Scott Stinson: 'Nice guy' won't be Poilievre's path to power

How moderate can he be before some of his most enthusiastic supporters start melting away?

Image from Poilievre’s X account.

By: Scott Stinson

As Ottawa inches toward business as usual after a quiet summer, a popular column theme has emerged. Loosely defined, it’s “Pierre Poilievre: Now What?”

This genre of take can go in a few different directions. Sometimes it’s Tories offering unsolicited advice to the federal Conservative leader on how he should approach the fall sitting of Parliament after his humiliating election defeat. Sometimes it’s journalists or pollsters assessing his opportunities to gain ground on Mark Carney and the Liberals. Sometimes it’s yet another piece about an “image makeover,” as though the only thing that kept him out of 24 Sussex Rideau Cottage was his decision to go full T-shirt.

A consistent argument across most of these articles is that Poilievre ought to try being, well, a little nicer. Or, more accurately if we’re being honest, a bit less of a dick.

I don’t think it’s unfair to say that Poilievre, who relished being the opposition attack dog earlier in his career, hasn’t shown much inclination to ditch that attitude, even as he became the PM-in-waiting. It might even be why he became PM-in-waiting, as his withering, relentless criticisms of Justin Trudeau found a receptive audience with an electorate that had become quite tired of the guy in charge.

But in the aftermath of his spring election defeat, it’s become received wisdom that he needs to sand down some of that trademark abrasiveness. This advice can take many forms, from taking a softer tone in his public statements, to “offering solutions” instead of always putting Carney on blast. There’s also the looming question of policy: will the Poilievre Tories mimic his one-time boss and present themselves as more moderate this time around, or will they lean into the culture-war stuff where there is presumably a lot of daylight between his party and the Liberals?

It’s easy to see where the arguments to soften up are coming from. Poilievre’s personal approval numbers have always trailed those of his party, which wasn’t a problem when the Conservatives were miles ahead in the polls. But once the Liberals had unexpectedly turned things around for Trump-related reasons, it sure looked like Poilievre would have benefited from spending a little more time on voter outreach and a little less time crapping on Trudeau.

It’s also true that Poilievre doesn’t need to worry about protecting his right flank. If Maxime Bernier and the PPC were ever going to pose a threat, that time has long since passed. Even if a more moderate-sounding Poilievre might annoy some on the right who still want to fight COVID-era battles, where else are those voters going to realistically go? To the party that just received less than one per cent of the vote?

And yet, here is the tricky thing for Poilievre: those are his people.

Of course, a party that earned 41 per cent of the popular vote and won 144 seats was backed by many supporters who cared about mainstream issues like the cost of living and crime. The Poilievre election mantra of “good job, nice house, safe street” clearly resonated with a lot of people.

But I attended a couple of Poilievre election rallies, at either end of the campaign, and there was absolutely an audience for the culture-war stuff, too. He could give a long speech that touched on housing costs and inflation, on the revolving-door justice system and the difficult job market — and some of the biggest cheers of the night would come when he mentioned a Canadian military that would have a “warrior culture, not a woke culture” or when he decried “globalist elites.” He didn’t mention Bill Gates or George Soros, but the implication was there.

It seemed weird at the time, as Trump’s tariff and annexation talk had completely upended the election, that Poilievre could speak for half an hour and barely mention the guy’s name, but there must have been a concern that bashing Trump overtly risked alienating at least some of his audience. Some of his most passionate supporters were those that booed lustily at mentions of 15-minute cities or the Century Initiative, the very online types who probably weren’t all that interested in a detailed explanation of a plan to boost housing starts.

You will note, by this point, that I have not offered any advice to Poilievre. If I was in that business, I’m not sure what I’d say. And I’ve been wrong about him before. Late in the campaign it looked like he had foolishly ignored the anti-Trump message that Ontario Premier Doug Ford had just used to great effect, but then after the vote the federal Tories did much better in the province than expected. The idea that he should sit tight, smile for the cameras, let someone else pummel the Liberals, and wait for Carney to fritter away his post-Trudeau bounce must be an enticing one. But aside from this being very much at odds with his political instincts, how moderate can he be before some of his most enthusiastic supporters start melting away?

Pierre Poilievre, nice guy? It doesn’t seem like it would take.

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