Greg Quinn: Brace yourself, Canada. The carefree days are over
From an outsider's perspective, life is clearly about to get very real for you Canadians. Trump is smiling at your weakness.
By: Greg Quinn
Since Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November 2024 there has been much comment about things he has said. These include suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state (and that by doing so Canadians would be better off — especially tax-wise); that Canada needs to do more to secure its border with the U.S.; that he would impose tariffs of 25 per cent on imported goods from Canada; and that Wayne Gretzky should run to be prime minister.
For those of us of a certain age we might be reminded of the song “Blame Canada” from the 1999 South Park movie.
As an interested outsider in all things Canada permit me to provide some thoughts on what Canada’s relationship with America is likely to be in the cold hard light of a second Trump presidency.
There is no doubt President-elect Trump will want Canada to pull its weight and that he (like many others — see my previous articles in The Line here and here) will be looking to Canada to pony up more cash on defence. Trump’s demands with regard to border security are part of that and he clearly is fed up with what he sees as Canada freeloading on U.S. defence resources.
It is important to note, however, that Trump thinks the same about large parts of NATO, so Canada shouldn’t feel too upset about this. Still, this is a needed wake-up call for a country which has, for so long, talked the talk and not walked the walk.
Readers will also note Trump’s recent comments that NATO members should spend five per cent of GDP on defence — the current target (which Canada isn’t close to meeting) is two per cent. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it is time for Canada to do better on defence — sooner rather than later.
Personally, I would simply suggest that Trump’s comments about Canada becoming the 51st state of the U.S. are just typical hyperbole. But they should not be seen as off-the-cuff. I am sure they are deliberate, intended by Trump to fire a shot across the bow of Canada. The message seems clear: there will be no more free rides.
In this respect his comments were likely aimed as much at Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It is clear that Trump has no love for the latter — pictures from Trudeau’s “summoning” to Mar-a-Lago show little but the disdain Trump has for Trudeau. He is clearly also in the group that believes the Conservatives are a shoe-in for the next election (and to be honest, given the continual tanking in Liberal support. it’s hard to argue with that). So Trump no doubt wants to just remind Poilievre that he also will not get a free ride.
Trump’s comments about adding tariffs of 25 per cent to Canadian made goods imported into the U.S. led to much anger and bluster in Canada — led by Premier Doug Ford of Ontario, who talked of retaliatory measures. That was a brave choice, I think, because, frankly, Canada needs the U.S. far more than the reverse. And Trump knows that.
It seems at this moment that the biggest question is simply whether Trump is serious about any of this. I would say that without some real concessions on Canada’s part the answer to that would be, yes. Trump has a history on tariffs and actions on the economy which shouldn’t be ignored and he has made good on economic threats in the past. Look at what happened during his first term and the changes made to the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement which effectively saw Canada and Mexico fold in the face of U.S. threats. Both junior partners made concessions which, incidentally, do not appear to have been reversed by Joe Biden.
What are we to make of Trump’s comments about Wayne Gretzky? Specifically, a Christmas Day post on Truth Social:
Once more I doubt this is a serious proposal (although Gretzky would certainly be popular as PM in some circles). But such comments should once again be seen as Trump expecting more from Canada in the years ahead.
At the end of the day, what does all this mean for Canada and its relationship with the U.S.? To me the answer to that is simple — Canada’s carefree days of talking the talk and not walking the walk, of living freely under the U.S. umbrella without contributing or making concessions, are long gone. Premiers, prime ministers and ministers can spin and bluster all they want. But the reality is that, for Canada, the U.S. is too big a neighbour and too important an economic partner to piss off.
This is not to say that Canada is going to become a vassal (or the 51st state) of the U.S. — of course it won’t. But the Canadian government and people are going to have to make some hard choices and possibly slaughter some sacred cows to ensure prosperity in future years. Already the threats are working, with $1.3 billion committed in the Fall Economic Statement to securing Canada’s border (Trump probably can’t believe how easy that was).
Will Trudeau’s recent decision to “resign” (in due course and once he gets round to it) and proroguing Parliament (which, incidentally, in a truly representative democracy is a very bad look) make any difference?
In all honesty, and in the grand scheme of things, probably no. As I’ve said above Trump’s comments are as much aimed at Poilievre as Trudeau. Trump will be looking up north and smiling at the chaos. He will see a weakened Canada focused on internal issues and a lame duck PM who is in no position to lead a united and strong Canadian approach to the U.S. Until an election takes place this weakness will only get worse and the ability of Canada to stand-up to the U.S. will be ever diminished.
Even if Trump doesn’t really want Canada as the 51st state, what he does want is a Canada that is weak and disunited. That is exactly what he has at the minute, giving him an opportunity to both make mischief and gain concessions.
The longer the chaos in the Canadian political system continues the better it will be for him. The failure of Trudeau to see the impact of his actions on the country he leads does not reflect well on the man. This strikes me as yet another example of him putting himself and his party before country.
All this means is that it is going to be a rough ride for Canada. But then, in many ways, Canada under Trudeau has gotten away with far too much for far too long when it comes to its relations with the U.S. and other partners. A reality check is needed and President-elect Trump seems happy to provide that.
Greg Quinn OBE is a former British diplomat who has served in Estonia, Ghana, Belarus, Iraq, Washington DC, Kazakhstan, Guyana, Suriname, The Bahamas, Canada, and Antigua and Barbuda in addition to stints in London. He now runs his own government relations, business development and crisis management consultancy, Aodhan Consultancy Ltd.
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Mr Quinn just said a lot of what Canadians know already. The best thing that the Trump presidency can do for Canada is free trade. Free trade within Canada that is. Doing away with some of the ridiculous rules and regulations between provinces would boost the Canadian economy by billions. Lets hope a new Prime Minister can begin to work with the Premiers to get the economy rolling.
We offer much space,time before any country can reach the US border from the North. That said,its lack of security and monitoring is our and the US ‘Achilles Heel’. Trump is right,Russian and Chinese ships are cruising the Arctic. Hell,Canada has not even mapped the ocean floor.