Hopefully we will lose a lot of our mistaken assumptions (about the Americans--and about ourselves). For my part, I hope that mistaken assumption No. 1 is the belief that we do not need to spend (a lot more) on the defence of our country (military and intelligence gathering) and on building sustained relationships with the rest-of-the-world EX-USA. We've been neglectful for at least 35 years on this score... it cannot go on.
This is not a criticism but more a plea. When you write things like this: "To all Canadians we say, calm down. Take a breath. This is going to be hard. It’s going to be painful.", please somehow acknowledge some Canadians are going to lose everything.
I understand the pep talk, but damn, having been through economic hard times and barely surviving - barely - things like "we are all in this together" make me grind my teeth.
Again, don't take this the wrong way. I don't know what words will help.
A very decent comment. I will add: the Trudeauist "Liberal" Party for Canada's Destruction is trying the get the population to believe that "we are all in this together", while they themselves are behaving in exactly the opposite way. As far as the speech by The Idiot King goes, that was a lot of empty words and hot air coming out of a lying mouth of a well practiced liar.
Yeah. “We are in this together”, yes we are, but since Covid, this phrase makes me a bit sick. PTSD I think :)
Yeah, this expression fills me with rage. We were never all in it together. To many “rules for thee but not for me” and different people faced different challenges depending on income and social connections as well as type of work they did. (My spouse who worked in grocery went to work every day as an essential worker. No staying home and getting cerb and using delivery here. I noticed the most ardent repeaters of that phrase were the ones with the highest income who were saving thousands of dollars a month by not commuting. One person on Facebook was saving more than what our household monthly income was! They had $5k extra per month as a result of work from home!)
No wonder the fed gov can't get all the civil service workers to come back to work in the offices. Even now they are "working from home." A private employer would fire them. Just one more maddening thing I read about recently.
Don’t remember it, don’t think back. It is over and done with. That is my motto :). It works…sometimes
Noted and appreciated. JG
I agree ... you do make a good point here.
But Jen and Matt are writing this stuff with unfiltered genuine (and justified) passion here ... sometimes it's best to just to provide a heartfelt "give 'er" ... and just don't fret about minor (and UNAVOIDABLE) collateral damage.
So ... "Cowboy Up."
Heartily agreed; while I appreciate the sentiment of the Line in expressing that wish, it also rings pretty damn hollow when accompanied with an assessment of the impacts that this is going to have on people.
That said, I would like to offer some alternative words for the citizens of this troubled nation:
"Find and memorize your MP's office phone number"
My MP’s office failed to acknowledge my phone call and polite voice message requesting an appointment. After two weeks I called again and was brushed off by a Thingie who said that he would look into the subject of my request. A week later I received an email informing me that the matter wasn’t one for the MP and suggesting that I seek assistance elsewhere. Once these people have been elected they just don’t give a sh1t.
Good point. Welp, I'm out of nice ideas, guess it's time to start blockading roads.
10 years of a Trudeau led Liberal / NDP coalition which has done its best in so many ways to tear the nation down and rebuild it based on their misguided ideologies has done immense damage to much of the pride that ordinary Canadians might have once held in their country. Carney is not an answer merely a continuation of the same pathetic Liberal “divine right to rule ethos”. On the other hand Trump might be the catalyst that causes Canadians to look in the mirror and say we can be so much better than this and get to work making Canada actually stand for something.
This has not been a particularly ambitious or consequential federal government, either for good or for bad.
Trudeau fucked us. Didn't he?
Harper’s vision of Canada as an energy superpower would’ve been a pretty good place to be right now. Would also nice to have all that fiscal capacity that the Liberals have frittered away now that we’re facing a 2nd major crisis in the span of 5 years.
We've ignored plenty of warnings from Americans. Biden has been warning us about free loading. When Biden came asking for help with Haiti because we have the French expertise, we refused to help. Houthis started firing at ships in the Red Sea, Americans asked for help with Naval task force - Canada was missing. Now we don't even have veterans or Democrats pushing back on tariffs.
We have let this relationship rot.
We messed ourselves up. Trudeau (and Poilievre) are merely the symptoms of our own failures (decades-long failures, BTW).
