There is no piece of paper you could sign that is going to get Trump off our backs. There is no way to secure the illusion of business certainty in this political environment. It’s fantasy.
I don't get it either. Especially after everyone saw what happened to the "deals" negotiated by Keir Starmer and the EU's Ursula von der Leyen. And when it will blow our new international cred and growing middle-power alliances. This is shaping up as a Senator Bill Cassidy talk-tough-and-wimp-out humiliation and demoralize other nations that have been signalling a desire to stand up to Trump.
Domestically, a lot of people have been looking the other way at his anti-democratic moves on "projects of national interest", his dangerous Internet speech law, and the way he achieved his majority precisely because we thought he was the guy to stand up to Trump on our behalf. If Carney folds there will be righteous fury, and all those pent-up concerns will rage bigtime.
Absolutely. It's one thing to finagle a majority by questionable tactics for the purpose of being able to do hard, possibly unpopular things with less pushback. It's entirely another to do so for the purpose of being a total gutless wonder without anyone being able to stop you.
Much like it's one thing to go on vacation right as the threat of very consequential tariffs is looming as a kind of power move. Like, whatever, we're moving on and making sure we don't need you, do what you will.
It's, of course, again another thing to go on vacation and then wimp out while you're there. That makes it look like you think none of this matters in an entirely different way.
“We’ve made moves to strengthen our economy.”? Ok, name three. In reality, we’ve bloviated a lot about making those moves for the past year, and convened a lot of meetings to discuss the making of such moves, but otherwise, it’s pretty much same-old, same-old. Putting lipstick on the pig didn’t make it any less porcine. Funny how that works.
1) Federal spending and the deficit are higher than ever. Carney has introduced new programs (ex. training for the trades, condo bailout, GST exemptions on housing) rather than repealing them
2) Barriers to interprovincial trade are worse. The pipeline MOU in effect pays BC a toll to allow transit of physical goods. The electricity strategy makes no provision to force Quebec to transmit electricity from NL at cost plus risk adjusted rate of return
3)Trade agreements with other countries exist only on paper. To actually mean something, regulatory and infrastructure barriers need to be overcome
While a small issue, the retreat over the Toronto Island Airport expansion is symbolic of the new Liberals being the same as the old Liberals. The Feds are so concerned about a bielection that they caved to NIMBYs.
"Elbows Up" is absolute crap. It is a marketing appeal to Eastern Canada's Loyalist baggage. Canada is not at war. If the Carney government were true to its rhetoric, it would be expending its polling lead to balance the budget and drive through trade enabling infrastructure. This would entail exercising Parliamentary Supremacy, agressively fighting Supreme Court rulings that get in the way and imposing costs on NIMBYs (ex. provinces, indigenous groups, NGOs, even neighborhoods who obstruct lose federal funding and face lawsuits for imposing delays).
Bingo. Same for the current government when it comes to artificial intelligence - lots of studying, no action. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is rapidly building datacenters, open model AI etc.
She said "we’ve made moves toward strengthening our economy internally" - towards not to. The agreements with Alberta and BC re the pipeline are a move *towards* strengthening the economy, but as there's no shovels in the ground, saying 'to strengthen' would give too much credit.
I read a book about twenty years ago about the Palestine - Israel negotiations under Clinton. In it, the author talked about how Arafat negotiated: get partway to a deal, walk away, then come back using the last agreed upon point as the new starting place. Trump deals the same way, and I don't understand how the Canadian government doesn't see that.
What have we actually agreed to do that's not positively good for Canadians on its own? I remember when all the media was claiming that tariffs harm the people of the country that imposes them.
Carney was elected precisely because a lot of foolish and emotional people wanted to vent at Trump, and he has done that very well. The fact that those foolish people are also mainly entitled boomers and government funded employees who don't care much about the Canadian economy doesn't absolutely oblige him to wreck it immediately.
The Conservatives are in disarray because they jumped on the resistance bandwagon in order to appease Ontario matrons (even those currently living in Alberta) rather than proposing something sensible that would enable them to say "I told you so" now. The more fools they.
