Sure seems that the MOU is another Liberal government PR stunt. “ Everyone look at us. We’re getting it done.”Another distraction. No private investors will ever sign up with those conditions.
I truly hope it all happens. I just think it will be hard. And governments are not always good at hard things. As @mattgurney never tires of telling us.
That the TMX pipeline is "only" running at 90% of capacity raises the question: why do you actually expect it to run at 100% capacity? What comes through the pipeline has to be tanked and loaded if it is shipped overseas for a start. Also it is not strictly a dilbit pipeline. It is also shipping synthetic crude and other crude derivatives which have to be separated. These complexities make 90% a pretty good target.
As far as expanding the amount shipped, there is a 20" pipeline from Sumas Prairie to Anacortes which currently has a refining capacity on the order of 600,000 bbl/day. This pipeline can handle only 100,000 to 200,000 bbl per day. This is harder than it looks from a political viewpoint however as Washington state is democratic and would therefore likely be hostile to the permitting of a pipeline expansion no matter how short. The refinery currently refines Alaskan oil primarily which has declined since 2008.
If we are going to discuss pipelines which advantage Canada however, we have to go back to Energy East. At the time it was shot down by ENGOs, it was assumed that the total capacity of the pipeline would be going offshore as dilbit. Currently, Atlantic Canada imports on the order of 500,000 bbl per day, primarily from the US. A great deal of this oil may be Canadian oil refined at US gulf coast refineries and represents a $10 B import into Canada.
While the Northern Gateway pipeline represents the simplest political problem, it is hardly a "no brainer". The problem with the Major Projects initiative from the Carney administration is that it will be making judgements on winners and losers, which governments are historically bad at.
This was always a pipe dream, I said so on day 1, and see nothing to change my opinion. Even getting KXL back on track or a new pipeline crossing into the USA and feeding LNG, oil or bitumen to Asia from a Washington State terminal is likely a pipe dream. Canada just does NOT want prosperity. This is what fuels the separatist agenda.
I refer you to your own words ".... Alberta's separatist movement is getting louder ..."
I, like many Albertans, have been listening (somewhat favorably) to the siren song of separation but, upon the signing of the MOU, became a bit more willing to listen further (skeptically, to be sure, but still listening ...) to the "stayers" who oppose separation. If the MOU fails, well, I will be back to the siren song and perhaps even singing it myself.
Alberta will still thrive. There are now 4 proposed data centres in AB … we may need all the LNG we can produce for them, if we built them all. Let the rest of the country lose jobs we can become an important dada hub for all of North America. Even if only 1 gets built, the amount of power required is staggering. It will need its own power plant.
Good reasons to leave, since the ROC are only good at taking from AB and doing nothing to assist in reducing this countries staggering debt.
Sheila, I agree that the MOU is likely to fail, but ....
As noted above, I have been willing to listen to the separatist proponents; I haven't made up my mind yet but I am listening somewhat favorably.
If you read the MOU it is a real list of "hopes and wishes" and there is just a whole lot of stuff in it that is supposed to happen by April 1, 2026 and then some other stuff that is supposed to happen in the subsequent period.
When the MOU was signed I chose to look at it and say that the feds appeared to have made some significant moves. Of course, those moves were all conditional on the subsequent agreements. I therefore said that, perhaps April 1 is too optimistic so wait six to twelve months to see if the agreements can come about and, if they do, wait another six months (note: I do not include the twelve months here). My point is that any separation will be terrifically disruptive so if we can avoid it that is best.
On the other hand, I don't think that we can avoid separation and that this MOU is simply a delaying mechanism. So, give a little time after April 1 but not a whole lot; we have to keep on the Province to ensure that they are not sandbagged by time frame delay.
The truth is that I don't want this for myself but for my grandchildren.
We need a referendum … those numbers will put everything else in perspective.
IMHO the structure of Canada means Alberta will never have a fair voice so it’s about a lot more than the MOU.
The MOU is a cheap bribe for people not looking at the deeper structure of this federation.
Atlantic Canada combined has less than 1/2 the population of Alberta, but the same number of seats. The senate has over 80% liberals and is nothing close to what our founders envisioned. A triple E senate, could have been created to offset these imbalances, the courts said NO merely to electing senators. By the time Careny is done we will have a 90% liberal senate … this is a deal breaker for me, and has been for a very long time.
