Rob Breakenridge: This is a huge win for Smith. Let's see if she takes it

Guilbeault quitting is by itself a pretty strong sign that Alberta has scored a good deal.

By: Rob Breakenridge

It’s hard to imagine how Thursday could have unfolded much better for Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, but some late-breaking news out of Ottawa that afternoon provided a bit of a cherry on top to her big day. The question, now, is whether Alberta can take “yes” for an answer.

But let’s talk about Smith’s great day first: the signing of the Alberta-Ottawa memorandum of understanding (MOU) cast aside two signature Trudeau-era environmental policies and paved the way for a major new pipeline project (though obstacles remain there, including B.C. resistance and needing a commercial partner). Specifically, Alberta and Ottawa have agreed that a new pipeline to the west coast would be considered “a project of national interest.” That is contingent on the Pathways carbon capture project moving forward and Alberta agreeing to stricter industrial carbon pricing. Alberta will also be exempt from the federal Clean Electricity Regulations and the oil and gas emissions cap will no longer be applied. There is also a commitment of “needed adjustments” to the west-coast-tanker ban, so as not to be an obstacle for a new pipeline.

This is a comprehensive and hugely significant agreement.

But the day wasn’t over. In direct response to the MOU, Steven Guilbeault resigned from Mark Carney’s cabinet, explaining in a letter that he could not stay in cabinet while Carney reverses so many of Justin Trudeau’s accomplishments on the climate file. Seeing the back of Guilbeault was a longstanding wish of the premier’s — and many other Albertans.

This is more than just petty personal politics. Guilbeault was seen as the point man for all the Trudeau-era environmental initiatives, and his resignation may actually turn out to be a powerful selling point for Smith as she attempts to convince any remaining skeptics in her base that this MOU is the real deal. What further proof is needed that this represents a major break from the policies and priorities of Carney’s predecessor?

The political ramifications of this will be huge. Alberta got most of what it was looking for here, and so this is a big win for the premier.

Is it enough of a win, though, for her to now retire her combative posturing toward Ottawa? There’s no doubt that any Alberta premier can and probably always will use Ottawa to deflect and distract from internal issues. But Carney has gone about as far as he could with this MOU, and probably further than many of his own party wanted or would have guessed. He’s not doing it out of charity.

This isn’t a zero-sum game. There is national benefit to be derived from what Alberta and Ottawa have agreed to, and arguably even a political upside for the prime minister, too, given the broad national support for a new export pipeline. In other words, Carney seems to actually mean it, and Guilbeault heading for the door makes that case even stronger.

It will be hard for Smith to pretend otherwise. Besides, she has her own interests in calming things down, at least for a little while. This week’s announcements have surely taken much of the wind out of the sails of the Alberta separatist movement, and Smith might be content to coast on that for a little while and focus on other pressing matters closer to home.

There will no doubt be voices inside Alberta, and even inside Smith’s party, who say that this MOU is too little, too late, or that it doesn’t make up for years of bad policy and mistreatment. Given the concessions won by Alberta, though, it will be much harder to credibly argue to the rest of the country that this province is being treated unfairly.

And given the extent to which the premier is celebrating this agreement — and declaring this to be a “new beginning” and “a new relationship” — it will be difficult for her to now argue that there are major unresolved irritants between Alberta and Ottawa.

So much of Smith’s political brand has been wrapped up in the idea of fighting the feds and embracing the role of Alberta’s defender. The potential impact of the removal of that element from Alberta politics cannot be overstated. The entire Alberta Next process, for example, likely would not have occurred if an agreement like this had existed or seemed imminent. It will be interesting to see if the premier still thinks there’s a need to pursue major changes in the Alberta-Ottawa relationship, such as a withdrawal from the Canada Pension Plan

Now, of course, this deal, in many ways, represents only the end of the beginning. There is still much heavy lifting to do and success can only come through the continued commitment and partnership of both Alberta and the federal government. It is not out of the question that one or both sides could screw this all up. It’s also not impossible to imagine a scenario where the ability to blame the other side for botching this agreement offers a real political temptation.

It is still an unfortunate commentary on our status quo that even an exhaustive agreement such as this, backed by the Building Canada Act and the Major Projects Office, still only gets us to “maybe”— “probably,” at best — on a new export pipeline being completed. And clearly any such project is still years away.

But there’s a path here to accomplish something significant; something that will yield tremendous economic benefits and send an important signal that other investments in other significant projects are worthwhile and fruitful. We’ll see if these two leaders can stay on that path.

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer and host of The Line: Alberta Podcast. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com

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