Regarding your comment on Canada's tendency to hope for the best and prepare for the best, I'm reminded of a line from Antony Beevor's book on the 1944 Ardennes offensive. I'm paraphrasing, but he says "the allies never considered the possibility of the Germans launching an offensive through the Ardennes, despite having done exactly that in 1870, 1914, and 1940."
Can anyone explain to me why it's considered an excellent resume' to be a head of a Central Bank. Having lived through a number of global financial crisis, I can't see that these roles are really responsible for anything. The global markets determine currency value and borrowing rates
Because he says it is and the LPC members and a lot of the main stream media believe it therefore it must be true and you, me and the rest of the unwashed are too stupid to see it.
It's impossible to prove a counterfactual, but I do think monetary policy is important, and conventional wisdom is that Carney did a good job with it during the Great Financial Crisis (cutting interest rates early, etc).
However, even if we accept Carney is a great central banker, I don't know that those skills translate to being a great finance minister or prime minister. Does setting interest rates and controlling money supply (very technical disciplines) really help crafting and selling a pro-productivity budget? Having an economics background isn't a bad thing, but I don't think being a central banker means Carney has some unique insights on crafting tax policy that his opponents don't.
I'm not saying Carney is Ignatieff 2.0, but I think it's the same Liberal mindset at work loving the elite-friendly resume, rather than any sort of real reason to think his central banking background will translate into being a great political leader.
I don't think Carney is Ignatieff 2.0 so much as the bastard child of Michael Ignatieff and Kim Campbell.
But who knows, maybe he'll have a bunch of great ideas to address both the current crisises and Canada's systemic issues. And even if that dastardly Pierre Pollievre forces an election (totally not fair!), then maybe Carney will stick around as opposition leader to rebuild the Liberal party and return the Liberals to their rightful place as Canada's natural governing party once Canadians tire of PP and the Conservatives verbing the noun. Let's check back in 8 years.
Allow me to co-sign every single thing Jen said about the Hogue Report. This is SO exhausting - how many times do we have to see this fucking movie?
“Just trust us. No, you don’t need to see the information on which we have based the decision. Furthermore, because we care about all Canadians, to save you all from stumbling upon any misinformation that might cause you to doubt us, we will establish and operate a censorship regime. You’re welcome.” And on those very, very special occasions deserving an epilogue: “Don’t forget, you’re a homophobic, transphobic, Islamaphobic, racist.” FFS, just get on with it and replace the maple leaf on the flag with a mushroom.
I loved Jen’s description on how the US is hugely profiting by upgrading Alberta heavy oil and using it while also gaining by exporting oil elsewhere. And how they may ease up on tariffs to keep this going. It made me think of how Quebec screwed Newfoundland for generations buying Churchill Falls power at a fixed rate and selling it to New York State. And now Quebec told Newfoundland they will stop screwing them over on the existing deal in exchange for a bigger power deal in the future. And Newfoundland agreed. 🙄. There seems to be a pattern emerging here.
I believe assuming President Trump is deranged because he keeps changing his mind is a huge mistake because it leads to underestimating your enemy. Just because he doesn’t act like a passive aggressive, polite, nice once a year in Easter Sunday at church, but never kind Canadian politician. Donald Trump is reacting to his environment exactly like the Canadian Governnent does except he does it in minutes or days rather than weeks or years. Canada is like a dinosaur that stubs its tail - it takes forever for the message to make it to its pea brain for a reaction.
Smart people are really really prone to making decisions in a bubble or tunnel visioned decisions. The issue with smart people is that they can be really smart into deluding themselves.
Carney and his policy of Carbon Border adjustments is a prime example of Smart people decision making.
Sentence enhanced: Smart people decision making, without getting input from a wide range of other people; meaning - deliberately excluding the possibility of input from a wide range of other people. That is the Carney style I have observed over the years since he led Bank of Canada.
I did a bit of a background check on Mark Carney. This is what I thought was relevant about Mr. Carney.
Mark Carney held or holds a position with the UN as a finance 'reformer'.
In 2020, Mark Carney was appointed United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.
The whole idea was is to leverage institutional investors in the banking world to use 'finance' to pressure corporations into limiting supply. The logic around limiting supply was drive up prices so people couldn’t afford to consume as much. If people consume less it meant less carbon emissions. Mark Carney helped build this so they could financially weaponize against people that didn’t follow their agenda.
Being that Mark Carney was the architect of all of this I don't believe for a second that a guy with this ideology and is willing to manipulate financial markets to that degree to international price fix in order to drive down consumption of food, clothing etc. is all of a sudden going to change his mind on the carbon tax. He already is rebranding it. This guy is scary.
And now CBC and the Houge report.
