I would argue the Middle East is finally getting resolved. UAE has left OPEC and all the countries have united with Israel. Iranian funding of terrorism around the world has come to an end. This may be the crowning jewel of anything Trump has done or will do. Heck, even the Israeli currency is on a tear.
The Iranian regime is still in place. Iran hasn't renounced its nuclear weapons program, and still retains the know-how to re-build enrichment facilities and produce more weapons-grade material. They've now also got the motivation to finally proceed with building the actual weapons, which the previous regime leadership had shied away from for fear of provoking an American attempt at regime change. Finally, Iran has basically declared de facto sovereignty over the international strait of Hormuz, is setting up to control traffic and extract revenue through tolls, AND the Trump administration has all but conceded this.
No, the Middle East is not getting resolved. Trump's thrown rocks at a hornet's nest and is trying to claim that knocking the nest off the tree is good enough, nevermind that the swarm is attacking everybody around and will rebuild the nest.
Good comment ....... however the big Fanatical Mullahs affairs is not over by a long shot. Years away. Study up on the hard and deep fanaticism of the Shia Muslim sect to which the Iranian clerics and the IRGC belong.
When things are needed we will always wish we had spent more. I see our military, as one example, to be an insurance policy for the country. Like a home insurance policy you have likely chosen to purchase, based upon a variety of concerns, you have decided at this time to spend X dollars. The night your home burns down, you'll wish you had spent more. The day we need our military or any capacity we will wish we had spent more, done more etc.
No easy answers for it. I do like to scales such problems down to a level I can understand easier, like my household expenses, as a way to understand,
Good article, especially the sentence on Canada's development "My original prescription was basically right. What I underestimated was how inadequately we are equipped to follow it." It's possible that it's in Canada's best interest that items like better angels and holding critical minerals over others' heads do not work. Canada needs to get serious about developing as we can and better functioning as a nation. Elbows up does not work with adults.
It's frightening that the Carney Liberals refuse to get competitive with the rest of the world, for example by cutting CCUS. There's talk of the Liberals making uncompetitive rules/ requirements, paying for them, and demanding more money than ever. The Liberals are not adjusting to now, they are flagrantly spurring on separatism.
The Carney Liberals need to drop anything uncompetitive while retaining human rights, tax the private businesses that build the pipelines, railways, etc at an internationally competitive rate, and other wise stay out of it. That's the fastest and best way of getting to a government that can afford more health and social costs. But our PM is elsewhere rather than building here.
Carney is in Europe talking about a new social order. Why? To adopt an European model? His personal career planning? World order seems like policies creating poor economies like Europe has, taxes spent by a largely unfettered elite like Europe has, and ignoring opportunities. How can central Canadian seniors who voted for Carney not be disappointed. Do they never read?
What fundamentally unites Trump's coalition is a sense of grievance: they think they and America have been taken advantage of, treated unfairly, denied opportunities that should belong to them. They're also united in their preferred solution: exerting dominance over others, and using humiliation as a tool to prove it.
Trump's geopolitical conception of the world seems to be that of a mafia don: he's the boss of his territory, everybody in his territory has to do what he says and pay tribute. He regards Xi and Putin as rival heads of their own territories, to be given a free had in their turf and granted deference for their status. Again, the theme is dominance over others. America (particularly as embodied by Trump) is the boss, and the rest of us are supposed to be subservient.
It's a very old-fashioned, primitive view of the world: it wouldn't be out of place in a patrimonial society like ancient Rome. It's also a trap that leads to economic and social stagnation, punctuated by regular wars.
The premise that the US will go back to its Pre Trump ways are wrong. It has acted like this For 8 of the last 12 years. This must be treated as the new norm.
We no longer have the luxury of waiting for capacity to build itself. To survive an unconstrained American state, we must become the only thing they respect: a hard target.
END QUOTE
Spot on. Anyone in this country who is still complacent about Americans and their intentions needs serious psychotherapy.
We face a number of clear-and-present threats from the US of A and we should be full-bore focused on those threats, including the very real threat to destroy our sovereignty.
I'm worried that the push to boost the military is still seen by some in the governing party as "an option" that can be put off a little longer (why weren't specific military spending programs laid out in Mr Champagne's rather underwhelming budget update?).
I also worry about established modes of thinking amongst the Liberal Party establishment, and also in the federal public service, insofar as what is "normal" in the United States is concerned.
As for the Conservative Party, well, under its current leader the party has c-o-m-p-l-e-t-e-l-y dropped the ball WRT the threats from the United States and Trump in particular. I am very concerned in particular about how cowardly Mr Poilievre and company have been in staring down the reprehensible separatist movement in Alberta, which increasingly looks to me to be a fifth column for MAGA in Canada.
