Mark Stobbe: How to actually cut down on auto thefts

Toronto has a real problem. But there are already some proven solutions.

Hyundais recently became a target for theft due to a social media fad.

By: Mark Stobbe

One sign that motor vehicle theft is getting out of hand is that justice ministers plural have their cars stolen.

In 2001, Saskatchewan Justice Minister Chris Axworthy had to call a colleague to get a ride to a press conference to reveal his government’s plan to crack down on car theft in Regina. Axworthy’s car had been stolen the night before.

More recently, former justice minister David Lametti had two of his government-issued vehicles stolen. His successor, Arif Virani, has lost only one to thieves. I’m a little surprised that the government’s public relations folk have not put out a press release trumpeting a 50-per-cent cut in the theft of the cars of justice ministers.

The number and rate of motor vehicle thefts in Canada has fluctuated a lot in the 21st century. According to Statistics Canada, the number of vehicles reported stolen in Canada peaked at 174,208 in 2003. The number dropped to 72,512 a decade later but has increased every year since 2013 except for the COVID lockdown year of 2020. In 2022, Canada was up to 105,673 reported vehicle thefts.

The vehicle theft rate (reported thefts per 100,000 population) peaked at 550.6 in 2003. It got down to 206.69 in 2013 before beginning to rise again. In 2022, the rate was up to 271.44 per 100,000 people. Statistics Canada has not yet reported the official numbers for 2023, but there is every indication that the rate will be higher still.

These national numbers mask a lot of localized variation. Let’s look at two cities — Regina and Toronto for the year peak year of 2003, the low year of 2013, and 2022 — the most year for which we have the most recent complete statistics. The table tells the tale.

Source: Statistics Canada. Table 35-10-0177-01 Incident-based crime statistics, by detailed violations, Canada, provinces, territories, Census Metropolitan Areas and Canadian Forces Military Police

So what’s going on? Why is Toronto supplanting Regina as a car thief haven and car owner’s nightmare? Why has Regina’s motor vehicle theft rate continued to drop, while Toronto’s rate has almost tripled in the last decade? There is every reason to believe that when the 2024 statistics are released, they will show that motor vehicle thefts are a bigger problem in Toronto than in Regina. A few decades ago, that would have been inconceivable.

The key to the puzzle is to understand that while motor vehicle thefts are counted as a single thing, the numbers represent two separate and distinct types of crimes.

Some vehicles are stolen for thrills and excitement. The thieves are usually young teens or pre-teens who steal a vehicle in order to drive it around until it runs out of gas, they get into an accident, they get caught by police, or they see another vehicle to steal.

Other vehicles are stolen for profit. The thieves are older professionals. In the past, these stolen vehicles would often be disassembled to be sold as parts. Today, they are usually put in shipping containers to be sold in Africa and the Middle East.

These are two very different types of crimes.

When Regina vied with Winnipeg for the title of being the vehicle theft capital of Canada, the majority of the cars were being stolen by about 50 teenagers. The press conference that justice minister Axworthy was on his way to when his own car was stolen was to announce a program of surveillance, targeted criminal charges, and incarceration. The program helped cut Regina’s vehicle theft rate.

The other big factor was a technological fix. “Immobilizer” ignition systems made it impossible for a thief to start the car without a key programmed for the individual car. These systems began to be introduced into more expensive cars around the turn of the century. In 2007, the federal government made them mandatory for all new vehicles sold in Canada. As older vehicles were replaced by newer ones, the proportion of cars that were stealable by “hot-wiring” declined. So too did vehicle theft rates across Canada.

The effectiveness of these teenager-thwarting systems in cutting vehicle theft rates was recently demonstrated in the United States. In that country, no national legislation mandating the systems was enacted. However, all car manufacturers installed the technology because they understood that car purchasers preferred vehicles that were harder to steal. All, that is, except Kia and Hyundai. A few years ago, there was a TikTok fad of teenagers posting videos of themselves stealing Kias and Hyundais. Thefts of these brands increased by over a thousand per cent in a few months, while the theft rate for cars made by other companies remained constant. While the U.S. government did not mandate the installation of the anti-theft devices, insurance companies did. The Korean manufacturers (and their customers) were told that insurance would be denied to any car without the immobilizer system. That, as they say, was that.

Toronto never had the same level of stupid, thieving teenager problem that Regina once had. The dramatic increase in the number of vehicle thefts is being driven by professional thieves. The “improved” technology making these thefts easy was the introduction of keyless ignition systems — starting in more expensive vehicles. These systems tell a vehicle that the owner is starting the car without the owner having to engage in the horrendous, soul-destroying labour of taking a key out of their pocket, inserting it into the ignition and giving it a slight turn. To make a long story short, it did not take professional thieves long figure out ways to fool the vehicle. With the right technology, a thief can steal a car even more quickly than a teenager used to be able to hot-wire one. Combine this with a proliferation of empty shipping containers and loose customs security for outgoing shipments in ports and you have a bonanza payday for professional thieves.

The only thing saving us from total catastrophe is that the potential joy-riding teenagers cannot afford the technology used by the pros. But give it time.

Even though the type of car theft prevalent in Regina a few decades ago is very different from what is happening in Toronto today, Regina’s experience points towards a dual-track solution.

First — police and the justice system have to get tough. Arrest some thieves and throw them in jail. This provides both deterrence and incapacitation.

But getting tough will not solve the growing problem. The other part of the solution is technological — or, more accurately, the application of existing technologies. Solutions exist. Car purchasers have to emphatically tell car manufacturers that security is valued more than minor convenience. Insurance companies or governments can give the manufacturers the same message more forcefully. In the end, it does not really matter which one imposes their will on the manufacturers, but one has to step to the plate.

Until that happens, vehicles will continue to disappear at an increasing rate.

Mark Stobbe teaches Sociology at Lakeland College in Lloydminster, Alberta. His most recent book is No-Body Homicides: The Evolution of Investigation and Prosecution. His Substack site is Inquiries and Observations.

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