The fundamental problem is that states have every right to set their own trade policy and the Americans are too big for us to intimidate with threats. So we should always have set our policies at what's best for Canadians. Trump gave us an opportunity to consider what that would look like, bit both parties blew it.
The Conservatives are in disarray because they jumped on the resistance bandwagon in order to appease Ontario matrons (even those currently living in Alberta) rather than proposing something sensible that would enable them to say "I told you so" now.
May be unkind. Unfair maybe IMO fairness has nothing to do with it. And matrons are the ruling caste ( the most appropriate term) in Canadian politics. In all provinces even those of the gun hating Quebec ones)
Sorry but I live in Alberta were we almost unanimously DID NOT vote for this fellow as we could see there was nothing there. To all you folks who 12 months ago said give him some time, don't worry he'll gitter done, how's that working out.
Please remind me why I want to stay and be part of this?
A deal with Trump isn't worth the paper it's written on. Trump will abrogate it the moment that the whim strikes him. However, Trump's also obsessed with appearances. If he gets to hold up a piece of paper and *claim* it's a deal, he gets the headline and the soundbites he wants and will quickly get distracted with something else.
This is Trump's M.O.: when he tried to shake down Ukraine for dirt on Joe Biden in his first term, he didn't even want anything concrete. He just wanted them to open an investigation publicly so Trump could make political hay. After losing the 2020 election, he was pressuring Georgia election officials to go looking for more votes or irregularities so he could *claim* there was fraud. More recently, he seized on the absolutely craptacular MOU with Iran so he could claim that the war he started was over and try to get shipping flowing through the strait of Hormuz. Iran almost immediately started violating the terms of the MOU, and Trump tried to ignore it because he just wanted out.
So that's what I'd be looking for in a "deal" with Trump over trade: something that gives Trump a superficial sense of "winning" that actually commits nothing or at least nothing that Canada didn't want to do anyway. Playing rope-a-dope with Trump is perfectly reasonable; the catch is that if Trump realizes he's been had, he'll be furious and lash out. To that end, public hue and cry could actually be useful in Canada by making Trump and his cronies feel like they got something.
However, actually caving to Trump and committing to a binding agreement would be blindingly stupid. Yes, any deal with Trump would be temporary, because Trump can't be trusted or relied on for anything. In short, I want to see the agreement and see what we've *really* committed to do.
I’m not as cynical as JG yet… but the Gordie Howe bridge deal rattled my faith for sure.
My question is what is Carney’s incentive to make a bad deal here? Why would he fold so easily, when he campaigned on and won an election explicitly on being tough and competent in dealing with the Americans? Is it truly that these guys are that soft and shortsighted? Why even make that WEF speech in the first place if this was going to be the tactic all along?
The bridge agreement shows Carney's unwillingness to take a strong stand on any issue. Traffic volumes on the Ambassador and the tunnel have been falling for years. No big sacrifice to keep the bridge closed for a couple of years to show Canada is willling to draw a line.
All of your negativity is based on complete speculation. What if we upped the price of the oil we sell the U.S. ? What about the minerals etc. We have a lot of what they need. Frankly if we have to give up
They'll endorse the Liberal leader? Could you walk me through your reasons because I've been on here two years an a bit and I can tell you MG and JG take all parties to task on The Line. Never seen them endorse. Could you show me where you found that?
OK, it won't be an endorsement, just an anti-endorsement for the Conservatives.
Even as Jen's Tech-Daddy swoon is ending in the misery many predicted on this board, she still hates the Conservatives more. There was the "Poilievre is worse" drive-by in last week's podcast and in this article we are told to be just as angry with the Conservatives for Carney's incompetence.
During the last election, The Line lectured the Conservatives endlessly about dropping their "Fix Canada" campaign and switching to Carney's hair-on-fire anti-Trump rhetoric. That rhetoric brought us to the state of diplomatic collapse that even The Line seems to now recognize. Just guessing at Trump's personality disorders should have made it entirely foreseeable.