We weren’t willing to make the hard decisions.
John, we weren't willing to make ANY decisions other than levy more taxes and restrictions and then hand out more money. Oh, and let in more "deserving people of color."
That’s because all decisions would have upset a key group the government was courting. You can’t run a country that way.
Timid Governance.
Non governance.
It is cheaper to study than act. Canada's mantra that needs an immediate shift.
multiple times
It was nice to read about your frustration with the head in the sand attitude that seems to have prevailed over the last couple of months. At times I felt as if I was the only one who was concerned. Everybody just went on as if nothing had changed. No one seemed to appreciate that a profound change had occurred. The stock market seems to have refused to believe anything bad was about to happen. It was very frustrating. Moving on, though, I have to express what might be seen as a contrarian point of view by some. Over the last couple of days there has been a lot of angst over how the United States could do this to such a good friend, that our countries have been close friends, partners and allies for decades. But, if we look in the mirror closely, can we really say that we are such good friends? I’m not going to dwell on defence, this has been flogged to death. Someone better than me once quipped that we’re always the friend who is in the restaurant bathroom when the cheque arrives. I’d just add that we’ve probably spent most of the dinner talking about how nice and good we are how everyone else should aspire to be just like us. Does a good friend do that? Within Canadian nationalism there has always been an anti-American streak, especially on the left. Is that friendly? But, across the political spectrum there is a tendency to look south and feel smug about ourselves. We are nicer, kinder, gentler. We have health care and gun control. We don’t invade other countries, we keep the peace. We help others and look after each other. Above all, we are somehow smarter. Remember Rick Mercer’s old schtick of “Talking to Americans”? I always found that cringe. Stand on a Canadian street corner long enough and you could do a very similar “Talking to Canadians” segment. Do true friends get off on feeling superior to people they call friends? Don’t get me wrong, even if we had been the best and truest friends in the world, Trump would likely have slapped tariffs on us because, as Matt says, he DGAF. I’m realistic about that and I’m mad as hell as well (I know Matt, be like Spock—I’m working on it, it’s a process). But, in crafting this response we have to get past the friendly betrayal concept, recognize that we drank some of our own Kool Aid on the subject, and figure out what we can do about it. Oh, and this will be hard, in part, because Trump et al just outright lie to create their own reality. We want to bring facts and reason to the table and he just makes shit up. It will also be hard because we are not dealing with a government. Yes, it can be seen as a feudal court. But you could also describe it as a government taken over by a cult. Either way, the normal inter-governmental processes just won’t work with them; again, they DGAF about things like that. I don’t think our process-driven leadership, both political and bureaucratic, can deal with that. I expect we’ll see a bit of a bloodbath in the markets tomorrow.
We at The Line have been more than critical of Canada on all of the files Trump is criticizing, but we aren't naive about him or what's motivating him.
Even if we had done everything perfectly, he'd still be launching tariffs. We'd just be better equipped to handle those tariffs. JG
Absolutely correct. Too many people are blaming Trump for not caring about Canada, or for being mean to us. That's neither his interest nor his job. Caring for Canada is our job, and we haven't done it well at all.
I completely agree (love your podcast--makes the treadmill bearable). I'm not trying to suggest that we are at fault. We are not: Trump is an a--hole who loves to bully others and believes tariffs are free money. I just think that we, collectively, need a better sense of how we treated this relationship if we are to make the right decisions about how to move forward.
The average life span of a male in 2022 in the United States was 74.8 years. Trump is 78 years old. Father Time is on Canada's side.
American men in the top 1% of the income distribution have an expected age of death of 87.3 years, 14.6 years (95% CI, 14.4–14.8 years) higher than those in the bottom 1%.
This is how I read it at well. I have been following the American new right for a few years now, Oren casts and the project 25? Folks. Interesting stuff.
I would rein in the "it was our fault" assessment a little, if I were you. Trump is not doing any of this because "Canada was bad" (despite his spew). Re-read the section from "The Line's" anonymous contributor.
What is happening is being driven by a very domestic US political dynamic. We just happen to be one among several bits of road kill.
