"And thus far, it's all unfolding to Mark Carney's advantage."
And to Canada's detriment. I can't wait to see how Carney's "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (https://markcarney.ca/media/2025/01/mark-carney-presents-plan-for-change-on-consumer-carbon-tax) drives the cost of living for Canadians even higher. Because that's just what we need, right as we are trying to pivot to other trading partners in an attempt to reduce our dependnce upon our main trading partner, the one Carney just announced that we are effectively done with.
RE: "....and what does a green energy super power look like?" Like a mined out dirty hellscape covered with wind and solar farms with no birds. Skeletal undernourished serfs crowd 15-minute shanty towns. Over yonder behind the multilayered barbed wire fences is one of the heavily protected white castles serviced by the serfs, that is where fuckers like Carney live.
I think it is pretty obvious that being nasty is not a trait that most Canadians find appealing. At this very moment the cons have gone from a projection of 220 seats to a projection of 127 seats. eh? What's 93 seats among friends. The libs have gone from projected complete wipeout to a current projection of 187 seats.
As Kory Teneycke said, PP has a likability issue and a few smiles is not going to change that. Most normal women detest the guy. Quebec hates him, and right now in Ontario, the Libs have 2x the seat projection the cons do. It only took 12 weeks and the bloom was off the rose as soon as Trudeau stepped down. Carney winning just enhanced what we were seeing.
Being an obnoxious 17 yr old only takes you to far. You can't make it to the big chair by having all of Quebec and most of Ontario hate you. Yes when they had no where to go people went to the Cons but the NDP voters is not about to let the CPC take over. They are switching to the Libs and quick and they will stay there for this election.
We have been hearing doom and gloom forever. We are still here, we are still fighting and making a living.
We could have other trade partners, but that is up to business to do. The governments of the day, created free trade deals and Canadian business has not stepped up to take advantage of them.
As for the productivity gap, well if you take the oil sands out of the mix, Canada has the same productivity gains as the USA does. The oil sands is a sunset industry and so they are not going to invest. Just drill and rip.
That "obnoxious 17 yr old" would have won handily, if not for a truly loathsome PM being replaced by a slippery, evasive so-called "outsider" who shamelessly passes off other people's policies and work as his own, while taking credit for things he didn't do or overstating his role in efforts he contributed to.
Canada finding other trading partners to replace the US isn't just up to private interests. Government needs to move in that direction as well, with dispatch. Our supply-managed industries are one thing hurting us in that regard, a barrier which if left up to private interests will likely never be removed.
Encouraging investment in Canada by foreign industries and businesses is another effort that government needs to play a key role in. Almost a decade of disastrous Liberal rule has left Canada uncompetitve, with an astounding amount of capital flight to the US.
I think you will find an awful lot of people disagreeing with you that the oil sands are a sunset industry. Hydrocarbons are globally much in demand, for energy as well as for manufacturing, in both oil and natural gas form. With the oil sands comprising 97% of Canada's proven reserves, and being the world's third largest, I don't think they are something we can just turn our backs on. Oil is a resource crucial to our civlization which accounted for a tenth of Canada's GDP in 2023. Per the productivity issues of Canada's oil and gas industry, you can lay most of the blame for that at the feet of the regulatory barriers and policy decisions created by the Trudeau government in their decade of destruction.
O&G are absolutely not a "sunset industry", they are still indispensible for commercial and industrial uses. Sure maybe one day we'll switch to a better alternative, but throughout history nobody has ever forced a transition to a different energy source, this happens organically when a superior source is discovered. Nobody had to be forced to stop heating their house with a woodstove or coal furnace and switch to natgas, it was just better and cheaper and cleaner. Nobody had to be forced to stop lighting their home with whale oil lamps. That punitive and coercive measures are required shows the problems with the "green transition"
I like your perspective but this “The oil sands is a sunset industry and so they are not going to invest.” Is flat out incorrect. The reason investment has not happened is simply C-69.
I’ll challenge you on this.
1. What replaces hydrocarbons as a reliable energy source. And what is the time frame to build out that replacement if it exists?
