It boggles my mind that neither the provincial Liberals nor NDP can get it together. Dougie has blown well past ex-PM Chrétien in the crony-corruption department. In the ordinary course of events, this would be enough to have gotten his party pushed out of office by now, and this would be a good thing for public accountability, and for democracy more broadly. And, er, probably for C/conservativism too.
ericanadian may be right in suggesting the federal Liberal Party has siphoned the best from the provincial Liberals. I'd add that the NDP appears to remain locked in a death spiral in which traditional NDPers and ultra-left ideologues choke one another to death.
But it's not so different in the provincial Conservative party, either. Party insiders might be content to keep winning elections, but Dougie's been alienating fiscal conservatives for a while, and eventually one of the other parties is going to get its act together. Then who will be clinging to official party status? It could well be the Conservatives.
I suspect the Liberal machine that kept the OLP afloat got siphoned off by the Federal Liberals and they’re left with the B team. I don’t think its coincidence that things started to collapse for the Ontario Liberals not long after the Federal Liberals took power. The Ontario Liberals last run started right about when things started to collapse for the Feds in the transition from Chretien to Martin.
I was President of the UWindsor during the Dalton years and campaigned in Essex for the late (and great) Bruce Crozier. I recall people at the doors hated Dalton. We’d knock and say we were with the Liberals, the person would say, “I’m not voting Liberal I don’t like Dalton, my vote is staying with Bruce.” So we got instructions to play down the Liberal, even took down any posters or images of Dalton in the office.
Commiserating post election with peers, I learned this was a common theme in many ridings during that election. In hindsight now I see that the OLP had a great many candidates and incumbents who were entrenched in their communities as leaders and champions. They’re link went beyond having a community base made up of a certain sought after demographic from the central campaign, they were former mayors (as in the case of Bruce) or aldermen or business leaders known for their charity within the public. And I really think that’s what’s missing in politics and especially in the Liberal party who have become drunk on identity politics. To the point they run their entire campaign, even how candidates are selected, by these narrow metrics that have been distilled by some formula into victory. It’s means that an individual candidate may have a very strong base from their own ethnic community, but broadly in the riding they are a nobody. It’s means that connection beyond the short here and now partisan spin is lost and voters respond in kind.
The quality of candidates is not a pivotal factor in the OLP's decline. A small minority of voters make their choices on the basis of the quality of local candidates, but the vast majority of voters make their decisions on the basis of Leader or central party messaging.
The OLP has become out of touch with the electorate because it has its head in the sand on what its own members think on public policy. The OLP has become a highly undemocratic political party, being one of the few major political parties to never empower its members or delegates to vote on policies.
The Progressive Conservatives, the ONDP, and the Ontario Greens all have policy plenaries at their respective conventions, despite their varying degrees of accessibility (though I cannot speak for Ontario's fringe other parties). Almost every major federal political party has policy plenaries, including the federal Liberals (even if they debate only about 20 policies every couple of years and the passed policies are easily ignored by the Prime Minister). To find any political party that is remotely mainstream and which never has policy votes amongst its members, you would find the OLP to only be in the same company as Maxime Bernier's People's Party!
I think if the NDP had popular policies brought forward by likeable (and sane) candidates then people would be willing to forgive. That people are still holding a grudge against the ONDP 30 years later is on the ONDP, not on Johnny and Jenny Public.
Yep people seem to have long memories in Ontario. Must be its Irish heritage. But I got a chuckle watching Doug Fraud trying to pour out a bottle of Crown Royal without removing the flow restrictor from the neck. Of course nobody in his undoubtedly million dollar team of advisers and event planners thought of it.
They're used to the good stuff, which typically only comes in 700-750ml bottles.
Rob, however, would have known that you can usually pull out the plastic pourer with your teeth. I doubt he could bring himself to waste that much booze though.
I remember puzzling over the McGuinty era: governments across the country had just battled their way out of crippling fiscal challenges, and here was a guy who *wasn't* taking the opportunity to improve Ontario's position for the future (which still seemed like a far more precarious place than Alberta or BC), but was spending like crazy and making claims like "Can't afford to do it? We can't afford NOT to do it!!" And despite the economic and fiscal woes of just a few years earlier, Ontarians lapped it up and granted his party a decade in power.