Yes, the anonymous guy did say it. I would not take it as the bible tho. And @Orest is right, we are a bit passive aggressive.
The US is about to go more berserk. The probability of the BRICS dumping the US dollar as a reserve currency and the Middle East following suit is substantially greater than zero.
More berserk - likely. Anybody dumping US dollar - not happening; any tries will be short-lived.
There will be a scramble for dollars that is only going to fuel its rally. Nations need USD for foreign exchange transactions as they try and shore up reserves.
If this gets serious enough, we will see the US buying other's currency in an attempt to quell the USD appreciation. If not, then sovereign defaults are next.
My point is that alternative systems are going to be set up. The BRICs are not going to let Trump tariff them. That’s why China was only 10% while we were 25%. China has hammers and if enough countries agree, they will bring it.
My understanding is that if the USD was not the world's reserve currency, the giant deficits the US experiences would end as other nations would not be chasing USD's by selling more into the US than elsewhere.
Yep. Canada is about to learn what giant deficits and a currency no one wants is all about.
I am with you on this. No excuses. I ignored politics until I realized I was in the titanic.
Watching Carney's performance so far, I truly believe he would be the final nail in the coffin. I urge all the readers to look at his "UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance" bio, and read his convictions. Gawd help us.
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/mark-carney-investing-net-zero-climate-solutions-creates-value-and-rewards
Gawd will not help us; vote accordingly to help ourselves; no to Carbon Carnage Carney. The Brits have a few substantial paragraphs to say about him.
I suspect your anonymous contributor has ties to the Democratic Party. Keeping his identity secret is soo… Canadian. (Note: my suspicion was in error as pointed out by Matt. However I still standby the rest of this post).
I’m having a difficult time formulating analogies. Is it a power grab and any excuse will do? Definitely. There was a thesis that Putin supported Trump in 2016 because Hillary dissed him at an earlier meeting. And now Trump detests Trudeau because Trudeau backstabbed him in front of other world leaders at a conference without realizing the mikes were still on and Trump found out about it almost instantly.
In terms of the Dukes of Hazzard, Rob Ford seems like Boss Hogg and Dominic Leblanc is Sheriff Roscoe P Coltrane. Not sure if Melanie Joly fits as Daisy Duke or not as the spark seems to be missing.
Flame away but I spent too much time and effort to become a proud US citizen so that my gravestone can read “died a free man.” There is no way I want to see 40 million people get the same privilege by sitting on their butts and lucking into it. With the exception of the quarter of the population that actually produces stuff to make others’ lives better, I believe most of my fellow Americans don’t need or want millions of takers, game players, entitlement hounds, or a small nation that keeps its population in lost economic opportunity slavery by denying them education in the language of business and of the majority of its clients.
As a PS someone suggested Trudeau should resign immediately. A compelling reason is to stop him from cementing his legacy by filling a bunch of vacant senate seats with fellow travelers and poisoning the well for a generation of Canadians.
It's the other one. JG
Thanks. Really neat how the structure and dynamics of the Republican administration under Trump is quite similar to that of the PMO under Trudeau. Or that of any cult leader…
Great piece, guys. I too am disturbed by some of the panic I am seeing out there. But our leaders have not impressed me as the type to stay calm in a situation that calls for panic so this is not surprising.
I can only echo your comments about the disgrace that is Junior. But while his “stewardship” of the economy has been a total disaster, seriously exacerbating our predicament, some of Canada’s failings which make us so vulnerable to this tariff attack, actually pre-date him. And some of the more “structural” failings - looking at you, Supply Management - are actually sacred cows among the entire ruling class. Plus, Junior did do a good job with the USMCA.
So, much as I have total contempt for the man, to hold him solely responsible for the mess we find ourselves in right now would be unfair (not that you guys are doing that, I know) and not productive. Collectively we are ALL responsible to varying degrees for this mess. As HL Mencken said, democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. Well, we are getting it good and hard right now. (You could legitimately argue that a Canadian version of that axiom should replace “the common people” with “the Laurentian elite” but that would undeservedly absolve the rest of us of our responsibility.)
