I understand where Jen Gerson and Thomas Lukaszyck are coming from with respect to not debating Alberta separatists. Would the calculus change if the debate were hosted by a reputable media organization with clear rules to prevent abusive personal attacks and keep the debate focused on substantive discussions? I imagine that might actually be a debate that the *separatists* would decline to join, but it’d be interesting to hear them asked questions about their funding sources, among other issues.
Personally, my real concern is less about the format and more about the asymmetry problem. If I go up there and bullshit and make stuff up, I suffer a serious reputational blow -- I therefore have an incentive not lie and bullshit and make stuff up. My incentives are to make points that are grounded in reality and rational, even if they don't make people feel good.
Put me up against someone who has no reputation to protect, and they can counter any rebuttal or position with ... literally whatever they want. They can say absolute garbage nonsense, they can make up claims on the fly, and their supporters will eat it up because it appeals to their emotions, not to any kind of consensus reality. There's just no way to have a fair debate with that kind of informational asymmetry. How do you debate someone who is willing to get on a stage and claim that leaving Canada will double everybody's personal income, halve their taxes, and yet will allow them to work or travel in Canada as they will -- no downsides! It's a debate with someone's elaborate fantasy.
The only way to make a debate a reasonable one is if the separatists can put forward a supporter who has actual personal credibility; someone who is willing to debate from a position of facts and reason -- not just make stuff up that will appeal to outrage and emotion. JG
How do you debate someone who makes fantastic claims? Ask them what evidence that they have that their claims are true. Doubling income? Likely a stretch. Halving taxes? If we look at current federal govt spending in AB, this should be possible to discuss. Option of work or travel in Canada? To say Albertans won't have that is to say that Ottawa can legally strip citizenship from Albertans for no cause - there is doubtless Supreme Court precedent on that very issue. Will Ottawa expel people born in Alberta who have lived in Ontario their whole lives? Or strip citizenship from Albertans born in Ontario? Seems unlikely to me, but you could make the case.
If the whole argument is "Ottawa will retaliate lawlessly and crush us", go ahead and make it.
As soon as some "credible" figures support AB secession, it's all over. The strategy of "scoff and vilify" is very risky. Better to actually discuss the issues.
The idea that Albertans could claim independence and yet keep Canadian citizenship is hilarious. What reason does Canada have to allow Albertans to have their cake and eat it too??
Everyone born in Canada is a Canadian citizen, which includes most current Albertans. The Supreme Court regularly renders decisions extending citizenship. Would the government revoke citizenship from people born in Alberta resident in Ontario? We have never done that with any other foreign country. Maybe we will just intern them, like Japanese-Canadians in WW2. Or would they revoke citizenship for people born in Ontario resident in Alberta? What about people who immigrated to Canada from India and acquired Canadian citizenship while living in Alberta? Would we strip them of their citizenship? Would we do it retroactively, so people now dead who were born in Alberta are no longer Canadians? Or would that depend on where they were buried? Would we ban dual Alberta/Canadian citizenship, alone of all the countries in the world?
Sure, newborn Albertans wouldn't have Canadian citizenship going forward, but they aren't voting in a referendum.
Unlikely. We are still at the "scoff and vilify" stage of the Alberta secession debate, mainly because the only argument against secession is status quo bias/bogeyman invocation. Albertans are disliked by most of their "fellow Canadians" and their foreign trade is impeded as much as we can get away with.
You're not doing well on the crediblity scale here :-)
I'm an older person who lives in the GTA & most of the people I know are older people who live in the GTA. And last I looked none of us were running the country :-)
I can't explain Lukaszyck's motivation beyond prolonging his grudge against the UCP and a desire to remain a public figure. The Forever Canadian petition is a stunt responding to another stunt.
Totally agree. This is just another attempt by TL to stay relevant and appear to be representative of a brand that he lost a long time ago with the public.
Organizing this is a lot better than sitting on the couch and complaining that the separatists are getting a free open lane. I give him full marks for doing this. Interesting that Jason Kenney thought no one could ever get 300,000 signatures. If this petition succeeds it's a pretty loud and clear statement from people of Alberta.
I disagree. It is a petition to support the status quo. It won't quell the dissatisfaction with Ottawa, which is the symbolic objective of separatism. Ideally, the separation petition falls just short and Ottawa hate finds a more constructive tact.
One would think that an individual with his political experience would consider all possible outcomes. If politics is a game of chess, this is no Grand Master.
The Forever referendum provides a safe opportunity for protest. Voting "No" eggs Confederation but poses no real risk, unlike the referendum on sovereignty that comes with the requisite uncertainty.
Jen, a great wide ranging interview. I suspect that the majority of Albertans are, like Thomas, looking for the "reasonable centre" in policy that is beholden neither to American funded, Smith supported separatists, or the eastern Canada hardcore ideologically driven left wing of the NDP.
Thomas has always, in my interactions with him during our mutual days in government, been one of those people who makes sure he is fully briefed and engaged on the file under consideration. That focus will make this a successful effort and one that I am excited to assist with!