A lot of the problems Ontario has today can probably be placed squarely at feet of the McGuinty Liberals. Of course, by the time Katherine Wynne was left to face the music, a lot of those same Liberals had gone off to join the Trudeau government and pull the same act at the federal level - again with the support of Ontario voters who'd already been experiencing their governance at the provincial level.
It's not actually that surprising to see the Ontario Liberals languishing. They left a poor legacy for their decade in power. A lot of people remember that, although perhaps not enough (see Trudeau's victories in 2019 and 2021...) In other provinces, once-dominant parties have gone extinct when they've screwed up sufficiently. That was the fate of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, and the Saskatchewan Progressive Conservatives. Alberta and BC's Social Credit Parties both ended in a legacy of failure. In Ontario's case, though, let's not forget that the provincial NDP *also* has the fairly disastrous legacy of Bob Rae's government that they've spent decades living down, and Mike Harris was a millstone around the necks of the PCs as well.
When faced with a fiscal deficit, you can either cut spending, raise taxes, or just say yes to everything and borrow the difference. The third option makes you way more popular in the short term especially when coupled with gaslighting about how it's an "investment" and your opponents want austerity or tax-and-spend socialism.
And we've just let the exact same people do the exact same thing at the federal level for the last 10 years and probably at least four more. Better luck next time Ontario. Maybe when the boomers finally die in 30 years and/or the bond market decides it has had enough of Canada's foolishness.
That party has suffered institutional decline in the past decade and the instincts by some within the party have been to throw the Leaders under the bus for failing to overcome that - even as the rest of the OLP establishment remains virtually unchanged...
"not because they were great at governing the province, but because they were great at winning elections" writes Mr. Stinson.
Doesn’t that seem eerily familiar to the performance in Ottawa? Like the McGuinty/Wynne era, the Trudeau/Carney government got another blood transfusion of public support and defied incredible odds to stay in power.
Perhaps the biggest problem for the OLP is that the election winning people are currently working in Ottawa, and will stick around the halls of power until the Canadian public finally has enough. The day of reckoning was deferred but like Ms. Wynne found out, the federal Liberals are not enjoying any big honeymoon with the public and the mistakes are already piling up.
Though I also thought the OLP would have its act together by this point, I don't think we should be surprised by their poor showing(s) recently.
It is worth noting, for example, that Ontario had an OLP govt for 15 years after 2003. That means that the OPCs couldn't "get their act together" for 15 years. So this is not without recent precedent.
That said, the OLP have no one to blame but themselves for their current state. No one knew (or cared) who Bonnie Crombie is because she pushed policies that no one cared about. What was the OLP's signiture policy from last February? Here's a problem— I had to look it up just now. It was "fixing education" which may as well be, "making sure the sky remains blue". The rest of their policy was based around the idea of, "Getting the Basics Right". So basic competence. Their signiture policy in the "Donald Trump is going to burn our house down" election was— "we intend on getting the basics right!". Why is anyone shocked this fell flatter than Oxford County?
If the OLP (or ONDP, for that matter) wants to have any chance of forming a government in the foreseeable future they need two things—
1. A Conservative Govt in Ottawa to fight against
2. More importantly, they need to push transformational policies that will make people's lives quantifiably better. Improving education is great! But Canadians need shiny things in elections. Shoot for the moon, OLP, because status quo sure as heck isn't working.
Based on the last election, when Liberals and the NDP gave identical answers to every question, just merge and get it over with....not that Ontario will soon recover from Ford's disastrous graft.
It boggles my mind that neither the provincial Liberals nor NDP can get it together. Dougie has blown well past ex-PM Chrétien in the crony-corruption department. In the ordinary course of events, this would be enough to have gotten his party pushed out of office by now, and this would be a good thing for public accountability, and for democracy more broadly. And, er, probably for C/conservativism too.
ericanadian may be right in suggesting the federal Liberal Party has siphoned the best from the provincial Liberals. I'd add that the NDP appears to remain locked in a death spiral in which traditional NDPers and ultra-left ideologues choke one another to death.
