Sure seems that the MOU is another Liberal government PR stunt. “ Everyone look at us. We’re getting it done.”Another distraction. No private investors will ever sign up with those conditions.
This was always a pipe dream, I said so on day 1, and see nothing to change my opinion. Even getting KXL back on track or a new pipeline crossing into the USA and feeding LNG, oil or bitumen to Asia from a Washington State terminal is likely a pipe dream. Canada just does NOT want prosperity. This is what fuels the separatist agenda.
That the TMX pipeline is "only" running at 90% of capacity raises the question: why do you actually expect it to run at 100% capacity? What comes through the pipeline has to be tanked and loaded if it is shipped overseas for a start. Also it is not strictly a dilbit pipeline. It is also shipping synthetic crude and other crude derivatives which have to be separated. These complexities make 90% a pretty good target.
As far as expanding the amount shipped, there is a 20" pipeline from Sumas Prairie to Anacortes which currently has a refining capacity on the order of 600,000 bbl/day. This pipeline can handle only 100,000 to 200,000 bbl per day. This is harder than it looks from a political viewpoint however as Washington state is democratic and would therefore likely be hostile to the permitting of a pipeline expansion no matter how short. The refinery currently refines Alaskan oil primarily which has declined since 2008.
If we are going to discuss pipelines which advantage Canada however, we have to go back to Energy East. At the time it was shot down by ENGOs, it was assumed that the total capacity of the pipeline would be going offshore as dilbit. Currently, Atlantic Canada imports on the order of 500,000 bbl per day, primarily from the US. A great deal of this oil may be Canadian oil refined at US gulf coast refineries and represents a $10 B import into Canada.
While the Northern Gateway pipeline represents the simplest political problem, it is hardly a "no brainer". The problem with the Major Projects initiative from the Carney administration is that it will be making judgements on winners and losers, which governments are historically bad at.
We will get the extra capacity in Trans Mountain and Vancouver will dredge the harbour to allow Aframax tankers to come in. That is all. If us Albertans really believed in this we would jump up and buy shares at say $10,000 each to move this pipeline ahead. Show some earnest money so to speak.
I must question why so many people think that one singular pipeline that would take years to build, even with all the roadblocks moved out of the way, is our big huge path to prosperity . Go figure out what it would bring to the Alberta and Canadian treasury on an annual basis as a percent of revenues. Its small, really small. There is just too much fervent passion put onto this one particular item. Would it be a positive, of course. But the amount of vitrol costs the country more in lost opportunity that cohesion brings than whatever can be made from a pipeline. Plus, Alberta has less than a 100 years of this stuff left to pull out of the ground. Its not the best play long term to be so aggressively focused on this. Alberta will be in massive trouble 40 years from now if they are still pushing their hopes on bitumen pipelines.
PADD5 (West coast), where any oil to the US goes from the pipeline is effectively an independent market. No reason to expect the same discount there.
Why does the current two pipes of TMX need to be sold to build a third pipe?
TMXX, going to Deltaport instead of Burnaby (to get the larger ships) is the only 'route to asia' that makes any sense. And as a bonus it may force the port out of the (mostly US) Coal export buisness.
It will give Magpie Danny fodder for her spring election campaign although I have always thought the MOU had just enough meat to suggest hope and way too much not freaking likely to ever come to any practical fruition.
Politicians holding out unrealistic expectations and promises. Same song book, different page.
Thank you. The best summary I've seen of why this is pipedream not a pipeline.
Sure seems that the MOU is another Liberal government PR stunt. “ Everyone look at us. We’re getting it done.”Another distraction. No private investors will ever sign up with those conditions.
When the MOU was first announced, I thought Premier Smith settled for too little, too early.
I think I was wrong. I think she knows exactly what she is doing.
She has accepted Prime Minister Carney on his terms. Now it is up to the Prime Minister to follow through.
This MOU is a monstrously flawed document from any reasonable point of view.
In the meantime, while the Prime Minister treads water, Premier Smith is proposing additional pipelines that take alternate routes.
