Mitch Heimpel: Soon, our parliament could be the CPC vs. the Bloc

We haven't seen this in decades. We should start thinking about what it would mean.

By: Mitch Heimpel

Yves-François Blanchet may be Pierre Poilievre's long-term foe.

At first glance, it seems like an obvious statement. 

Poilievre's lead has been so consistent, and so large, for so long that he seems destined to be the next prime minister. It's tempting to write this off as a simple change agent election. But, unlike Keir Starmer in the U.K., who got elected only to become almost instantly unpopular, Poilievre's success seems to be based on a set of values and policy desires actually present in the electorate.

The political futures for Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau, in contrast, seem identically bleak. Neither seems likely to long survive (politically speaking, of course) the results of the next election.

Meanwhile, recent polling has forecasted the possibility that, for the first time since 1997, the Bloc Québécois could form the Official Opposition in Ottawa. The last Bloc leader to lead the party to that status was Lucien Bouchard, which would put Blanchet in a particularly rarefied political class among Quebec separatists. This, coupled with the recent popularity of Parti Québécois leader Paul St. Pierre Plamondon, has many wondering how Canada could confront a resurgent Quebec separatism with a diminishing Liberal Party.

What we're seeing play out on Parliament Hill as the Conservative and Bloc leaders joust with each other over confidence motions may only be a preview of what we may see play out for the next half decade if Liberals and New Democrats spend their time licking their wounds and quibbling over leadership questions. 

Poilievre, in the short term, is trying to wedge Blanchet with “change” voters inside his own base. According the Leger, 68 per cent of Bloc voters are very, or somewhat, dissatisfied with the current federal Liberal government. The biggest share of Bloc voters (38 per cent) fall in the “very dissatisfied” camp. This means that being seen to prop up the Trudeau Liberals is not a proposition that comes without cost for Blanchet. Separatists are bad dance partners for coalition governments. They are, by definition, the one party that is sent to the legislature with the understanding that they exist to prove the national government isn't working. 

That's why Blanchet's offer to keep the Liberals alive took the form of a ransom note. Two clear demands, presented in public, with no room for negotiation. The Bloc leader has already voted to keep the Liberals alive twice this fall. There are going to be more confidence votes. They are unlikely to fly under the radar in Quebec. And, with each vote, the pressure on Blanchet is likely to increase, and the opportunity for Poilievre to speak to that 38 per cent of Blanchet's base, grows. 

For his part, Blanchet seems better prepared to joust with Poilievre than either Singh or Trudeau to this point. His two asks of the government — an increase to OAS for those 65-75, and even more trade protections for the supply-managed dairy sector — probably aren't that popular with movement conservatives, or inside the Conservative caucus. But they're popular in Quebec. And especially popular with the voters that the Bloc and the Tories typically fight over in Quebec. For what it's worth, Poilievre's team seems to have anticipated this, and they've invested more in courting some of Montreal's allophone communities than previous Conservative leaders, in an attempt to become less reliant on their nationalist fights with the Bloc in Quebec's regions.

We know that Quebec Conservative Party Leader Eric Duhaime was more popular with allophones than Anglophones or Francophones in the Montreal area in the 2022 Quebec Election. We also know that the Quebec Conservatives performed best with male voters under 35, somewhere Poilievre has also been successful. But we actually know very little about the voters Blanchet and Poilievre are really fighting over. This is something that it is very much in our interest to learn more about, as it could set the tone for our politics. 

Ottawa has exhausted boxing metaphors in recent months as it contemplates the end of Justin Trudeau's premiership. So, I'll change sports for this one. Watching Blanchet and Poilievre these last few weeks brings to mind a Cy Young pitcher and a .300 hitter locked into playoff at-bat. Every foul ball, every change in the count, every dig into the dirt, or crowding of the plate, means something. Something that has many more innings to play out. 

Maybe Rachel Notley or Wab Kinew step up and the post-Jagmeet Singh future of the NDP takes a major shift. Maybe the Liberals avoid electoral oblivion.

But right now, we may be in the opening innings of a confrontation unlike any Canada has seen since Lucien Bouchard resigned from Brian Mulroney’s cabinet.

Mitch Heimpel has served Conservative cabinet ministers and party leaders at the provincial and federal levels, and is currently the director of campaigns and government relations at Enterprise Canada.

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