2. Plastics are ubiquitous in modern society. From the device you’re using to read this, to the cloths you wear and the building materials in your home. These are not being replaced or phased out anytime soon - there are no replacements.
We will see. If Albertans really believed the tar sands was to be a going concern forever, then why did they not build an upgrader refinery.
The most expensive oil in the world is the tar sands. If electric cars and trucks take off, oil needs will go down drastically and this oil will be left in the ground.
Why not build an upgrader? These are thin margin operations that take a long time to make back their capital investment. Nobody is going to do that in a hostile political environment that could take out the investment on a whim. Also Canada heavy crude is not the most expensive oil in the world, US fracked oil is.
Also, if EVs take off you have another problem. This will likely increase the electrical system demand by 40% - 50% and to increase the system capacity is going to cost a lot of money. You could replace ICE vehicles in places which have a surplus of hydro power such as Quebec or Norway but it would simply displace GHG emissions to areas which would not get the hydro.
It is simple to create ideas but when you look at the costs vs the energy requirements, a lot of them are simply unrealizable.
Sands been running for 50 yrs and no upgrader. They take a big discount because of the fact the product is low quality.
As I said, this is the most expensive oil in the world. We will always use oil for plastics and such, but once cars are electric, demand will crater. Do you not remember Covid? Oil went negative because they had too much. The most difficult oil to refine will be the first dropped.
Actually oil sands operators take a bigger discount because of a lack of pipeline capacity. Upgraders don't help with that. Also heavy fractions left over after upgrading still have to go somewhere and if you do in Alberta you have shipping costs to other places.
The oil price during covid was misunderstood. Demand dropped sharply because people stopped travelling but the world wide supply chain was full so oil had no where to go temporarily. This was the "spot" price however which only affected a minor amount of the oil being traded. Canada heavy competes with Venezuelan and Mayan which have similar difficulties.
Also the market for Hydrocarbons is a world market. Canada can drop its consumption to zero and this would barely make blimp in world demand. The vast majority of the world’s economies by size are not taking meaningful action to decrease their hydrocarbon consumption, or decarbonize their grids either.
But even if we take your argument at face value and say the future will be electric vehicles,
expanded power production capacity, and critical mineral mining are limiting factors in their growth. And to grow those limiting factors, we require diesel, steel, concrete, and heavy machinery. All of which requires - hydrocarbons.
PP likeable issue? this is all partisan. No one has lower partisan likeable than Trump, yet he wins all swing states. You choose a person with the right policy, not husband. Many Canadian trust Carney is a good policy man, eh? OK, show me the evidence - which ONE policy is created by this guy and unique since election is announced?
Yes the defining trait of Canadian culture. You can be the biggest backstabbing pederastic genocidal asshole in the universe but as long as you’re polite curtsy and smile you are a true Canadian worthy of accolades and political victory.
Jen argues that Poilievre’s heart is not in this fight right now.
Carney may be the better person to interact with Trump but the Liberals will continue with their pattern of “the announcement is the accomplishment” and nothing will get done….. except we become the 51st state.
I prefer to have Poilievre who may be disliked by Trump but who I believe can get shit done for Canada.
I think Poilievre would make a good PM. Whatever people say about him, I don't doubt that he loves this country. Carney likes the Mr Dressup/Friendly Giant Canada of his youth. I don't blame him. I do too. But I am not in any way affiliated with the party that totally destroyed that in its desire to make it a post-national state.
There's something off about Carney. Why does he want to be PM? He doesn't look comfortable on the campaign and hates to be questioned. Will he just skip Question Period and call the shots from his office? If the libs lose the election, will he even stick around? I doubt it.
Even though I personally am a stickler re plagiarism, I don't think this issue is a voting issue. But I do find it interesting in that Carney entered the campaign with not just one but two stolen logos, then followed up with borrowed campaign promises. Again, not the end of the world, but it tells me that he thinks others' ideas are for the taking. The silver lining is that maybe his team will stop waving his Oxford thesis in our faces. It has no bearing on the job he's running for and was currently selected for by Liberals.
Conservatives should start poking him about 'plagiarized campaign promises' without even acknowledging the PHD thesis controversy, just because it's apparent this makes Carney really angry.