She is accumulating political capital while the Prime Minister expends his.
Prime Minister Carney is in way over his head, and Premier Smith just keeps pouring on the water.
Our “crisis management expert” PM has been given a lesson in shrewd project management.
Some game theory expert.
This was always a pipe dream, I said so on day 1, and see nothing to change my opinion. Even getting KXL back on track or a new pipeline crossing into the USA and feeding LNG, oil or bitumen to Asia from a Washington State terminal is likely a pipe dream. Canada just does NOT want prosperity. This is what fuels the separatist agenda.
That the TMX pipeline is "only" running at 90% of capacity raises the question: why do you actually expect it to run at 100% capacity? What comes through the pipeline has to be tanked and loaded if it is shipped overseas for a start. Also it is not strictly a dilbit pipeline. It is also shipping synthetic crude and other crude derivatives which have to be separated. These complexities make 90% a pretty good target.
As far as expanding the amount shipped, there is a 20" pipeline from Sumas Prairie to Anacortes which currently has a refining capacity on the order of 600,000 bbl/day. This pipeline can handle only 100,000 to 200,000 bbl per day. This is harder than it looks from a political viewpoint however as Washington state is democratic and would therefore likely be hostile to the permitting of a pipeline expansion no matter how short. The refinery currently refines Alaskan oil primarily which has declined since 2008.
If we are going to discuss pipelines which advantage Canada however, we have to go back to Energy East. At the time it was shot down by ENGOs, it was assumed that the total capacity of the pipeline would be going offshore as dilbit. Currently, Atlantic Canada imports on the order of 500,000 bbl per day, primarily from the US. A great deal of this oil may be Canadian oil refined at US gulf coast refineries and represents a $10 B import into Canada.
While the Northern Gateway pipeline represents the simplest political problem, it is hardly a "no brainer". The problem with the Major Projects initiative from the Carney administration is that it will be making judgements on winners and losers, which governments are historically bad at.
Don't start any climate stuff until the pipeline is in the ground!!!
Conman Carney's kabuki farce. Danielle Smith fully aware while preparing alternatives.
Sadly, I agree, a pipeline is a pipe dream …
There is not even a route in any form in any planning stage and BC and FN are lined up in opposition.
And yet they wonder why Nutriens chose an American port for their potash, and why Alberta’s separatist movement is getting louder.
Carney is a shrewd operator … he expects Alberta to play ball, knowing full well he’s set up BC and FN to take the blame for his failure.
And yes, I have no doubt the MOU will fail.
We will get the extra capacity in Trans Mountain and Vancouver will dredge the harbour to allow Aframax tankers to come in. That is all. If us Albertans really believed in this we would jump up and buy shares at say $10,000 each to move this pipeline ahead. Show some earnest money so to speak.
I must question why so many people think that one singular pipeline that would take years to build, even with all the roadblocks moved out of the way, is our big huge path to prosperity . Go figure out what it would bring to the Alberta and Canadian treasury on an annual basis as a percent of revenues. Its small, really small. There is just too much fervent passion put onto this one particular item. Would it be a positive, of course. But the amount of vitrol costs the country more in lost opportunity that cohesion brings than whatever can be made from a pipeline. Plus, Alberta has less than a 100 years of this stuff left to pull out of the ground. Its not the best play long term to be so aggressively focused on this. Alberta will be in massive trouble 40 years from now if they are still pushing their hopes on bitumen pipelines.
PADD5 (West coast), where any oil to the US goes from the pipeline is effectively an independent market. No reason to expect the same discount there.
Why does the current two pipes of TMX need to be sold to build a third pipe?
TMXX, going to Deltaport instead of Burnaby (to get the larger ships) is the only 'route to asia' that makes any sense. And as a bonus it may force the port out of the (mostly US) Coal export buisness.
It will give Magpie Danny fodder for her spring election campaign although I have always thought the MOU had just enough meat to suggest hope and way too much not freaking likely to ever come to any practical fruition.
Politicians holding out unrealistic expectations and promises. Same song book, different page.