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Tony F.'s avatar

I've been reading others thinking along these lines (I find Cory Doctorow and Scott Galloway talk about these themes in an entertaining way). Here's where I think we go wrong from a policy point of view: we tend to elect governments that promise 'good paying jobs for the middle class' and the easiest, fastest way, highest-profile way for them to deliver is to support, subsidize and attract large companies capable of generating lots of 'showcase' jobs quickly. So, government pours money into projects that promise to create good paying jobs, and then is motivated to create a business environment designed to support the companies they've now aligned themselves with to keep those jobs and investment here.

Ultimately, the government gets captured because it's tossed millions (or billions) of dollars into projects for the promise of good-paying jobs and it needs to see returns in a fairly short timeframe.

I think the role of government is to maintain competitive, dynamic and trustworthy markets. That means regulation, including anti-trust and competitive legislation, that keeps lots of entrants and lots of competition. Doing so will make the market more dynamic (which is good) which means job stability might be less (which isn't so good if you are the one impacted). The answer is to develop good programs to help people make the transitions between opportunities -- which can mean retraining and relocation. That's actually good both for workers and the economy over the long term as people shift to places where there are actual opportunities.

That would also require a change in mindset for workers -- recognizing that you are more likely to have to shift from job to job and that you might not be able to find the next opportunity where you are currently living ... which has impacts on housing too.

Now, I'm not saying getting this policy mix is easy -- it's not. It's a lot more like trying to create a really interesting, competitive sports league, where you want to keep each team competitive, allow winning teams to get rewarded, but not so much so that they become unbeatable. It would mean looking at 'sunset' industries and focus more on helping people transition to the next thing and less on propping up inbumbents.

It's very different than the 20th century model, which focused a lot on attracting foreign direct investments (the branch plant economy) where landing a big auto plant would then generate several thousand good-paying jobs and a whole network of suppliers, reliably for decades. I think that model doesn't really work anymore -- the big value in modern companies is data and IP and that tends to accrue value at the head office, not at the 'branch plant' where work can be automated and companies can get governments to compete on subsidies.

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MustardClementine's avatar

My stance on most of this is very much the same as yours - however, I really don't believe our government will ever actively work against those with vested interests in the way things are, unless their influence is blunted by something quite extreme, such as a commercial and/or residential real estate crash, or even a general economic crash (which, let's face it, anything substantial in real estate would cause, here). It's been something of a theme throughout my last three posts on my Substack.

I think something tumultuous must happen first, for our own government to change course, which is currently firmly set on maintaining the status quo. That's because they don't believe the problems you describe are real; they truly think the problem is populists stirring up trouble by stating there are problems.

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