I completely agree with you. How after 10 years of the devastation to Canada wrought by the Liberals, Canadians could even consider supporting yet another Liberal government completely baffles me! Second last in OECD countries for GDP over the past 10 years, denouncement of our national symbols and heritage, rising violent crime rates, organized crime and money laundering through our real estate and banking industry (how about that $3 billion dollar fine for facilitating money laundering TD Bank??)….is it Stockholm Syndrome? Incredible
Clearly you aren't a brain dead boomer who owns a $2M house on a $75K peak lifetime annual income and who thinks hockey and bad free healthcare adds up to a national identity.
Well me too TBH. But cheer up, do something, attend a rally. I donated. Don't focus on the numbers too much. Its as much of a NDP collapse (thank god I'm not one of them) and Bloc destruction (hey guess who loves Canada now?) than 100% fucked up by PP.
In all honestly I wish they panicked more when jen was telling them to Panic. I also wish they go on some great long form podcasts, and cut through the MSM.
Way too much time spent on Carney’s PHD plagiarism issues. You both indicate it’s a nothing burger and then spend significant time dissecting. Perhaps an editor would have directed your focus to other more salient issues
That said, it did provide a glimpse into Matt’s anxiety, and I would fully support a Kickstarter for a Billy Madison-style movie where Matt is sent back to public school. :P
I disagree with The Line's acceptance of Carney's statement about Canada's relationship with the US being permanently altered. Trump has only been in power for two months and could be neutered within months as Congress worries about the midterms, citizens push back on price increases and various groups pursue legal action against Trump's imposition of tariffs. Despite delusions of being European, Canada will struggle to replace trade with its geographic neighbor that continues to be the world's largest and most innovative market. The allure of American products, services and capital will always pull Canada back.
I totally agree with the statement. Even if a normal President follows him - the trust is broken. We would be fools to revert to the old status quo after that.
America's relationship with the entire world is finished. No one will ever trust them again. No one. Oh everyone will do business with them.... but no one will trust them. Afterall the current presidents signature on a document he negotiate means nothing. Why would the next signature mean anything?
Trump leaves, someone reasonable comes in, new deals made and then Vance makes a come back and poof. All gone again.
No America wanted to be America First, now it is America Alone. China and Russia are just laughing
It would help if Congress repeals or significantly amends the International Emergency Economic Powers Act which has been enabling Trump to tariff at will.
The big reason he's doing this so much is it's the most powerful thing he can do unilaterally other than start a literal shooting war (60 days without congressional approval woo!)
Yah, my response to hearing that line was a reflexive snort and to exclaim "bullshit!" before forgetting about it. I was also surprised that this got so much attention.
It's obvious the US will not benefit from radically breaking with the status quo, and Canada absolutely can't survive any sort of protracted trade war. There are structural factors piling up against Trump's Bizarro World trade agenda back home.
Carney (assuming he wins, let's not lose all hope) is going to make a deal with the US the minute he gets into power, on whatever terms Trump will offer. They will both declare victory and return to screwing up their respective countries in other ways.
Throw in the fact that the two countries are integrated in every possible meaningful way (families, economies, militaries, culturally to mention a few), and I find the notion of a permanently altered 'relationship' based on 'broken trust' by this US administration incredibly myopic and bound to a very narrow set of contentious issues, as if the point is a 'duh' moment of realization. Sure, the geopolitical arena is changing and - surprising to some, I guess - we find Canada is not immune. How best to adapt to this reality - especially in an election - is a really important topic... one that requires important understanding about the issues and challenges ahead and how to prepare to meet them. It might even be a topic for a podcast or two.
But when we are presented with the 'criticism' (and facial alterations to back up the point) that one would have to be a complete moron to even question this encapsulating assertion that the fundamental relationship has irrevocably been altered into a permanent divorce (not for one second do I believe this to be the case), I have to furrow my brow. Well, sure, maybe it is an issue of degree and maybe the reasons for recognizing this change within the context of that reality of integration needs to be better understood. You know... through honest inquiry like respectful discussion, listening, and speaking. Maybe even being introduced by political experts and the media that reports on them about various ramifications and potential effects - rather than being called stupid for questioning the blanket announcement that has vast consequences. Who care, right?
