Geoff Russ: How the Mark Carney bubble might burst

There is certainly great appeal in the new PM’s technocratic, but old-school image, and it play wells in the environment of the second Trump presidency.

By: Geoff Russ

Canada does not just have a new prime minister, it has a viceroy. It is remarkable that Mark Carney’s résumé lacks a knighthood, as his public image harkens back to a bygone era of Old Stock manners and professionalism.

Carney made his reputation as a reliable technocrat on both sides of the Atlantic, starting at the Bank of Canada before hopping the pond to head the Bank of England. He speaks in a polished, measured tone that is expected at functions in the City of London, the prestige of which Bay Street can only aspire to.

Apparently an avowed monarchist and well-tailored gentleman, Carney is a true Dominion man, at least on the surface. This is the idea and image of Carney that will go into the federal election.

Once the veil falls, however, and the man is left out in the open without a script, the inexperienced, testy new politician is exposed. Those weaknesses are obvious, and could sink his premiership in its infancy after the writ drops, which could come as soon as this weekend.

Carney’s credentials are certainly not among those weaknesses, and his résumé is undeniably elite. It is rare that a man can serve as governor of the BoC and make a smooth lateral move to the BoE.

Prior to his career in central banking, Carney’s time at Goldman Sachs and other roles in international commerce made his name in the world of Anglo-Saxon finance. Were it not for his Irish, Catholic heritage, he would be a WASP’s WASP.

After finishing up in Britain and rejoining the private sector at Brookfield Asset Management, Carney came back to Canada and slotted into the role of prime minister without a hitch.

The ease with which the former BoE governor went from spending time at Wimbledon and presumably sipping tea with British aristocrats to assuming leadership of the Canadian government mirrors a career straight out of the British Empire. It is not entirely unlike how Lord Louis Mountbatten moved up from being a naval commander to Viceroy of India in 1947, with Carney returning from high court to put the unruly Dominion of Canada back in order.

Never one to miss an opportunity to praise the Royal Family, Carney’s mourning of the late Prince Philip and warm relations with King Charles III could make him into a minor character in future seasons of The Crown.

Moments after being sworn in as prime minister, Carney made sure to praise Canada’s “proud British heritage,” in an implicit rebuke of Justin Trudeau’s post-nationalist vision of the country. It was gobsmacking to hear from the leader of the Liberal Party, which has continuously undermined the British connection since first forming a government in 2015.

Old-school, Don Cherry-style Canadian patriots must be waiting with bated breath to hear if Carney will be reintroducing the Red Ensign anytime soon. There is certainly great appeal in the new prime minister’s technocratic, but old school image, and it does play well in the environment of the second Trump presidency.

The Conservatives' worst nightmare has come true, with their former 20 point lead evaporating since Carney became PM, with the Liberals now actually leading most polls. However, so much of this is wrapped up in the idea of Carney, a man who remains untested and has been largely sheltered thus far. He does not perform well under the smallest of pressures, like his Monday press conference in which he became combative with the Globe’s Stephanie Levitz and the CBC’s Rosemary Barton. Both reporters had questioned the opaque status of Carney’s considerable assets, which he has placed in a blind trust, but he still must fully disclose his assets within 60 days of becoming prime minister. Carney’s tendency to snap when questioned about sensitive topics is a bad omen for what will be a vicious, cutthroat election campaign.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is a political animal whose first instinct is to take the gloves off. If Carney cannot handle tough but necessary questions from the press, can he be trusted to lead a campaign where everything must go right for the Liberals for them to stay in government?

The newfound Liberal support could well prove a bubble. While it is not guaranteed to pop, data has found that the Liberal support is much softer than the Conservative base that has grown considerably since 2021, and a good campaign from Poilievre will crush the Liberals if Carney falters.

Poilievre is a much better public speaker than the steady but plodding Carney, and has the natural political instincts borne of two decades as an elected politician. Without taking anything away from Carney’s professional experience, he is still a parachuted leader, and he has shown that he does flinch under pressure.

Carney the man needs to match the promise of his image, and if he does not, he will go down as Canada’s shortest-serving prime minister. Assuming the writ drops on Sunday as expected, Carney will be going in with no significant policy achievements, and only his viceroy-like image to scaffold him. That just may be enough if Carney can run a smooth campaign, but he is on the thinnest ice possible and the smallest cracks could sink him.

Geoff Russ is a Vancouver-based writer and resource sector policy analyst. His work has appeared in the National Post, the Spectator Australia, Northern Beat, the Australian Financial Review, and Modern Age. He was formerly a reporter with The Hub.

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