The fact that the incumbent NDP are in attack mode is all we really need to know. For some reason, they don’t feel comfortable campaigning on their record. This is absolutely a policy election, and a lot of people are voting against policies put in place by the NDP. Apparently, rampant addiction, hospital closures and pro-Hamas sympathies aren’t as popular as they thought they were. I am not sure who will win this election, but I hope it’s not the NDP. I don’t know what to expect from a Conservative government, but if we don’t like it, we can always vote against it next time 😉
I am one of those voters who is basically voting to get the NDP out of office more than voting for the Conservatives. I also am very annoyed that the Eby campaign has outright lied about what Rustad has in his platform (from saying he is bringing back a bridge toll to a healthcare budget cut) So, I have been willing to hold my nose on the past comments and views from some of their candidates (which I may perhaps regret as this is a very untested group with minimal infrastructure and poor vetting practices and may not be good at actual governance). Objectively, I think a 4 year stint as opposition would be healthy for the Conservatives to build up their party and phase out the bad apples they are likely to keep finding. But, for a lot of poeple, it is URGENT to get Eby out of office. Its really something to compare various metrics from when he took over until now and that it happened in a mere couple of years. My feeling is the NDP will win the most seats either as a tiny majority or as a minority needing a couple of independents to shore them up. Rustad, when you hear him talk, is a likeable relatable fellow and that weighs heavily in his favour so maybe that pushes him over the line.
"Objectively, I think a 4 year stint as opposition would be healthy for the Conservatives to build up their party and phase out the bad apples they are likely to keep finding. "
Exactly.
Post-Covid, voters are unhappy about Covid disruptions, including both the handling of the pandemic and post-Covid aftershocks like housing costs and public disorder. A lot of incumbent leaders have stepped down or been defeated, whether left or right: Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand, Scott Morrison in Australia, Jason Kenney in Alberta, Brian Pallister in Manitoba, Rishi Sunak in the UK, Joe Biden in the US. If Eby's aggressive problem-solving approach wins out, he'll be bucking a strong trend.
I don't see Eby having a problem-solving approach. I went into the election not really having much of an opinion of Eby himself but feeling the ramifications of some of his policies. But during the campaign period, he proved himself to be a sanctimonious liar who also failed to take a stand against antisemitic leanings in his party. Happy to take a chance on someone else.
Agree with everything you said. I would add that a 4 year stint in opposition would be very healthy for the NDP as well, to rethink their crazy policy positions implemented under Eby. I say that as somebody who voted for John Horgan, twice!
yes but with a different leader. Eby took a solid NDP administration and has trashed it in such a short period of time. I am still baffled why he took what Horgan gave him and messed with it so much.
That’s the sad thing about modern politics, we all vote against something because no one offers us anything substantial to vote for! I guess we’re all more than a little jaded by the numerous broken promises and lack of leadership.
I once campaigned for Eby as I thought he was a decent human being. Was I ever wrong. He is an autocratic idealogue who only carers to certain groups and surrounds himself with sycophants who agree with everything he says. His American style politics, his underhanded manoveres and the lies he has spewed against the Conservatives have completely turned me odd the NDP, particularly when he refuses to discuss his own abysmal record.
This is very well said. I have talked to my dad a lot about this election and we both agree we were stunned at how Eby has behaved as we had a much different impression of him three years ago.
The NDP theme seems to be "do you really want to risk going with someone else?". For someone who has a roof over their head and can go out to dinner occasionally this may work. For someone in a tent or who can't get medical help, not so much. Like the political left in Ontario, the urban vote decides who gets in but that seems to be up for grabs.
According to Elections BC 2024 - 1,001,331 people have voted in advanced polls prior to Oct 19 out of possible 3,550,017 eligible voters - or 28% of the electorate. The prior record was in 2020 with 669,215 advanced votes (many mail in as it was an unnecessary EARLY election in the midst of a pandemic). Rob notes 778,000 early votes for 2024, sloppy reporting.
Rob also notes that “scandal after scandal” has plagued the BC Conservative Party. The majority of these “scandals” are based on a dossier document compiled by the, now defunct, BC United (formally BC Liberal Party) and leaked on X/Twitter by journalist Jas Johal (formally a BC Liberal MLA 2017-2020, now BC NDP online warrior/writing hack); most of the “scandals”, including the one noted in this article about Palestinians, are from 10 year old private group Facebook comments taken entirely out of context. The NDP headquarters has utilized this dossier daily to mount coordinated attacks on Conservative candidates across the province based primarily on ancient news and petty, trivial, ad hominem, personal smears to scare folks into voting for them. Major fear campaign.