Adaptation to changing circumstances is a very real problem made even worse when one assumes we're no longer integrated when we are in fact and in every way. How we respond with national policy I think IS vitally important to the health of the country and the welfare of its people having to adapt. But this need for adaptation exists far beyond just an administration's current disagreeable polices (that have supposedly 'broken the trust behind the relationship') and I think it needs far more conversation than a dismissive handwave and insult by media that have national audiences.
Maybe I'm unreasonable thinking that finding good solutions to real problems that have evolved over time to the point of so many reported 'crises' Canadians are subjected to by barrage every new day usually requires correctly identifying fundamental problems that led us here in the first place. How do we smartly try to correct? How do we do it politically with an integrated neighbour? Handwaving the problem away because one selects the criteria that best fits one's prior beliefs (he or she MADE me divorce him or her) is not, in my limited experience, a productive method. In fact, it often results in allowing a problem to go unaddressed while it usually causes additional problems time to develop. Especially partisan divisiveness (that's where the blame game in politics always leads). I know I am very easily fooled when I use this method (the Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup because I really, Really REALLY believe they will!) but I understand its allure. And it often makes me feel pretty good participating in this method... right up until I'm sitting at home watching some other team hoist the Cup (coming up on 60 year anniversary, too!). But, hey, next year will be different... because I believe it will and anyone who disagrees must be a moron. Yeah, that handwaving blame game will fix the problem this time - the one shared by the Leafs and so many Canadians today. Duh.
The point is that the United States under Donald Trump has taken the habit of ignoring treaty obligations to a new level. This means that the country is no longer trustworthy.
What's more, the Democratic Party is likely going to try to reshape itself to meet the MAGA movement half way, likely because the Party's grandees believe they must, if they are to survive as a politically relevant force in the United State.
Finally, the Americans have made it damned clear that they really do not believe in liberalized trade and investment flows--and will likely remain that way until it becomes very clear that protectionism and autarky don't actually add to prosperity.
The Conservatives are arrayed against historic forces they cannot overcome.
The LPC is the party of the historic Canadian core/heartland (Laurentia in Canadian parlance). And, like all national cores or heartlands, this is the place where Canadian nationalism is felt most intensely. Ontarians are far more Cdn nationalist than any other part of the country, because they benefit most from Confederation.
The CPC, meanwhile, is the party of the strongest bloc in the periphery. The west is the least nationalist Anglo-part of the country, because it suffers the most from Confederation. Thus, the CPC will never be more convincingly nationalist than the LPC. I am speaking of federal parties here and not provincial ones, which operate on different axes.
The Liberals try to make every election, and frame every issue, through the lens of Canadian identity. Because they know it’s a winner for them.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, need to frame every issue in such a way as to make voters (particularly those in Ontario) forget about Canadian nationalism. Win on the policy merits, not on who is more pro-Canadian.
Justin Trudeau made Conservatives’ lives relatively easy in two ways:
1) He made such a hash of the economy, that even Canadian nationalists had no interest in voting for him again.
2) He attacked Canadian nationalism and Canadian identity for years, thus throwing away the best advantage the Liberals had.
I argue that #2 explains why the Poillievre Tories reached the mid-40s in polls. He looked more Canadian nationalist than Trudeau… because he wasn’t constantly apologizing for Canadian history.
Now, however, with a fresh coat of paint and Donald Trump south of the border forcing the election to be about Canadian nationalism…. The Conservatives are in an impossible bind.
They can’t out jingo the Liberals with Carney running as Captain Canada. He can do this because he isn’t tarnished by the Residential School graves over response, and can seamlessly re-adopt Canadian nationalism as the ethos of the Liberals as if the last five years didn’t happen. Meanwhile, Carney has basically lifted the most important parts of the CPC platform.
The Tories are not the party of Canadian nationalism because they are the party of the hinterland/periphery, and this election demands they be the party of Canadian nationalism. And they can’t run on policy, because it is hard to distinguish their policies from the Liberals now that Carney has brought sanity to the Liberals.
Not to mention the total collapse of the NDP and maybe Bloc.
