Also, people in Canada's Jewish community, a small subset of people, but over-represented in entrepreneurial pursuits, are not comfortable in Canada and are actively working on PlanBs...
Not according to Matt's research: "They confirmed what I more or less suspected: it wasn’t possible to prove or disprove my hunch. There just isn’t any metric that neatly captures the scenario I think is happening." 1500 words on a subject that doesn't exist.
I was just thinking about the bias - usually towards the right - across much of substack. Much is due I think to not seeing or reading or hearing counterpoint to the day's typical news/narrative stories or articles because there is so little of it of good quality that is available. I see substack more as an editorial section raising issues and concerns in greater depth than a news feed that have little exposure through other sources of mass and legacy media.
Matt's article here is just one such piece where he freely admits he doesn't have access to data that "neatly captures" this thesis about the increasing scope of those leaving Canada other than accumulating anecdotes. But isn't this exactly the problem we find in all kinds of growing chasms between people: like with political parties, and their growing distance (if not abandonment of) founding principles, how does one neatly capture the percentage of those who feel very strongly (strong enough to want to take drastic action) that it's not that they want to leave Canada but that Canada and its promise has left them?
I am curious WHY such a metric does not exist...is is because it has never been necessary until now and now the government would have to admit they are failing if they created one???? Canada is a high tax jurisdiction, it isnt hard to see why people with lots of money would want out... That is in fact one of the talking points Alberta separatists are using, I dont believe it but it's there!
I don't think there's anything nefarious or willfully blind here. I just think what I'm asking about is genuinely hard to capture outside of a highly detailed poll or a census.
My hunch is that The Liberals, or somebody must have some interesting but confidential data on this, otherwise that ridiculous notion of charging an "exit tax" at the convention would never have surfaced. Somebody is clearly worried about a generational brain drain in Canada....just my thoughts...
We are unique among G7 nations, in that we are the ONLY G7 nation who do not track all exits through our border.
....this is why "we don't know" how many International Students are still in our country, and why/how we lost track of so many people who had applied for refugee status.
We are literally drowning in federal bureaucrats, but they don't seem to accomplish much of value...
"Canada is a high tax jurisdiction." By the standards of the US. But, per OECD data, we're about the same as the UK, New Zealand, Japan and Israel, slightly higher than Portugal and Australia. Worth looking at... these are the 2025 numbers. https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-canada.pdf
1000000% this is happening. And it’s going to beget a tidal wave of young people doing it. Thanks to the “elbows up” crowd and 11 years of mismanagement, zero accountability and a government bereft of political courage and leadership. *sigh*
Those are a lot of current rightwing buzzwords that I keep hearing from the "Canada is broken" Poilievre stans with no substance behind them.
"elbows up crowd" - Nobody says that anymore. It was a campaign slogan used a few times. Get the hell over it.
11 years of mismanagement - I won't argue with this for much of the Trudeau era, but if you think Carney is governing the same way, you are simply being partisan over objective. This is what drove me out of the CPC.
zero accountability - what government has ever been made truly accountable? welcome to the world
bereft of political courage and leadership - to do what exactly? what do you want them to be courageous to do? Why do you think there is no leadership?
Figure yourselves out, Conservatives. Until you do, you'll continue to lose and then yell about it on Facebook "community" groups.
You understand that this kind of dismissive "um actually Canada is great, nothing needs to change and you're a dumbass for wanting that" which you are saying, writ large is the reason more Canadians are just giving up on the possibility of change and leaving.
"Elbows up" was a gallingly stupid slogan and movement. It deserves to join "woke" as a term only used in derision.
Not what Red Letters said. Nor is Elbows Up a stupid slogan. Look at Howard Lutnick, red in the face that Canadian provinces are not importing US booze. We lifted an elbow... albeit from the bar top. The Americans noticed. That's not a slogan. If someone has the wherewithal to live elsewhere they should live their best life. But the rest of us, anyone who wants to live in a nation where there is a separation of church and state, where the rule of law is at least a topic of concern, where people are sometimes considered citizens before they are considered consumers, I would suggest the United States is probably not ideal. Which means where? The social democratic nations of Europe???
Using a government monopoly to forcefully remove a narrow category of consumer choice from your own citizens in order to hopefully mildly anger your trading partner ahead of negotiations isn't the flex you think it is.
Be sure to tell that to the Secretary of Commerce. And you misremember: Doug kicked California wine and Kentucky bourbon out of the Liqbo right away. It was not, as you suggest, a pre-negotiation tactic.
Ugh, I'm so tired of people getting a big stiff rubbery one over this kind of petty and meaningless tactic to 'stick it to the Americans'. We continue to stock every other kind of US product.
I made a point to load up on US bourbon when I was in Alberta just out of pure contrarian spite.