As for the Alberta premier, we have a serious problem because she apparently does not want to take a clear stand in defence of the country and to speak up about the importance of Alberta's place in Canada.
There are a couple of good sentences in this comment.
"Anyone in this country who is still complacent about Carney and "Liberals" and their intentions needs serious psychotherapy."
"We face a number of clear-and-present threats from the Chinese Communist Party and we should be full-bore focused on those threats, including the very real threat of Mark Carney The Proven Liar selling out our sovereignty to the Chinese Communist Party."
Worry heck of a lot more about China than the USA.
The last two paragraphs get a very heavy downvote.
It is a stupid new idea, yes. Will not happen. The more dangerous situation though is the longtime CCP increasing influence, aided and abetted by Mark Carney and his gang.
The comments you've offered could be construed as affirmation of my contention, i.e.: that the Conservative Party of Canada is not taking the threat posed by the United States seriously enough.
However, I realize that to assert such would be unfair, as I do not know whether you are affiliated with the Conservative Party.
Be that as it may, China is far away and poses no serious geostrategic threat to Canada. A rogue USA would, as the country is right next door (and in fact "all around" Canada), and is the most powerful country on the face of the planet.
"To survive an unconstrained American state, we must become the only thing they respect: a hard target." True...but it's always been true. Why have we dithered?
Mr. Trump has defined Canada's opportunity to continue...or fail. For that, I thank him.
Trump is the figurehead. The oligarchs controlling the GOP are the cancer. There are no guardrails on Trump's actions, and it's clear that decisions are made by throwing things at a spinning dartboard. The US is finished as a democracy until it proves otherwise. It should never be trusted or relied upon again. Vance is owned by Peter Thiel. That won't change a thing, except there will be fewer hysterically stupid sound bites coming out of the White House. 35% or Americans are either remarkably stupid, openly racist, or both.
I agree with your sentiments about Canada not being able to overcome its traditional inertia to match the moment. I hope it doesn't cost us more than it already has.
I don't think this is really a useful frame. There are lots of powerful players in the Trump administration and GOP who have malign intent. But the obsequious public displays of loyalty to Trump would make Kim Jong Un blush. Whatever random nonsense Trump spits out becomes policy/doctrine, at least until he changes his mind.
In that sense, he has both more and less control over the government than the typical President. Less, because the people he has appointed are more inclined than usual to do whatever they want and less capable of managing the government, but also more because whatever he says becomes a new litmus test. Like the eye of Sauron you better be doing what he wants if he is looking.
These are two separate but related problems, not one problem with a figurehead covering it up.
Based on how they voted in 2024, with the knowledge available? No, I have little faith they'll get it right this time...although the coming spike in gas prices could flip the script. Voting will likely be much more difficult this time. As always with my predictions about the collapse of the US, I hope to be wrong.
To bring this closer to home, what can be said about the vast economic and social damage the "Liberals" and progressives have heaped upon Canada:
"....That this damage continues to be successfully waved aside as short-term pain for long-term gain (most recently on the price of gas), and that this framing remains largely believed by "Liberals" and their voter base , reflects serious cognitive dissonance by a section of the electorate. There is no other way to characterize it, except to say it resembles a form of endless blind faith."
A more accurate expression:" America has proven dangerous because its state is now unconstrained; we are vulnerable because our state IS and has been for many years under-IQed."
You're right, talk is easy, the hard work "may" be starting but the proof of that pudding will be in the tasting and we're a long ways away from picking up the spoon.
He has been a Republican for about fifteen minutes, and certainly nothing resembling a conservative.
Much of the foreign policy action has been about opportunity. I pray, that within my lifetime, the people of Iran and Cuba will again be free.
Trump has flubbed Russia and Ukraine. Is that a function of New Republicanism, or Trump himself.
The USA is not an unconstrained republic; the States, the Constitution, the Senate, the Judiciary, and the House are all functioning entities. None has been diminished or impaired as a result of President Trump.
There was never any real probability that Donald Trump would lead an annexation or takeover of Canada, Greenland, or anywhere else. This is, and always was, patently ridiculous.
I will offer Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney this: they took a childish, shipyard taunt, and turned it into an election victory, knowing full well that the usual suspects would run to seek cover beneath their tent of fear and anxiety.
Here we are, one year later, and no further ahead.
And the same timorous fools will line up to vote Liberal Party as soon as they can.
I would argue the Middle East is finally getting resolved. UAE has left OPEC and all the countries have united with Israel. Iranian funding of terrorism around the world has come to an end. This may be the crowning jewel of anything Trump has done or will do. Heck, even the Israeli currency is on a tear.
