I don't often comment, though (or perhaps because) I generally agree with both Matt and Jen. But I have to say a few words in praise of this piece. It's painful to have to be grateful to people who genuinely don't mean us well, but here we are. Thank you, Donald Trump, and Fox News, and various other generally unhinged right-wing American (I struggle for the correct name to call them) 'people', who, as Matt points out, seem able to exert some force on Canada's people in power. It would be much better if our system was functioning, so that problems responsibly and sensibly identified were acknowledged, and plans were published regarding how they would be addressed, so that the plans themselves could also be subjected to critical analysis. This doesn't seem utopian, but I join Matt in despair that we can't seem to do it in this country as presently constitued.
At the last election, Canadian voters made a clear statement that we don't want accountability for our leaders, as long as we get a change of figurehead every so often.
Of course the media is bribed and largely controlled, but the rot goes deeper.
It may be annoying that our only accountability comes from Trump, but even he is better than the Gods of the Copybook Headings who come next.
Canadians appear to be quite content with the current arrangement where “free” entitlements are financed by resources extracted by an ever shrinking minority that still believes in hard work and initiative and delivered to an ever increasing majority of un-or low productive individuals. And when taxes on the producers get too high and discouraged them, the unborn generations get to pay through borrowing.
It used to be that taking “charity” - a concept alien to a godless (conveniently labeled “secular”) society - was a source of shame and something to avoid and keep as brief as possible. Now over two or three generations thanks to self aggrandizing politicians and civil servants abetted by propaganda it has become a source of pride and part of the national fabric. Not only on an individual basis but in industrial subsidies to intrinsically uneconomic and outdated industries like auto and battery plants, fisheries, etc.
Since the takers outnumber the makers I hold very little hope for any spontaneous change on the political front. But at some stage a “dog in the manger” attitude keeping unused resources like northern minerals and fossil fuels and fresh water will be unsustainable and others will move in. And personally at least with 51st state you won’t have to learn Chinese
and be sent to a forced labor camp if you say bad things about the leader.
Just to put my hand up as a dissatisfied LPC voter who was ready to leave the party until they changed leaders (ie one of many millions of people just like me who swung the 2025 election)
The reason I did this is because I believe that Carney is so different from Trudeau that he will reinvent the party to be back to kind of a 1990s centrism (Chrétien and Martin style).
I know you disagree, that you think that his book Values proves that he’ll be just as leftist (even if not as ineffectual) as Trudeau. I disagree and I think only time will tell. I’m losing patience with Carney to start to make some hard choices, if we don’t see any movement by end of 2026 I think my vote is up for grabs again.
The fact that you say "up for grabs" proves my point - real accountability is about punishing the guilty, even if you aren't sure the alternative is satisfactory or even better. Were you really confident, as opposed to merely uncertain, that Poilievre would be worse than Carney?
I do give you credit for being more explicit than any of the journalists I am following, who are allergic to giving Carney a deadline of any sort.
What can I say, I’m a natural LPC/PC voter. I like powerful government programmes, I like following rules and generally want my fellow citizens to also follow the rules (and advocate to change the rules if they don’t like them, or face the consequences if they deliberately disobey as a protest).
I’m not a natural Reform voter. Poilievre’s support for the Trucker Convoy was a dealbreaker for me; still is. I get that Reform stands for individual freedoms and combatting government overreach. Those aren’t and never have been my values.
I may have voted for the Poilievre Reform CPC anyway, because I was so angry at Trudeau and his policies — except then I didn’t have to make that choice since 90s Centrist Carney took over the LPC.
Trudeau is out of power, he was punished.
I’ll consider voting CPC again if they show me that the Progressive Conservative centrist party is in the driver’s seat, not the Reform part.
Some of the problems with today's Liberals are that law breaking is totally ok for any reason other than anti-regime political protest and that government programs spend powerfully but deliver weakly. I don't think most Liberal voters actually would say they are ok with either of those, but revealed preference shows otherwise.
Last comment I’ll make in this thread and then I’ll let it go. I think of the Carney Liberals as a separate, different party from the Trudeau Liberals. The Trudeau Liberals had lost my vote. The Carney Liberals have it (for now — I want to see results this year).
That may be a naive, foolish, wrongheaded way to think about it. But it is the truth of how I thought about it when I was voting last year, and I think how millions of others treat the Carney LPC as well.
I doubt it. Far more likely it will be like covid lockdowns and mandates, where we go from "the status quo is correct and only bad people want to discuss it" to "the new situation is correct and only bad people want to discuss it (but the old, completely different, status quo was somehow also correct)" without ever discussing it.
I basically agree, but I find it fascinating how the electorate can put people in office who make a huge mess. Obviously they don't think that will be the effect of their vote. They think they're going to elect someone who will make things better. Understanding what is wrong with people's thinking is hard sometimes, but worthwhile. Why did the US elect Trump twice? Why did Canadians elect Trudeau 3 times?
I’m not trolling but the way to create more accountability in Canada would be to unite with the US. Canadians already pay more attention to Trump than their own politicians. Voters need a proper feedback loop that one country one media environment would provide. Dont hate me!
The comment that Canada was created as part of a fear of America is spot on if anyone cares to check our history during/after their Revolution (attacking Canada twice), because of the 1812 War and because of all the attacks by Fenians after their Civil War and even some incursions by “others” before that war. Plus all sorts of threats up until about WWI.
We love to imitate them, we watch their media and movies, we travel there to get out of the cold, we love to hate them too when they act like — Americans of a certain type — a type which is in charge down there right now.
So jumping to action when they “really” threaten us is quite understandable — but yes — doing the right thing (particular on our egregiously treated defence portfolio) should not depend on the Yanks’ impatience.
We need to grow up and do so very quickly.
A little less emotion and a little more focus on substance.
I see the creation of British North America in a different light. The Loyalists who fled North - or South particularly if they had slaves - were avoiding combat in the hopes that the British Redcoats would kill off the Patriots so they - the Loyalists- wouldn’t have to do anything. A Canadian military tradition that continues to this day. 🙄.