Sorry, Red Letters! I didn't mean to suggest that's what you said. I'm just saying that the previous poster did not understand you. I apologize for any confusion.
Elbows up is currently in liberal use among commenters on this Substack. It’s a slapstick joke akin to Trump’s 51st state. Like lots of jokes, it’s funny the first time and insulting after the third time…
Carney has channeled the insult Canadians feel from Trump’s dismissive insults incredibly well. I wouldn’t have thought he had that talent. But- if it was unproductive for Trump, it’s self destructive for Canada. There’s a reason mom didn’t accept “but he said it first “
Carney is effectively the Viktor Orban of the north. Orban used parochial jealousy of Brussels and elbows up to rule for 16 years. But Brussels structure allows an Orban to persevere because it’s a quintessentially Northern European institution that expects members to play fair. US-Canada is different. And Trump is different…
Trump is a boor. But he’s running the US for 30+ months. And Trump is far more willing to escalate tit for tat against Canada in dirty nasty retaliation. And Trump runs an economy 10x bigger. Canada makes the NAFTA/USMCA better but it’s not essential. And in a war of nastiness, Trump can exclude Canada. It’s not reciprocal.
US/Canada is a marriage in need of a good therapist. America has legit grievances too. But neither side can afford a divorce- and divorce won’t solve the underlying challenges.
The "elbows up crowd" are those who over attribute Canada's challenges to Trump. Poor productivity, low economic growth, unaffordable housing and regulatory gridlock all existed before November 2024.
Doug, nobody is villifying America. Donald Trump told us to our faces we're a bunch of losers. If you're OK with that, why are you even reading a Canadian Substack?
Trump is a showman. Too many people use his statements to justify their pre-existing biases. Canada's future is with the US. That is an undeniable fact due to geography and it being the largest and most innovative economy.
I follow interesting Substacks. The nationality of said Substacks is irrelevant.
I see the psyop is still working. Personally I hope it continues for both me and my more well off clients. Not so great for the country as a whole though.
Canadians think psyops are conspiracy theories and propaganda is something that happens in other places and that they would easily detect if it was used on them. Which makes them especially vulnerable to manipulation as long as it wears a smile and has "nice" rhetoric.
Red Letters, this subject isn't about partisan politics. It's about the direction of Canada as a state either getting better or getting worse. The host of metrics that fall into this category might be cause for slightly more reflection when those under the age of 35 rank Canada around 70th in satisfaction (compared with other national rates of satisfaction) while the older generation places it in the top 20. Both are regularly falling lower in yearly polling.
So two things.
The first is that this generational discrepancy is the kind of 'inequity' that offers some insight into Matt's thesis about the scope and extent of Canadians giving up on the country: are things getting better or worse and for whom (if those under 35 ranked Canada in the top 5 or 10, for example, would you feel more or less confident in the future of the country? I think the answer is pretty obvious.).
The second is the direction of the trend. From regular appearances in the top 3 in the 90s, we are constantly trending downwards regardless of which party holds what power. The problems are not political per se that create such trends over the course of only their tenure; the problems are therefore systemic. Something is broken on a national scale. That means the solutions are not political per se (elect a different party - filled with potential but perfectly justifiable individual floor crossers, I guess - and the sinking ship of state will suddenly gain buoyancy); the solutions have to be equivalently systemic, equivalently non partisan.
Are we seeing any attempts whatsoever (other than political separation) for systemic changes to address the litany of country wide problems that in total fuel such a drastic and unequal decline? Or should we just keep on blaming someone else - a national pastime more common today than hockey and weather commentary combined - and switch political horses en masse... all of which are statistically galloping in exactly the wrong direction?
I am curious about how you think Carney is doing any better, same team, same bad policies. So far we have not actually got one dime in new trade on shore, not one infrastructure project approved let alone shovels in the ground. We have more travel, more debt and lots of pretty words that amount to nothing. This is why people are leaving canada, or making plan Bs to leave if it gets worse.
Except for the nagging problem that neither you, nor the author of the piece that got this discussion started, have any proof to support your hunch that people are leaving.
That's hilarious. Ditch your loser leader and rhetoric like this and you'll be surprised how quickly your electoral fortunes will change. I've voted CPC far more than I haven't voted for them but you guys have lost a lot of us.
Sure. I like that the consumer carbon tax is gone, the emphasis on energy expansion and infrastructure, increased defense spending, public service restructuring (for lack of a better word), the emphasis on establishing new trade partners, and desire to make it a big tent (maybe too big a tent?). There is lots to like and there is still lots not to like. It's politics, not tribal warfare.
I like that the consumer carbon tax was eliminated and the military are getting better pay. Not sure what to think of the Liberal party now including an anti-vax pro-lifer.
The other things are all aspirational, aren't they?