7 of 9 Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trudeau, and look at their decisions of late, is it any wonder Smith has resorted to using S.33, and get pilloried for it in the national press.
We are different, and mocked for that difference, I’m tired of being mocked for what is basic common sense.
Mark Carney resembles the Wizard of Oz, smoke and mirrors with plenty of showmanship but in the end it is all an illusion. Reduce taxes and regulation, protect private property, park your climate zealotry, work with industry and the private investment will come. Canada is a land of natural riches waiting to be developed for a hungry market.
Once the product is exportable to international markets obviously, US purchasers on the coast cannot negotiate the same discount US pipeline customers get. And of course there isn't a private investor for another pipeline while legislation is in place to make it a non-starter. It is entirely plausible that asian investors would be happy to access Canadian oil as a means to diversify their energy supplies, but Canada has to provide sufficient assurances that Trudeau/Guilbeault legislation preventing it can be worked around. There is no other export diversification option Canada has with the kind of value the pipeline offers. Are we serious about lessening our reliance on US markets or not?
PADD5 (West coast), where any oil to the US goes from the pipeline is effectively an independent market. No reason to expect the same discount there.
Why does the current two pipes of TMX need to be sold to build a third pipe?
TMXX, going to Deltaport instead of Burnaby (to get the larger ships) is the only 'route to asia' that makes any sense. And as a bonus it may force the port out of the (mostly US) Coal export buisness.
So true! This MOU is all pixie dust. Carney has played Smith like a fiddle. Hearing predictions of sub $40 oil in the next two years, you think any private company is rushing to invest billions into a project going nowhere? The ultimate irony is, even this bought Smith boos from her separatist base. Expansion of existing routes is the only real thing that we can hope for.
I must question why so many people think that one singular pipeline that would take years to build, even with all the roadblocks moved out of the way, is our big huge path to prosperity . Go figure out what it would bring to the Alberta and Canadian treasury on an annual basis as a percent of revenues. Its small, really small. There is just too much fervent passion put onto this one particular item. Would it be a positive, of course. But the amount of vitrol costs the country more in lost opportunity that cohesion brings than whatever can be made from a pipeline. Plus, Alberta has less than a 100 years of this stuff left to pull out of the ground. Its not the best play long term to be so aggressively focused on this. Alberta will be in massive trouble 40 years from now if they are still pushing their hopes on bitumen pipelines.
It will give Magpie Danny fodder for her spring election campaign although I have always thought the MOU had just enough meat to suggest hope and way too much not freaking likely to ever come to any practical fruition.
Politicians holding out unrealistic expectations and promises. Same song book, different page.
We will get the extra capacity in Trans Mountain and Vancouver will dredge the harbour to allow Aframax tankers to come in. That is all. If us Albertans really believed in this we would jump up and buy shares at say $10,000 each to move this pipeline ahead. Show some earnest money so to speak.
Every time that I see a newspaper article on expanding TM I typically also see a picture of the Burnaby terminal. That picture shows a relatively modest tank farm which always leads me to wonder about the ability to actually expand the shipping terminal given the land restrictions for the tank farm. In turn, that causes me to wonder about the actual physical limitations of that terminal for expansion of the pipeline.
Thank you. The best summary I've seen of why this is pipedream not a pipeline.
Thanks!
Sure seems that the MOU is another Liberal government PR stunt. “ Everyone look at us. We’re getting it done.”Another distraction. No private investors will ever sign up with those conditions.
I truly hope it all happens. I just think it will be hard. And governments are not always good at hard things. As @mattgurney never tires of telling us.
Maybe a UCP publicity stunt too. The Alberta government did sign the MOU as well.
Agreed. The MOU may placate the Alberta referendum group!
That the TMX pipeline is "only" running at 90% of capacity raises the question: why do you actually expect it to run at 100% capacity? What comes through the pipeline has to be tanked and loaded if it is shipped overseas for a start. Also it is not strictly a dilbit pipeline. It is also shipping synthetic crude and other crude derivatives which have to be separated. These complexities make 90% a pretty good target.
