Greg Quinn: Take it from a Brit, Albertan friends. Breaking up isn't fun
A referendum is a bad way for Smith to deal with the extremists in her own party who want to separate from Canada. Just ask David Cameron.
By: Greg Quinn
Okay Alberta, I love you — I really do. Calgary is huge fun and the Rockies are beyond spectacular. Even Edmonton has a few nice things going for it. Drumheller and the Badlands are amazing, and I miss Peter’s Drive-In in Red Deer. Although I have to be honest and say I still prefer the Winnipeg Jets to either the Flames or the Oilers (although Mrs. Q is a fan of the Flames).
But can y’all just stop and think a little about what leaving Canada might mean? Take this from a Brit who has seen some nine years of post-Brexit fun and games.
It all sounds nice until it happens and reality dawns. The problems with making it actually happen are but the start — never mind the ultimate economic impact of doing so.
I had a friend who was working on the process of making Brexit happen after the referendum to leave the European Union took place. One night, over a beer in Whitehall, he told me with absolute exasperation that it was like pulling a thread on a jumper. You’d find the solution to one problem and pull the thread to remove it. All well and good — except in doing so, you would loosen 10 more threads and create 10 more problems for yourself to solve. And on and on it went.
I also urge Premier Smith to just think a little before she moves forward with legislation that could make any vote easier to move forward with. Especially if she thinks it is a way of dealing with the extremists in her own party who support and want to separate from Canada.
Let me break this to you gently — that won’t work.
David Cameron, the U.K. prime minister who called the Brexit referendum, had a problem with the anti-EU extreme in his party. He came up with the clever wheeze of a referendum to appease them, as he couldn’t believe the country would actually vote for Brexit. Maybe he thought it would be akin to turkeys voting for Christmas.
This was, however, a spectacular failure to read the country. There are myriad reasons why the referendum succeeded, but I suspect only part of it was that people actually hated the EU (although, to be fair, the EU didn’t really do much to endear itself to people during the campaign period). Indeed, many (especially outside the urban elites of the southeast of England) saw the vote as an opportunity to give a black eye to those “experts” who kept telling them what was best without actually understanding the problems faced by people in those areas.
And now we are all living with the consequences of a politician’s failure to read the room. Not the first time, and not the last time.
Cameron resigned the day after the vote, took up a cushy private-sector job, and left the rest of us to deal with a succession of prime ministers — culminating in the worst in the history of the country: Liz Truss.
I get that Ottawa annoys Albertans. I get that Toronto is seen as being a bit full of itself. And I get that you don’t understand why Quebec seems to be able to get away with anything and everything because it speaks French.
I really do get those frustrations. Similar frustrations (including about French speakers) played into the Brexit vote.
But I urge caution — don’t cut off your nose to spite your face. Better to be inside the tent trying to effect change than being outside the tent and being told what to do.
Be a bit more strategic. Use the strength of feeling and the economic strength of Alberta to make those changes.
Does anyone really believe that becoming independent or joining as the 51st state is really going to benefit Albertans? Of course it won’t — Alberta will simply become a bit player, its resources taken for the benefit of others.
How is that different from now, some might add? A fair point — and once again, I understand the frustration. The federal government also needs to do its bit and show that it understands the anger of Albertans and Western Canada, and that it has a plan to address these.
Populist moves don’t benefit countries or people in the long term. They simply cause more pain and damage. We see what is happening in the U.S. Reform UK is most likely leading the U.K. down a path of even more self-inflicted damage.
And, at the end of the day, it isn’t the politicians who suffer (I refer to David Cameron above — or even Liz Truss). It is the ordinary person — in Calgary, Edmonton, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Wainwright, Fort McMurray, Hinton, etc., etc. — who will suffer. And who ultimately might live to regret the decision.
So be careful what you wish for, Alberta. It may not be the shining Nirvana you expect.
Greg Quinn, OBE, is a former British diplomat who has served in Estonia, Ghana, Belarus, Iraq, Washington, D.C. (seconded to the State Department), Kazakhstan, Guyana (as high commissioner), Suriname (as ambassador), The Bahamas (as high commissioner), Canada (as consul general in Toronto and Calgary), and Antigua and Barbuda (as resident British commissioner), in addition to stints in London. He now runs his own government relations, business development and crisis management consultancy: Aodhan Consultancy Ltd.
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The current PM, the current Opposition Leader, and the Interim Leader of whatever the NDP is, were all born and raised in Alberta. I may be incorrect, but I believe that's unprecedented.
Also, the G7 Leadership is coming to Alberta in a month.
If there were ever an opportune time to work WITH, rather than AGAINST, the federal political leadership of Canada, it would be RIGHT NOW.
Despite throwing bones at the separatist sentiment in her caucus and the province, I sincerely hope that it is Smith's strategy, as she has publicly stated, that Alberta AND Canada are strongest with Alberta as an integral, contributing part of Canada, not threatening to split from it.
Ottawa is actively working to destroy Alberta's wealth while sucking out cash where it can. Smith has drawn a line in the sand saying reverse your 10 years of destroying our economy. Canada can easily do that. Canada should do that because that is the only reliable source of foreign cash in the near term. It is simplicity and condescending to say this is frustration with Ottawa. In actively working to destroy Alberta and Saskatchewan oil and gas Canada has impoverished itself. Smith is talking about steps necessary for Canada the country to grow. How Canada reacts to Smith will determine more than Alberta's future, it is Canada's future that is at risk. This is a wake up call for Ottawa not an expression of frustration. In terms of Brexit and haphazard thoughts, in Canada, unlike the UK, we have the Clarity act where 50% +1 on a clear question determines the foundation for separation which would be aided by foreign recognition and triggers negotiations. We have been through a 50 +.05% separation battle in the past which created the need for the Clarity Act. Hence it's name. We have processes in place for precisely this kind of event. Doomberg has been prescient in calling the steps that have been unfolding here in Canada since last October. His prediction and I agree, is we wind up in a constitutional crisis triggered by Smith with major compromise by both parties resulting in more oil and gas unencumbered by caps going to tidewater in BC and potentially Churchill Falls. As his forecast for Canada turned out eerily accurate I now hope he is right. Smith has to do what she is doing. Trudeau set this table purposefully. Time for Carney to step up.