You obviously follow the bought media and never look at stats. What economic stats are actually going in a positive direction under our economic genius PM?
Safe havens, it seems to me, are in short supply. In the Western World most governments are seriously in debt and continue to rack up serious deficits. There is no possible way, apparently, to raise taxes to pay the bills or no possible way, apparently, to cut spending on programmes for the people.
This cannot go on.
The US situation is emblematic of the problem - its deficits are epic (as are ours in my opinion) and their inability to do ANYTHING is a concern. The US can print money as a reserve currency to get out of it at the cost of INFLATION but that doesn't seem to be addressing the problem, just postponing the day.
Geopolitics are the worst in my lifetime of lo these many decades. The Cold War era was potentially existential in terms of threat in the days of my youth but the adults running the system kept a lid on it and we all carried on. Today looks increasingly like 1914 or 1939. Not a happy thought, particularly considering the characters of today's adults.
All to say, one can certainly move assets and one's self to more benign locations weatherwise but all the other problems exist basically everywhere to one extent or another. Exhibit A: UAE. Its security assumptions are in tatters and I wonder as to the long term for what was a pretty attractive bolt hole.
It might indeed be the better choice to tighten one's belt and see what one can do to improve things in our little slice of paradise.
There is no question it is happening for economic reasons. The new fly in the ointment is UNDRIP and DRIPA in BC. When governments allow private property to come under attack by the courts (or in some cases encouraged it) then people start to consider leaving. UNDRIP is destroying another leg of our societal chair. Productivity and the ability to earn a living in business was already gone. The entire chair is now falling over. People are bailing. It is time for radical surgery but I see no urgency in the Carney government.
The partially moved out is probably impossible to catch fully. However, in about 15 months it will be possible to catch the fully moved out.
We have a census coming up in June. Stats Can will begin to report out about a year later. Here's what can be done with the data:
Take population numbers by age for the 2026 census.
Strip out the ones who report arriving in the previous five years.
Then compare the numbers of people with the numbers that should be in each age range based on the numbers five years younger in 2021. This will have to be adjusted a bit for deaths, this can be calculated pretty precisely from vital statistics data.
This will leave us - for every age range - a good estimate of that the population numbers "should be" and "what they are." The difference will be the number of people who have left.
It will be a bit more work, but the same methodology can be used to calculate by educational attainment and occupation.
"...With the exception of when the pandemic first hit, exits don’t surpass starts. That hasn’t happened in 40 years." And who was the Prime Minister 40 years ago? That's right. Two of Canada's most economically illiterate Canadians.
How is it that 50 years after the last "oil shock" Canada still does not have energy independence? We've had 2 and a half generations to get it right and we failed. Our priority has been to keep control of the country (and it's immense natural wealth) in the hands of a select few. We've put profit ahead of all else. We told China in 1989 that we really don't care about human rights as long as we can profit financially and China has played along and now we are supplicants to China's whims and wishes...
Exactly. Thank you. Where are all the comments about the US chains & even Tim Horton's not being Canadian anymore? Yoo hoo. Anyone tried to find anything other than Asian restaurants in Vancouver? But we sold out a very very long time ago - I still go to PetroCan out of nostalgia... 😢
Those with means who are managing significant assets in Canada do that through hard work, sharp financial acumen and generous faith in accounting and legal advice.
They most likely are also looking at the tea leaves and hedging on what the governance in Canada will be going forward and what the implications are for government to be able to manage the huge debt millstone that all levels of government are carrying.
In other words, there is no government anywhere in Canada that is reigning in spending, trimming the public service or launching any significant look at programming to eliminate duplication or redundancy.
On the current trajectory, the only option will be to target large financial assets for new revenue streams. Such as annual taxing on principal dwellings. Or pension fund raids to finance dubious investments. Or wealth taxes.
If I had millions of dollars and watching our three levels of government blundering their way into a financial crisis, I would be quietly hedging my money elsewhere too.
A Civil engineer colleague of mine in his early to mid 30s left a highly stable job in Toronto to move to LA last year with his wife. He got a far better paying job and a much better house to live in Orange county. That's my own anecdote for you.
Where Brookfield does the best tax avoidance work is in Bermuda. They figured out a way to get around the income trust scam the Tories got rid of after the Liberals let it get out of hand.
I’m sure many Canadian politicians have already covered themselves with this approach however can’t prove.
Canada is in a unprecedented decline due to Liberal mismanagement over the last decade with wealth redistribution, staggering taxes, economy totally dependent on real estate, governments regulating everything and not getting out of the way of big and small businesses, extremely poor health care and infrastructure was allowed deteriorate.
Provincial government played along and did not improve health care or education.
Everything was DEI and woke! Not focusing on the best people to make Canada a great country.