But it's not so different in the provincial Conservative party, either. Party insiders might be content to keep winning elections, but Dougie's been alienating fiscal conservatives for a while, and eventually one of the other parties is going to get its act together. Then who will be clinging to official party status? It could well be the Conservatives.
Half the people voted for Ford because they thought he was Bill Davis. The other half thought he was Donald Trump.
Only half kidding ...
I suspect the Liberal machine that kept the OLP afloat got siphoned off by the Federal Liberals and they’re left with the B team. I don’t think its coincidence that things started to collapse for the Ontario Liberals not long after the Federal Liberals took power. The Ontario Liberals last run started right about when things started to collapse for the Feds in the transition from Chretien to Martin.
I was President of the UWindsor during the Dalton years and campaigned in Essex for the late (and great) Bruce Crozier. I recall people at the doors hated Dalton. We’d knock and say we were with the Liberals, the person would say, “I’m not voting Liberal I don’t like Dalton, my vote is staying with Bruce.” So we got instructions to play down the Liberal, even took down any posters or images of Dalton in the office.
Commiserating post election with peers, I learned this was a common theme in many ridings during that election. In hindsight now I see that the OLP had a great many candidates and incumbents who were entrenched in their communities as leaders and champions. They’re link went beyond having a community base made up of a certain sought after demographic from the central campaign, they were former mayors (as in the case of Bruce) or aldermen or business leaders known for their charity within the public. And I really think that’s what’s missing in politics and especially in the Liberal party who have become drunk on identity politics. To the point they run their entire campaign, even how candidates are selected, by these narrow metrics that have been distilled by some formula into victory. It’s means that an individual candidate may have a very strong base from their own ethnic community, but broadly in the riding they are a nobody. It’s means that connection beyond the short here and now partisan spin is lost and voters respond in kind.
The quality of candidates is not a pivotal factor in the OLP's decline. A small minority of voters make their choices on the basis of the quality of local candidates, but the vast majority of voters make their decisions on the basis of Leader or central party messaging.
The OLP has become out of touch with the electorate because it has its head in the sand on what its own members think on public policy. The OLP has become a highly undemocratic political party, being one of the few major political parties to never empower its members or delegates to vote on policies.
How do you think it compares in that regard to the other Ontario and all Federal parties?
The Progressive Conservatives, the ONDP, and the Ontario Greens all have policy plenaries at their respective conventions, despite their varying degrees of accessibility (though I cannot speak for Ontario's fringe other parties). Almost every major federal political party has policy plenaries, including the federal Liberals (even if they debate only about 20 policies every couple of years and the passed policies are easily ignored by the Prime Minister). To find any political party that is remotely mainstream and which never has policy votes amongst its members, you would find the OLP to only be in the same company as Maxime Bernier's People's Party!
Interesting. Thanks for your insight.
*UWindsor Young Liberals
So long as people remember and revile McGuinty and Wynne the OLP will continue in pergatory.
Hell, Ontario still hasn't forgiven the NDP and they were voted out 30 years ago.
I think if the NDP had popular policies brought forward by likeable (and sane) candidates then people would be willing to forgive. That people are still holding a grudge against the ONDP 30 years later is on the ONDP, not on Johnny and Jenny Public.
Accurate.
Yep people seem to have long memories in Ontario. Must be its Irish heritage. But I got a chuckle watching Doug Fraud trying to pour out a bottle of Crown Royal without removing the flow restrictor from the neck. Of course nobody in his undoubtedly million dollar team of advisers and event planners thought of it.
They're used to the good stuff, which typically only comes in 700-750ml bottles.
Rob, however, would have known that you can usually pull out the plastic pourer with your teeth. I doubt he could bring himself to waste that much booze though.
😆😆😆
It was a clumsy moment, in slow motion even.
