Anyone who thinks the US is a greater threat to Canada than China should be nowhere near public office of any kind, and should probably steer clear of voting booths as well. For their own safety and that of us all.
Joe, It seems every time I read a "conventional" sourced analysis of anything Trudeau and now Carney have done on foreign policy the authors forget one consideration; Is it intentional? You correctly analyze the effects of a pivot to China as disastrous for Canada AS WE KNOW IT. But neither Trudeau nor Carney much like or want "Canada as we know it". They want millions more migrant refugees, they want to drain ALL middle class capital, and they want us dangerously unable to defend ourselves economically or militarily. And if you look at the track of the last 11 years this is EXACTLY where we are going. So the REAL question should not be the forelock tugging, intestinal quivering "How could they be so naive and do this?" but rather "Who is pulling the strings on the Liberal leadership and how do we get them out of directing the actions of our government?" The CDA and CADSI types are wonderful old souls but you are almost pathologically limited in your views regarding current Liberal leadership. They do not love - or even like - Canada. Time to open our eyes, pull off the rose-coloured glasses, and look for the real source of this direction we are being shoved in.
Quite something to see it summed up so succinctly. We are dealing with individuals at the highest levels, who actively want to diminish their nominally "own" country for personally selfish purposes. Problem is, the reality is so weird and offensive that normies malfunction when confronted with it and refuse to believe that any of it could be true.
It really is a brilliant strategy by our leaders to do such absurdly mendacious and villainous shit, that the act of merely describing it makes the speaker sound like they are spouting deranged conspiracy theories.
Excellent article based on reality. What a breath of fresh air to read even if the reality described is difficult to accept. This understanding of reality as it is needs to be the foundation of policy addressing it. And what a wonderful change that would be.
Thank you, anyone that believes Canada can thrive with any other trading partners outside the USA is living in an alternate universe. China was always a bigger threat than anyone was willing to admit out lost. Europe has mature markets, we are not breaking into them any time soon. It is high time Carney put his tail between his legs and went cup in hand to the USA and made a deal, just like almost every country Trump has gone after has done.
Politics is temporary, including Trump, geography is permanent, Canada and the USA share a large border and a common culture which will always mean we can work out our differences, if Carney cannot do it, he needs to step aside for somebody who can.
True enough. However, Carney's tone and mannerisms are damaging. Additionally we must bluntly remind Marx Conman Carney about his blatant lies, knowing deceptions and manipulations he and "Liberals", CBC MSM used to "win" the last elections.
'cuz what Marx Conman Carney has been doing since and continues to do is driving Canada closer and closer into an economic and political shithole.
All the while the f......r has all his money out of Canada, and is arrogantly pissing away our tax money.
And the president's (or his ambassador) tone and manner aren't? Why is everything on Carney to be nice? We initially cooperated, tried all sorts of things to appease him but then he threw a hissy fit over Ford's ad.
Does the president even know what he wants? I doubt it.
If the Americans want to negotiate everyone knows we'll be there in a heartbeat.
Canada has a boat load of issues but so do the Americans.
Given the choices available, he was the best one. You're ignoring that one party involved in the debate is insane. You don't get to pick the cards you're dealt. Pierre was/is so out of touch with reality that he was saying we should get a tariff-free deal. I'm not sure what meds he was on to spout that kind of impossibility.
This is all true. It also strikes me how Canada collectively seems to be acting like tariffs are equivalent to war. When the US imposes tariffs, it’s driving its own inflation and increasing its own cost of goods. Yes that may impact the amount consumers spend and demand may decrease as a result, but the panicked handwringing is a bit insane when you think about it that way.
Especially when you consider tariffs are levied on declared value, which is usually much lower than market value, so it’s likely not 30% on retail but rather 30% on the declared value.
Not saying it will be meaningless, but running to China definitely is a bad choice given their human rights violations etc.
If your neighbor is letting their property go to seed and burning piles of trash in the backyard, you understandably get concerned about the impact on your own house and quality of life.
I have seen no signs that the Canadian government is abandoning trade or geopolitical relationships with the US, as this article suggests. I agree that it would be crazy for us to do that.
Of course China exercises economic leverage against trading partners. So does the US. If China wants to trade, I think we should trade. Diversify. Those two articles linked at the start are about broadening economic relations, that’s it. It’s a stretch to suggest we are looking to abandon NORAD and NATO.
