Mike Colledge: Forget the Overton Window. Now it's the Trump Door.

Increased polarization means that leaders do not have to wait for a majority to support a given policy before they act.

By: Mike Colledge

Donald Trump doesn’t want to wait for Overton’s window to open, so he just kicks open doors.

The Overton Window, named after Joseph Overton of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, is used to explain how policy ideas gain acceptance and move from idea to policy. The “window,” as Overton saw, could include a wide range of ideas from those with little to no support to those that have matured, gained public traction, and could be supported by the public as legitimate policy options for governments. The “window” was not static. It could — and did — shift, expand, or contract based on social movements, economic pressures, cultural trends, and/or the actions of leaders in the public and private sectors.

Those who wanted to push ideas into the window and gain acceptance and support usually had to spend considerable effort — and sometimes years — promoting and making the case for their cause and moving it into the mainstream. Al Gore’s documentary An Inconvenient Truth and Greta Thunberg’s ongoing efforts to push for action on climate change are examples of leaders using their profile to push and keep climate change action in Overton’s Window.

Lately, though, it feels like the Overton Window has been replaced by the Trump Door. While Overton observed and studied what was happening, Trump is more of an active participant. Overton provided us with an analytical framework; Trump’s door is more of a tactical approach.

And this is a big change. The world moves much faster than it did in the mid-90s when Overton first created his “window.” The democratization of communications and the speed of communications means anyone can comment, report, or share an opinion instantly (and often without considering the consequences). Increased polarization means that leaders looking to act and to reinforce support for their desired policies do not have to wait for a majority to support a given policy before they act. They merely need a vocal plurality of their own supporters to move forward with an idea.

Trump hasn’t so much smashed the window as he has replaced it with a large swinging Western saloon-style door. He has shown no interest in framing and positioning an issue for the public’s consideration in hopes of building support from a majority. He is throwing ideas into and out of the public-consideration saloon as fast as possible. Some ideas he throws in as distractions. Others he throws in as announcements of his intent regardless of the public’s perspective.

To those of you saying in your head “I don’t think Trump thinks this deeply about what he is doing,” you could be correct. But the net impact of his actions is the creation of a Trump Door that, unlike a window, is not transparent and, again unlike Overton’s Window, is not about building public acceptance. It is a tool to achieve his goals as fast as possible. When obstacles require a shift in policy — given there is no need to engage the public — he simply throws another idea into the saloon.

Trump’s decision last month to mobilize the National Guard and the U.S. Marines in Los Angeles is a prime example of his willingness to throw policy through the door without considering who or what is on the other side. But this is only one example of a policy Trump has shoved through the door. The rapid efforts by DOGE to cut government spending, at a speed that guaranteed mistakes that would then be (in theory) reversed, is another easy example.

But it’s his on-again, off-again tariffs might be the biggest (and ongoing) case. Other than Trump and a small circle of supporters, there is little appetite or support among economists or business leaders for these Trump-style tariffs. Many critics who are still working within Overton’s Window are making the case that his actions will lead to a recession. But from a Trump Door perspective … lots of things could lead to a recession, and the tariffs serve a different goal.

In fact, a recent Ipsos study found that less than half of Americans support some of the executive orders signed by Trump. For example, less than half (46 per cent) of Americans support ending diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs in the federal government, and only 14 per cent supported his pardoning of people convicted of violent crimes related to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Trump is not alone in taking advantage of the “door.”

In Canada, Prime Minister Carney quickly took the consumer carbon tax out of the “window” after the Liberal party had spent close to a decade making a case for its acceptance. There was no consultation or public consideration about what the change would mean. The “price on carbon” was thrown out of the saloon of public ideas with great fanfare by the same group that once dedicated its efforts to preserving it.

More recently, the prime minister announced that Canada will reach its NATO commitment to spend two per cent of our GDP on national defence within a year, significantly speeding up an election commitment he made only months ago to reach the target by 2030. The PM then said that Canada would hit the new target of five per cent in the next few years. The prime minister also promises to move fast on projects of national interest will also rest heavily on the existence of Trump’s Door. He seems more than willing to throw his ideas through the swinging door to make them happen — and happen fast.

His biggest resistance may come from inside his own house, because moving fast is not in the DNA of governments. Governments are slow and bureaucratic institutions by design. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s Gender-Based Analysis Plus (GBA Plus) is a good example of this measured consideration. It is designed to ensure that all “legal services, litigation, law reform, policy and program development, international agreements or programs, research, communications, evaluation, management …” are examined before being implemented. These considerations take time, and the Trump Door doesn’t build in time for very much beyond announcements and change.

All of government — from the professional public service to politicians, and all of those who touch government from the news media to special interest groups and business — should start to assume that the policy window is now a free-swinging door. Decisions will happen quickly, be pushed into action faster, and the bar for making those decisions will become a tighter list of considerations focused more on the contribution to the here and now and less on the potential and longer-term possibilities.

A decade ago, understanding the Overton Window might have been crucial for anyone looking to promote a policy, shape public discourse, and influence lawmakers. Today, the Trump Door swings freely. Ideas will be thrown in for quick consideration and action. Ideas will be thrown out just as fast if resistance rallies quickly. Other ideas will land and become policy before they are duly considered. If resistance builds over time, they could be thrown back out the door when there is a change of leadership.

This will lead to less predictability and greater uncertainty. Proponents and opponents will learn that their moment to support or oppose any idea will be fleeting. Wins will not be measured over the long term by assessing the impact of policy X or Y on the lives of citizens, but rather in the moment and judged mainly on the pronouncement of those who have thrown their idea through the door.

Mike Colledge is president ESG of Ipsos Canada.

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