Scott Stinson: Have we forgotten the last Liberal majority already?

Canadian voters couldn't wait to punt them from office not that long ago, but now Mark Carney is just three by-elections away from a decisive edge in Parliament

By: Scott Stinson

It is often the case that political leaders wait as long as they can before calling a by-election, for the simple reason that by-elections are, to use a technical term, funky.

There’s little to gain for the ruling party, voters often see them as an opportunity for a low-risk protest vote, and they give the opposition parties a chance for media coverage that they often struggle to get.

This is why leaders will give it most of the allowable six months before gritting their teeth and doing it. Fine, OK, let’s just get this thing out of the way.

But not so Mark Carney. The prime minister can barely wait to hold by-elections, for the simple reason that they could hand him a majority government. That prospect increased significantly on Tuesday night with the surprise news that Nunavut MP Lori Idlout has bailed on the NDP for the Liberal caucus. Now, if just two of the three contests called for April 13 — two Toronto ridings and one in Montreal — go into the Liberal column, Carney’s party will have 172 seats in the House of Commons, or a one-seat majority. If the Liberals get all three, the two-seat majority would mean they won’t have to rely on the Speaker to break tie votes.

Eighteen months ago we were all writing about how there was no such thing as safe Liberal seat anymore amid the Trudeau government’s death rattle. And now they are within reach of majority. Carney barely even needs to stretch for it.

Despite mentioning just a few sentences ago that by-elections are a little funky, I’m going to go ahead and say the two Toronto ridings, University-Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest, will go to Team Carney. Both are long-time Liberal seats that would be likely to remain red in normal times, but especially so with the prime minister enjoying boffo popularity ratings, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggling to convince neutrals that he’s not a jerk, and the NDP currently headless. (With apologies to interim leader Don Davies, who does indeed have a head.)

That leaves the Montreal riding of Terrebonne, which went to the Liberals in last year’s general election by the absolute wafer-thin margin of one vote. The Supreme Court annulled Tatiana Auguste’s victory last month due to errors with mail-in ballots, saying they effectively disenfranchised supporters of second-place candidate Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné of the Bloc Québécois.

So, if something bizarre happens and by-election wackiness keeps one of those Toronto seats out of the hands of the Liberals, that would mean the fate of the would-be Carney majority likely sits in the hands of the separatists. What a time to be alive.

Aside from the inherent comedy of the stability of a G7 country’s government hanging on the motivation of voters who don’t even want to be in that country, there is something just … wild … about the prospect of another Liberal majority in Ottawa. It’s the federal party that Canadians just can’t quit.

I covered the federal election in the spring of 2011, the one in which the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff crashed to third place in the House behind Stephen Harper’s triumphant Conservative majority and Jack Layton’s almost-as-triumphant NDP. The morning-after news conference with Ignatieff was as funereal as it was possible for such a thing to be, and almost all of the post-vote analysis was about the durability of the Harper coalition and the abject long-term prospects of the Liberals after Layton had done the unthinkable.

Then they elected that handsome young Trudeau fella as leader and a nation swooned.

You do not need me to remind you how things unfolded.

I’m not sure which part will ultimately be seen as more significant: the ease with which Justin Trudeau swept to power, or the degree to which his popularity unravelled so completely after a decade in charge.

Trudeau was such a spent force by the end of 2024, when he (very) grudgingly decided to step down, that those running to replace him practically tripped over themselves in their hurry to repudiate his signature policies like the consumer carbon tax. Poilievre, meanwhile, had been biding his time for a year as the PM-in-waiting, riding high in the polls with a seemingly insurmountable lead.

You still do not need me to remind you how things unfolded.

Not much more than a year later, Carney’s wins keep stacking up. He added three Conservative defectors to his caucus, the last of whom, Matt Jeneroux, first announced a retirement before deciding that in fact he wanted to spend less time with his family. Those floor-crossers were enough to put the Liberal majority in sight. The addition of Idlout to the team doesn’t just make the math easier, it gives Carney an extra shot of legitimacy now that he has brought over MPs from two parties.

And, seemingly day after day, another poll is released that suggests Carney’s popularity was not the result of a one-time new leader bump. A Nanos poll published this week had the Liberals with a yawning 13-point gap over the Conservatives, and a Liaison poll gave Carney a +33 net favourability rating, while Poilievre remains stuck at -18. Even more alarming for the Tories is that voters across all demographics have a positive impression of Carney: young, old, men, women, dads, teens, grandmas, dogs, cats, et cetera. Those cranky old guys at the golf driving range in a Tory ad during the last election, who were positively disgusted by the prospect of a Liberal government, would evidently be Carneyholics now.

It is stating the obvious to note that much of this can be attributed directly to the actions and words of Donald J. Trump. But it’s still striking how little else Carney has done to get Canadian voters to warm to him so much. He’s reflected the national mood by saying America can no longer be considered a trusted ally, but he’s also been careful not to rile up Trump too directly or too often. His elbows might be up, but only sparingly.

Carney has pledged to spend vast sums on big projects while making the Canadian economy less dependent on the United States, and he’s vowed to correct Trudeau-era mistakes on files like immigration and housing, but mostly his greatest success appears to be Guy Who Sometimes Makes Trump Mad. And also, Not Being Pierre Poilievre.

These two factors might just be enough to return the Liberals, a party that was moments away from being tossed out on its ear, to impregnable status once more. And without even having to sit on the sidelines for, like, a minute.

We’re really going to do this again, aren’t we?

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