The issue also very much exists among immigrants: "Highly educated and highly skilled immigrants leave at twice the rate of those with less education and lower skills. Doctorate holders are nearly twice as likely to leave as those with a bachelor’s degree. And the occupations with the greatest labour needs face the weakest retention: ICT (information, communications, technology) professionals, engineers, business and finance managers, and architecture managers show the highest departure rates. Canada is losing people with the skills and experience it most needs to keep."
Another problem with people leaving is that subscriptions to podcasts will be lost, charities will lose money, and folks who rely on their families will still get the financial support, but not the emotional support and the security that comes with family close by.
It is a solution for people who expect more from their government and the tax money that government takes.
Follow the money Matt. Our Prime Minister has a great vision for Canada in a New World Order but he’s not risking his personal fortune on it. 91% of his personal investments are in the United States. .5% invested in Canada. He’s a smart money man. We’re following his lead.
This is interesting, and well worth exploring more extensively. In VC land, "exits" are a good thing. In many technology-based industries, that usually means a sale to or merger with a US (or European) based company. We do not have enough large "anchor" companies to support a vibrant innovative economy and if we continue to define "success" as selling to the highest bidder, we will never develop them. We do not have enough venture capital to roll the proceeds of these exits back into the innovation economy. Some of the disincentives are deeply systemic (IP related; regulatory; procurement and tax policies) and some are - alas - deeply psychological (risk aversion; adulation of US models; small scale thinking; excessive reliance on government handouts.) For governments, it is easier to invest in "incubators" and basic research than to institute deep reforms in e.g. procurement, reform of the tax system, or regulatory reform.
“ The analysis estimates that a substantial share of Canadians who would rank among top earners in Canada have emigrated to the United States—roughly 40 percent of potential top 1 percent earners and 30 to 50 percent of the next nine percentiles. Canadian-born individuals in the United States are more educated than native-born Americans, earn substantially more, and cluster disproportionately in top income deciles.
Canada is effectively exporting its inequality to the U.S. The brain drain simultaneously lowers our average income while raising American income, accounting for a significant share of the persistent GDP gap.”
For me, we have been losing people for years - usually economic conditions; but the brain drain has been a thing many times in Canada.
But then there's now. Vile poisonous antisemitism has infected every thread of our society since October 7, 2023. It has infected our institutions, the academe, labour unions, K-12 education, public health and medicine, media and more. It has been allowed to threaten people, assault people, intimidate fellow citizens who have zero to do with the war in Gaza. Synagogues have been firebombed and antisemitic 'protesters' marched through Jewish neighborhoods.
We. Have. Been. Here. Before.
This has been allowed to fester. Inaction from the very institutions that are built to protect jews delivers coffee to the protestors. Jews are absolutely leaving Canada. Fellow citizens of ours who just want to live as free from fear as you or me.
It’s happening. Has been for several years. It’s very real.
Also, people in Canada's Jewish community, a small subset of people, but over-represented in entrepreneurial pursuits, are not comfortable in Canada and are actively working on PlanBs...
Not according to Matt's research: "They confirmed what I more or less suspected: it wasn’t possible to prove or disprove my hunch. There just isn’t any metric that neatly captures the scenario I think is happening." 1500 words on a subject that doesn't exist.
"Neatly captures" is not synonymous with "a subject that doesn't exist."
Such is the tension between sub stack and traditional journalism. No assignment editor would’ve let that piece in print.
I was just thinking about the bias - usually towards the right - across much of substack. Much is due I think to not seeing or reading or hearing counterpoint to the day's typical news/narrative stories or articles because there is so little of it of good quality that is available. I see substack more as an editorial section raising issues and concerns in greater depth than a news feed that have little exposure through other sources of mass and legacy media.
Matt's article here is just one such piece where he freely admits he doesn't have access to data that "neatly captures" this thesis about the increasing scope of those leaving Canada other than accumulating anecdotes. But isn't this exactly the problem we find in all kinds of growing chasms between people: like with political parties, and their growing distance (if not abandonment of) founding principles, how does one neatly capture the percentage of those who feel very strongly (strong enough to want to take drastic action) that it's not that they want to leave Canada but that Canada and its promise has left them?
I am curious WHY such a metric does not exist...is is because it has never been necessary until now and now the government would have to admit they are failing if they created one???? Canada is a high tax jurisdiction, it isnt hard to see why people with lots of money would want out... That is in fact one of the talking points Alberta separatists are using, I dont believe it but it's there!
I don't think there's anything nefarious or willfully blind here. I just think what I'm asking about is genuinely hard to capture outside of a highly detailed poll or a census.
My hunch is that The Liberals, or somebody must have some interesting but confidential data on this, otherwise that ridiculous notion of charging an "exit tax" at the convention would never have surfaced. Somebody is clearly worried about a generational brain drain in Canada....just my thoughts...