There was an interview on CBC 24/7 news with a CSIS agent who disputed the information that Hogue provided in her report.
It also seems that for some ‘unknown’ reason, that interview was pulled and no longer available on the CBC.
Great podcast where Matt, suffering from norovirus and a concussion, and Jen, recovering from dental surgery, provide more coherent thoughtful analysis on the massive challenges faced by Canada than anyone in the Trudeau Government.
Carney certainly has some credentials when it comes to climate change. Unfortunately, climate change has just been replaced by security and the economy as the number one issues. Bad timing!
I especially enjoyed Jens concise description regarding Canadian heavy crude's advantage to American oil companies. Follow the money holds true. Both Matt and Jen showing up for work despite suffering ailments is rare and laudable. I worked in the public sector and saw sick time payment abuse that metaphorically sickened me. Excellent work.
David Brooks wrote a column for the January 30 New York Times that has identified the core problem with Trump 2.0: this is a fundamentally stupid administration. They’re not being rational, they’re ignoring facts, and they’re constantly being surprised by consequences of their actions because they can’t see more than one step ahead. That’s not any better for Canada, because it suggests we’re not going to get anywhere by trying to reason with this administration. However, it’s an important insight because it tells us not to waste time on that; instead, focus on mitigating the damage for Canadians. We’re on our own here, or at least we can’t count on America. That understanding needs to shape our policies.
Unfortunately, we’ve got a mirror problem of stupidity in the current Liberal government and their NDP backers. Mark Carney doesn’t seem like he’s going to be an improvement, as he’s basing assumptions on a faith in the supremacy of a rules-based international order. That quaint faith has got its roots in the triumphalism of the post-Cold War ‘90s. Its proponents never quite grasped that those rules only worked because of a political consensus, not because of any particular transcendent and supreme international law that nations had to follow. So, it’s unsurprising to hear Carney spouting off plans that exploit some technical features of treaties or conventions without considering that other nations can just response “No, I don’t want to do that.”
What we need right now is Canadian leadership that’s flexible, pragmatic, and not overly committed to ideological agendas that will distract from the big issues. I’m wishing for a Mulroney, Chretien, or Harper right now: hard-eyed political pros who could balance domestic and international politics.
First off - hope you two are feeling better. Second - good discussion of the issues.
Hogue report - wtf??? Didn't JT announce in committee that he had seen a list of CPC members who were 'influenced'? Didn't JS say much the same? Weren't the leaks saying the same? Didn't I see a LPC candidate elected as candidate under questionable bussing of balloters? OK, Hong Dong might not have been 'elected' by dubious means but he became 'candidate' under dubious means. I'm sitting in radio land saying Huh? who is lying and who is telling the truth here? Me thinks that just this once JT is telling the truth - there is interference but let's pin it to use LPC taling points about misinformation, disinformation and let's throw more cash at the media who few trust as it is.
Your comments on Carney are correct but take it a step further. Nobel winners seem to believe that winning in chemistry means they can pontificate on economics - and the media and the public eat it up (well at least the main stream media does). Carney is a smart guy but like a lot of smart people they are book smart and street stupid. He has no concept of how Joe lunchbucket is dealing with life. There are lots of folks in the UK who were not happy with his handling of Brexit (his protestation to the contrary) and his success in Canada had at least as much to do with a firmly grounded banking system (federall regulated not by the B of C) than any policy that he put into play
I'm reminded of an old political saw that goes that we get the government that we deserve - so what did we do to deserve what we are getting folks?
I also like how no one thinks that a central banker might have played a significant role in goosing asset prices, which is the major force behind the populist movements, while simultaneously saying there is no inflation.
As someone literally in the rocket science business, who owns a somewhat okay business in the field and has a relevant degree. I'll even go even further.
The people in the business that can't figure out how to speak to their audience at their level, they aren't actually that smart. Also, the people who aren't humbled constantly by discovering unknown unknowns, they are actually dangerous.
Unfortunately, your father-in-law’s advice is only good advice for people who are truly open to considering that they might be wrong and have something to learn from someone else.
It IS good advice for those people.
Unfortunately, understanding something takes work and an open mind otherwise we’d all instantly understand everything except the most complicated subjects. And so there’s far too many of us who assume that the other side is trying to put one over on us when we’re just wrong.
Regarding your comment on Canada's tendency to hope for the best and prepare for the best, I'm reminded of a line from Antony Beevor's book on the 1944 Ardennes offensive. I'm paraphrasing, but he says "the allies never considered the possibility of the Germans launching an offensive through the Ardennes, despite having done exactly that in 1870, 1914, and 1940."
