Jen Gerson: Meditations from the Liberal crazy train

I am thinking there is a non-zero chance that the Liberals just totally lose control of this situation and we end up with an accidental election.

“We need people to understand what’s at stake in this upcoming election.”

By: Jen Gerson

Just a couple of points as everybody settles into their Thursdays. 

Politics continues to move quickly and stupidly now that Parliament is back in session and there are already a few items on the docket suggesting to me that the chaos shows no signs of abating: this week's byelection results; bizarre leaks from the Liberal caucus; and, lastly, my own personal internal bookie keeping tabs on the probability of the next election. Plus side: this one doesn't break my fingers when I'm wrong. 

The first item to note is, of course, the results of the latest byelections. The NDP held Elmswood-Transcona in Manitoba which, to be frank, is a rather predictable result except for the fact that the Conservatives jumped 15 points to come into second place, well ahead of the Liberals, who lost 10 per cent off their 2021 showing. Not good for Team Trudeau.

The loss of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal to the Bloc, however, is a more damaging blow to the Liberals. This riding had been held by the notable if not entirely distinguished cabinet minister of David Lametti since its formation in the 2015 election. The majority of the riding, under previous boundaries, had been in Liberal hands (including those of Paul Martin!) for decades longer, with the exception of the 2011 “Orange Wave.” The loss in what ought to be a safe seat for the Liberals is yet another data point in a downward trendline that began last year and seemed to find its nadir during the Liberals' last byelection loss in St. Paul’s. But, I guess not. We are, apparently, still searching for bottom.