I remember puzzling over the McGuinty era: governments across the country had just battled their way out of crippling fiscal challenges, and here was a guy who *wasn't* taking the opportunity to improve Ontario's position for the future (which still seemed like a far more precarious place than Alberta or BC), but was spending like crazy and making claims like "Can't afford to do it? We can't afford NOT to do it!!" And despite the economic and fiscal woes of just a few years earlier, Ontarians lapped it up and granted his party a decade in power.
A lot of the problems Ontario has today can probably be placed squarely at feet of the McGuinty Liberals. Of course, by the time Katherine Wynne was left to face the music, a lot of those same Liberals had gone off to join the Trudeau government and pull the same act at the federal level - again with the support of Ontario voters who'd already been experiencing their governance at the provincial level.
It's not actually that surprising to see the Ontario Liberals languishing. They left a poor legacy for their decade in power. A lot of people remember that, although perhaps not enough (see Trudeau's victories in 2019 and 2021...) In other provinces, once-dominant parties have gone extinct when they've screwed up sufficiently. That was the fate of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party, and the Saskatchewan Progressive Conservatives. Alberta and BC's Social Credit Parties both ended in a legacy of failure. In Ontario's case, though, let's not forget that the provincial NDP *also* has the fairly disastrous legacy of Bob Rae's government that they've spent decades living down, and Mike Harris was a millstone around the necks of the PCs as well.
When faced with a fiscal deficit, you can either cut spending, raise taxes, or just say yes to everything and borrow the difference. The third option makes you way more popular in the short term especially when coupled with gaslighting about how it's an "investment" and your opponents want austerity or tax-and-spend socialism.
And we've just let the exact same people do the exact same thing at the federal level for the last 10 years and probably at least four more. Better luck next time Ontario. Maybe when the boomers finally die in 30 years and/or the bond market decides it has had enough of Canada's foolishness.
At the Ontario Liberals' General Meeting I ran for the party Presidency and lost by 776 voters versus 148 votes. I wrote a reflection about the experience here: https://stefanklietsch.substack.com/p/reflections-from-the-losing-presidential
That party has suffered institutional decline in the past decade and the instincts by some within the party have been to throw the Leaders under the bus for failing to overcome that - even as the rest of the OLP establishment remains virtually unchanged...
"not because they were great at governing the province, but because they were great at winning elections" writes Mr. Stinson.
Doesn’t that seem eerily familiar to the performance in Ottawa? Like the McGuinty/Wynne era, the Trudeau/Carney government got another blood transfusion of public support and defied incredible odds to stay in power.
Perhaps the biggest problem for the OLP is that the election winning people are currently working in Ottawa, and will stick around the halls of power until the Canadian public finally has enough. The day of reckoning was deferred but like Ms. Wynne found out, the federal Liberals are not enjoying any big honeymoon with the public and the mistakes are already piling up.
Though I also thought the OLP would have its act together by this point, I don't think we should be surprised by their poor showing(s) recently.
It is worth noting, for example, that Ontario had an OLP govt for 15 years after 2003. That means that the OPCs couldn't "get their act together" for 15 years. So this is not without recent precedent.
That said, the OLP have no one to blame but themselves for their current state. No one knew (or cared) who Bonnie Crombie is because she pushed policies that no one cared about. What was the OLP's signiture policy from last February? Here's a problem— I had to look it up just now. It was "fixing education" which may as well be, "making sure the sky remains blue". The rest of their policy was based around the idea of, "Getting the Basics Right". So basic competence. Their signiture policy in the "Donald Trump is going to burn our house down" election was— "we intend on getting the basics right!". Why is anyone shocked this fell flatter than Oxford County?
If the OLP (or ONDP, for that matter) wants to have any chance of forming a government in the foreseeable future they need two things—
1. A Conservative Govt in Ottawa to fight against
2. More importantly, they need to push transformational policies that will make people's lives quantifiably better. Improving education is great! But Canadians need shiny things in elections. Shoot for the moon, OLP, because status quo sure as heck isn't working.
Based on the last election, when Liberals and the NDP gave identical answers to every question, just merge and get it over with....not that Ontario will soon recover from Ford's disastrous graft.