Can anyone explain to me why it's considered an excellent resume' to be a head of a Central Bank. Having lived through a number of global financial crisis, I can't see that these roles are really responsible for anything. The global markets determine currency value and borrowing rates
Because he says it is and the LPC members and a lot of the main stream media believe it therefore it must be true and you, me and the rest of the unwashed are too stupid to see it.
It's impossible to prove a counterfactual, but I do think monetary policy is important, and conventional wisdom is that Carney did a good job with it during the Great Financial Crisis (cutting interest rates early, etc).
However, even if we accept Carney is a great central banker, I don't know that those skills translate to being a great finance minister or prime minister. Does setting interest rates and controlling money supply (very technical disciplines) really help crafting and selling a pro-productivity budget? Having an economics background isn't a bad thing, but I don't think being a central banker means Carney has some unique insights on crafting tax policy that his opponents don't.
I'm not saying Carney is Ignatieff 2.0, but I think it's the same Liberal mindset at work loving the elite-friendly resume, rather than any sort of real reason to think his central banking background will translate into being a great political leader.
I don't think Carney is Ignatieff 2.0 so much as the bastard child of Michael Ignatieff and Kim Campbell.
But who knows, maybe he'll have a bunch of great ideas to address both the current crisises and Canada's systemic issues. And even if that dastardly Pierre Pollievre forces an election (totally not fair!), then maybe Carney will stick around as opposition leader to rebuild the Liberal party and return the Liberals to their rightful place as Canada's natural governing party once Canadians tire of PP and the Conservatives verbing the noun. Let's check back in 8 years.
Because technocrats are impressed by his greasy pole climbing abilities.
Allow me to co-sign every single thing Jen said about the Hogue Report. This is SO exhausting - how many times do we have to see this fucking movie?
“Just trust us. No, you don’t need to see the information on which we have based the decision. Furthermore, because we care about all Canadians, to save you all from stumbling upon any misinformation that might cause you to doubt us, we will establish and operate a censorship regime. You’re welcome.” And on those very, very special occasions deserving an epilogue: “Don’t forget, you’re a homophobic, transphobic, Islamaphobic, racist.” FFS, just get on with it and replace the maple leaf on the flag with a mushroom.
And Matt, you look good in those Bruins colours!
"Matt has norovirus and potentially a concussion. But they showed up and did the thing anyway."
Damn, Dude. Are you turning into Shorsey?
Not deliberately.
Norovirus and a concussion? You're an easy 4 to 6 'bye.
I loved Jen’s description on how the US is hugely profiting by upgrading Alberta heavy oil and using it while also gaining by exporting oil elsewhere. And how they may ease up on tariffs to keep this going. It made me think of how Quebec screwed Newfoundland for generations buying Churchill Falls power at a fixed rate and selling it to New York State. And now Quebec told Newfoundland they will stop screwing them over on the existing deal in exchange for a bigger power deal in the future. And Newfoundland agreed. 🙄. There seems to be a pattern emerging here.
I believe assuming President Trump is deranged because he keeps changing his mind is a huge mistake because it leads to underestimating your enemy. Just because he doesn’t act like a passive aggressive, polite, nice once a year in Easter Sunday at church, but never kind Canadian politician. Donald Trump is reacting to his environment exactly like the Canadian Governnent does except he does it in minutes or days rather than weeks or years. Canada is like a dinosaur that stubs its tail - it takes forever for the message to make it to its pea brain for a reaction.
“Never hate your enemy, it affects your thinking.” Don Corleone.
Smart people are really really prone to making decisions in a bubble or tunnel visioned decisions. The issue with smart people is that they can be really smart into deluding themselves.
Carney and his policy of Carbon Border adjustments is a prime example of Smart people decision making.
Sentence enhanced: Smart people decision making, without getting input from a wide range of other people; meaning - deliberately excluding the possibility of input from a wide range of other people. That is the Carney style I have observed over the years since he led Bank of Canada.
I did a bit of a background check on Mark Carney. This is what I thought was relevant about Mr. Carney.
Mark Carney held or holds a position with the UN as a finance 'reformer'.
In 2020, Mark Carney was appointed United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.
The whole idea was is to leverage institutional investors in the banking world to use 'finance' to pressure corporations into limiting supply. The logic around limiting supply was drive up prices so people couldn’t afford to consume as much. If people consume less it meant less carbon emissions. Mark Carney helped build this so they could financially weaponize against people that didn’t follow their agenda.
Being that Mark Carney was the architect of all of this I don't believe for a second that a guy with this ideology and is willing to manipulate financial markets to that degree to international price fix in order to drive down consumption of food, clothing etc. is all of a sudden going to change his mind on the carbon tax. He already is rebranding it. This guy is scary.
And now CBC and the Houge report.