Also, this article doesn’t note that the BC NDP has also spent the past 2 weeks attempting to sue Elections BC (our non-partisan elections oversight org), to have the Conservative Party’s name changed/struck from ballots because it doesn’t specifically note BC affiliation and voters may confuse it with the federal Conservative Party (in a provincial election because they think we’re stupid). They sought BC Supreme Court intervention on this matter including AFTER the writ had dropped, ballots already printed, mail in voting already begun. And while having BC NDP counterparts from the federal NDP actively campaigning for and endorsing BC NDP candidates (because they’re actually the same party) - Jagmeet Singh himself was on the ground door knocking this week!
I agree that it’s been a rough campaign with much mud slinging. It truly could go either way here today.
Polls have consistently had the NDP and Conservatives neck and neck across the province - with predictable results, blue throughout the interior ridings, orange in urban Vancouver/Victoria, and suburbs a tossup.
Interesting too how clearly age demographics have aligned this election - the majority of +65 prefer the status quo NDP, while all other younger age groups (18-35, 35-50, 50-65) are majority voting the BC Conservatives. Has this age shift ever happened in Canada before does anyone know?
If the NDP wins either a majority or near majority, I think the right really have to view it as a lost opportunity. There was a perfect storm of mistakes and a strong push for a change of government.
In 4 years, who knows where things might stand. There might be a not so popular federal conservative government, inflation might be lower, etc. There might be a more centrist party that replaces BC united.
Certainly events played a role in having a less than smooth vetting process, but it's also fair to say the election timing was well known.
Last point, thanks to all those who ran for office, whatever your party .
They have been much better at keeping that stuff off of the internet it seems, but we have a pretty good sense of some of the problematic views in the party.
The fact that the incumbent NDP are in attack mode is all we really need to know. For some reason, they don’t feel comfortable campaigning on their record. This is absolutely a policy election, and a lot of people are voting against policies put in place by the NDP. Apparently, rampant addiction, hospital closures and pro-Hamas sympathies aren’t as popular as they thought they were. I am not sure who will win this election, but I hope it’s not the NDP. I don’t know what to expect from a Conservative government, but if we don’t like it, we can always vote against it next time 😉
I am one of those voters who is basically voting to get the NDP out of office more than voting for the Conservatives. I also am very annoyed that the Eby campaign has outright lied about what Rustad has in his platform (from saying he is bringing back a bridge toll to a healthcare budget cut) So, I have been willing to hold my nose on the past comments and views from some of their candidates (which I may perhaps regret as this is a very untested group with minimal infrastructure and poor vetting practices and may not be good at actual governance). Objectively, I think a 4 year stint as opposition would be healthy for the Conservatives to build up their party and phase out the bad apples they are likely to keep finding. But, for a lot of poeple, it is URGENT to get Eby out of office. Its really something to compare various metrics from when he took over until now and that it happened in a mere couple of years. My feeling is the NDP will win the most seats either as a tiny majority or as a minority needing a couple of independents to shore them up. Rustad, when you hear him talk, is a likeable relatable fellow and that weighs heavily in his favour so maybe that pushes him over the line.
But we shall see!
"Objectively, I think a 4 year stint as opposition would be healthy for the Conservatives to build up their party and phase out the bad apples they are likely to keep finding. "
Exactly.
Post-Covid, voters are unhappy about Covid disruptions, including both the handling of the pandemic and post-Covid aftershocks like housing costs and public disorder. A lot of incumbent leaders have stepped down or been defeated, whether left or right: Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand, Scott Morrison in Australia, Jason Kenney in Alberta, Brian Pallister in Manitoba, Rishi Sunak in the UK, Joe Biden in the US. If Eby's aggressive problem-solving approach wins out, he'll be bucking a strong trend.
I don't see Eby having a problem-solving approach. I went into the election not really having much of an opinion of Eby himself but feeling the ramifications of some of his policies. But during the campaign period, he proved himself to be a sanctimonious liar who also failed to take a stand against antisemitic leanings in his party. Happy to take a chance on someone else.