That said, the fact Junior is pretending to be “Captain Canada” is both galling and a fucking hideous joke. I don’t think any Canadian politician in my lifetime has ever had less moral authority for that title than him (I welcome nominations to the contrary). Seriously, you could dig up the corpse of Rene Levesque, bring it back to life with AI and Boston Dynamics robot technology and the resultant creation would absolutely have more moral authority to speak as Captain Canada than does Junior.
On the plus side, this tariff crisis could finally be the impetus for us to become a serious country. But only if we finally grow up and take many long overdue actions, including some of those referred to in last week’s “Asshole Canada” podcast. Humility requires that nobody ought to be certain as to the best immediate response in these unique circumstances but responding to his tariffs with tariffs of our own doesn’t make the least bit of sense to me. (Your “strategy over tactics” point is bang on.) Somebody ten times your size just broke your right arm; responding by breaking his baby toe when it costs you your left arm in the process does not strike me as being particularly wise. That is especially true if you think the other guy’s ultimate plan might be to take possession of your house and he is prepared to suffer a little in order to achieve that outcome. This gives off “Little Beaver vs King Kong Bundy at Wrestlemania” vibes, an infamous example of a Canadian trying to tangle with a much bigger American. Given the way Trump is posting on social media today and the fact he is a member of the WWE Hall of Fame, I half expect him to reference that very event within the next 48 hours. I can see the meme now – superimposing the US flag over Bundy’s head and the Canadian flag over Little Beaver’s head.
Like it or not, we do indeed live in interesting times.
"Moral authority" for a politician is not really a meaningful concept. The Prime Minister is not the head-of-state, and to the extent that he/she is perceived as such regardless, their popularity is fluid and saying, "You're illegitimate" in response to them making statements that do in fact represent popular opinion is meaningless.
I otherwise agree with your post.
I don't disagree with your main point but I think "moral authority" is a useful concept for the limited purpose of making my point. He is still the PM so any perceived/de facto "authority" that exists when it comes to speaking for the country is still invested in him and I would not suggest otherwise. The point I was trying to make is, regardless of THAT reality, the fact that he of all people is speaking for Canada in these specific circumstances is egregiously "wrong" in SOME sense, regardless of exactly how one chooses to phrase it.
Cheers
Didn't think I'd be re-reading the Resistance Operating Concept, designed originally to help total defence deter Russians in Eastern Europe, as a potential guide for Canada. But here we are. https://jsou.edu/Press/PublicationDashboard/25
I married into a family of Hungarian refugees who escaped Hungary prior to the 1956 Hungarian Revolution. They had to cross a mine field to escape into Austria. I understand completely where you are coming from.
If you'll indulge me an anecdote...
This afternoon I had to log into the Service Canada website. One of the authentication fields was "Parent's name at birth". Which parent? At who's birth? Turns out I needed to provide my mother's maiden name. When our federal government can't figure out how to ask me what my mother's maiden name is because using gendered language might be triggering for someone, they haven't a hope in hell of surviving this crisis. We're fucked.
Trump’s weak point is his own domestic political situation. Contrary to his assertion and those of his supporters, he did not win a landslide. He won a decisive victory, but still only won a plurality, not a majority of the popular vote and the 47th largest electoral college margin in history. His favorabiity in his honeymoon period is 47%. The Republican majority in the House of Representatives is based on a handful of members in a very fractious caucus. His election victory was based on a rejection of Biden and the chaos people felt characterized the Biden years, not a full-throated embrace of Trump. He’s trying for a “shock and awe” approach to flood the zone with so much crap that his opposition are saturated and can’t respond, but he’s also taking damage as people notice what he’s doing and lash out.
What Canada needs to do is hunker down, manage the damage from Trump’s sanctions and hostility, and figure out how to help him hurt himself. Retaliatory tariffs have to be calibrated to cause Trump domestic political pain and to look like an ass. How do you feed Trump’s opponents ammunition to hurt him with? “Asshole Canada” is a good approach. Do it deliberately to hurt Trump while delivering long term benefit for Canada.