These types of petitions are regularly used to harvest lists for future fundraising. In this case for the Alberta NDP who Thomas admits to voting for. No one considers him a conservative in Alberta, not even the NDP.
Nevertheless, what this petition helps doing is code Canadian nationalism as left wing and separatism as right wing. The Alberta left are centralizing nationalists because they are Ottawa as a "civilizing force" against "those Yahoo's" and will protect them against those populist Americans.
As for Lukaszuk, he is very light on reasons for a united Canada beyond "it's too scary."
Thomas sounds like someone telling their spouse that they will never survive by themselves if they leave the marriage.
Excellent interview. I wish Alberta had more leaders like Lukaszuk and fewer like Smith. That the separatist movement has cultivated the likes of the latter is telling.
Where I find common cause with Mr. Lucaszuk is in his refusal to choose between two loaded dinner plates (UCP & NDP), both laden with relatively palatable, edible meals, but horribly over-seasoned with both fresh & dried manure so as to make choosing either to eat nearly impossible. That's where Mr. Lucaszuk finds himself, as do I.
We really do need a third voting choice in Alberta that does not simply split the so-called 'right-wing' vote (as Premier Smith obviously fears) but rather captures enough sensible-centrist people currently voting NDP or UCP toward the centrist alternative to form a majority, or at least a sizeable minority, in the next provincial election, leaving the remaining NDP and UCP caucuses as rump 'consciences' to the left and right. Perhaps that can be the Alberta Party, now rebranding itself as the new (old) Progressive Conservative Party? Not yet, but in time, perhaps?
Bravo on bringing on Mr. Lucaszuk for the long-form interview - he is much more coherent in that setting than he comes across on his social media feed, which often does not flatter him. He may not be the best leader for a 'third-way' party in Alberta, but he certainly would be valuable as an adviser to them in crafting policy & platform, given his past experience. His hijacking of the separatist referendum 'July 4th' strategy underlies his superior understanding of the rule of law, and made the Alberta sovereignist-republican crowd look amateurish in contrast.
I understand where Jen Gerson and Thomas Lukaszyck are coming from with respect to not debating Alberta separatists. Would the calculus change if the debate were hosted by a reputable media organization with clear rules to prevent abusive personal attacks and keep the debate focused on substantive discussions? I imagine that might actually be a debate that the *separatists* would decline to join, but it’d be interesting to hear them asked questions about their funding sources, among other issues.
Personally, my real concern is less about the format and more about the asymmetry problem. If I go up there and bullshit and make stuff up, I suffer a serious reputational blow -- I therefore have an incentive not lie and bullshit and make stuff up. My incentives are to make points that are grounded in reality and rational, even if they don't make people feel good.
Put me up against someone who has no reputation to protect, and they can counter any rebuttal or position with ... literally whatever they want. They can say absolute garbage nonsense, they can make up claims on the fly, and their supporters will eat it up because it appeals to their emotions, not to any kind of consensus reality. There's just no way to have a fair debate with that kind of informational asymmetry. How do you debate someone who is willing to get on a stage and claim that leaving Canada will double everybody's personal income, halve their taxes, and yet will allow them to work or travel in Canada as they will -- no downsides! It's a debate with someone's elaborate fantasy.
The only way to make a debate a reasonable one is if the separatists can put forward a supporter who has actual personal credibility; someone who is willing to debate from a position of facts and reason -- not just make stuff up that will appeal to outrage and emotion. JG
How do you debate someone who makes fantastic claims? Ask them what evidence that they have that their claims are true. Doubling income? Likely a stretch. Halving taxes? If we look at current federal govt spending in AB, this should be possible to discuss. Option of work or travel in Canada? To say Albertans won't have that is to say that Ottawa can legally strip citizenship from Albertans for no cause - there is doubtless Supreme Court precedent on that very issue. Will Ottawa expel people born in Alberta who have lived in Ontario their whole lives? Or strip citizenship from Albertans born in Ontario? Seems unlikely to me, but you could make the case.
If the whole argument is "Ottawa will retaliate lawlessly and crush us", go ahead and make it.
As soon as some "credible" figures support AB secession, it's all over. The strategy of "scoff and vilify" is very risky. Better to actually discuss the issues.
The idea that Albertans could claim independence and yet keep Canadian citizenship is hilarious. What reason does Canada have to allow Albertans to have their cake and eat it too??
Everyone born in Canada is a Canadian citizen, which includes most current Albertans. The Supreme Court regularly renders decisions extending citizenship. Would the government revoke citizenship from people born in Alberta resident in Ontario? We have never done that with any other foreign country. Maybe we will just intern them, like Japanese-Canadians in WW2. Or would they revoke citizenship for people born in Ontario resident in Alberta? What about people who immigrated to Canada from India and acquired Canadian citizenship while living in Alberta? Would we strip them of their citizenship? Would we do it retroactively, so people now dead who were born in Alberta are no longer Canadians? Or would that depend on where they were buried? Would we ban dual Alberta/Canadian citizenship, alone of all the countries in the world?
