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Roy Brander's avatar

An excellent and needed article, and let me throw in a backpat for the writer and The Line in publishing: I'm happy to see a fellow engineer writing, and from a engineer's ("technocrat") perspective where you talk about the underlying problem, not about the politicians. This isn't really a right/left issue, or at least has equal right/left aspects. (Renters, left: Landlords, right)

I just have some data to show about Calgary, where I was a municipal engineer for over 25 years. I left with a bunch of public data and the ability to show it as maps (my job required a million-dollar software package from ESRI in the 90s, now it can be done with free software). At my web site, an image:

http://brander.ca/CalgaryC21.png

...which shows 2018 data on residential-only water services pipes, restricted to installs after Y2K. You plainly see all the 90,000 single-family detached new houses around the edge of the city, with some red dots for streets with duplexes and triplexes.

But you also see something in Calgary you don't in Vancouver: as our housing prices rose, tens of thousands of infills were done, creating thousands of blue and red dots in the middle of town. You can see over half are red, for duplexes/triplexes. (Also, many blue ones are still half-lot-wide infills, just having their own separate water service, an extra $10K).

I gather Vancouver just forbids this. No town should. The "inner city" of Calgary has whole blocks that have doubled the population, because they're mostly infills. Pretty hard to resist a guy offering $600K for your 1940s 800 sf knock-down, who outbid the prospective monster-home builder because he can sell both infills for $600K each.

The ability to endlessly grow outward (which is still most of Calgary's new construction, to be sure) isn't the only reason that Calgary prices are, relatively, sane.

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Russil Wvong's avatar

I thought the recent MacPhail Report on housing in BC was excellent. It diagnoses the main problem as being "supply responsiveness" - that is, we're much slower at adding housing than we are at adding jobs.

https://engage.gov.bc.ca/housingaffordability/

It sounds like the main actor here needs to be the provincial government stepping in to override local-government bottlenecks, e.g. setting time limits on approvals.

Would public opinion support this kind of intervention? In Vancouver it seems like the large majority favour more housing, with only about 20% opposed to six-storey apartment buildings in their neighbourhoods. Even people who are homeowners are worried about where their kids are going to live.

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Release_HousingVAN_21Jun2019.pdf

One area where more federal money would help: the MacPhail Report also recommends having the federal government provide more funding for non-profit housing.

A particularly interesting observation from the report is that incentives for local governments are backwards, because they benefit directly from high land prices: whenever they rezone land for a project, they negotiate to take about 75% of the increase in land value. So if the City of Vancouver were to do a mass rezoning - say allowing six-storey apartment buildings within 1 km of SkyTrain stations - they'd be giving away a huge source of funding.

https://twitter.com/thenatehawkins/status/1411832869559799808

One suggestion to tackle this incentive problem, from Thomas Davidoff and Tsur Somerville, is to have the city auction off density rights separately. This would be faster, simpler, and more transparent than the current slow, project-by-project negotiation process.

https://engage.gov.bc.ca/app/uploads/sites/121/2021/06/Economics-of-CACs.pdf

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