When the Patriots won the some of the loyalists resettled while others petitioned to return to England or the Southern colonies. Then 80 years or so later the Brits who were tired of the whole mess and getting out of the empire business continued with their inimitable practice of combining tribes who were mortal enemies( ie Upper Canada and Lower Canada (Quebec) into tidy “country” packages. The Middle East and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh being other examples.
John, the UELs who arrived in Canada had, as lineal ideological/theological descendants the Family Compact of Upper and Lower Canada. The ideological/theological descendants of the Family Compact are the Laurentian Elite of today. And they are all, every damned one of them rabidly anti-American.
So, as is said, history doesn't repeat but it sure does rhyme.
Awesome expression! Yes the family compact still rules today AFAIK. They are the ones controlling who gets to run as candidates in elections regardless of Party - like the Lords in England used to do. (Amazing how emigrants always seem to preserve the rules of the country they left even after their original country has moved on.) The Quebec French equivalent are the seigneurs who controlled the land in Lower Canada (New France).
Except that all the Loyalists remained where they were until after the war and then they moved to four areas of what are now Cdn provinces. Thousands of them were in Loyalist regiments of which there were many. My family stemmed from Germany in 1710 to New York Colony and were loyal to King George III. Then departed as some of latecomers to Canada closer to 1790. BTW until the monarchs of France and Spain helped the rebels, the latter were not winning. Check the history.
I did write that some stayed in the remaining northern British colonies but others went back to Britain or Jamaica Bermuda etc. I didn’t do a count of many stayed in the Maritimes colonies vs went to upper Canada etc doesn’t matter or who helped (Indian tribes also fought on both sides) the Patriots did win in the end. My ancestors were part of the enslaved Lower Canada French (overseen by the Catholic Church) who had no dog in the fight.
Except at the Battle of Chateuguay many French Cdns fought with the British regulars against the Yanks. As well, even in 1775 when Montreal and Quebec were attacked by Montgomery and Benedict Arnold, local residents also helped the British troops in the garrison
Yes your account agrees with Canadian history texts. The key thing is they fought WITH (“helped”) the British regulars. Did the “King’s shllling”( conscription) have something to do with it? From the viewpoint of a people enslaved for all practical purposes, I see no reason to support either side except for the secret enjoyment of seeing Anglos killing each other (how do you spell “schadenfreude”?).
I forgot that there was an established Anglo class (Brits, Scots,Irish) who were the dominant class and so did have something to lose. I mistakenly assumed they were all French my bad.
Well eventually you might get your way. If AB separates then so will Quebec. Or vice vice versa.
BTW. Having studied Cdn history in detail and having lived in Quebec and having worked with many Francophones for about 50 years and having several Francophones relatives — I would add that the Québecois left behind after the “conquest” were the peasant and farmer class. Most of the gentry and many of the trades folks packed up and left to return to a France most had never seen. Maybe they participated in the Revolution in 1789.
Yep you’re right history mentions the middle and upper class leaving New France after the conquest. The middle class that moved in were the Scots and English. plus the Catholic Church which as I recall from my experience as a child of 8 to 16 seemed to have been mainly governed by the doctrines of the Spanish Inquisition. I had a French last name offset by an Anglo culture which made me a mul@@to trusted by no one in either Canada or Quebec.
Don't blame me, I voted Conservative and I also voted for Alberta Separation... Now Carney is close to a majority without even winning an election. You cannot make this up. The Gov has bought the MSM and there is no 4th Estate, save the Line, Juno, The Hub and at times, the Rebel. Jettison the CBC from the news business, NOW, and cut the papers off of the taxpayer teet.
Kevin, you haven't voted for separation yet: you can only do that in October.
What you might have done is to sign the petition. If you haven't found a petition signature collection point, do it really, really soon. If, by saying that you have signed, you mean that you signed online to support the Alberta Prosperity Project, that is not the petition: get out and actually sign the thing!
If you want to jettison all those that you list, then make good and sure that you vote in October.
Canada can still be saved. But it’s going to have to get worse before it gets better.
I have often said that an invasion or seizure of Canadian land by any hostile power (most likely to happen in the Arctic) would almost be a blessing in disguise because it would be a sudden wake up call to everything.
The alternative is a steady grinding-down of living standards and stability, a boiled frog scenario where nobody’s personal situation is at any point so bad that they’re willing to take to the streets to demand change, but together we just sink and sink and sink.
We’re caught in a number of transitional loss traps — four of the largest are dairy supply management, inefficient public sector professional unions at the working level, the “backyarded” property owners who don’t want to see their properties lose value and so will forsake all young people who will never get in, and our telco and bank oligopolies.
I think only a shock to the system can break a polity out of transitional loss traps. Everyone has to feel scared enough to overcome the resistance of those who lose in a change scenario. Like, just to pick on the dairy farmers again — they run sympathetic ads and people don’t have the fortitude to ignore them. We have to be scared enough to be willing to hurt sympathetic dairy farmers. (Again, sorry dairy farmers, it’s not just you, but it’s the easiest example.)
I would love to see Danielle Smith stand up and quote Tolkien.
I should like to save the Shire, if I could - though there have been times when I thought the inhabitants too stupid and dull for words, and have felt that an earthquake or an invasion of dragons might be good for them.
I agree whole heartedly and truly believe the core values of people in the West is so different from the ROC that some form of division needs to occur. I believe the Separatist movement in AB would be satisfied with a structure that contained two equal entities made up of East & West (divide Ontario into two with the western half becoming part of the WEST. The provinces could keep their current structure within the two entities if they wanted.
That would be very sad. I have lived/worked/visited every province and Territory that makes up Canada and it is a wonderous thing. I wish more people could see that.
We are too stupid and too willing to trust anyone who promises "free" stuff that is not at all free, not even the words. Why are the words not free? Those words are what cause people to vote for the rascals that are in power and who will lead Canada to it's ruin.
