Michael Den Tandt: Canada can't risk rearming at a peacetime pace
The defence plan is good. It just needs to happen much, much faster.
By: Michael Den Tandt
Is Canada finally beginning to arm itself against the new era of geopolitical disorder? The dollar figures in the federal government’s new defence policy, reprised in Tuesday’s budget, suggest so. But a closer look indicates otherwise. Greater urgency and speed are needed.
Consider, first, the tenor of the Defence department’s updated policy, entitled Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada’s Defence, which updates 2017’s Strong, Secure & Engaged (in which, full disclosure, I had a small hand while working in the Prime Minister’s Office). As far as that goes, this update gets full marks.
In stark terms, the paper outlines the dizzying scope of new threats, whether in the cyber domain, in space, from AI, from hypersonic missiles, and from drones. Meanwhile Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are moving and acting together, as an authoritarian bloc.
These four are not quite presented as the new Axis versus the Allied powers, but there’s more than a whiff of that. Whether in the cyber domain, in Ukraine, in the Pacific or the Middle East, those authoritarian powers have been the democratic West’s principal strategic adversaries for years. It’s high time this was made explicit.
“Through their actions,” the policy states, “they normalize the use of violence, coercion and intimidation to achieve their political ambitions. These efforts and the increasing cooperation among them allow them to share military technologies and resources and direct them at democratic states.”
Not only are new battle lines drawn, but the broader context is mapped as well. Irreversible impacts of climate change, technological interconnectedness, our growing dependence on the internet, satellites and cloud computing, artificial intelligence and pandemic risk all are presented as part of the rationale for a more robust defence. In essence, the document acknowledges what security experts have long been saying: Global disorder is the new normal. It will be with us for some time. The attacks this past week on Israel by Iran and now, just last night, Israel’s raid on Iran are yet more signs of our new, more dangerous world order.
Beyond these unprecedented exchanges of missiles, the evidence supporting a shift to a more dangerous geopolitical environment is voluminous and incontrovertible. Most recently, the Centre for International Governance Innovation has published research that quantifies this based on demographic, economic and fiscal indicators. Among the more intriguing findings is that no likely economic path has China overtaking the United States in terms of global influence, between now and 2040. And all likely paths project a sharp decline in global population growth over the same period, including in China.
This is worrying, because declining population growth is a precursor to declining economic power, which in turn means declining military might, and also a tendency to lash out. As the American political scientist Michael Beckley has noted, there is a lengthy historical pattern of rising powers becoming expansionist when their initial economic boom slows. In a prolonged multipolar interregnum between the U.S.-led order that followed the Second World War, and whatever comes next, threats will continue to multiply. A capable military is essential to national survival.
Which brings us back to the federal defence update, and its raft of new spending, with $8.1 billion in additional funding by 2029-30, by which time Canada’s military spending will reach just under 1.8 per cent of GDP, with steady increases adding up to $72.3-billion by 2043-44. Commitments include ramping up recruitment, revamping procurement, new subs for the Arctic, tactical helicopters, new vehicles and long-range missiles, drones, a new Canadian Cyber Command, and more. There is a laudable commitment to developing reserves of ammunition.
The commitment — as was a prior promise, from 2022, to spend $38 billion on NORAD modernization over 20 years — is all to the good.
But the elephant in the room, when it comes to federal defence commitments, is that we’ve seen these before, from both major governing parties, with disappointing results. The purchase of new fighters for the Royal Canadian Air Force was first announced in July of 2010. The rebuild of the Royal Canadian Navy’s surface combatants, replacements for the 1980s-era frigates, was first announced in the fall of 2011. We don’t yet have either new fighter jets or new surface combatants. And the vast majority of funding outlined in the updated policy statement will be up to future governments. Net incremental new spending in 2024-25 is just $612 million.
There was a historical moment, not long ago, when Canadian military preparedness advanced at a wartime pace — when Canadian soldiers were fighting and dying in Afghanistan. From 2005 through 2010, the governments of Canada, initially Liberal, then Conservative, set about getting our soldiers the kit and equipment they needed. In short order the CAF acquired Chinook helicopters, Boeing C-17s and Hercules C-130 transports, and more. It is possible.
The great risk in building up Canada’s defences at a leisurely, peacetime rate, is that the days of leisurely, peacetime stability are over. The update can be counted as progress. But it needs a major infusion of urgency.
Michael Den Tandt is managing editor at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and a writer on international affairs. He is a former speechwriter and advisor to the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Canada.
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I'm sorry but the Government of Canada; regardless of Party in charge, must be considered as "all talk, no action", until actions prove that theory wrong. We are effectively a US protectorate, and our sovereignty relies almost entirely on them. And we're living like that while running another $40 billion deficit with nothing to show for it.
Unfortunately, Canada as a mid power is no more. We have effectively been neutered by our present government, both diplomatically and militarily. The best we can hope for is to be reasonably well treated by the next global power. Depressing really.