Jen even tripped out the mainstream media acorn that "Poilievre is mean and has no policies" during the election. He isn't and he did, as could have been determined with minimal research.
So, can you guess how The Line will vote in the separation referendum? In a federal election? Two years ago I couldn't. Now I can.
This would certainly be the end of the Liberals' hayride. As I've said here many times, there is no point in any deal with this administration. It's meaningless. It's time to tell them to flat-out fuck off. Rip off the Band-Aid and deal with the reality of the consequences.
Honestly if the brand new temporary agreement dropped tariffs on manufacturing, aluminum, etc in exchange for gutting supply management, that would be a win for Canada that Trump could claim as his own.
Canada still imports forced-labour aluminum, steel and cars from China. I don't think the tariffs on those can go down too far. The US isn't big on slavery any more. They have the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.
Canada is fine with slavery, though. We have a similar act but don't bother to enforce it.
"There is no piece of paper you could sign that is going to get Trump off our backs. There is no way to secure the illusion of business certainty in this political environment. It’s fantasy."
I think we all need to march on Ottawa and remind PM Carney of why he was elected. And that was to never concede anything to DJT.
Jen, set the date. I'll be there.
One other point, has PM Carney kept Mexico up to date as promised.
Definition of insanity: expecting Trump to negotiate honestly when he changes his mind like I change my socks: every day. The man is a lunatic. He is where the USA is at right now.
I don't get it either. Especially after everyone saw what happened to the "deals" negotiated by Keir Starmer and the EU's Ursula von der Leyen. And when it will blow our new international cred and growing middle-power alliances. This is shaping up as a Senator Bill Cassidy talk-tough-and-wimp-out humiliation and demoralize other nations that have been signalling a desire to stand up to Trump.
Domestically, a lot of people have been looking the other way at his anti-democratic moves on "projects of national interest", his dangerous Internet speech law, and the way he achieved his majority precisely because we thought he was the guy to stand up to Trump on our behalf. If Carney folds there will be righteous fury, and all those pent-up concerns will rage bigtime.
TACO will stand for Trump Always Cucks Ottawa.
Absolutely. It's one thing to finagle a majority by questionable tactics for the purpose of being able to do hard, possibly unpopular things with less pushback. It's entirely another to do so for the purpose of being a total gutless wonder without anyone being able to stop you.
Much like it's one thing to go on vacation right as the threat of very consequential tariffs is looming as a kind of power move. Like, whatever, we're moving on and making sure we don't need you, do what you will.
It's, of course, again another thing to go on vacation and then wimp out while you're there. That makes it look like you think none of this matters in an entirely different way.
"What's good for Brookfield / Eurasia is good for the schlubs."
He has passed a lot of anti-free speech legislation and granted himself and his ministers some dictatorial powers.
“We’ve made moves to strengthen our economy.”? Ok, name three. In reality, we’ve bloviated a lot about making those moves for the past year, and convened a lot of meetings to discuss the making of such moves, but otherwise, it’s pretty much same-old, same-old. Putting lipstick on the pig didn’t make it any less porcine. Funny how that works.
I can name three regressions:
1) Federal spending and the deficit are higher than ever. Carney has introduced new programs (ex. training for the trades, condo bailout, GST exemptions on housing) rather than repealing them
2) Barriers to interprovincial trade are worse. The pipeline MOU in effect pays BC a toll to allow transit of physical goods. The electricity strategy makes no provision to force Quebec to transmit electricity from NL at cost plus risk adjusted rate of return
3)Trade agreements with other countries exist only on paper. To actually mean something, regulatory and infrastructure barriers need to be overcome
While a small issue, the retreat over the Toronto Island Airport expansion is symbolic of the new Liberals being the same as the old Liberals. The Feds are so concerned about a bielection that they caved to NIMBYs.
"Elbows Up" is absolute crap. It is a marketing appeal to Eastern Canada's Loyalist baggage. Canada is not at war. If the Carney government were true to its rhetoric, it would be expending its polling lead to balance the budget and drive through trade enabling infrastructure. This would entail exercising Parliamentary Supremacy, agressively fighting Supreme Court rulings that get in the way and imposing costs on NIMBYs (ex. provinces, indigenous groups, NGOs, even neighborhoods who obstruct lose federal funding and face lawsuits for imposing delays).