Right!? This is basically a rage-bait article where the author attempts to be edgy by pointing out the obvious thing that everyone understands (DId yOU KNow TahT teH Sun rISeS iN TEh EAsT?).
While I concur that the security and strategic threats China poses to Canada are real and under appreciated or under recognized by both the federal and provincial governments, Mr. Varner's comments implying that we should continue to work lock-step with our erratic neighbour seems equally fraught with negative consequences, at least in the short term.
We relied on China for significant agricultural exports (canola, wheat, pork) for many years. Alternative markets for current volumes of those products will be hard to replace, especially when focus seems to be on propping up Ontario's manufacturing sectors rather than supporting Western Canadian agriculture.
Recognizing that the perfect mix is elusive I think the government has to develop a more sophisticated way to balance all these interests.
Very well stated facts. I am becoming very concerned with whatever it is that Carney thinks he is doing here. I used to think that Trudeau was dangerous but Carney is levels of magnitude more dangerous not only due to whatever it is he is thinking but more importantly the mainstream media and general public idolizations of him allows Carney to get away with idiotic policy like recognizing Palestine and now pivoting to China. Who Cares. I do
I think the notion that the US will return to anything "normal" is based entirely on hope. As it stands now, they aren't significantly different from China. It's true that Trump will be dead or impeached in the near term, but the cancer that metastasised throughout American governance won't easily be removed. Vance is owned by the same nutjobs who put Trump in power.
In short, we're fucked, stuck in a frying pan or fire scenario with both our major trading partners screwing us. But if dropping EV tariffs helps the farmers, let's do that. You don't have to get in bed with China to solve some significant problems here. No, you can't trust them. The US is no different.
I'm a little stunned by how much of the facts this article ignores. Both the US and Japan have recently increased trade relations with China. China's tariffs and bans have been retaliatory. Xi Jinping has no true loyalty to Putin. International nuclear proliferation is inevitable and therefore bringing up North Korea is only a distraction.
China does things differently. For the sake of the survival of the human race, I'm grateful for that.
Under both Biden & Trump1 the Liberals clearly governed as Globalists. This has only been amplified with Trump2 and with the Liberals2 under Carney. Everything we can observe and read clearly show PM Carney to be a 110% globalist. With Trump being the opposite of a globalist it is resonable to assume Carney & Trump will agree on very little - ignore the smiles & handshakes when they meet it is all theatre. My assessment of Carneys action is both a combination of trying to show the US we have other options (which we really don't) and feeling he will have better chances of doing something with the other globalists. Yes China supports globalism especially with trade as it makes economic sense & also pulls trade away from its rival the USA. We are in a period of time were our relations with our neighbour to the south are being stressed but we have generally had the strongest relation off any two countries globally and my best assessment is with the next US leader and the one after that a return to the norm will happen. So Canada don't do anything stupid, be smart and play the medium to long game. Pretending the US isn't the most important country to us now & in the future can be hameful so please please please ensure what ever action Canda takes is extremely thoughtful.
The last time I looked, China wasn't threatening to annex us as the 51st state. The US is almost certain to de-couple further by blowing up CUSMA. The Canadian government is in a horrible position, but simply retaining the status quo consigns us to the perpetual colonial status with the US
If the US wanted to annex us it would a fait accompli. The number of citizens of fighting age who would be willing to risk their lives in defence of the post-nation state is minuscule. A good portion of the population would pack up, and use their alternate citizenship to escape.
The Canadian government is seeing their chickens come to roost. They are not victims, but the architects of Confederation's demise.
Naif. Canada IS in a perpetual colonial status with the US. Geography, economy, population, industrial flexibility. You want to move Canada from the perpetual colonial status with the US, grow Canada bigger and stronger than the US. Go ahead and do it with the "Liebrano" front for the Laurentian corrupt oligarchs forever in power.
Additionally, learn heck of a lot more about what the Chinese Communist Party is and how it operates, and what it wants. You are not going to learn that from CBC and MSM.
Better to be in a “perpetual colonial status with the US “ than to be chummy with the PRC who will insidiously infiltrate Canada politically, economically, and militarily in keeping with their goal of world domination. To the Chinese, the Russians our North is a juicy marinated steak ready for the bbq.
