Matt Gurney: How we'd fight, if we'd fight
Gaming out Canada's ability to sacrifice in its own defence.
By: Matt Gurney
Almost three years ago, I thought Ukraine would lose. And quickly.
I was wrong.
Over these last three years, I've tried to figure out why I was wrong. A big part of it was overestimating the readiness of the Russian military. But there was also simply a willingness to fight among Ukrainians that was greater than I had imagined. They are still fighting.
Canada is not facing an armed invasion by a genocidal neighbour. And it's important to state that fact near the very top. But the incoming U.S. administration is openly musing about the end of the Canadian state — not by conquest or annihilation, but by annexation and assimilation. That talk is now being picked up in other parts of U.S. society, including in the opinion pages of The New York Times.
I could easily make an argument that Donald Trump and his administration will lose interest in this idea once consumed by the challenges of actually governing the U.S. The torment of Justin Trudeau, and Panama and Greenland, too, might just be a boredom-easing indulgence for Trump while he sits around waiting to be inaugurated anew.
But ... what if it's not? What if the incoming U.S. administration really wants to achieve, as a matter of American national policy, the absorption of Canada in some form or another?
How would Canada resist? More importantly, why would Canada resist?
I think a lot of Canadians, myself included, would have an open mind to some kind of closer economic union with the U.S. I’m not hoping for one, but I’d give good-faith consideration to a reasonable offer. The problem is, we probably aren’t going to get reasonable offers. What I suspect we’re going to get is a series of painful demands and punishing economic moves to soften us up for concessions in future trade and defence negotiations. That some of these demands will be entirely fair will only add insult to injury. We are, if I may be a bit flippant, about to get “art-of-the-dealed” by Trump and his people.
And since I can't rule out that they really do want to annex Canada, and will pursue a political, economic and cultural policy of weakening and destabilizing this country in order to pursue that objective, let's actually game this out a bit. How would we resist that? Would we even try?