Bingo. Same for the current government when it comes to artificial intelligence - lots of studying, no action. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is rapidly building datacenters, open model AI etc.
Evan Solomon has not been invited to CNBC to discuss Canada's AI strategy.
I think Canada's AI strategy has moved south.
She said "we’ve made moves toward strengthening our economy internally" - towards not to. The agreements with Alberta and BC re the pipeline are a move *towards* strengthening the economy, but as there's no shovels in the ground, saying 'to strengthen' would give too much credit.
Exactly
I read a book about twenty years ago about the Palestine - Israel negotiations under Clinton. In it, the author talked about how Arafat negotiated: get partway to a deal, walk away, then come back using the last agreed upon point as the new starting place. Trump deals the same way, and I don't understand how the Canadian government doesn't see that.
Mr. elbows up. Always knew he’d fold like a cheap suit. Such a phony.
As I commented in another Substack article, Elbows Up is meaningless when performed by those who are on their knees.
What have we actually agreed to do that's not positively good for Canadians on its own? I remember when all the media was claiming that tariffs harm the people of the country that imposes them.
Carney was elected precisely because a lot of foolish and emotional people wanted to vent at Trump, and he has done that very well. The fact that those foolish people are also mainly entitled boomers and government funded employees who don't care much about the Canadian economy doesn't absolutely oblige him to wreck it immediately.
The Conservatives are in disarray because they jumped on the resistance bandwagon in order to appease Ontario matrons (even those currently living in Alberta) rather than proposing something sensible that would enable them to say "I told you so" now. The more fools they.
The fundamental problem is that states have every right to set their own trade policy and the Americans are too big for us to intimidate with threats. So we should always have set our policies at what's best for Canadians. Trump gave us an opportunity to consider what that would look like, bit both parties blew it.
I would add the Quebec Frenchies.
I think the anti-Trumpism was more English, because it was amplified by consumption of American media.
QUOTE
The Conservatives are in disarray because they jumped on the resistance bandwagon in order to appease Ontario matrons (even those currently living in Alberta) rather than proposing something sensible that would enable them to say "I told you so" now.
END QUOTE
Unkind, unfair and not credible.
May be unkind. Unfair maybe IMO fairness has nothing to do with it. And matrons are the ruling caste ( the most appropriate term) in Canadian politics. In all provinces even those of the gun hating Quebec ones)
Welcome back, Jen.
Sorry but I live in Alberta were we almost unanimously DID NOT vote for this fellow as we could see there was nothing there. To all you folks who 12 months ago said give him some time, don't worry he'll gitter done, how's that working out.
Please remind me why I want to stay and be part of this?
Because if you go, you're three times more fucked dealing with Trump on your own.
Why? Trump likes Smith. She was the only Canadian political leader that went down and negotiated with him like an adult.
A deal with Trump isn't worth the paper it's written on. Trump will abrogate it the moment that the whim strikes him. However, Trump's also obsessed with appearances. If he gets to hold up a piece of paper and *claim* it's a deal, he gets the headline and the soundbites he wants and will quickly get distracted with something else.
This is Trump's M.O.: when he tried to shake down Ukraine for dirt on Joe Biden in his first term, he didn't even want anything concrete. He just wanted them to open an investigation publicly so Trump could make political hay. After losing the 2020 election, he was pressuring Georgia election officials to go looking for more votes or irregularities so he could *claim* there was fraud. More recently, he seized on the absolutely craptacular MOU with Iran so he could claim that the war he started was over and try to get shipping flowing through the strait of Hormuz. Iran almost immediately started violating the terms of the MOU, and Trump tried to ignore it because he just wanted out.