There was an interview on CBC 24/7 news with a CSIS agent who disputed the information that Hogue provided in her report.
It also seems that for some ‘unknown’ reason, that interview was pulled and no longer available on the CBC.
The interview that was pulled, can be found at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqFewYb_xvg
Northern Perspective did the digging and someone had taped the interview so they have a copy of the pulled interview.
And our government wonders why we don't trust them.
Happy Saturday.
Great podcast where Matt, suffering from norovirus and a concussion, and Jen, recovering from dental surgery, provide more coherent thoughtful analysis on the massive challenges faced by Canada than anyone in the Trudeau Government.
Carney certainly has some credentials when it comes to climate change. Unfortunately, climate change has just been replaced by security and the economy as the number one issues. Bad timing!
I especially enjoyed Jens concise description regarding Canadian heavy crude's advantage to American oil companies. Follow the money holds true. Both Matt and Jen showing up for work despite suffering ailments is rare and laudable. I worked in the public sector and saw sick time payment abuse that metaphorically sickened me. Excellent work.
I have found that having your own company and commitments really brings down your sick days; dramatically.
David Brooks wrote a column for the January 30 New York Times that has identified the core problem with Trump 2.0: this is a fundamentally stupid administration. They’re not being rational, they’re ignoring facts, and they’re constantly being surprised by consequences of their actions because they can’t see more than one step ahead. That’s not any better for Canada, because it suggests we’re not going to get anywhere by trying to reason with this administration. However, it’s an important insight because it tells us not to waste time on that; instead, focus on mitigating the damage for Canadians. We’re on our own here, or at least we can’t count on America. That understanding needs to shape our policies.
Unfortunately, we’ve got a mirror problem of stupidity in the current Liberal government and their NDP backers. Mark Carney doesn’t seem like he’s going to be an improvement, as he’s basing assumptions on a faith in the supremacy of a rules-based international order. That quaint faith has got its roots in the triumphalism of the post-Cold War ‘90s. Its proponents never quite grasped that those rules only worked because of a political consensus, not because of any particular transcendent and supreme international law that nations had to follow. So, it’s unsurprising to hear Carney spouting off plans that exploit some technical features of treaties or conventions without considering that other nations can just response “No, I don’t want to do that.”
What we need right now is Canadian leadership that’s flexible, pragmatic, and not overly committed to ideological agendas that will distract from the big issues. I’m wishing for a Mulroney, Chretien, or Harper right now: hard-eyed political pros who could balance domestic and international politics.
First off - hope you two are feeling better. Second - good discussion of the issues.
Hogue report - wtf??? Didn't JT announce in committee that he had seen a list of CPC members who were 'influenced'? Didn't JS say much the same? Weren't the leaks saying the same? Didn't I see a LPC candidate elected as candidate under questionable bussing of balloters? OK, Hong Dong might not have been 'elected' by dubious means but he became 'candidate' under dubious means. I'm sitting in radio land saying Huh? who is lying and who is telling the truth here? Me thinks that just this once JT is telling the truth - there is interference but let's pin it to use LPC taling points about misinformation, disinformation and let's throw more cash at the media who few trust as it is.
Your comments on Carney are correct but take it a step further. Nobel winners seem to believe that winning in chemistry means they can pontificate on economics - and the media and the public eat it up (well at least the main stream media does). Carney is a smart guy but like a lot of smart people they are book smart and street stupid. He has no concept of how Joe lunchbucket is dealing with life. There are lots of folks in the UK who were not happy with his handling of Brexit (his protestation to the contrary) and his success in Canada had at least as much to do with a firmly grounded banking system (federall regulated not by the B of C) than any policy that he put into play
I'm reminded of an old political saw that goes that we get the government that we deserve - so what did we do to deserve what we are getting folks?
I also like how no one thinks that a central banker might have played a significant role in goosing asset prices, which is the major force behind the populist movements, while simultaneously saying there is no inflation.
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As someone literally in the rocket science business, who owns a somewhat okay business in the field and has a relevant degree. I'll even go even further.
The people in the business that can't figure out how to speak to their audience at their level, they aren't actually that smart. Also, the people who aren't humbled constantly by discovering unknown unknowns, they are actually dangerous.
Unfortunately, your father-in-law’s advice is only good advice for people who are truly open to considering that they might be wrong and have something to learn from someone else.
It IS good advice for those people.
Unfortunately, understanding something takes work and an open mind otherwise we’d all instantly understand everything except the most complicated subjects. And so there’s far too many of us who assume that the other side is trying to put one over on us when we’re just wrong.
Re: Advice - if you can’t explain a plan or concept on the back of a cocktail napkin, you don’t understand it or you’re bullshitting.