Matt Gurney has described a cardinal fatal problem causing the destruction of Canada. And so described one of the several cardinal reasons for Alberta separatism.
Maybe conservatives should look in the mirror instead of finger pointing? The caucus is losing confidence in Pierre and he keeps himself fairly isolated most other than the inner circle . With Carney being far more moderate than Trudeau , this is not a surprise . Unfortunately, instead of changing , the Cons are finger pointing angry and their supporters are flooding comments sections with doom and gloom . That won’t win a national government . You are all acting like quitters instead. I vote conservative and it is frustrating me that the core won’t admit they need to completely revamp .
Events like this is just adding extra fuel to the Alberta independence fire. Don't they care about the greater effects to the country seeing our votes as being next to useless? Or, they think that no matter what happens in a independence vote, that Alberta will be brought to heel and put back in it's place? Either way, it's incredibly callous and dangerous for the continued health of the nation and it's institutions. I hope Carney's majority government is worth all the national arson that the Liberals are committing right now.
Realistic and thus a correct take. My bet is on the 3-rd sentence. They are a 6-year-old f##kking around with an unprotected live electrical outlet.
Re the last sentence, my take is that conman Carney's majority government is the end of Canada.
I do not see any way in which Canada's institutions, weakened, fouled up and corrupted by multi-year "Liberal" abuse, will survive what the Fraud Carney is doing to Canada.
For Liberals, acquiring power no matter the cost is its own justification. I will have hope for country if Carney, once he has his vaunted majority, cancels the back-door climate regulations, the gun-grab, the tanker ban and allows a new pipeline to go through. Sadly, I can’t see any of those things happening. It’s now far more likely that Alberta will achieve independence before any key past Liberal planks get turfed.
Carney is a Laurentian corruptocrat and will not cancel anything that you listed. Laurentian corruptocrats constant goal is to perpetually strangle Alberta, they wrote the constitution that way.
Wonderful piece. Canada, home of the mediocre, comfortable, the it’s good enough status quo that suits and benefits our well paid, pensioned leadership class just fine. Sadly, I dont think even the threat of Donald Trump could entice our governments to take on the powerful forces ( the Medical establishment, hospitals and doctors) that are preventing reforms in how our ERs, our GPs perform. And our provincial premiers arent frightened enough by the Orange Madman to knock down those bad interprovincial trade barriers. O Canada…
I'm not sure Trump cares about our social safety net. He wants us to do our share to secure the Arctic from the Russians and Chinese. With his 51st state talk, he's telling us to get our house in order or the US will have to do it for us. It's too great a security risk to their interests. I don't think Trump gives a crap about us, honestly.
Trump doesn’t care a whit for Canada and why should he. He will care if we allow China to take over our rare earth minerals, our oil fields, our mines and our land…Carney is allowing this and encouraging this. I fear for the future of Canada. I’m Albertan and I’m voting for separation.
See my comment. These are Transitional Loss Traps, a well known phenomenon by which any change that benefits the broader society causes concentrated harm to those incumbent groups, so they then muster a fierce PR and political campaign to oppose the change. The classic Canadian example is dairy supply management.
Usually only an outside force, a shock to the system, can break these, once the regular population feels so much pressure or fear that they’re willing to risk the backlash (eg sympathetic ads showing family dairy farms getting crushed by American multinationals).
A classic example of a Transitional Loss Trap: taxi medallions. Medallion owners had so much invested in them that the supply would never change and taxi quality was crap, etc. because no politician wanted to take on the medallion owners or lose their bribes/donations.
What solved it? An outside alien-invasion level event: Uber.
I don’t think the current version of Trump (he of the 🌮 bloviating) is enough to break Canada out of our (many) Transitional Loss Traps we’re in right now. Things are going to have to get worse.
Politicians, Bureaucrats, Journalists: Stop being Conservative or Liberal or NDP or Bloc. Be honest, have morals, show empathy, value integrity. Just be a good person.
Nice job, Matt. But your piece stops short of 100% accuracy. We don't really fear "the terror of the guy running the country next door". Complacent Canadians fear, right down to their poopy pants, ANY guy with initiative and determination for change.
Speaking of accountability, how about our Prime Minister not actually encouraging conflict of interest by explaining it’s a great thing for political spouses to have corporate jobs that benefit from government connections.
Sad, scary, and unfortunately all true. I would suggest that a less government whipped media would be a first step to fixing some of the accountability issues but alas money rules.
Good article. You and Jen have said before that Canada had stopped being a serious country years ago. The Liberals are a cos-play government. Carney can deliver a decent speech at Davos, but things still suck in this country.
That was not a decent speech. That was a bafllegab bs deception aimed at saps. Pay attention to how Carney is now steering the country into penury and CCP servitude.
Because the managerial élites are now so large and have such a dominant effect on our educational system, we are actually teaching most people to manage, not to think. Not only do we not reward thought, we punish it as unprofessional. Our élite is primarily and increasingly managerial. A managerial élite manages. A crisis, unfortunately, requires thought. Thought is not a management function.
The conclusion drawn by … most of our élites … is that the population constitutes a deep and dangerous well of ignorance and irrationality; if our civilization is in crisis, the fault must lie with the populace, which is not rising to the inescapable challenges. And yet civilizations do not collapse because the citizenry are corrupt or lazy or anti-intellectual. These people do not have the power and influence to either lead or destroy. Civilizations collapse when those who have power fail to do their jobs.
Societies grow into systems. The systems require management and are therefore increasingly wielded, like a tool or a weapon, by those who have power. The rest of the population is still needed to do specific things. But the citizens are not needed to contribute to the form or direction of the society. The more "advanced" the civilization, the more irrelevant the citizen becomes.