Has China been unilaterally blowing up fishing vessels off the coast of Venezuela? Did China threaten to take over Greenland? Is it China ready to hang Ukraine out to dry by forcing it to abandon territory that Russia has not yet conquered? Yes, Russia is about to become an economic satrap of China, but largely as a consequence of its own stupidity in invading Ukraine and consequently relying on China to shore up its weaknesses. America's intentions these days in regard to Canada are anything but friendly. The fact that we're even engaging in this discussion is symptomatic of how bad the relationship has become thanks largely to Trump and the vicissitudes of his foreign policy. Retaining the status quo is a recipe for economic disaster. Diversifying our trade relationships is the only realistic alternative for Canada.
Have you been paying attention to what China's been doing to Vietnam and the Phillipines in the South China Sea over the past 20 years or so? Perhaps not...
Just bite the bullet on annexation already. Then, you’ll at least get a say in how US security works. Otherwise, true sovereignty involves trading off and balancing between greater powers. And that might be infeasible or dumb for other reasons, as you indicate.
Why on Earth would we jettison Westminster parliamentary democracy for the American system? The Westminster approach has provided stable, effective government for hundreds of years in many different countries. The American system was inspired by the Roman Republic, and appears to be collapsing in the same way as we watch.
The US system has far more checks and balances than ours. A Canadian PM is combination President, House and Senate Leader and has unlimited powers of arbitrary judicial and adminstrative appointment with no confirmation process. Caucuses are 99-100% whipped. No midterm elections to worry about. A Canadian PM with a majority could basically declare themselves dictator for life and there would be little stopping them.
"...just six months ago, during the election campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney himself described China as “Canada’s greatest threat.”
Ah yes, so he did. But then, as we all know, Liberals will always SAY all the right things when running for election - in fact, they excel at determining the current zeitgeist, and carefully honing their electoral statements to suit the moment.
As Canada has repeatedly discovered and rediscovered over the past decade plus, the ISSUE is that the Liberals don't actually believe (or MEAN) anything they say during an election, and have ZERO clue how to DO any of the things they solemnly promised to do.
In fact, they seem to focus 100% of their energy in crafting the next major announcement, and then the next one, and then the next one.
At no point do they actually stoop to doing the hard work of 'governing'.
They just announce. And if the polling starts to dip, they announce again.
No one expects anything from Canada anymore. Not because Canada is unable to be a good partner but because apparently our governing elite has rendered itself unreliable. Our economic future lies not with China but the liberals seem bound and determined to burry the rest of the economy six feet under along with the hopes of the next generation. We’re about to become not only unreliable but despised by our traditional allies… what a sad statement.
China's foreign policy is thousands of years old: China is the Middle Kingdom, the center of civilization, and the rest of us are barbarians who are to pay tribute for the privilege of interacting with them. Further, the Chinese Communist Party is obsessed with an axe to grind because of the "century of humiliation" where that heavenly mandate was flipped with China becoming a satellite of European power. It's very clear how Canada will fit into that long-established world view: we'd be subordinate, and expected to behave that way.
On the other hand, America is still a liberal democracy with a heritage and culture rooted in the English liberal tradition (liberal meaning freedom, not a misappropriated synonym for trendy left wing activism.) Trump is a symptom of a rising wave of illiberal populism in the US, but even the cretins who stormed the US Capitol on January 6 claimed they were doing so because of a "stolen election" - a misguided, misinformed commitment to *democracy*, not just a personality cult in service of a narcissistic buffoon with authoritarian instincts.
I think it's pretty clear that Canada needs to band up with other liberal democracies. That's our tradition, and it's one that's led to incredible gains human prosperity anywhere it's taken root. The US may be going through a rough patch, but there's more hope that US liberal democratic culture will reassert itself in the short term than that the Chinese Communist Party will finally be forced to let China have the full benefit of that tradition.
Anyone who thinks the US is a greater threat to Canada than China should be nowhere near public office of any kind, and should probably steer clear of voting booths as well. For their own safety and that of us all.