The other approach is go kamikaze: approach Trump, say “we want to enter negotiations to join the U.S.”. Set the terms at suspension of tariffs during negotiations. Ask to be states 51-60. Demand the US exchange all Canadian dollars at parity. Insist the US include language protections for the French language and First Nations treaties in the US Constitution. Ask them to add a maple leaf to the flag. Insist the US join the British Commonwealth. Jam the system and make Trump negotiate. Suck him in and let the US political parties figure out that bringing in Canada basically guarantees that the Republicans won’t win another federal election for the next 20 years. Give Trump a big hug and smile as we detonate the explosive vest.
Excellent article, please sign me up for asshole nation. I read an Ezra Klein article in the NY Times today, Dont Believe Him was the title. It speaks to muzzle velocity, a Steve Bannon idea that he shared on PBS Frontline in 2019. Bannon talks about flooding the zone, overwhelm with executive orders or announcements, thats what Klein thinks trump is doing now. I believe we need to do something radical and unexpected. I love your idea about getting trudeau and freeland out and bring back parliament but I do not believe that will happen with trudeau or freeland. They arent going anywhere and trudeaus ego probably got recharged after getting some attention on Saturday night. Thanks Cathy L
I haven’t seen much panic, but also haven’t been on Facebook today. I will say though, that I’m pissed at Trudeau and every other politician that thinks retaliatory tariffs is the way to go rather than investing in Canada and supporting businesses impacted by the tariffs. The impact of US tariffs on Canada would be a whole lot smaller if Canada wasn’t retaliating. The fact that they’re stuck in a pissing match rather than acting strategically just gets me fired up. (I was fired up 2 weeks ago already.)
For those saying put your MP on speed dial, I hate to break it to you, but contacting an MP does very little. It does even less if your MP is in opposition. Yes you may get an email, or a nice response. But nothing will change. I’ve trialed this for many issues in the past and have seen exactly zero impact from it.
We need an election. And o hope someone in the conservative caucus is smart enough to stop the retaliatory tariff idea and instead focus on building state capacity back up in Canada. Canadians don’t need inflation from our own tariffs on top of the other things that will come from the US tariffs.
Politically, you have to respond whether you should or not.
We must build alliances with other countries. Now.
Several weeks ago, The Economist suggested, tongue in cheek, that Canada should become part of the European Union. Obviously, that's a step too far. But we could tighten trade agreements, swap mobility rights, encourage investment and work jointly on sectoral programs. Reciprocal recognition of educational qualifications.
We must stop lecturing other nations on human rights, and on the proper way to run a cdmocracy. We should approach others as equals, not inferiors.
Above all else, we should get closer to Mexico and other countries in Latin America. How many of our schools offer classes in Spanish (or Portuguese)? How many agreements are there between Canadian and Mexican universities? How many joint ventures? How much respect?
Such measures take time. We should have started long ago. But we can still start now.
Ok, but we have kind of been assholes for 10 years. 2 critical allies came to us for help with natural gas and we sent them away empty handed because we didn’t want to upset the environmental lobby. We threw Mexico under the bus less than 2 months ago. The Liberals/NDP have been playing footsies with the Kalistani movement at the expense of Indian relations for a few seats in Surrey.
You think these countries look at us the same way?
Actions have consequences.
In the last two years the Liberal government turned away Germany and Japan when they came asking about LNG. Now, European imports of Russian LNG have never been higher. Opportunities of any type, not just LNG, are disappearing.
I'm sure Germany and Japan are looking at our situation and saying, "oh that's terrible, anyway...."
But smug scolding is our well honed brand - can it really be that it doesn't work?
We have CETA remember? But it does not seem like we are doing anything with it. From a consumer perspective I see nothing with Europe that was not there before.