Well written, as usual. This is an interesting piece to follow the excellent conversation with US lieutenant general Mark Hertling on April 7. I am most worried about complacency and apathy -those millions of Canadians (Americans, Europeans, everyone) who don't read well-researched journalism anymore - they aren't deeply worried because they don't get it. That is closer to true despair than what you and Jen are doing here at the line. Your commitment to clear-headed writing, despite the decay of effective reporting institutions, reveals optimism and perseverance beneath your cranky "pessimistic" persona. This kind of vision requires the removal of the bullshit; not recognizing that we're in a hole is irresponsible (our politicians and bureaucrats). Making it worse -(the Alberta separatist faction) digs us deeper. Hertling is right - it will already take a generation to repair this as it is, so let's get to it. Please, fellow Line readers, can we learn from the idiots who voted for Brexit and instead put our energy into thinking about what we want 20 years from now? Let's start making a trajectory to get there.
Combined, there are 121 Ontario seats, mostly around Toronto. Quebec has 78 seats with a focus on Montreal and surrounding areas. Ottawa holds 8 seats. The liberals could actually win a comfortable majority just by sweeping the corridor from Windsor to Quebec city. They have, can and do ignore western Canada. For me, this is why we can't get anything done in this country because of the focus on those numbers in those areas to win re-election. That's Canada. That's how its run. That's why Alberta wants out, I suspect.
That is certainly a large consideration for us in wanting out. But.
The truth is that Alberta is a distinct society from Upper Canada, Lower Canada and the Lower Mainland. We ARE different and we don't want to be in the same country as you.
Then, of course, the way that "you" have run Canada so badly it certainly reinforces our desire to leave.
I've lived all across the country. What makes Alberta distinct is what ... beautiful mountains and the greatest beef of all: Alberta beef. I just don't see a whole hell of a lot of differences between the provinces.
Rather than distinct, a more apt word might be a 'unique' society. Alberta's a economy is historically rooted in the oil and gas sector and agriculture, we know there is non-stop difficulty because of federal regulations.
For me, I think Alberta has always had a love affair with populism. That is unique, IMHO.
Alberta is the number one place people move to for work. My family moved from Sudbury Ontario in 1980 along with boatloads of easterners. I watched as Albertan's lost everything when the NEP hit.
Perhaps the most unique fact about Alberta is the super-concentrated loathing of all things Liberal.
Canada is not over yet. It's getting awful damned close.
Yesterday was Vimy Ridge day in Canada. We owe it to the men who fought and died. We dishonor those men and their sacrifice when we talk about the end of Canada.
One of the things that makes Albertans distinct is the mistaken impression they have that they are distinct. I've teased Jen about this on the podcast before. I'm in Alberta semi-regularly and have many friends there, and I hear ridiculous things like "Man, only in Alberta, right?" after someone relays a story or anecdote that is a pretty universal human experience. I really don't know, and would be fascinated to learn, why Albertans developed the weird tic of looking at good things and assuming they're unique to that place. It's charming, in a way, but ... odd.
I know, right? It's like one of things that makes Torontonians unique is their steadfast belief that Toronto is the center of know known universe. Also Toronto believes the Leafs will one day win a Stanley Cup.
End goal: same deal as Quebec. Time to sit down and renegotiate the terms of Canada. I don't see that Ottawa has any choice but to convene a meeting of the premiers. Before that happens, of course, the government will try all the legal remedies they can possibly come up with.
Alberta will be accused of whining, yet again. The term has become the definitive, derogatory shorthand in 2026 for the most vocal members of the Alberta separation movement. "Temper tantrum" is another term I hear quite often.
I understand you see no point in negotiating but let me ask: what would have to exist for you to want to remain Canadian?
Canada's elites have always cared more about how elites in other countries perceive them rather than how Canadians do. Call it colonial cringe?
If you wanted.sonethinf done previously you'd have it reported on in the NY Times or The Economist. God forbid New York and London think that we are an underachieving Bush League nation let by 3rd rate elites.
But yes, I'm absolutely shocked at how little the Canadian establishment has pushed to support the pro-Canada side in the Alberta referendum. The separatists are such amateurs that it would be easy to thump them, but instead the rest of Canada shrugs and says good riddance. It's to the point that many in Alberta perceive Canada as not caring if Alberta stays or leaves. It will probably take Trump mentioning Alberta to get something done.
If you mean by ‘amateurs’ that it’s a grassroots movement, you’re correct. Greater Canada could care less….they just want Alberta to put their heads down and keep working hard and send that outsized tax dollars to Ottawa and stop making noise.
Canadian elites do not care about Alberta separation right now, because they think it will never happen. All their polls tell them this is not an issue, thus elite arrogance reigns supreme once again. They will only get bothered if the vote starts looking dicey for their stay side as we get closer to the vote in October. By then of course it might very well be too late for them.
What an excellent summary of the a key reason why Canada won't reach it's fullest potential until we own our civic responsibilities and lose our complacency/smugness. Accountability starts with looking in the mirror, and then at your kids/family/friends, especially before you cast your next ballot or talk with an elected representative.
I don't often comment, though (or perhaps because) I generally agree with both Matt and Jen. But I have to say a few words in praise of this piece. It's painful to have to be grateful to people who genuinely don't mean us well, but here we are. Thank you, Donald Trump, and Fox News, and various other generally unhinged right-wing American (I struggle for the correct name to call them) 'people', who, as Matt points out, seem able to exert some force on Canada's people in power. It would be much better if our system was functioning, so that problems responsibly and sensibly identified were acknowledged, and plans were published regarding how they would be addressed, so that the plans themselves could also be subjected to critical analysis. This doesn't seem utopian, but I join Matt in despair that we can't seem to do it in this country as presently constitued.
At the last election, Canadian voters made a clear statement that we don't want accountability for our leaders, as long as we get a change of figurehead every so often.
Of course the media is bribed and largely controlled, but the rot goes deeper.
It may be annoying that our only accountability comes from Trump, but even he is better than the Gods of the Copybook Headings who come next.
Canadians appear to be quite content with the current arrangement where “free” entitlements are financed by resources extracted by an ever shrinking minority that still believes in hard work and initiative and delivered to an ever increasing majority of un-or low productive individuals. And when taxes on the producers get too high and discouraged them, the unborn generations get to pay through borrowing.
