Rob Shaw: On the campaign trail, B.C. at a tipping point
Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre spent recently visited two very different British Columbias
By: Rob Shaw
VICTORIA — Liberal leader Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre recently visited two very different British Columbias as their campaigns zeroed in on distinct groups of voters in this deeply divided province.
Poilievre on Monday referenced the massive LNG Canada natural gas facilities in Kitimat while meeting workers in nearby Terrance and talking up natural resource jobs. At the same time, Carney toured leafy urban Victoria, discussing national park expansion and aid for seniors at a hipster apple cidery.
They might as well have been on two different planets.
The Liberals are hoping to appeal to urbanites, boomers and environmentalists to steal away seats from the NDP and Greens on South Vancouver Island and the core of Metro Vancouver. The Conservatives, meanwhile, are pursuing blue-collar families in smaller communities pretty much everywhere else in B.C.
The divide splits the province’s 43 seats, with at least 19 considered rural. There are a handful of hard-fought swing suburban ridings. And the federal NDP’s 12 seats, which run the gamut of rural and urban B.C., are also up for grabs as that party’s fortunes continue to collapse.
Poilievre has been a frequent visitor to B.C.’s rural ridings since he became party leader in 2022, visiting mills, factories and resource projects that, in the past, skewed New Democrat. He’s travelled to British Columbia 19 times in three years, touring 10 sawmills, log sorting facilities, forestry offices or lumber yards in rural towns such as Campbell River, Grand Forks, Penticton, Trail, Castlegar and Powell River.
Conservatives have held more than 250 events in 40 municipalities, attempting to slowly court disaffected workers, union leaders and what, a decade ago, would have been the working-class base of the federal NDP, whose members are employed in forestry, mining and oil and gas.
“It now takes 17 years to get a project in mining approved, nearly 25 per cent longer than in Australia and 40 per cent longer than the States,” Poilievre said at his event Monday, referencing the enormous $40 billion LNG Canada export terminal, which employed more than 65,000 workers over six years of construction.
“This was by design. Liberals don't like these projects, their radical environmental ideology prevents it from happening. We should be selling our resources to the world, breaking dependence on (Russian president Vladimir) Putin and other foreign dictators, and going around the Americans.
“Canada's Canadian oil and clean natural gas should be displacing coal and reducing emissions worldwide.”
Carney, by contrast, used his trip to the B.C. capital to highlight the Liberal commitment to protect 30 per cent of land and water in Canada by 2030.
“We as Canadians value sustainability in all of its forms,” he said, at an apple orchard on the Saanich Peninsula. “We must earn our right to take from the environment while always respecting and nourishing it, and that's why a new Liberal government will pursue a bold new nature strategy with smart approaches to preserve our natural habitat and to use our finite financial resources to maximum impact.”
The Liberals hope to win urban New Democrats, eco-conscious Greens and older voters on southern Vancouver Island, as well as in swing suburban ridings in Metro Vancouver. The political divide between rural and urban British Columbia is familiar territory for provincial political parties. Since 2017, the BC NDP has dominated population-rich Metro Vancouver, its suburbs, and most of Vancouver Island, while centre-right parties have held parts of Surrey, the Fraser Valley, the interior, north and some more rural Island communities. The division has resulted in a political near-stalemate provincially, with bare majorities or co-operative deals required to keep the NDP functionally in power in 2017 and 2024.
The federal Liberals continue to seek alignment with the voter bloc of the BC NDP, a strategy that former prime minister Justin Trudeau employed in the last election by matching the provincial party’s $10-a-day child care and urban transit promises.
Carney has already picked up NDP Premier David Eby’s unofficial endorsement, appearing at the legislature with Eby on Monday where the two promised to work hand-in-hand on responding to U.S. President Donald Trump. That came after Eby gave federal NDP Jagmeet Singh a half-hearted endorsement last week, encouraging voters only to attempt to re-elect incumbent federal New Democrats.