The Iranian regime is still in place. Iran hasn't renounced its nuclear weapons program, and still retains the know-how to re-build enrichment facilities and produce more weapons-grade material. They've now also got the motivation to finally proceed with building the actual weapons, which the previous regime leadership had shied away from for fear of provoking an American attempt at regime change. Finally, Iran has basically declared de facto sovereignty over the international strait of Hormuz, is setting up to control traffic and extract revenue through tolls, AND the Trump administration has all but conceded this.
No, the Middle East is not getting resolved. Trump's thrown rocks at a hornet's nest and is trying to claim that knocking the nest off the tree is good enough, nevermind that the swarm is attacking everybody around and will rebuild the nest.
Good comment ....... however the big Fanatical Mullahs affairs is not over by a long shot. Years away. Study up on the hard and deep fanaticism of the Shia Muslim sect to which the Iranian clerics and the IRGC belong.
This statement hurts me all the time: "What I underestimated was how inadequately we are equipped to follow it."
Oh, canada....
When things are needed we will always wish we had spent more. I see our military, as one example, to be an insurance policy for the country. Like a home insurance policy you have likely chosen to purchase, based upon a variety of concerns, you have decided at this time to spend X dollars. The night your home burns down, you'll wish you had spent more. The day we need our military or any capacity we will wish we had spent more, done more etc.
No easy answers for it. I do like to scales such problems down to a level I can understand easier, like my household expenses, as a way to understand,
Good article, especially the sentence on Canada's development "My original prescription was basically right. What I underestimated was how inadequately we are equipped to follow it." It's possible that it's in Canada's best interest that items like better angels and holding critical minerals over others' heads do not work. Canada needs to get serious about developing as we can and better functioning as a nation. Elbows up does not work with adults.
It's frightening that the Carney Liberals refuse to get competitive with the rest of the world, for example by cutting CCUS. There's talk of the Liberals making uncompetitive rules/ requirements, paying for them, and demanding more money than ever. The Liberals are not adjusting to now, they are flagrantly spurring on separatism.
The Carney Liberals need to drop anything uncompetitive while retaining human rights, tax the private businesses that build the pipelines, railways, etc at an internationally competitive rate, and other wise stay out of it. That's the fastest and best way of getting to a government that can afford more health and social costs. But our PM is elsewhere rather than building here.
Carney is in Europe talking about a new social order. Why? To adopt an European model? His personal career planning? World order seems like policies creating poor economies like Europe has, taxes spent by a largely unfettered elite like Europe has, and ignoring opportunities. How can central Canadian seniors who voted for Carney not be disappointed. Do they never read?
What fundamentally unites Trump's coalition is a sense of grievance: they think they and America have been taken advantage of, treated unfairly, denied opportunities that should belong to them. They're also united in their preferred solution: exerting dominance over others, and using humiliation as a tool to prove it.
Trump's geopolitical conception of the world seems to be that of a mafia don: he's the boss of his territory, everybody in his territory has to do what he says and pay tribute. He regards Xi and Putin as rival heads of their own territories, to be given a free had in their turf and granted deference for their status. Again, the theme is dominance over others. America (particularly as embodied by Trump) is the boss, and the rest of us are supposed to be subservient.
It's a very old-fashioned, primitive view of the world: it wouldn't be out of place in a patrimonial society like ancient Rome. It's also a trap that leads to economic and social stagnation, punctuated by regular wars.
The premise that the US will go back to its Pre Trump ways are wrong. It has acted like this For 8 of the last 12 years. This must be treated as the new norm.
Matt’s article
“Never Fing Again “ is the new normal
Most of those with TDS thought the 4 Biden years were peachy..
QUOTE
We no longer have the luxury of waiting for capacity to build itself. To survive an unconstrained American state, we must become the only thing they respect: a hard target.
END QUOTE
Spot on. Anyone in this country who is still complacent about Americans and their intentions needs serious psychotherapy.
We face a number of clear-and-present threats from the US of A and we should be full-bore focused on those threats, including the very real threat to destroy our sovereignty.
I'm worried that the push to boost the military is still seen by some in the governing party as "an option" that can be put off a little longer (why weren't specific military spending programs laid out in Mr Champagne's rather underwhelming budget update?).
I also worry about established modes of thinking amongst the Liberal Party establishment, and also in the federal public service, insofar as what is "normal" in the United States is concerned.
As for the Conservative Party, well, under its current leader the party has c-o-m-p-l-e-t-e-l-y dropped the ball WRT the threats from the United States and Trump in particular. I am very concerned in particular about how cowardly Mr Poilievre and company have been in staring down the reprehensible separatist movement in Alberta, which increasingly looks to me to be a fifth column for MAGA in Canada.
As for the Alberta premier, we have a serious problem because she apparently does not want to take a clear stand in defence of the country and to speak up about the importance of Alberta's place in Canada.
There are a couple of good sentences in this comment.