It used to be that taking “charity” - a concept alien to a godless (conveniently labeled “secular”) society - was a source of shame and something to avoid and keep as brief as possible. Now over two or three generations thanks to self aggrandizing politicians and civil servants abetted by propaganda it has become a source of pride and part of the national fabric. Not only on an individual basis but in industrial subsidies to intrinsically uneconomic and outdated industries like auto and battery plants, fisheries, etc.
Since the takers outnumber the makers I hold very little hope for any spontaneous change on the political front. But at some stage a “dog in the manger” attitude keeping unused resources like northern minerals and fossil fuels and fresh water will be unsustainable and others will move in. And personally at least with 51st state you won’t have to learn Chinese
and be sent to a forced labor camp if you say bad things about the leader.
You have a province with a communitarian culture that is the tail that wags the dog in Canada. Especially when Liberals are in power.
Yep 4 million old stock pure wool unilingual Quebec French. A 10% tail wagging a 90% dog.
Just to put my hand up as a dissatisfied LPC voter who was ready to leave the party until they changed leaders (ie one of many millions of people just like me who swung the 2025 election)
The reason I did this is because I believe that Carney is so different from Trudeau that he will reinvent the party to be back to kind of a 1990s centrism (Chrétien and Martin style).
I know you disagree, that you think that his book Values proves that he’ll be just as leftist (even if not as ineffectual) as Trudeau. I disagree and I think only time will tell. I’m losing patience with Carney to start to make some hard choices, if we don’t see any movement by end of 2026 I think my vote is up for grabs again.
The fact that you say "up for grabs" proves my point - real accountability is about punishing the guilty, even if you aren't sure the alternative is satisfactory or even better. Were you really confident, as opposed to merely uncertain, that Poilievre would be worse than Carney?
I do give you credit for being more explicit than any of the journalists I am following, who are allergic to giving Carney a deadline of any sort.
What can I say, I’m a natural LPC/PC voter. I like powerful government programmes, I like following rules and generally want my fellow citizens to also follow the rules (and advocate to change the rules if they don’t like them, or face the consequences if they deliberately disobey as a protest).
I’m not a natural Reform voter. Poilievre’s support for the Trucker Convoy was a dealbreaker for me; still is. I get that Reform stands for individual freedoms and combatting government overreach. Those aren’t and never have been my values.
I may have voted for the Poilievre Reform CPC anyway, because I was so angry at Trudeau and his policies — except then I didn’t have to make that choice since 90s Centrist Carney took over the LPC.
Trudeau is out of power, he was punished.
I’ll consider voting CPC again if they show me that the Progressive Conservative centrist party is in the driver’s seat, not the Reform part.
Some of the problems with today's Liberals are that law breaking is totally ok for any reason other than anti-regime political protest and that government programs spend powerfully but deliver weakly. I don't think most Liberal voters actually would say they are ok with either of those, but revealed preference shows otherwise.
Last comment I’ll make in this thread and then I’ll let it go. I think of the Carney Liberals as a separate, different party from the Trudeau Liberals. The Trudeau Liberals had lost my vote. The Carney Liberals have it (for now — I want to see results this year).
That may be a naive, foolish, wrongheaded way to think about it. But it is the truth of how I thought about it when I was voting last year, and I think how millions of others treat the Carney LPC as well.
you are far too slow
Couldn't agree more!
Sadly, "despair" will accomplish absolutely nothing. Trump would be better than what we currently have.
Careful, that sounds like 51st state talk. The boomers will be angry.
Someday, Canada will have the maturity to discuss this option. Not accept it, necessarily, but at least examine it.
I doubt it. Far more likely it will be like covid lockdowns and mandates, where we go from "the status quo is correct and only bad people want to discuss it" to "the new situation is correct and only bad people want to discuss it (but the old, completely different, status quo was somehow also correct)" without ever discussing it.
I'm thinking "little green men appearing on earth" to truy focus the Canadian mind.
😆😆😆
name calling doesn't help Brian. it's the generally unhinged left-wing Canadians that have us in this mess.
I basically agree, but I find it fascinating how the electorate can put people in office who make a huge mess. Obviously they don't think that will be the effect of their vote. They think they're going to elect someone who will make things better. Understanding what is wrong with people's thinking is hard sometimes, but worthwhile. Why did the US elect Trump twice? Why did Canadians elect Trudeau 3 times?
Name calling lowers blood pressure. Correct on the left wingnuts.
I’m not trolling but the way to create more accountability in Canada would be to unite with the US. Canadians already pay more attention to Trump than their own politicians. Voters need a proper feedback loop that one country one media environment would provide. Dont hate me!
Canada was created from fear of the Americans. At least we’re consistent!
The comment that Canada was created as part of a fear of America is spot on if anyone cares to check our history during/after their Revolution (attacking Canada twice), because of the 1812 War and because of all the attacks by Fenians after their Civil War and even some incursions by “others” before that war. Plus all sorts of threats up until about WWI.
We love to imitate them, we watch their media and movies, we travel there to get out of the cold, we love to hate them too when they act like — Americans of a certain type — a type which is in charge down there right now.
So jumping to action when they “really” threaten us is quite understandable — but yes — doing the right thing (particular on our egregiously treated defence portfolio) should not depend on the Yanks’ impatience.
We need to grow up and do so very quickly.
A little less emotion and a little more focus on substance.
I see the creation of British North America in a different light. The Loyalists who fled North - or South particularly if they had slaves - were avoiding combat in the hopes that the British Redcoats would kill off the Patriots so they - the Loyalists- wouldn’t have to do anything. A Canadian military tradition that continues to this day. 🙄.
When the Patriots won the some of the loyalists resettled while others petitioned to return to England or the Southern colonies. Then 80 years or so later the Brits who were tired of the whole mess and getting out of the empire business continued with their inimitable practice of combining tribes who were mortal enemies( ie Upper Canada and Lower Canada (Quebec) into tidy “country” packages. The Middle East and India/Pakistan/Bangladesh being other examples.
