Mike Colledge: Welcome to 2026 - the year of endurance

It is shaping up to be a year Canadians expect to muddle through.

By: Mike Colledge

Canadians are looking toward 2026 with quiet resolve and a recognition that there are no quick fixes. Behind us are the sunny days and the belief that there is a plan for the middle class and those hoping to join it. Also fading are the days of denial that Canada is just a few policy tweaks away from renewed growth, restored prosperity, and effective public services. We are no longer quite so confident that we will successfully push back against the United States on trade.

Polling is painting a much more grounded picture of the national mood. Ultimately, 2025 may well be remembered as the turning point, the moment when post-pandemic feelings of progress and collective purpose gave way to a more sobering focus on endurance and holding our ground while the world evolves around us and Canada struggles to find its place.

Our leaders have acknowledged this. Late in 2025, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that “unless things change … our incomes will be lower,” citing sluggish growth and the drag of tariffs. Prime Minister Mark Carney, in a pre-budget speech, cautioned that the economic task ahead “will take some sacrifices and some time.” These were notable statements, not just for their content, but for their timing. They came after months of “elbows up” rhetoric and anti-Trump memes that defined the early part of the year and the federal election campaign.

Endurance, sacrifice and patience are honest messages, but they are terrible election slogans. That reality likely explains why the Liberals appear more focused on winning a House of Commons majority through floor crossings than risking another trip to the polls.

A 2026 election would likely be counterproductive anyway. It would delay progress on the structural changes Canada clearly needs. Pick an issue -- whether it is health care, immigration, energy, or the economy, and the conclusion is the same: incremental fixes will not suffice. What is needed looks less like hitting Ctrl-Alt-Del and more like wiping the hard drive clean and starting over. None of these challenges will be fully resolved in 2026 or even 2028, but forward motion, even messy, contested forward motion, is far better than another decade of denial.

Affordability will remain the dominant political, social, and economic issue in 2026, but it is not the only stress Canadians are carrying.

More than half say the risk to their health is moderate to high, and a similar percentage share that they are feeling stressed. Nearly two-thirds believe Canadian society is out of control. Trust in government sits below 50 per cent, and 70 per cent worry that governments will do little to help them in the years ahead.

Politically, we will likely manage through without a dramatic affordability reset but also without a crash. As a result, most Canadian households now appear cash-flow constrained and this looks like it will be the norm for some time. The result is a new social divide, less about left versus right or region versus region, and more about those who can afford stability and those who cannot.

We are already seeing signs of this shift. Younger Canadians are struggling financially and it has affected more than their purchasing power. They have shown greater empathy for the 2022 Trucker protests, more openness to U.S. citizenship than their older counterparts, and a growing willingness to reject the status quo of the last decade by voting Conservative. Economic optimism is no longer assumed; it must be earned.

An endurance mindset makes Canadians more pragmatic and less ideological. In this environment, aspiration gives way to adaptation. Achievement to stagnation.

Before 2025, cohesion was best described as down but not out. Trump’s annexation musings tested whether Canadians could still tap into a sense of “we’re all in this together.” For a moment, they did. Ipsos data shows social cohesion rising above its five-year norm in mid-2025, the highest level since late 2022. But by December 2025, it had slipped back into negative territory, suggesting that unity was a moment, not a movement.

That moment still matters. It shows that cohesion can be rekindled. But cracks are visible. Baby Boomers are still relatively optimistic and cohesive. Generations X and Z, far less so. Regionally, Atlantic Canada is still the most positive, while Quebec and Alberta are far more skeptical that things are on the right track. Endurance takes a toll. Stress, anxiety, and diminished optimism are already evident. What Canadians want from governments and businesses in 2026 is not grand visions of a distant future. They want simplicity, transparency, fairness, and dignity.

Help people protect what they already have. Reassure them they are making sensible choices for themselves and their families. Normalize moderation. Avoid aspirational promises they do not believe they or their governments will ever achieve.

Most importantly, recognize that Canadians’ time horizon has shortened. Success is measured in days, not years and in outcomes that affect their immediate household. Asking them to invest money or time in distant futures or policies that will not deliver for years will only deepen resentment.

2026 will not be about thriving. It will be about enduring. How institutions respond to that reality may determine whether Canada finds its way back to something better or Canadians simply learn how to live with less.

Mike Colledge is the Sustainability and Executive Insights Lead for Ipsos Canada.

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