We are unique among G7 nations, in that we are the ONLY G7 nation who do not track all exits through our border.
....this is why "we don't know" how many International Students are still in our country, and why/how we lost track of so many people who had applied for refugee status.
We are literally drowning in federal bureaucrats, but they don't seem to accomplish much of value...
"Canada is a high tax jurisdiction." By the standards of the US. But, per OECD data, we're about the same as the UK, New Zealand, Japan and Israel, slightly higher than Portugal and Australia. Worth looking at... these are the 2025 numbers. https://www.oecd.org/tax/revenue-statistics-canada.pdf
Hunch? Or an agenda looking for corroboration?
1000000% this is happening. And it’s going to beget a tidal wave of young people doing it. Thanks to the “elbows up” crowd and 11 years of mismanagement, zero accountability and a government bereft of political courage and leadership. *sigh*
Those are a lot of current rightwing buzzwords that I keep hearing from the "Canada is broken" Poilievre stans with no substance behind them.
"elbows up crowd" - Nobody says that anymore. It was a campaign slogan used a few times. Get the hell over it.
11 years of mismanagement - I won't argue with this for much of the Trudeau era, but if you think Carney is governing the same way, you are simply being partisan over objective. This is what drove me out of the CPC.
zero accountability - what government has ever been made truly accountable? welcome to the world
bereft of political courage and leadership - to do what exactly? what do you want them to be courageous to do? Why do you think there is no leadership?
Figure yourselves out, Conservatives. Until you do, you'll continue to lose and then yell about it on Facebook "community" groups.
You understand that this kind of dismissive "um actually Canada is great, nothing needs to change and you're a dumbass for wanting that" which you are saying, writ large is the reason more Canadians are just giving up on the possibility of change and leaving.
"Elbows up" was a gallingly stupid slogan and movement. It deserves to join "woke" as a term only used in derision.
Let's all keep everything civil. No one has crossed the line yet but this ain't my first rodeo and I know where these threads go.
You guys could lead by not swearing during your podcasts.
Just sayin’.
Profanity is fine. Bickering with each other is not.
You're tempting me
No, profanity is not fine within a civil society.
Each time we allow our standards to wither, we are ill-prepared for what steps into the void.
Not what Red Letters said. Nor is Elbows Up a stupid slogan. Look at Howard Lutnick, red in the face that Canadian provinces are not importing US booze. We lifted an elbow... albeit from the bar top. The Americans noticed. That's not a slogan. If someone has the wherewithal to live elsewhere they should live their best life. But the rest of us, anyone who wants to live in a nation where there is a separation of church and state, where the rule of law is at least a topic of concern, where people are sometimes considered citizens before they are considered consumers, I would suggest the United States is probably not ideal. Which means where? The social democratic nations of Europe???
Using a government monopoly to forcefully remove a narrow category of consumer choice from your own citizens in order to hopefully mildly anger your trading partner ahead of negotiations isn't the flex you think it is.
Be sure to tell that to the Secretary of Commerce. And you misremember: Doug kicked California wine and Kentucky bourbon out of the Liqbo right away. It was not, as you suggest, a pre-negotiation tactic.
Ugh, I'm so tired of people getting a big stiff rubbery one over this kind of petty and meaningless tactic to 'stick it to the Americans'. We continue to stock every other kind of US product.
I made a point to load up on US bourbon when I was in Alberta just out of pure contrarian spite.
Except I didn't say that.
Sorry, Red Letters! I didn't mean to suggest that's what you said. I'm just saying that the previous poster did not understand you. I apologize for any confusion.
all good, I was referring to something KRM implied that I said.
Elbows up is currently in liberal use among commenters on this Substack. It’s a slapstick joke akin to Trump’s 51st state. Like lots of jokes, it’s funny the first time and insulting after the third time…
Carney has channeled the insult Canadians feel from Trump’s dismissive insults incredibly well. I wouldn’t have thought he had that talent. But- if it was unproductive for Trump, it’s self destructive for Canada. There’s a reason mom didn’t accept “but he said it first “
Carney is effectively the Viktor Orban of the north. Orban used parochial jealousy of Brussels and elbows up to rule for 16 years. But Brussels structure allows an Orban to persevere because it’s a quintessentially Northern European institution that expects members to play fair. US-Canada is different. And Trump is different…
Trump is a boor. But he’s running the US for 30+ months. And Trump is far more willing to escalate tit for tat against Canada in dirty nasty retaliation. And Trump runs an economy 10x bigger. Canada makes the NAFTA/USMCA better but it’s not essential. And in a war of nastiness, Trump can exclude Canada. It’s not reciprocal.