John, the UELs who arrived in Canada had, as lineal ideological/theological descendants the Family Compact of Upper and Lower Canada. The ideological/theological descendants of the Family Compact are the Laurentian Elite of today. And they are all, every damned one of them rabidly anti-American.
So, as is said, history doesn't repeat but it sure does rhyme.
Awesome expression! Yes the family compact still rules today AFAIK. They are the ones controlling who gets to run as candidates in elections regardless of Party - like the Lords in England used to do. (Amazing how emigrants always seem to preserve the rules of the country they left even after their original country has moved on.) The Quebec French equivalent are the seigneurs who controlled the land in Lower Canada (New France).
... and now we are self-screwing ourselves out of existence for the same reason.
Absolutely.
Except that all the Loyalists remained where they were until after the war and then they moved to four areas of what are now Cdn provinces. Thousands of them were in Loyalist regiments of which there were many. My family stemmed from Germany in 1710 to New York Colony and were loyal to King George III. Then departed as some of latecomers to Canada closer to 1790. BTW until the monarchs of France and Spain helped the rebels, the latter were not winning. Check the history.
I did write that some stayed in the remaining northern British colonies but others went back to Britain or Jamaica Bermuda etc. I didn’t do a count of many stayed in the Maritimes colonies vs went to upper Canada etc doesn’t matter or who helped (Indian tribes also fought on both sides) the Patriots did win in the end. My ancestors were part of the enslaved Lower Canada French (overseen by the Catholic Church) who had no dog in the fight.
Except at the Battle of Chateuguay many French Cdns fought with the British regulars against the Yanks. As well, even in 1775 when Montreal and Quebec were attacked by Montgomery and Benedict Arnold, local residents also helped the British troops in the garrison
Yes your account agrees with Canadian history texts. The key thing is they fought WITH (“helped”) the British regulars. Did the “King’s shllling”( conscription) have something to do with it? From the viewpoint of a people enslaved for all practical purposes, I see no reason to support either side except for the secret enjoyment of seeing Anglos killing each other (how do you spell “schadenfreude”?).
I forgot that there was an established Anglo class (Brits, Scots,Irish) who were the dominant class and so did have something to lose. I mistakenly assumed they were all French my bad.
Well eventually you might get your way. If AB separates then so will Quebec. Or vice vice versa.
BTW. Having studied Cdn history in detail and having lived in Quebec and having worked with many Francophones for about 50 years and having several Francophones relatives — I would add that the Québecois left behind after the “conquest” were the peasant and farmer class. Most of the gentry and many of the trades folks packed up and left to return to a France most had never seen. Maybe they participated in the Revolution in 1789.
Yep you’re right history mentions the middle and upper class leaving New France after the conquest. The middle class that moved in were the Scots and English. plus the Catholic Church which as I recall from my experience as a child of 8 to 16 seemed to have been mainly governed by the doctrines of the Spanish Inquisition. I had a French last name offset by an Anglo culture which made me a mul@@to trusted by no one in either Canada or Quebec.
On the other hand, it was a far more rational fear in 1867 than it is now.
Don't blame me, I voted Conservative and I also voted for Alberta Separation... Now Carney is close to a majority without even winning an election. You cannot make this up. The Gov has bought the MSM and there is no 4th Estate, save the Line, Juno, The Hub and at times, the Rebel. Jettison the CBC from the news business, NOW, and cut the papers off of the taxpayer teet.
Kevin, you haven't voted for separation yet: you can only do that in October.
What you might have done is to sign the petition. If you haven't found a petition signature collection point, do it really, really soon. If, by saying that you have signed, you mean that you signed online to support the Alberta Prosperity Project, that is not the petition: get out and actually sign the thing!
If you want to jettison all those that you list, then make good and sure that you vote in October.
Canada can still be saved. But it’s going to have to get worse before it gets better.
I have often said that an invasion or seizure of Canadian land by any hostile power (most likely to happen in the Arctic) would almost be a blessing in disguise because it would be a sudden wake up call to everything.
The alternative is a steady grinding-down of living standards and stability, a boiled frog scenario where nobody’s personal situation is at any point so bad that they’re willing to take to the streets to demand change, but together we just sink and sink and sink.
We’re caught in a number of transitional loss traps — four of the largest are dairy supply management, inefficient public sector professional unions at the working level, the “backyarded” property owners who don’t want to see their properties lose value and so will forsake all young people who will never get in, and our telco and bank oligopolies.
I think only a shock to the system can break a polity out of transitional loss traps. Everyone has to feel scared enough to overcome the resistance of those who lose in a change scenario. Like, just to pick on the dairy farmers again — they run sympathetic ads and people don’t have the fortitude to ignore them. We have to be scared enough to be willing to hurt sympathetic dairy farmers. (Again, sorry dairy farmers, it’s not just you, but it’s the easiest example.)
I would love to see Danielle Smith stand up and quote Tolkien.
I should like to save the Shire, if I could - though there have been times when I thought the inhabitants too stupid and dull for words, and have felt that an earthquake or an invasion of dragons might be good for them.
You forgot about the repressive policies regarding the energy industry and mining industry. Carney hasn’t improved anything since Trudeau.
The country will fracture along regional lines before any of that happens. It is almost inevitable at this point.
I agree whole heartedly and truly believe the core values of people in the West is so different from the ROC that some form of division needs to occur. I believe the Separatist movement in AB would be satisfied with a structure that contained two equal entities made up of East & West (divide Ontario into two with the western half becoming part of the WEST. The provinces could keep their current structure within the two entities if they wanted.
NO! We will not be satisfied with such a faux arrangement.
That would be very sad. I have lived/worked/visited every province and Territory that makes up Canada and it is a wonderous thing. I wish more people could see that.
Nope, cannot be saved.
We are too stupid and too willing to trust anyone who promises "free" stuff that is not at all free, not even the words. Why are the words not free? Those words are what cause people to vote for the rascals that are in power and who will lead Canada to it's ruin.