Joe, It seems every time I read a "conventional" sourced analysis of anything Trudeau and now Carney have done on foreign policy the authors forget one consideration; Is it intentional? You correctly analyze the effects of a pivot to China as disastrous for Canada AS WE KNOW IT. But neither Trudeau nor Carney much like or want "Canada as we know it". They want millions more migrant refugees, they want to drain ALL middle class capital, and they want us dangerously unable to defend ourselves economically or militarily. And if you look at the track of the last 11 years this is EXACTLY where we are going. So the REAL question should not be the forelock tugging, intestinal quivering "How could they be so naive and do this?" but rather "Who is pulling the strings on the Liberal leadership and how do we get them out of directing the actions of our government?" The CDA and CADSI types are wonderful old souls but you are almost pathologically limited in your views regarding current Liberal leadership. They do not love - or even like - Canada. Time to open our eyes, pull off the rose-coloured glasses, and look for the real source of this direction we are being shoved in.
Excellent observations and conclusions.
Quite something to see it summed up so succinctly. We are dealing with individuals at the highest levels, who actively want to diminish their nominally "own" country for personally selfish purposes. Problem is, the reality is so weird and offensive that normies malfunction when confronted with it and refuse to believe that any of it could be true.
It really is a brilliant strategy by our leaders to do such absurdly mendacious and villainous shit, that the act of merely describing it makes the speaker sound like they are spouting deranged conspiracy theories.
Excellent article based on reality. What a breath of fresh air to read even if the reality described is difficult to accept. This understanding of reality as it is needs to be the foundation of policy addressing it. And what a wonderful change that would be.
Thank you, anyone that believes Canada can thrive with any other trading partners outside the USA is living in an alternate universe. China was always a bigger threat than anyone was willing to admit out lost. Europe has mature markets, we are not breaking into them any time soon. It is high time Carney put his tail between his legs and went cup in hand to the USA and made a deal, just like almost every country Trump has gone after has done.
Politics is temporary, including Trump, geography is permanent, Canada and the USA share a large border and a common culture which will always mean we can work out our differences, if Carney cannot do it, he needs to step aside for somebody who can.
China is never going to be a huge market but groveling to the Americans would be a mistake.
We do not have to grovel. Simply talk and act in a constructive neighbourly manner. Jettison the Laurentian snootiness.
What exactly have we been doing for months? The Americans aren't that interested in us right now (which is fine).
We can't make them come to the bargaining table.
True enough. However, Carney's tone and mannerisms are damaging. Additionally we must bluntly remind Marx Conman Carney about his blatant lies, knowing deceptions and manipulations he and "Liberals", CBC MSM used to "win" the last elections.
'cuz what Marx Conman Carney has been doing since and continues to do is driving Canada closer and closer into an economic and political shithole.
All the while the f......r has all his money out of Canada, and is arrogantly pissing away our tax money.
And the president's (or his ambassador) tone and manner aren't? Why is everything on Carney to be nice? We initially cooperated, tried all sorts of things to appease him but then he threw a hissy fit over Ford's ad.
Does the president even know what he wants? I doubt it.
If the Americans want to negotiate everyone knows we'll be there in a heartbeat.
Canada has a boat load of issues but so do the Americans.
What deal can you make with Trump when he changes his mind every 10 minutes, and tramples on anything he views as weakness? His word has no value.
And yet just earlier this year, you seemed CONVINCED that Carney would set him straight.
How does that work?
Given the choices available, he was the best one. You're ignoring that one party involved in the debate is insane. You don't get to pick the cards you're dealt. Pierre was/is so out of touch with reality that he was saying we should get a tariff-free deal. I'm not sure what meds he was on to spout that kind of impossibility.
This is all true. It also strikes me how Canada collectively seems to be acting like tariffs are equivalent to war. When the US imposes tariffs, it’s driving its own inflation and increasing its own cost of goods. Yes that may impact the amount consumers spend and demand may decrease as a result, but the panicked handwringing is a bit insane when you think about it that way.
Especially when you consider tariffs are levied on declared value, which is usually much lower than market value, so it’s likely not 30% on retail but rather 30% on the declared value.
Not saying it will be meaningless, but running to China definitely is a bad choice given their human rights violations etc.
If your neighbor is letting their property go to seed and burning piles of trash in the backyard, you understandably get concerned about the impact on your own house and quality of life.
The worst thing about Trump is that he gave us all the excuses we need to keep making all the wrong choices.
How are brown people faring in the US today?
I have seen no signs that the Canadian government is abandoning trade or geopolitical relationships with the US, as this article suggests. I agree that it would be crazy for us to do that.