Poilievre, meanwhile, is drafting behind the success of the BC Conservatives, who, ironically, drafted behind the federal party’s high polling last October to surge to almost defeat the BC NDP. The two parties aren’t technically affiliated. But they both target the same type of small-town voter concerned about drug policies, rural hospital closures, taxes and social issues.
On Sunday in Penticton, Poilievre sharpened his message by targeting “the out of control spending in Ottawa” contrasted with federal Liberal environmental policies that prevent pipelines and natural resource jobs with “their keep it in the ground ideology.” The only way to get out from under the thumb of Americans is to harness Canada’s natural resources and sell them to other countries, he said.
“That means unleashing our mighty resource sector, to build pipelines, mines, mills, factories, LNG plants,” said Poilievre.
The line earned him a standing ovation. In urban Vancouver, he’d likely hear crickets followed by murmurs of concern over protecting old growth trees and minimizing marine tanker traffic.
Two different British Columbias, and two valuable pools of voters for party leaders to battle for with less than three weeks to go.
Rob Shaw has spent more than 17 years covering B.C. politics. He now reports for CHEK News out of Victoria. He’s the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast and YouTube show Political Capital, and the weekly political correspondent for CBC Radio’s All Points West and Radio West programs. You can reach him at rob@robshawnews.com.
*Correction: Your Line editor — we won’t say which one — screwed up. Poilievre visited an LNG facility in Terrace, not Kitimat. Writer Rob Shaw bears no blame for the mistake.
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Excellent synopsis Rob of this past week of CPC & LPC campaigning in BC urban and rural: “They might as well have been on two different planets.”
I’m in one of the incumbent BC ridings that NDP Premier Eby half heartedly endorsed for NDP support: Similkameen-South Okanagan-West Kootenay.
A few days ago, I had the privilege of a Halifax NS person arguing to me on X that in my riding the Liberals will beat the NDP because that’s what a national poll showed (I think Canada 338 broken down to riding specific projections).
I tried to explain that BC is weird: outside of super wealthy urban areas (West Van, North Van, Van Central, White Rock), the Liberals are not competitive here. Our split is all NDP and Conservative in BC. The last time Vancouver Island ridings (Victoria, Nanaimo, etc) elected a Liberal was in 2008. I mean, last year pre-provincial Fall election, our long-standing prov. party the BC Liberals actually tried to completely disassociate itself from the feds by changing their name to BC United (it didn’t work, they folded entirely, and were consumed by the BC Conservatives before election).
In 2021, the Liberals came in 3rd by popular vote here (CPC 33%, NDP 29%, LPC 26%, Green5%).
BC is its own phenomenon politically.
Something too, that I think the national poll projections miss entirely, is the hyperlocal of politics, particularly in rural BC ridings. It matters here who the local candidates are and what they’ve specifically contributed to their community. In our riding, the newly placed Liberal candidate is an Indigenous leader, but from Enderby (out of riding) and not from our local Band (PIB). She will not be elected and is merely a placeholder for the LPC - they know this and have historically parachuted in a candidate, because they’re NOT competitive here. The NDP are running a well know figure (assistant to prior incumbent) and the CPC are running a long-time Penticton city councilwoman. Both good options for an area that split NDP39%, CPC38%, LPC13% in the federal 2021 election.
I’m interested to see how the leaders’ BC campaign choices play out in terms of votes and seats. Will the Liberals pick up seats on the Island from the NDP (as they obviously hope to do by campaigning in Vic)? Will the Conservatives win closely contested seats from the Interior and North like mine in Pen?
Two different planets indeed!
Good article Rob but you missed the elephant in the room. BC's $14 billion deficit under the NDP. This is before the lumber duties kick in. BC is in serious financial danger. 4 downgrades this year, with Moody's outlook described as "bleak". Could describe Canada if the leftwing keeps power in Canada. The article perfectly describes the differences between the leaders.