Matt Gurney has described a cardinal fatal problem causing the destruction of Canada. And so described one of the several cardinal reasons for Alberta separatism.
Thank you sir for honesty and clarity of thought.
Another floor crosser to "Liberals" today.
"RIP Canadian democracy: Liberals get their majority as another Tory defects."
Somewhere on the internet I saw a headline:
"Canadians get the first prize for being the stupidest electorate on the planet."
I really, really want to know what those spineless, opportunistic scavengers get for crossing over to the LPC?
There is no way in hell 5 of them did it out of the goodness of their hearts.
A sac of CCP money.
Maybe conservatives should look in the mirror instead of finger pointing? The caucus is losing confidence in Pierre and he keeps himself fairly isolated most other than the inner circle . With Carney being far more moderate than Trudeau , this is not a surprise . Unfortunately, instead of changing , the Cons are finger pointing angry and their supporters are flooding comments sections with doom and gloom . That won’t win a national government . You are all acting like quitters instead. I vote conservative and it is frustrating me that the core won’t admit they need to completely revamp .
Events like this is just adding extra fuel to the Alberta independence fire. Don't they care about the greater effects to the country seeing our votes as being next to useless? Or, they think that no matter what happens in a independence vote, that Alberta will be brought to heel and put back in it's place? Either way, it's incredibly callous and dangerous for the continued health of the nation and it's institutions. I hope Carney's majority government is worth all the national arson that the Liberals are committing right now.
Realistic and thus a correct take. My bet is on the 3-rd sentence. They are a 6-year-old f##kking around with an unprotected live electrical outlet.
Re the last sentence, my take is that conman Carney's majority government is the end of Canada.
I do not see any way in which Canada's institutions, weakened, fouled up and corrupted by multi-year "Liberal" abuse, will survive what the Fraud Carney is doing to Canada.
For Liberals, acquiring power no matter the cost is its own justification. I will have hope for country if Carney, once he has his vaunted majority, cancels the back-door climate regulations, the gun-grab, the tanker ban and allows a new pipeline to go through. Sadly, I can’t see any of those things happening. It’s now far more likely that Alberta will achieve independence before any key past Liberal planks get turfed.
Carney is a Laurentian corruptocrat and will not cancel anything that you listed. Laurentian corruptocrats constant goal is to perpetually strangle Alberta, they wrote the constitution that way.
Wonderful piece. Canada, home of the mediocre, comfortable, the it’s good enough status quo that suits and benefits our well paid, pensioned leadership class just fine. Sadly, I dont think even the threat of Donald Trump could entice our governments to take on the powerful forces ( the Medical establishment, hospitals and doctors) that are preventing reforms in how our ERs, our GPs perform. And our provincial premiers arent frightened enough by the Orange Madman to knock down those bad interprovincial trade barriers. O Canada…
I'm not sure Trump cares about our social safety net. He wants us to do our share to secure the Arctic from the Russians and Chinese. With his 51st state talk, he's telling us to get our house in order or the US will have to do it for us. It's too great a security risk to their interests. I don't think Trump gives a crap about us, honestly.
Agreed, Paul.
Trump doesn’t care a whit for Canada and why should he. He will care if we allow China to take over our rare earth minerals, our oil fields, our mines and our land…Carney is allowing this and encouraging this. I fear for the future of Canada. I’m Albertan and I’m voting for separation.
See my comment. These are Transitional Loss Traps, a well known phenomenon by which any change that benefits the broader society causes concentrated harm to those incumbent groups, so they then muster a fierce PR and political campaign to oppose the change. The classic Canadian example is dairy supply management.
Usually only an outside force, a shock to the system, can break these, once the regular population feels so much pressure or fear that they’re willing to risk the backlash (eg sympathetic ads showing family dairy farms getting crushed by American multinationals).
A classic example of a Transitional Loss Trap: taxi medallions. Medallion owners had so much invested in them that the supply would never change and taxi quality was crap, etc. because no politician wanted to take on the medallion owners or lose their bribes/donations.
What solved it? An outside alien-invasion level event: Uber.
I don’t think the current version of Trump (he of the 🌮 bloviating) is enough to break Canada out of our (many) Transitional Loss Traps we’re in right now. Things are going to have to get worse.
Politicians, Bureaucrats, Journalists: Stop being Conservative or Liberal or NDP or Bloc. Be honest, have morals, show empathy, value integrity. Just be a good person.
Nice job, Matt. But your piece stops short of 100% accuracy. We don't really fear "the terror of the guy running the country next door". Complacent Canadians fear, right down to their poopy pants, ANY guy with initiative and determination for change.
Or any woman- like Danielle Smith…
Oops. Forgot "correctness". Too true.
Speaking of accountability, how about our Prime Minister not actually encouraging conflict of interest by explaining it’s a great thing for political spouses to have corporate jobs that benefit from government connections.
Sad, scary, and unfortunately all true. I would suggest that a less government whipped media would be a first step to fixing some of the accountability issues but alas money rules.
Money and lies and deceptions.
Good article. You and Jen have said before that Canada had stopped being a serious country years ago. The Liberals are a cos-play government. Carney can deliver a decent speech at Davos, but things still suck in this country.
That was not a decent speech. That was a bafllegab bs deception aimed at saps. Pay attention to how Carney is now steering the country into penury and CCP servitude.
Because the managerial élites are now so large and have such a dominant effect on our educational system, we are actually teaching most people to manage, not to think. Not only do we not reward thought, we punish it as unprofessional. Our élite is primarily and increasingly managerial. A managerial élite manages. A crisis, unfortunately, requires thought. Thought is not a management function.
The conclusion drawn by … most of our élites … is that the population constitutes a deep and dangerous well of ignorance and irrationality; if our civilization is in crisis, the fault must lie with the populace, which is not rising to the inescapable challenges. And yet civilizations do not collapse because the citizenry are corrupt or lazy or anti-intellectual. These people do not have the power and influence to either lead or destroy. Civilizations collapse when those who have power fail to do their jobs.