US/Canada is a marriage in need of a good therapist. America has legit grievances too. But neither side can afford a divorce- and divorce won’t solve the underlying challenges.
You couldn’t be more wrong.
Can you elaborate? I don't know what you're referring to.
The "elbows up crowd" are those who over attribute Canada's challenges to Trump. Poor productivity, low economic growth, unaffordable housing and regulatory gridlock all existed before November 2024.
It's also such a weird and obscure reference that I'm convinced they used AI to come up with it.
It plays to the innate Laurentian desire to villify America while craving it's attention. Loyalists gotta be Loyalists.
Laurentian Elite: aka the United Empire Loyalists. Canada was fine before they showed up...
Laurentian Elite is right up there with Flat Earth and Faked Moon Landings.
Doug, nobody is villifying America. Donald Trump told us to our faces we're a bunch of losers. If you're OK with that, why are you even reading a Canadian Substack?
Trump is a showman. Too many people use his statements to justify their pre-existing biases. Canada's future is with the US. That is an undeniable fact due to geography and it being the largest and most innovative economy.
I follow interesting Substacks. The nationality of said Substacks is irrelevant.
I see the psyop is still working. Personally I hope it continues for both me and my more well off clients. Not so great for the country as a whole though.
Canadians think psyops are conspiracy theories and propaganda is something that happens in other places and that they would easily detect if it was used on them. Which makes them especially vulnerable to manipulation as long as it wears a smile and has "nice" rhetoric.
Red Letters, this subject isn't about partisan politics. It's about the direction of Canada as a state either getting better or getting worse. The host of metrics that fall into this category might be cause for slightly more reflection when those under the age of 35 rank Canada around 70th in satisfaction (compared with other national rates of satisfaction) while the older generation places it in the top 20. Both are regularly falling lower in yearly polling.
So two things.
The first is that this generational discrepancy is the kind of 'inequity' that offers some insight into Matt's thesis about the scope and extent of Canadians giving up on the country: are things getting better or worse and for whom (if those under 35 ranked Canada in the top 5 or 10, for example, would you feel more or less confident in the future of the country? I think the answer is pretty obvious.).
The second is the direction of the trend. From regular appearances in the top 3 in the 90s, we are constantly trending downwards regardless of which party holds what power. The problems are not political per se that create such trends over the course of only their tenure; the problems are therefore systemic. Something is broken on a national scale. That means the solutions are not political per se (elect a different party - filled with potential but perfectly justifiable individual floor crossers, I guess - and the sinking ship of state will suddenly gain buoyancy); the solutions have to be equivalently systemic, equivalently non partisan.
Are we seeing any attempts whatsoever (other than political separation) for systemic changes to address the litany of country wide problems that in total fuel such a drastic and unequal decline? Or should we just keep on blaming someone else - a national pastime more common today than hockey and weather commentary combined - and switch political horses en masse... all of which are statistically galloping in exactly the wrong direction?
I appreciate your comment.
He's been working extremely hard undoing Justin's disastrous reign...
Not really.
I am curious about how you think Carney is doing any better, same team, same bad policies. So far we have not actually got one dime in new trade on shore, not one infrastructure project approved let alone shovels in the ground. We have more travel, more debt and lots of pretty words that amount to nothing. This is why people are leaving canada, or making plan Bs to leave if it gets worse.
Except for the nagging problem that neither you, nor the author of the piece that got this discussion started, have any proof to support your hunch that people are leaving.
So well said!
What do you think Carney's successes have been?
Other than rigging the circumstances of an election, abusing many Canadians' basest fears, and bribing his way to a majority.
That's hilarious. Ditch your loser leader and rhetoric like this and you'll be surprised how quickly your electoral fortunes will change. I've voted CPC far more than I haven't voted for them but you guys have lost a lot of us.
I note that Red Letters did not answer the question.
I did. It's not much, but I wanted to provide something.
Right. Pointing out abuses and manipulation is bad. Change is bad.
Let me guess, the CPC leader you have in mind is Michael Chong?
No and No. Another swing and a miss of an assumption.
Sure. I like that the consumer carbon tax is gone, the emphasis on energy expansion and infrastructure, increased defense spending, public service restructuring (for lack of a better word), the emphasis on establishing new trade partners, and desire to make it a big tent (maybe too big a tent?). There is lots to like and there is still lots not to like. It's politics, not tribal warfare.
The consumer carbon tax still exists, but the rate was set to zero.
Now that Carney has his majority, what makes you think it can't (or won't) come back?
There has been NO energy expansion, there has been NO reduction in the federal civil service, there have been NO new trading partners added.
MOST of the things you count as Carney's "successes" are in fact things which have been TALKED ABOUT, but have not actually occurred as of yet.
If you like the watered down versions of selected conservative policies, the real thing might blow your mind.
