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IceSkater40's avatar

I think Trudeau's announcement has 2 main probable outcomes - though it is possible both could happen.

1) after spending all his political capital on defending the exemption in it's current state, he agrees to review it, then eventually pauses it for all home heating. (Wait 1.5 weeks?)

2) the change in direction fractures the NDP coalition and he gets forced into an election that he doesn't want to have yet.

There are some other interesting possibilities like him stepping down as leader of the party - but I don't think he's got the leadership skills to see that the party might be better off in the long run if he did that.

I think the first option is the most likely - I imagine he'd have a hard time winning in court if AB really does take him back to court because he's now shown he's willing to apply the tax unevenly. The public support isn't likely to return to where it was now that everyone knows it's not a tax they're actually benefiting from (news flash - the public never benefits from a tax, all taxes create a deadweight loss and they always get passed on to consumers in one way or another. the carbon tax was DESIGNED to motivate people to reduce their carbon footprint through financial repercussions, for anyone wanting to understand more, you can search up "internalizing an externality in the marketplace" in relation to microeconomics and also look at the effects of taxation on consumer surplus - there is a good amount of info out there. The whole financial argument has always been propaganda because all taxes - whether they're applied to the supply side or the demand side, end up still impacting economic surplus, but only those who've studied economics would have known that.)

Anyways - will be interesting to see what happens. (I'd love to hear other people's predictions, I'm finding this to be a fun prediction game and would love to hear other's thoughts!)

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Tom Thurley's avatar

Harrison, the Liberals can be summed up by one very prescient quote by Christian Leuprecht:

“This Liberal government came to power claiming it would engage in evidence based decision making. Instead this Bill amounts to decision based evidence seeking.” ( 00:59:49 hh:mm:ss mark of https://www.cpac.ca/episode?id=ae15922e-3a3a-4ac1-ace7-da29e9a811ed )

The quote is directed at a specific Bill. Unfortunately for Canada it can be repurposed to describe other Liberal initiatives.

Their forte was being masters at wedge issues and holding onto power; but the clothes are worn, enabling us to see through the holes that can’t be desperately patched over anymore. They are lame Lame Ducks while the CPC prepares, and waits, to take over the reigns.

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