As far as expanding the amount shipped, there is a 20" pipeline from Sumas Prairie to Anacortes which currently has a refining capacity on the order of 600,000 bbl/day. This pipeline can handle only 100,000 to 200,000 bbl per day. This is harder than it looks from a political viewpoint however as Washington state is democratic and would therefore likely be hostile to the permitting of a pipeline expansion no matter how short. The refinery currently refines Alaskan oil primarily which has declined since 2008.
If we are going to discuss pipelines which advantage Canada however, we have to go back to Energy East. At the time it was shot down by ENGOs, it was assumed that the total capacity of the pipeline would be going offshore as dilbit. Currently, Atlantic Canada imports on the order of 500,000 bbl per day, primarily from the US. A great deal of this oil may be Canadian oil refined at US gulf coast refineries and represents a $10 B import into Canada.
While the Northern Gateway pipeline represents the simplest political problem, it is hardly a "no brainer". The problem with the Major Projects initiative from the Carney administration is that it will be making judgements on winners and losers, which governments are historically bad at.
When the MOU was first announced, I thought Premier Smith settled for too little, too early.
I think I was wrong. I think she knows exactly what she is doing.
She has accepted Prime Minister Carney on his terms. Now it is up to the Prime Minister to follow through.
This MOU is a monstrously flawed document from any reasonable point of view.
In the meantime, while the Prime Minister treads water, Premier Smith is proposing additional pipelines that take alternate routes.
She is accumulating political capital while the Prime Minister expends his.
Prime Minister Carney is in way over his head, and Premier Smith just keeps pouring on the water.
Our “crisis management expert” PM has been given a lesson in shrewd project management.
Some game theory expert.
This was always a pipe dream, I said so on day 1, and see nothing to change my opinion. Even getting KXL back on track or a new pipeline crossing into the USA and feeding LNG, oil or bitumen to Asia from a Washington State terminal is likely a pipe dream. Canada just does NOT want prosperity. This is what fuels the separatist agenda.
Sadly, I agree, a pipeline is a pipe dream …
There is not even a route in any form in any planning stage and BC and FN are lined up in opposition.
And yet they wonder why Nutriens chose an American port for their potash, and why Alberta’s separatist movement is getting louder.
Carney is a shrewd operator … he expects Alberta to play ball, knowing full well he’s set up BC and FN to take the blame for his failure.
And yes, I have no doubt the MOU will fail.
And if the MOU fails .....
I refer you to your own words ".... Alberta's separatist movement is getting louder ..."
I, like many Albertans, have been listening (somewhat favorably) to the siren song of separation but, upon the signing of the MOU, became a bit more willing to listen further (skeptically, to be sure, but still listening ...) to the "stayers" who oppose separation. If the MOU fails, well, I will be back to the siren song and perhaps even singing it myself.
Not if, the MOU will fail.
Alberta will still thrive. There are now 4 proposed data centres in AB … we may need all the LNG we can produce for them, if we built them all. Let the rest of the country lose jobs we can become an important dada hub for all of North America. Even if only 1 gets built, the amount of power required is staggering. It will need its own power plant.
Good reasons to leave, since the ROC are only good at taking from AB and doing nothing to assist in reducing this countries staggering debt.
Sheila, I agree that the MOU is likely to fail, but ....
As noted above, I have been willing to listen to the separatist proponents; I haven't made up my mind yet but I am listening somewhat favorably.
If you read the MOU it is a real list of "hopes and wishes" and there is just a whole lot of stuff in it that is supposed to happen by April 1, 2026 and then some other stuff that is supposed to happen in the subsequent period.
When the MOU was signed I chose to look at it and say that the feds appeared to have made some significant moves. Of course, those moves were all conditional on the subsequent agreements. I therefore said that, perhaps April 1 is too optimistic so wait six to twelve months to see if the agreements can come about and, if they do, wait another six months (note: I do not include the twelve months here). My point is that any separation will be terrifically disruptive so if we can avoid it that is best.
On the other hand, I don't think that we can avoid separation and that this MOU is simply a delaying mechanism. So, give a little time after April 1 but not a whole lot; we have to keep on the Province to ensure that they are not sandbagged by time frame delay.
The truth is that I don't want this for myself but for my grandchildren.
We need a referendum … those numbers will put everything else in perspective.