I like that the consumer carbon tax was eliminated and the military are getting better pay. Not sure what to think of the Liberal party now including an anti-vax pro-lifer.
The other things are all aspirational, aren't they?
That floor crossing was a real head scratcher. It seemed to piss off the left and right equally too.
Investing in America. Oh, you mean as Prime Minister...
You obviously follow the bought media and never look at stats. What economic stats are actually going in a positive direction under our economic genius PM?
What is "bought media"? Provide examples. And suggest alternatives. "Unbought"?
"Unbot"?
That must be it! I only follow certain media. That’s why I read The Line.
But how do you really feel?
You want to blame the ‘Elbows Up’ crowd? Victimhood has no bounds.
Lemme guess? And you wanna blame Trump? Our problems started in at least 2015….well before Trump 2.0 and I am NOT A FAN of Trump or MAGA.
Safe havens, it seems to me, are in short supply. In the Western World most governments are seriously in debt and continue to rack up serious deficits. There is no possible way, apparently, to raise taxes to pay the bills or no possible way, apparently, to cut spending on programmes for the people.
This cannot go on.
The US situation is emblematic of the problem - its deficits are epic (as are ours in my opinion) and their inability to do ANYTHING is a concern. The US can print money as a reserve currency to get out of it at the cost of INFLATION but that doesn't seem to be addressing the problem, just postponing the day.
Geopolitics are the worst in my lifetime of lo these many decades. The Cold War era was potentially existential in terms of threat in the days of my youth but the adults running the system kept a lid on it and we all carried on. Today looks increasingly like 1914 or 1939. Not a happy thought, particularly considering the characters of today's adults.
All to say, one can certainly move assets and one's self to more benign locations weatherwise but all the other problems exist basically everywhere to one extent or another. Exhibit A: UAE. Its security assumptions are in tatters and I wonder as to the long term for what was a pretty attractive bolt hole.
It might indeed be the better choice to tighten one's belt and see what one can do to improve things in our little slice of paradise.
So well said!!! Agree
There is no question it is happening for economic reasons. The new fly in the ointment is UNDRIP and DRIPA in BC. When governments allow private property to come under attack by the courts (or in some cases encouraged it) then people start to consider leaving. UNDRIP is destroying another leg of our societal chair. Productivity and the ability to earn a living in business was already gone. The entire chair is now falling over. People are bailing. It is time for radical surgery but I see no urgency in the Carney government.
Here's my suggestion:
The partially moved out is probably impossible to catch fully. However, in about 15 months it will be possible to catch the fully moved out.
We have a census coming up in June. Stats Can will begin to report out about a year later. Here's what can be done with the data:
Take population numbers by age for the 2026 census.
Strip out the ones who report arriving in the previous five years.
Then compare the numbers of people with the numbers that should be in each age range based on the numbers five years younger in 2021. This will have to be adjusted a bit for deaths, this can be calculated pretty precisely from vital statistics data.
This will leave us - for every age range - a good estimate of that the population numbers "should be" and "what they are." The difference will be the number of people who have left.
It will be a bit more work, but the same methodology can be used to calculate by educational attainment and occupation.
"...With the exception of when the pandemic first hit, exits don’t surpass starts. That hasn’t happened in 40 years." And who was the Prime Minister 40 years ago? That's right. Two of Canada's most economically illiterate Canadians.
How is it that 50 years after the last "oil shock" Canada still does not have energy independence? We've had 2 and a half generations to get it right and we failed. Our priority has been to keep control of the country (and it's immense natural wealth) in the hands of a select few. We've put profit ahead of all else. We told China in 1989 that we really don't care about human rights as long as we can profit financially and China has played along and now we are supplicants to China's whims and wishes...
Mulroney.
But, but, but, he wanted you to say PET. Doggone facts just seem to get in the way!
Exactly. Thank you. Where are all the comments about the US chains & even Tim Horton's not being Canadian anymore? Yoo hoo. Anyone tried to find anything other than Asian restaurants in Vancouver? But we sold out a very very long time ago - I still go to PetroCan out of nostalgia... 😢
Those with means who are managing significant assets in Canada do that through hard work, sharp financial acumen and generous faith in accounting and legal advice.
They most likely are also looking at the tea leaves and hedging on what the governance in Canada will be going forward and what the implications are for government to be able to manage the huge debt millstone that all levels of government are carrying.
In other words, there is no government anywhere in Canada that is reigning in spending, trimming the public service or launching any significant look at programming to eliminate duplication or redundancy.
On the current trajectory, the only option will be to target large financial assets for new revenue streams. Such as annual taxing on principal dwellings. Or pension fund raids to finance dubious investments. Or wealth taxes.
If I had millions of dollars and watching our three levels of government blundering their way into a financial crisis, I would be quietly hedging my money elsewhere too.