So that's what I'd be looking for in a "deal" with Trump over trade: something that gives Trump a superficial sense of "winning" that actually commits nothing or at least nothing that Canada didn't want to do anyway. Playing rope-a-dope with Trump is perfectly reasonable; the catch is that if Trump realizes he's been had, he'll be furious and lash out. To that end, public hue and cry could actually be useful in Canada by making Trump and his cronies feel like they got something.
However, actually caving to Trump and committing to a binding agreement would be blindingly stupid. Yes, any deal with Trump would be temporary, because Trump can't be trusted or relied on for anything. In short, I want to see the agreement and see what we've *really* committed to do.
Is Elbows Up still a thing?
I’m not as cynical as JG yet… but the Gordie Howe bridge deal rattled my faith for sure.
My question is what is Carney’s incentive to make a bad deal here? Why would he fold so easily, when he campaigned on and won an election explicitly on being tough and competent in dealing with the Americans? Is it truly that these guys are that soft and shortsighted? Why even make that WEF speech in the first place if this was going to be the tactic all along?
Honest questions.
The bridge agreement shows Carney's unwillingness to take a strong stand on any issue. Traffic volumes on the Ambassador and the tunnel have been falling for years. No big sacrifice to keep the bridge closed for a couple of years to show Canada is willling to draw a line.
Trade in our time.
All of your negativity is based on complete speculation. What if we upped the price of the oil we sell the U.S. ? What about the minerals etc. We have a lot of what they need. Frankly if we have to give up
part of our dairy protection so what?
Anyway we don’t know yet!!’
As for the oil, if they don’t buy from us, they can buy from elsewhere. We,
on the other hand, have no one else to sell it to because …… no pipelines
Reverse a few pipelines and they can refine Venezuelan crude in the Midwest. Poof goes Canada's economy.
Carney vowed not to use our resources, or anything else, as leverage in the talks. I don't think he has ever negotiated before.
Carney will resign. The Liberals will select another leader. The Line will endorse that leader.
They'll endorse the Liberal leader? Could you walk me through your reasons because I've been on here two years an a bit and I can tell you MG and JG take all parties to task on The Line. Never seen them endorse. Could you show me where you found that?
OK, it won't be an endorsement, just an anti-endorsement for the Conservatives.
Even as Jen's Tech-Daddy swoon is ending in the misery many predicted on this board, she still hates the Conservatives more. There was the "Poilievre is worse" drive-by in last week's podcast and in this article we are told to be just as angry with the Conservatives for Carney's incompetence.
During the last election, The Line lectured the Conservatives endlessly about dropping their "Fix Canada" campaign and switching to Carney's hair-on-fire anti-Trump rhetoric. That rhetoric brought us to the state of diplomatic collapse that even The Line seems to now recognize. Just guessing at Trump's personality disorders should have made it entirely foreseeable.
Jen even tripped out the mainstream media acorn that "Poilievre is mean and has no policies" during the election. He isn't and he did, as could have been determined with minimal research.
So, can you guess how The Line will vote in the separation referendum? In a federal election? Two years ago I couldn't. Now I can.
This would certainly be the end of the Liberals' hayride. As I've said here many times, there is no point in any deal with this administration. It's meaningless. It's time to tell them to flat-out fuck off. Rip off the Band-Aid and deal with the reality of the consequences.
Honestly if the brand new temporary agreement dropped tariffs on manufacturing, aluminum, etc in exchange for gutting supply management, that would be a win for Canada that Trump could claim as his own.
Canada still imports forced-labour aluminum, steel and cars from China. I don't think the tariffs on those can go down too far. The US isn't big on slavery any more. They have the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.
Canada is fine with slavery, though. We have a similar act but don't bother to enforce it.
"There is no piece of paper you could sign that is going to get Trump off our backs. There is no way to secure the illusion of business certainty in this political environment. It’s fantasy."
I think we all need to march on Ottawa and remind PM Carney of why he was elected. And that was to never concede anything to DJT.
Jen, set the date. I'll be there.
One other point, has PM Carney kept Mexico up to date as promised.
Definition of insanity: expecting Trump to negotiate honestly when he changes his mind like I change my socks: every day. The man is a lunatic. He is where the USA is at right now.