"Anyone in this country who is still complacent about Carney and "Liberals" and their intentions needs serious psychotherapy."
"We face a number of clear-and-present threats from the Chinese Communist Party and we should be full-bore focused on those threats, including the very real threat of Mark Carney The Proven Liar selling out our sovereignty to the Chinese Communist Party."
Worry heck of a lot more about China than the USA.
The last two paragraphs get a very heavy downvote.
Or giving away our sovereignty to the EU as he seems to be doing now. That scares the poop out of me.
It is a stupid new idea, yes. Will not happen. The more dangerous situation though is the longtime CCP increasing influence, aided and abetted by Mark Carney and his gang.
The comments you've offered could be construed as affirmation of my contention, i.e.: that the Conservative Party of Canada is not taking the threat posed by the United States seriously enough.
However, I realize that to assert such would be unfair, as I do not know whether you are affiliated with the Conservative Party.
Be that as it may, China is far away and poses no serious geostrategic threat to Canada. A rogue USA would, as the country is right next door (and in fact "all around" Canada), and is the most powerful country on the face of the planet.
WOW! My wife is shocked... I'm speechless.
Eat your pablum, Mr. Jack.
Don't go outdoors; there's weather out there.
"To survive an unconstrained American state, we must become the only thing they respect: a hard target." True...but it's always been true. Why have we dithered?
Mr. Trump has defined Canada's opportunity to continue...or fail. For that, I thank him.
Trump is the figurehead. The oligarchs controlling the GOP are the cancer. There are no guardrails on Trump's actions, and it's clear that decisions are made by throwing things at a spinning dartboard. The US is finished as a democracy until it proves otherwise. It should never be trusted or relied upon again. Vance is owned by Peter Thiel. That won't change a thing, except there will be fewer hysterically stupid sound bites coming out of the White House. 35% or Americans are either remarkably stupid, openly racist, or both.
I agree with your sentiments about Canada not being able to overcome its traditional inertia to match the moment. I hope it doesn't cost us more than it already has.
I don't think this is really a useful frame. There are lots of powerful players in the Trump administration and GOP who have malign intent. But the obsequious public displays of loyalty to Trump would make Kim Jong Un blush. Whatever random nonsense Trump spits out becomes policy/doctrine, at least until he changes his mind.
In that sense, he has both more and less control over the government than the typical President. Less, because the people he has appointed are more inclined than usual to do whatever they want and less capable of managing the government, but also more because whatever he says becomes a new litmus test. Like the eye of Sauron you better be doing what he wants if he is looking.
These are two separate but related problems, not one problem with a figurehead covering it up.
I'd agree except there isn't one single competent member of his cabinet either.
If 35% of Americans are stupid or racist, doesn't that provide some hope about the other 65%. Can't just write them off.
Based on how they voted in 2024, with the knowledge available? No, I have little faith they'll get it right this time...although the coming spike in gas prices could flip the script. Voting will likely be much more difficult this time. As always with my predictions about the collapse of the US, I hope to be wrong.
My point is 65% DIDN'T vote that way.
80 million didn't vote at all......that's the problem. Maybe they'll have figured out that voting matters.
To bring this closer to home, what can be said about the vast economic and social damage the "Liberals" and progressives have heaped upon Canada:
"....That this damage continues to be successfully waved aside as short-term pain for long-term gain (most recently on the price of gas), and that this framing remains largely believed by "Liberals" and their voter base , reflects serious cognitive dissonance by a section of the electorate. There is no other way to characterize it, except to say it resembles a form of endless blind faith."
A more accurate expression:" America has proven dangerous because its state is now unconstrained; we are vulnerable because our state IS and has been for many years under-IQed."
You're right, talk is easy, the hard work "may" be starting but the proof of that pudding will be in the tasting and we're a long ways away from picking up the spoon.
Appreciate the glass half full take on things.
Donald Trump is a lifelong Democrat.
He has been a Republican for about fifteen minutes, and certainly nothing resembling a conservative.
Much of the foreign policy action has been about opportunity. I pray, that within my lifetime, the people of Iran and Cuba will again be free.
Trump has flubbed Russia and Ukraine. Is that a function of New Republicanism, or Trump himself.
The USA is not an unconstrained republic; the States, the Constitution, the Senate, the Judiciary, and the House are all functioning entities. None has been diminished or impaired as a result of President Trump.
There was never any real probability that Donald Trump would lead an annexation or takeover of Canada, Greenland, or anywhere else. This is, and always was, patently ridiculous.
I will offer Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney this: they took a childish, shipyard taunt, and turned it into an election victory, knowing full well that the usual suspects would run to seek cover beneath their tent of fear and anxiety.
Here we are, one year later, and no further ahead.
And the same timorous fools will line up to vote Liberal Party as soon as they can.