Of course China exercises economic leverage against trading partners. So does the US. If China wants to trade, I think we should trade. Diversify. Those two articles linked at the start are about broadening economic relations, that’s it. It’s a stretch to suggest we are looking to abandon NORAD and NATO.
Right!? This is basically a rage-bait article where the author attempts to be edgy by pointing out the obvious thing that everyone understands (DId yOU KNow TahT teH Sun rISeS iN TEh EAsT?).
While I concur that the security and strategic threats China poses to Canada are real and under appreciated or under recognized by both the federal and provincial governments, Mr. Varner's comments implying that we should continue to work lock-step with our erratic neighbour seems equally fraught with negative consequences, at least in the short term.
We relied on China for significant agricultural exports (canola, wheat, pork) for many years. Alternative markets for current volumes of those products will be hard to replace, especially when focus seems to be on propping up Ontario's manufacturing sectors rather than supporting Western Canadian agriculture.
Recognizing that the perfect mix is elusive I think the government has to develop a more sophisticated way to balance all these interests.
There is merit to what you are saying.
Very well stated facts. I am becoming very concerned with whatever it is that Carney thinks he is doing here. I used to think that Trudeau was dangerous but Carney is levels of magnitude more dangerous not only due to whatever it is he is thinking but more importantly the mainstream media and general public idolizations of him allows Carney to get away with idiotic policy like recognizing Palestine and now pivoting to China. Who Cares. I do
I think the notion that the US will return to anything "normal" is based entirely on hope. As it stands now, they aren't significantly different from China. It's true that Trump will be dead or impeached in the near term, but the cancer that metastasised throughout American governance won't easily be removed. Vance is owned by the same nutjobs who put Trump in power.
In short, we're fucked, stuck in a frying pan or fire scenario with both our major trading partners screwing us. But if dropping EV tariffs helps the farmers, let's do that. You don't have to get in bed with China to solve some significant problems here. No, you can't trust them. The US is no different.
I'm a little stunned by how much of the facts this article ignores. Both the US and Japan have recently increased trade relations with China. China's tariffs and bans have been retaliatory. Xi Jinping has no true loyalty to Putin. International nuclear proliferation is inevitable and therefore bringing up North Korea is only a distraction.
China does things differently. For the sake of the survival of the human race, I'm grateful for that.
Under both Biden & Trump1 the Liberals clearly governed as Globalists. This has only been amplified with Trump2 and with the Liberals2 under Carney. Everything we can observe and read clearly show PM Carney to be a 110% globalist. With Trump being the opposite of a globalist it is resonable to assume Carney & Trump will agree on very little - ignore the smiles & handshakes when they meet it is all theatre. My assessment of Carneys action is both a combination of trying to show the US we have other options (which we really don't) and feeling he will have better chances of doing something with the other globalists. Yes China supports globalism especially with trade as it makes economic sense & also pulls trade away from its rival the USA. We are in a period of time were our relations with our neighbour to the south are being stressed but we have generally had the strongest relation off any two countries globally and my best assessment is with the next US leader and the one after that a return to the norm will happen. So Canada don't do anything stupid, be smart and play the medium to long game. Pretending the US isn't the most important country to us now & in the future can be hameful so please please please ensure what ever action Canda takes is extremely thoughtful.
The last time I looked, China wasn't threatening to annex us as the 51st state. The US is almost certain to de-couple further by blowing up CUSMA. The Canadian government is in a horrible position, but simply retaining the status quo consigns us to the perpetual colonial status with the US
If the US wanted to annex us it would a fait accompli. The number of citizens of fighting age who would be willing to risk their lives in defence of the post-nation state is minuscule. A good portion of the population would pack up, and use their alternate citizenship to escape.
The Canadian government is seeing their chickens come to roost. They are not victims, but the architects of Confederation's demise.
Naif. Canada IS in a perpetual colonial status with the US. Geography, economy, population, industrial flexibility. You want to move Canada from the perpetual colonial status with the US, grow Canada bigger and stronger than the US. Go ahead and do it with the "Liebrano" front for the Laurentian corrupt oligarchs forever in power.
Additionally, learn heck of a lot more about what the Chinese Communist Party is and how it operates, and what it wants. You are not going to learn that from CBC and MSM.