A Civil engineer colleague of mine in his early to mid 30s left a highly stable job in Toronto to move to LA last year with his wife. He got a far better paying job and a much better house to live in Orange county. That's my own anecdote for you.
Brookfield moved to NYC to access to more capital and, I speculate, to a better tax environment.
Where Brookfield does the best tax avoidance work is in Bermuda. They figured out a way to get around the income trust scam the Tories got rid of after the Liberals let it get out of hand.
I’m sure many Canadian politicians have already covered themselves with this approach however can’t prove.
Canada is in a unprecedented decline due to Liberal mismanagement over the last decade with wealth redistribution, staggering taxes, economy totally dependent on real estate, governments regulating everything and not getting out of the way of big and small businesses, extremely poor health care and infrastructure was allowed deteriorate.
Provincial government played along and did not improve health care or education.
Everything was DEI and woke! Not focusing on the best people to make Canada a great country.
The issue also very much exists among immigrants: "Highly educated and highly skilled immigrants leave at twice the rate of those with less education and lower skills. Doctorate holders are nearly twice as likely to leave as those with a bachelor’s degree. And the occupations with the greatest labour needs face the weakest retention: ICT (information, communications, technology) professionals, engineers, business and finance managers, and architecture managers show the highest departure rates. Canada is losing people with the skills and experience it most needs to keep."
https://thehub.ca/2026/04/22/canadas-brain-drain-is-only-half-the-story/?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=EABOD/magazine/Canada+Eh.+
Thanks for the link. Good stuff.
Another problem with people leaving is that subscriptions to podcasts will be lost, charities will lose money, and folks who rely on their families will still get the financial support, but not the emotional support and the security that comes with family close by.
It is a solution for people who expect more from their government and the tax money that government takes.
Follow the money Matt. Our Prime Minister has a great vision for Canada in a New World Order but he’s not risking his personal fortune on it. 91% of his personal investments are in the United States. .5% invested in Canada. He’s a smart money man. We’re following his lead.
me too! and I don't mean that in the 2016 way!
This is a great trend to watch, just as the government-subsidized media are paid to ignore the same.
Good on you, Matt.
Yes, Big Data sets are collections of individual anecdotes. That is precisely why Big Date sets are so valuable.
“In God we Trust, all others must bring data.” Edward Deming
As these perturbations increase in frequency and intensity, so too will the folks on the margin unwilling to put up with them any longer.
Remember too, this trend can be manifested also as movement within Canada.
My wife and I are in the process of leaving London, Ontario to escape the lawlessness, decay, filth, congestion, and abdication.
We are moving to Bayfield. If Bayfield follows the trends, we are off for Texas.
This is interesting, and well worth exploring more extensively. In VC land, "exits" are a good thing. In many technology-based industries, that usually means a sale to or merger with a US (or European) based company. We do not have enough large "anchor" companies to support a vibrant innovative economy and if we continue to define "success" as selling to the highest bidder, we will never develop them. We do not have enough venture capital to roll the proceeds of these exits back into the innovation economy. Some of the disincentives are deeply systemic (IP related; regulatory; procurement and tax policies) and some are - alas - deeply psychological (risk aversion; adulation of US models; small scale thinking; excessive reliance on government handouts.) For governments, it is easier to invest in "incubators" and basic research than to institute deep reforms in e.g. procurement, reform of the tax system, or regulatory reform.
Might be proof
“ The analysis estimates that a substantial share of Canadians who would rank among top earners in Canada have emigrated to the United States—roughly 40 percent of potential top 1 percent earners and 30 to 50 percent of the next nine percentiles. Canadian-born individuals in the United States are more educated than native-born Americans, earn substantially more, and cluster disproportionately in top income deciles.
Canada is effectively exporting its inequality to the U.S. The brain drain simultaneously lowers our average income while raising American income, accounting for a significant share of the persistent GDP gap.”
https://thehub.ca/2026/03/20/why-canadas-gdp-per-capita-crisis-is-real-deepdive/
For me, we have been losing people for years - usually economic conditions; but the brain drain has been a thing many times in Canada.
But then there's now. Vile poisonous antisemitism has infected every thread of our society since October 7, 2023. It has infected our institutions, the academe, labour unions, K-12 education, public health and medicine, media and more. It has been allowed to threaten people, assault people, intimidate fellow citizens who have zero to do with the war in Gaza. Synagogues have been firebombed and antisemitic 'protesters' marched through Jewish neighborhoods.
We. Have. Been. Here. Before.
This has been allowed to fester. Inaction from the very institutions that are built to protect jews delivers coffee to the protestors. Jews are absolutely leaving Canada. Fellow citizens of ours who just want to live as free from fear as you or me.