IMHO the structure of Canada means Alberta will never have a fair voice so it’s about a lot more than the MOU.
The MOU is a cheap bribe for people not looking at the deeper structure of this federation.
Atlantic Canada combined has less than 1/2 the population of Alberta, but the same number of seats. The senate has over 80% liberals and is nothing close to what our founders envisioned. A triple E senate, could have been created to offset these imbalances, the courts said NO merely to electing senators. By the time Careny is done we will have a 90% liberal senate … this is a deal breaker for me, and has been for a very long time.
7 of 9 Supreme Court justices were appointed by Trudeau, and look at their decisions of late, is it any wonder Smith has resorted to using S.33, and get pilloried for it in the national press.
We are different, and mocked for that difference, I’m tired of being mocked for what is basic common sense.
I am curious what would constitute a “fair voice” for Alberta, in your opinion.
well equal seats vs population and elected senate would be a good start.
Well said!
Conman Carney's kabuki farce. Danielle Smith fully aware while preparing alternatives.
Mark Carney resembles the Wizard of Oz, smoke and mirrors with plenty of showmanship but in the end it is all an illusion. Reduce taxes and regulation, protect private property, park your climate zealotry, work with industry and the private investment will come. Canada is a land of natural riches waiting to be developed for a hungry market.
Don't start any climate stuff until the pipeline is in the ground!!!
Once the product is exportable to international markets obviously, US purchasers on the coast cannot negotiate the same discount US pipeline customers get. And of course there isn't a private investor for another pipeline while legislation is in place to make it a non-starter. It is entirely plausible that asian investors would be happy to access Canadian oil as a means to diversify their energy supplies, but Canada has to provide sufficient assurances that Trudeau/Guilbeault legislation preventing it can be worked around. There is no other export diversification option Canada has with the kind of value the pipeline offers. Are we serious about lessening our reliance on US markets or not?
The majority voting block in this country is socialist and will never allow this country to prosper. We are doomed to be a 3rd world level country.
Have you left yet?
Amusing
PADD5 (West coast), where any oil to the US goes from the pipeline is effectively an independent market. No reason to expect the same discount there.
Why does the current two pipes of TMX need to be sold to build a third pipe?
TMXX, going to Deltaport instead of Burnaby (to get the larger ships) is the only 'route to asia' that makes any sense. And as a bonus it may force the port out of the (mostly US) Coal export buisness.
So true! This MOU is all pixie dust. Carney has played Smith like a fiddle. Hearing predictions of sub $40 oil in the next two years, you think any private company is rushing to invest billions into a project going nowhere? The ultimate irony is, even this bought Smith boos from her separatist base. Expansion of existing routes is the only real thing that we can hope for.
I must question why so many people think that one singular pipeline that would take years to build, even with all the roadblocks moved out of the way, is our big huge path to prosperity . Go figure out what it would bring to the Alberta and Canadian treasury on an annual basis as a percent of revenues. Its small, really small. There is just too much fervent passion put onto this one particular item. Would it be a positive, of course. But the amount of vitrol costs the country more in lost opportunity that cohesion brings than whatever can be made from a pipeline. Plus, Alberta has less than a 100 years of this stuff left to pull out of the ground. Its not the best play long term to be so aggressively focused on this. Alberta will be in massive trouble 40 years from now if they are still pushing their hopes on bitumen pipelines.
It will give Magpie Danny fodder for her spring election campaign although I have always thought the MOU had just enough meat to suggest hope and way too much not freaking likely to ever come to any practical fruition.
Politicians holding out unrealistic expectations and promises. Same song book, different page.
We will get the extra capacity in Trans Mountain and Vancouver will dredge the harbour to allow Aframax tankers to come in. That is all. If us Albertans really believed in this we would jump up and buy shares at say $10,000 each to move this pipeline ahead. Show some earnest money so to speak.
The feds own all those shares now.
Every time that I see a newspaper article on expanding TM I typically also see a picture of the Burnaby terminal. That picture shows a relatively modest tank farm which always leads me to wonder about the ability to actually expand the shipping terminal given the land restrictions for the tank farm. In turn, that causes me to wonder about the actual physical limitations of that terminal for expansion of the pipeline.