Agree with everything you said. I would add that a 4 year stint in opposition would be very healthy for the NDP as well, to rethink their crazy policy positions implemented under Eby. I say that as somebody who voted for John Horgan, twice!
yes but with a different leader. Eby took a solid NDP administration and has trashed it in such a short period of time. I am still baffled why he took what Horgan gave him and messed with it so much.
That’s the sad thing about modern politics, we all vote against something because no one offers us anything substantial to vote for! I guess we’re all more than a little jaded by the numerous broken promises and lack of leadership.
G&G, will there be coverage of the Sask election too?
I once campaigned for Eby as I thought he was a decent human being. Was I ever wrong. He is an autocratic idealogue who only carers to certain groups and surrounds himself with sycophants who agree with everything he says. His American style politics, his underhanded manoveres and the lies he has spewed against the Conservatives have completely turned me odd the NDP, particularly when he refuses to discuss his own abysmal record.
This is very well said. I have talked to my dad a lot about this election and we both agree we were stunned at how Eby has behaved as we had a much different impression of him three years ago.
Eby is further left than Horgan. Rustad is further right than Falcon. Makes it interesting.
or farther... whatever!
Great article. Nice to see coverage of BC politics
The NDP theme seems to be "do you really want to risk going with someone else?". For someone who has a roof over their head and can go out to dinner occasionally this may work. For someone in a tent or who can't get medical help, not so much. Like the political left in Ontario, the urban vote decides who gets in but that seems to be up for grabs.
An excellent summary of the current state of BC politics. Thanks.
Hmm, a few points:
According to Elections BC 2024 - 1,001,331 people have voted in advanced polls prior to Oct 19 out of possible 3,550,017 eligible voters - or 28% of the electorate. The prior record was in 2020 with 669,215 advanced votes (many mail in as it was an unnecessary EARLY election in the midst of a pandemic). Rob notes 778,000 early votes for 2024, sloppy reporting.
Rob also notes that “scandal after scandal” has plagued the BC Conservative Party. The majority of these “scandals” are based on a dossier document compiled by the, now defunct, BC United (formally BC Liberal Party) and leaked on X/Twitter by journalist Jas Johal (formally a BC Liberal MLA 2017-2020, now BC NDP online warrior/writing hack); most of the “scandals”, including the one noted in this article about Palestinians, are from 10 year old private group Facebook comments taken entirely out of context. The NDP headquarters has utilized this dossier daily to mount coordinated attacks on Conservative candidates across the province based primarily on ancient news and petty, trivial, ad hominem, personal smears to scare folks into voting for them. Major fear campaign.
Also, this article doesn’t note that the BC NDP has also spent the past 2 weeks attempting to sue Elections BC (our non-partisan elections oversight org), to have the Conservative Party’s name changed/struck from ballots because it doesn’t specifically note BC affiliation and voters may confuse it with the federal Conservative Party (in a provincial election because they think we’re stupid). They sought BC Supreme Court intervention on this matter including AFTER the writ had dropped, ballots already printed, mail in voting already begun. And while having BC NDP counterparts from the federal NDP actively campaigning for and endorsing BC NDP candidates (because they’re actually the same party) - Jagmeet Singh himself was on the ground door knocking this week!
I agree that it’s been a rough campaign with much mud slinging. It truly could go either way here today.
Polls have consistently had the NDP and Conservatives neck and neck across the province - with predictable results, blue throughout the interior ridings, orange in urban Vancouver/Victoria, and suburbs a tossup.
Interesting too how clearly age demographics have aligned this election - the majority of +65 prefer the status quo NDP, while all other younger age groups (18-35, 35-50, 50-65) are majority voting the BC Conservatives. Has this age shift ever happened in Canada before does anyone know?
If the NDP wins either a majority or near majority, I think the right really have to view it as a lost opportunity. There was a perfect storm of mistakes and a strong push for a change of government.
In 4 years, who knows where things might stand. There might be a not so popular federal conservative government, inflation might be lower, etc. There might be a more centrist party that replaces BC united.
Certainly events played a role in having a less than smooth vetting process, but it's also fair to say the election timing was well known.
Last point, thanks to all those who ran for office, whatever your party .
Surely the fine folk running around in NDP clothing must have made the odd off putting remark too.
They have been much better at keeping that stuff off of the internet it seems, but we have a pretty good sense of some of the problematic views in the party.