Scott Stinson: Poilievre's in trouble ... but no one is gasping out loud quite yet

Let me tell you when they DID gasp, though ...

The Canadian Press.

By: Scott Stinson

Over the 15 or so years that I spent working out of the National Post’s Toronto newsroom, there was exactly one instance of breaking news, not counting terror attacks or significant disasters, that caused loud gasps when it happened.

It was May of 2005, and the minority Liberal government of Paul Martin was hanging on by its fingernails. A budget vote was imminent, and the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois had enough votes to bring down the government, 153-151.

Martin had called a press conference in Ottawa. And at the appointed time, he strolled out, with Conservative MP Belinda Stronach next to him.

As I say: Literal gasps. Eyes popping out cartoonishly. Holy crap, the old guy had done it.

Stronach had agreed to join to the Liberals — and gone straight into Cabinet, naturally — and save the Martin government in the process. The 152-152 tie meant the Speaker, a Liberal, could cast a decisive vote and that was that. Martin, I will always remember, had the most shit-eating grin on his face in the history of shit-eating grins. He was the cat who had swallowed all the canaries.

Adding to the intrigue was that Stronach was no random backbencher. She had run for the Conservative leadership (and lost to Stephen Harper) and was dating Tory MP Peter MacKay. The CBC scrambled a crew to his Nova Scotia farm, and he gave a sombre interview from the middle of his potato patch. What a way to get dumped.

That, kids, is how you do a floor-crossing.

We have some distance to go before the current shenanigans in Ottawa rise to that level of drama. But shenanigans they are: Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont’s decision to jump from the Conservatives to the Liberals didn’t tilt the balance of power in the House of Commons, though it did leave the Mark Carney Liberals just three members short of a parliamentary majority. Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux’s subsequent announcement that he would retire muddied the waters further. The Tory MP said he would not join the Liberals, and that he’s leaving politics on good terms with his party. Indeed, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre thanked him for his service and wished him the best, even as his office has been calling d’Entremont a selfish liar who will fit right in with those lying Liberals.

Jeneroux’s decision to resign is a hell of a coincidence, coming just as the Liberals are trying to cajole Tory MPs to follow d’Entremont across the aisle. It’s not unusual for politicians to step down to spend more time with their families, but it is odd to do it six months after campaigning for re-election, and at a time when the Tories need every vote and are trying to project unity behind Poilievre.

From the coverage I’ve seen, there has been a distinct whiff of that self-satisfied Paul Martin grin coming from some of the Liberals in Ottawa, who are professing surprise at the suggestion that they have been trying entice floor-crossers — “Who, us?” (bats eyelashes) — while at the same time stalking the less-committed Tories like they are wolves eyeing the weakest bison.

I’m not sure that giddiness is the right tone for Liberals to strike; Martin’s government fell not long after Stronarch’s defection and she hung around on the Liberal opposition benches for a couple of years before leaving politics.

But there’s also no denying that this is Very Bad News for Poilievre at a time when he really does not need it. Fresh off that blown-lead of an election defeat that included the loss of his own seat, Team Poilievre should be projecting a government-in-waiting vibe as they hope that voters sour on elbows-down Carney. Instead, they are scrambling around trying to make sure their MPs stay inside the blue tent.

Whatever one thinks of the contrasting versions of d’Entremont’s departure — he says a couple of senior Tories “barged” into his office and yelled at him, knocking a staffer aside with the door, while they say it was merely a frank exchange of views — it seems it was not handled with a great deal of grace. One of those senior Tories, house whip Chris Warentkin, further told the Toronto Star that Conservative MPs have been facing what amounts to “harassment” with the continued questions about their potential defections. “It’s completely unfair to these people,” he said.

Perhaps I am being naive, but it seems like there is a simple way for MPs to shoot down floor-crossing rumour and innuendo. When asked, say that you are a committed Tory who backs your leader. Throw in something about Mark Carney being Just Like Justin for good measure. There you go, harassment over.

Anything less than that, though, and, well, people are going to keep asking. Reporters gonna report. Perhaps more importantly, Liberals gonna Liberal, especially when it has been working well for them so far.

Scott Stinson writes from suburban Toronto.

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