Greg Quinn: Canada needs to treat the United States like just another country

Breaking with its long-time ally on fighter jets is a good start.

By: Greg Quinn

In my piece for The Line in April I argued that Canada should join the U.K., Italy and Japan in the snazzily titled Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP). It has now done so as the first observer nation.

Thank you, Canada, and welcome to the party!

While any program of this size is open to some risk, the reality is that, in the current world we find ourselves in, there is little alternative. Especially now that the competing Franco-German fighter program has fallen by the wayside over apparent internal bickering. Can we expect Germany to now join GCAP?

What is the reality mentioned above? Well, for all of us, and Canada most obviously, it is an unreliable and untrustworthy United States, led by a president who, with every passing day, shows that unreliability ever more.

The United States launched a conflict against Iran that has caused huge global economic turmoil and whose main goal now is to open up the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the conflict began. All the conflict seems to have achieved is to have made clear how vulnerable the Strait is to Iranian control.

Then we have new claims to Greenland, attacks on USMCA and, perhaps most spectacularly, a threat to put tariffs on Canada as a result of wildfires (while also levying other ones on various loose justifications). Even Monty Python might have said something like that was far too outlandish.

All of this shows that those of us who are like-minded need to work together and get away from any belief that we can rely on the United States come what may. Those days are past. It’s time for us to accept that.

However, while joining GCAP is a good step, Canada needs to be careful about any attempt to placate or mollify the United States. Yes, diplomacy is good, talking is good, but bending over backwards to placate an unfriendly supposed ally is not good.

There are therefore questions to be answered about the changes to the agreement on the Gordie Howe International Bridge. The Conservative Party of Canada doesn’t seem to be completely clear about where its loyalties lie — is America a threat to be united against, or a political opportunity to be exploited? And the referendum in Alberta has all the hallmarks of trouble and potential interference by erstwhile allies down south.

So, from the perspective of this Brit, Canada needs to stand strong. Maybe it is trying to be all things to all men. That probably isn’t going to work and risks satisfying no one. And while it is good to talk, ultimately Canada will have to decide where it wants to stand. With us like-minded or with an unreliable neighbour. Because it won’t be able to do both.

Notwithstanding that it is a big and powerful neighbour.

To me Canada’s future lies with those who share its values. Mark Carney has spoken at length about the importance of middle powers standing together. That becomes ever more important as every day passes.

Part of that does, however, mean that the United States simply becomes another country. One to be dealt with exactly like any other — be that China or Russia or whomever. One that cannot be relied upon and which will act in its own interests.

That is the clear U.S. approach now. Sometimes that interest will align with Canada and the rest of us, sometimes it won’t. It is important that we accept this reality.

It is also important that we don’t think this will change in any future U.S. administration. There has been a generational shift in U.S. politics. The more selfless U.S. of old has gone. It’s been replaced by a more selfish country — determined to do what it thinks is best for it.

I have no problem with that. It is unfortunate, but the world is one of reality, not idealism. We need to accept that is the Unites States’ choice and deal with it.

That does, however, mean that we need to pick sides. We cannot sit on the fence and try and make everyone happy. Picking sides will be difficult, it will cause stress, but it is the way it has to be.

Canada will be more affected than others, I suspect. But to paraphrase, the road to success is paved with good intentions and hope. As an old boss of mine once said, “hope is not a policy.” What is needed is firmness and working with those who share your views.

Canada, the U.K., the EU, Australia and New Zealand (among others) need to be clear about where we stand and not afraid to upset the United States.

Is Canada willing and able to do that?

Greg Quinn OBE is a former British Diplomat who has served in Estonia, Ghana, Belarus, Iraq, Washington DC (seconded to State Department), Kazakhstan, Guyana (as High Commissioner), Suriname (as Ambassador), The Bahamas (as High Commissioner), Canada (as Consul General Toronto and Calgary), and Antigua and Barbuda (as resident British Commissioner) in addition to stints in London. He now runs his own government relations, business development and crisis management consultancy: Aodhan Consultancy Ltd (www.aodhaninc.co.uk).

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