Societies grow into systems. The systems require management and are therefore increasingly wielded, like a tool or a weapon, by those who have power. The rest of the population is still needed to do specific things. But the citizens are not needed to contribute to the form or direction of the society. The more "advanced" the civilization, the more irrelevant the citizen becomes.
― John Ralston Saul
EXACTLY!!!!!
Well written, as usual. This is an interesting piece to follow the excellent conversation with US lieutenant general Mark Hertling on April 7. I am most worried about complacency and apathy -those millions of Canadians (Americans, Europeans, everyone) who don't read well-researched journalism anymore - they aren't deeply worried because they don't get it. That is closer to true despair than what you and Jen are doing here at the line. Your commitment to clear-headed writing, despite the decay of effective reporting institutions, reveals optimism and perseverance beneath your cranky "pessimistic" persona. This kind of vision requires the removal of the bullshit; not recognizing that we're in a hole is irresponsible (our politicians and bureaucrats). Making it worse -(the Alberta separatist faction) digs us deeper. Hertling is right - it will already take a generation to repair this as it is, so let's get to it. Please, fellow Line readers, can we learn from the idiots who voted for Brexit and instead put our energy into thinking about what we want 20 years from now? Let's start making a trajectory to get there.
Combined, there are 121 Ontario seats, mostly around Toronto. Quebec has 78 seats with a focus on Montreal and surrounding areas. Ottawa holds 8 seats. The liberals could actually win a comfortable majority just by sweeping the corridor from Windsor to Quebec city. They have, can and do ignore western Canada. For me, this is why we can't get anything done in this country because of the focus on those numbers in those areas to win re-election. That's Canada. That's how its run. That's why Alberta wants out, I suspect.
That is certainly a large consideration for us in wanting out. But.
The truth is that Alberta is a distinct society from Upper Canada, Lower Canada and the Lower Mainland. We ARE different and we don't want to be in the same country as you.
Then, of course, the way that "you" have run Canada so badly it certainly reinforces our desire to leave.
I've lived all across the country. What makes Alberta distinct is what ... beautiful mountains and the greatest beef of all: Alberta beef. I just don't see a whole hell of a lot of differences between the provinces.
Rather than distinct, a more apt word might be a 'unique' society. Alberta's a economy is historically rooted in the oil and gas sector and agriculture, we know there is non-stop difficulty because of federal regulations.
For me, I think Alberta has always had a love affair with populism. That is unique, IMHO.
Alberta is the number one place people move to for work. My family moved from Sudbury Ontario in 1980 along with boatloads of easterners. I watched as Albertan's lost everything when the NEP hit.
Perhaps the most unique fact about Alberta is the super-concentrated loathing of all things Liberal.
Canada is not over yet. It's getting awful damned close.
Yesterday was Vimy Ridge day in Canada. We owe it to the men who fought and died. We dishonor those men and their sacrifice when we talk about the end of Canada.
Negotiation is the only way forward, I think.
One of the things that makes Albertans distinct is the mistaken impression they have that they are distinct. I've teased Jen about this on the podcast before. I'm in Alberta semi-regularly and have many friends there, and I hear ridiculous things like "Man, only in Alberta, right?" after someone relays a story or anecdote that is a pretty universal human experience. I really don't know, and would be fascinated to learn, why Albertans developed the weird tic of looking at good things and assuming they're unique to that place. It's charming, in a way, but ... odd.
I know, right? It's like one of things that makes Torontonians unique is their steadfast belief that Toronto is the center of know known universe. Also Toronto believes the Leafs will one day win a Stanley Cup.
We all know it's really New York.
"Negotiation is the only way forward, I think." Negotiation with what end goal?
Constitutional change? We all know that is absolutely impossible in Canada.
Legislative change? That would simply allow a future government to again change things to the way that they are now.
Judicial change? I simply cannot fathom how judicial change could occur without constitutional change and legislative change.
Again, negotiation with what end goal?
End goal: same deal as Quebec. Time to sit down and renegotiate the terms of Canada. I don't see that Ottawa has any choice but to convene a meeting of the premiers. Before that happens, of course, the government will try all the legal remedies they can possibly come up with.
Alberta will be accused of whining, yet again. The term has become the definitive, derogatory shorthand in 2026 for the most vocal members of the Alberta separation movement. "Temper tantrum" is another term I hear quite often.
I understand you see no point in negotiating but let me ask: what would have to exist for you to want to remain Canadian?
Canada's elites have always cared more about how elites in other countries perceive them rather than how Canadians do. Call it colonial cringe?
If you wanted.sonethinf done previously you'd have it reported on in the NY Times or The Economist. God forbid New York and London think that we are an underachieving Bush League nation let by 3rd rate elites.
But yes, I'm absolutely shocked at how little the Canadian establishment has pushed to support the pro-Canada side in the Alberta referendum. The separatists are such amateurs that it would be easy to thump them, but instead the rest of Canada shrugs and says good riddance. It's to the point that many in Alberta perceive Canada as not caring if Alberta stays or leaves. It will probably take Trump mentioning Alberta to get something done.
If you mean by ‘amateurs’ that it’s a grassroots movement, you’re correct. Greater Canada could care less….they just want Alberta to put their heads down and keep working hard and send that outsized tax dollars to Ottawa and stop making noise.
Grassroots too often means "half assed" in the end.
Both sides need to professionalise.
You see more professionalism in a US county bond issue plebiscite.
That's what folks are afraid of. Same happened with Brexit and even the first Trump win.
Canadian elites do not care about Alberta separation right now, because they think it will never happen. All their polls tell them this is not an issue, thus elite arrogance reigns supreme once again. They will only get bothered if the vote starts looking dicey for their stay side as we get closer to the vote in October. By then of course it might very well be too late for them.
What an excellent summary of the a key reason why Canada won't reach it's fullest potential until we own our civic responsibilities and lose our complacency/smugness. Accountability starts with looking in the mirror, and then at your kids/family/friends, especially before you cast your next ballot or talk with an elected representative.