Sure, newborn Albertans wouldn't have Canadian citizenship going forward, but they aren't voting in a referendum.
Yes. Separatists are electing to LEAVE the country. You lose your rights as Canadians in that moment.
Canada should strip Albertans, all of them, of their citizenship if they do choose to separate.
Have a grace period for those who want to stay in Canada to move elsewhere in the country. Maybe some kind of support can be offered. I don’t know.
But it’s in or out guys. You can’t have it both ways.
Unlikely. We are still at the "scoff and vilify" stage of the Alberta secession debate, mainly because the only argument against secession is status quo bias/bogeyman invocation. Albertans are disliked by most of their "fellow Canadians" and their foreign trade is impeded as much as we can get away with.
That’s exactly the nonsense answer that avoids all the very real problems discussed in this podcast.
When you claim to know the minds of most Canadians you have no credibility. None of the fellow Canadians I know dislike Albertans.
Where do you live? In fairness, I am talking mainly about older people in Toronto - the ones who actually run the country.
You're not doing well on the crediblity scale here :-)
I'm an older person who lives in the GTA & most of the people I know are older people who live in the GTA. And last I looked none of us were running the country :-)
The polling results of the ruling party say otherwise.
This was interesting. I don't have a dog in this fight, but I still found it interesting to listen to. ;-)
I can't explain Lukaszyck's motivation beyond prolonging his grudge against the UCP and a desire to remain a public figure. The Forever Canadian petition is a stunt responding to another stunt.
Totally agree. This is just another attempt by TL to stay relevant and appear to be representative of a brand that he lost a long time ago with the public.
Organizing this is a lot better than sitting on the couch and complaining that the separatists are getting a free open lane. I give him full marks for doing this. Interesting that Jason Kenney thought no one could ever get 300,000 signatures. If this petition succeeds it's a pretty loud and clear statement from people of Alberta.
I disagree. It is a petition to support the status quo. It won't quell the dissatisfaction with Ottawa, which is the symbolic objective of separatism. Ideally, the separation petition falls just short and Ottawa hate finds a more constructive tact.
A petition to say "don't change until we decide to change" is a pretty silly concept.
Great discussion, would be very interesting to discover where the funds are coming from to support the separatists actions!
One would think that an individual with his political experience would consider all possible outcomes. If politics is a game of chess, this is no Grand Master.
The Forever referendum provides a safe opportunity for protest. Voting "No" eggs Confederation but poses no real risk, unlike the referendum on sovereignty that comes with the requisite uncertainty.
Jen, a great wide ranging interview. I suspect that the majority of Albertans are, like Thomas, looking for the "reasonable centre" in policy that is beholden neither to American funded, Smith supported separatists, or the eastern Canada hardcore ideologically driven left wing of the NDP.
Thomas has always, in my interactions with him during our mutual days in government, been one of those people who makes sure he is fully briefed and engaged on the file under consideration. That focus will make this a successful effort and one that I am excited to assist with!
These types of petitions are regularly used to harvest lists for future fundraising. In this case for the Alberta NDP who Thomas admits to voting for. No one considers him a conservative in Alberta, not even the NDP.
Nevertheless, what this petition helps doing is code Canadian nationalism as left wing and separatism as right wing. The Alberta left are centralizing nationalists because they are Ottawa as a "civilizing force" against "those Yahoo's" and will protect them against those populist Americans.
As for Lukaszuk, he is very light on reasons for a united Canada beyond "it's too scary."
Thomas sounds like someone telling their spouse that they will never survive by themselves if they leave the marriage.
Excellent interview. I wish Alberta had more leaders like Lukaszuk and fewer like Smith. That the separatist movement has cultivated the likes of the latter is telling.
Good questions, Jen, and Thomas Lukaszuk clearly explained the process and reasons for the petition he initiated.
Thank you…
Where I find common cause with Mr. Lucaszuk is in his refusal to choose between two loaded dinner plates (UCP & NDP), both laden with relatively palatable, edible meals, but horribly over-seasoned with both fresh & dried manure so as to make choosing either to eat nearly impossible. That's where Mr. Lucaszuk finds himself, as do I.
We really do need a third voting choice in Alberta that does not simply split the so-called 'right-wing' vote (as Premier Smith obviously fears) but rather captures enough sensible-centrist people currently voting NDP or UCP toward the centrist alternative to form a majority, or at least a sizeable minority, in the next provincial election, leaving the remaining NDP and UCP caucuses as rump 'consciences' to the left and right. Perhaps that can be the Alberta Party, now rebranding itself as the new (old) Progressive Conservative Party? Not yet, but in time, perhaps?
Bravo on bringing on Mr. Lucaszuk for the long-form interview - he is much more coherent in that setting than he comes across on his social media feed, which often does not flatter him. He may not be the best leader for a 'third-way' party in Alberta, but he certainly would be valuable as an adviser to them in crafting policy & platform, given his past experience. His hijacking of the separatist referendum 'July 4th' strategy underlies his superior understanding of the rule of law, and made the Alberta sovereignist-republican crowd look amateurish in contrast.