Better to be in a “perpetual colonial status with the US “ than to be chummy with the PRC who will insidiously infiltrate Canada politically, economically, and militarily in keeping with their goal of world domination. To the Chinese, the Russians our North is a juicy marinated steak ready for the bbq.
Has China been unilaterally blowing up fishing vessels off the coast of Venezuela? Did China threaten to take over Greenland? Is it China ready to hang Ukraine out to dry by forcing it to abandon territory that Russia has not yet conquered? Yes, Russia is about to become an economic satrap of China, but largely as a consequence of its own stupidity in invading Ukraine and consequently relying on China to shore up its weaknesses. America's intentions these days in regard to Canada are anything but friendly. The fact that we're even engaging in this discussion is symptomatic of how bad the relationship has become thanks largely to Trump and the vicissitudes of his foreign policy. Retaining the status quo is a recipe for economic disaster. Diversifying our trade relationships is the only realistic alternative for Canada.
Have you been paying attention to what China's been doing to Vietnam and the Phillipines in the South China Sea over the past 20 years or so? Perhaps not...
Not to mention that Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Just bite the bullet on annexation already. Then, you’ll at least get a say in how US security works. Otherwise, true sovereignty involves trading off and balancing between greater powers. And that might be infeasible or dumb for other reasons, as you indicate.
Why on Earth would we jettison Westminster parliamentary democracy for the American system? The Westminster approach has provided stable, effective government for hundreds of years in many different countries. The American system was inspired by the Roman Republic, and appears to be collapsing in the same way as we watch.
The US system has far more checks and balances than ours. A Canadian PM is combination President, House and Senate Leader and has unlimited powers of arbitrary judicial and adminstrative appointment with no confirmation process. Caucuses are 99-100% whipped. No midterm elections to worry about. A Canadian PM with a majority could basically declare themselves dictator for life and there would be little stopping them.
I'm sure the Republican Congress will act to check Trump's unconstitutional and illegal usurpation of tariff powers any time now...
If they won't then there is a great opportunity for the American people to do so about a year from now...
Just like Canadian parliaments have to respect fixed time limits.
"...just six months ago, during the election campaign, Prime Minister Mark Carney himself described China as “Canada’s greatest threat.”
Ah yes, so he did. But then, as we all know, Liberals will always SAY all the right things when running for election - in fact, they excel at determining the current zeitgeist, and carefully honing their electoral statements to suit the moment.
As Canada has repeatedly discovered and rediscovered over the past decade plus, the ISSUE is that the Liberals don't actually believe (or MEAN) anything they say during an election, and have ZERO clue how to DO any of the things they solemnly promised to do.
In fact, they seem to focus 100% of their energy in crafting the next major announcement, and then the next one, and then the next one.
At no point do they actually stoop to doing the hard work of 'governing'.
They just announce. And if the polling starts to dip, they announce again.
No one expects anything from Canada anymore. Not because Canada is unable to be a good partner but because apparently our governing elite has rendered itself unreliable. Our economic future lies not with China but the liberals seem bound and determined to burry the rest of the economy six feet under along with the hopes of the next generation. We’re about to become not only unreliable but despised by our traditional allies… what a sad statement.
China's foreign policy is thousands of years old: China is the Middle Kingdom, the center of civilization, and the rest of us are barbarians who are to pay tribute for the privilege of interacting with them. Further, the Chinese Communist Party is obsessed with an axe to grind because of the "century of humiliation" where that heavenly mandate was flipped with China becoming a satellite of European power. It's very clear how Canada will fit into that long-established world view: we'd be subordinate, and expected to behave that way.
On the other hand, America is still a liberal democracy with a heritage and culture rooted in the English liberal tradition (liberal meaning freedom, not a misappropriated synonym for trendy left wing activism.) Trump is a symptom of a rising wave of illiberal populism in the US, but even the cretins who stormed the US Capitol on January 6 claimed they were doing so because of a "stolen election" - a misguided, misinformed commitment to *democracy*, not just a personality cult in service of a narcissistic buffoon with authoritarian instincts.
I think it's pretty clear that Canada needs to band up with other liberal democracies. That's our tradition, and it's one that's led to incredible gains human prosperity anywhere it's taken root. The US may be going through a rough patch, but there's more hope that US liberal democratic culture will reassert itself in the short term than that the Chinese Communist Party will finally be forced to let China have the full benefit of that tradition.