Being part of the EU doesn't necessarily seem a step too far at all. All options on the table
Defining Canada's win as preserving our independence is good. I think we can be more ambitious by defining our win as steadily separating ourselves from the United States as much as possible. The more separate we are, the less leverage America has and the less it matters to us when the US Gov't proceeds in nearly inexpicable directions as it's doing now. Here is a sketch of what that looks like: (1) tidewater pipelines and replacing Line 5 with a trans-Canadian pipeline to provide western fuel to eastern Canada; (2) directing our mineral and farm exports to world markets - and reconfiguring our farm sector (more grain & oilseeds, less beef) to match international market opportunities, not American; (3) replacing American fast-moving consumer goods (including those produced in branch plants) with Canadian brands - we shouldn't rely on the US for salad dressing and window cleaner; (4) regulating or banning US digital media giants doing business here, replacing them with Crown corp. (a lot of what they do is digital infrastructure that should not be privately owned) where feasible; (5) building up our defence industrial base so that we can equip the CAF with Canadian-designed missiles, drones and other seemingly not-too-complex weapons tech (after all Iran can produce drones that Russia finds useful in Ukraine so how hard is that tech); (6) purging our foreign policy ecosystem (think tanks, universities) of "Atlanticist" or pro-American thinkers by simplying freezing them out - we want Canadian nationalist advice; (7) ending our Five Eyes and other intelligence joint ventures with foreign and even Commonwealth countries - rebuilding a nationalist, Canadian intelligence corps; and (8) tightening border control and crime suppression state capacity not because the US demands it but because we want it (few illegal migrants in or out; rapid refugee adjudication usually ending in denial; no illegal migrants in the workforce; ending the tacit acceptance of organized crime (the RCMP says 4,000 organized crime groups operate here) and money laundering. We need a strong, component state (as you so wisely remind us) that brings Peace, Order and Good Government to life. We may face hybrid warfare from the US in the deporations space (directing those expelled from the US northward), the organized crime/terrorism space (looking to gin up trouble here in Canada) or the public diplomacy space (broadcasting to the world Canada's lax attitude to suppressing crime). The more separate our economy is, the more we handle defence on our own and the more capable our state is at controlling what happens at and within our borders, the more immune we will be to the threats we may soon be facing from the south.
“Team Canada” & “We got your backs” - Liberal speak for “how do we funnel more money from the Canadian Treasury to our “friends”! The Liberals are the green-grifters, the net-zero people, the leaders of this colonial genocidal post national state - the Liberal Party’s motto - about to be led by the “outsider” Carney! Should they be anywhere near the government of Canada after the next election - the east west unity of Canada is at stake! I am fully on board with psycho Canada NOW!
It’s far too early to tell what will happen to the trade patterns this week, but on a worst case scenario any business entity that has inventory destined for the US may have just seen 25% of the book value evaporate into thin air.
Do readers have any idea what lenders think about that, where overnight a clean balance sheet turns into an ugly mess? Where the friendly account manager cuts back on lines of credit and demands increases in security against one?
This is an ugly, ugly mess, and the “we have your back” BS is insulting to the small business owners who finally got back on track from the pandemic only to get blind sided again.
Thank you for this.
WRT your assessment about the "dicking around" our elites (at both the federal and provincial levels), I would agree. "They" haven't covered themselves in glory.
However, in their defence (I say this with tongue planted firmly in cheek), many people in Canada were, until the past week or so, kidding themselves into thinking that Trump's attacks on us were simply about negotiating (something or other).
It is not. Your "anonymous contributor" was spot on about the weird and altogether alarming dynamic in the court of "the aging king". Something big is happening in the United States and we (together with Mexico and many other allies of the United States) will be little more than cannon fodder.
WRT Canada's ability to withstand the onslaught, I believe that your contributor was wrong. But I do not for one moment believe that our struggle with this revanchist, 19th Century redux of an administration / country will be easy.
We are in for serious pain as a country. Millions of our fellow citizens will suffer the indignity of being thrown out of their jobs (and some out of their houses). It will be ugly.
But we will also discover, I think, that we do value the things that make us distinct from "that lot" down south. To the extent that this makes us strong, then it will be a good thing.
Hopefully we will lose a lot of our mistaken assumptions (about the Americans--and about ourselves). For my part, I hope that mistaken assumption No. 1 is the belief that we do not need to spend (a lot more) on the defence of our country (military and intelligence gathering) and on building sustained relationships with the rest-of-the-world EX-USA. We've been neglectful for at least 35 years on this score... it cannot go on.