This isn’t Poillievre’s fault. Donald Trump has forced this election to be about things that are right in the Liberal wheelhouse. No periphery party in the world would be in a position to win an election like this.
Laurentia as you call it consists of Ontario and Quebec. You are correct that they have most benefitted from Confederation but I submit you are totally wrong about the level on nationalism. The prairies and BC who have been raped by Quebec and the Maritimes and Ontario have yet to hold any referenda on separatism unlike Laurentia has done twice. This may change with the election of Carney and the LPC.
One thing that is being missed is the massive pendulum swing.
Trudeau represented a significantly left leader. Singh is a significantly left leader. That vote has utterly collapsed. Carney and PP are essentially running on the same platform, but one has a better campaign staff. They have combined almost 80% of the vote.
Eby desperately swung right in BC after governing left and managed to hang on.
There has been a huge change. We will see more of this after the election.
I don't see it. The Liberals have always been the center. They can go center, center left and center right and they are good at reading what the people want. This is why the govern about 70-75% of the time.
The Progressive Conservatives were center right to right with some hard right crazies and that always hurt them. The PCs are dead now and the alt right took the Tory name. All that is left is the Libs somewhere around center and the alt right cons. The pendulum swung when Reform left the PCs 30-40 yrs ago.
Currently they have a similar platform except that PP is obnoxious and liked by no one. Carney comes across as calm, reliable, dad. PP comes across as a 17 yr old high school bully. That looks good in high school and it might look okay at question period, but when your looking for someone to negotiate your future, you are not calling on the 17 yr old.
Carney said he would extend dental to everyone, and PP said he would allow you to put an extra 5 or 6k in your TFSA. Given that most people don't have money to put in their TFSA, which promise do you think matters to most people?
PP is flying an airplane, he has the throttles locked forward and he has the stick pushed all the way forward and the plane and all its riders are saying "Pull up Pull up Pull up" PP and Jenni are not listening and are not interested in listening.
Chantel Hébert has said today that lots of people in Con circles are trying to tell them but when anyone says anything to the leadership they are told: "Thanks for the information, you can show yourself out, don't come back"
PP could still make it but he is likely going to have to find pictures of Carney torturing small cute furry animals and they surely do not exist. It is not St Carney by any means but calling him out on plagiarism on his PHD thesis is not going to do it.
Great podcast. So, four more years of the same Liberal government because it's just a new leader and the same old bunch for the past ten years. I sure would like Carney to be asked what his plan for eliminating government by PMO might be. I'd love to hear an answer.
We are lying to ourselves if we think we can negotiate with POTUS. Everyone knows this, right? Because if the ballot question is 'who is best to negotiate with Trump', the answer is nobody. Nada. We could ask Jesus to come down from heaven and negotiate on our behalf and it would change nothing. Tariff war continues. Threats to our sovereignty will continue. So, for me, the ballot question is who has the chops to take take on the way things are now. Now the way things were. Those days are over as Mr. Carney pointed out.
Instead of wasting time sloganeering axe the tax since forever, Conservatives could have focused exclusively on the fact that the world just changed overnight and people are freaked out. They're scared. People I know who have never uttered a word about politics in their lives
are now talking about it and asking questions: What will this do to my home value? My investments? My job? The kid's future? What about that housing shortage issue?
So much wasted time. It must be the infighting because if the Conservatives cannot win this election, even with a minority, well, it's not us. It's you. Go away now please.
Also, I agree with Matt: if they don't win - I think the party will split apart again. Finally, I fully expect Alberta to flex its muscle because Canada needs Alberta more than Alberta needs Canada. We can scoff at it, make fun of it, whatever we want but it doesn't take away from the fact that 30% of Albertans want out. That is not a tiny number.
I grew up in Calgary during the NEP years It. Was. @#$%. Awful. I don't think most Canadians truly understand this or worse, they don't care.
I don't think the Liberals about Trump. Its about winning. Something which I forgot as Trump tore through everything. Less about doing what's right and more about pandering to the Credential class of GVR, GTA and MTL.
Matt isn’t voting and Jen spoils her ballots. What a statement on the poor political system we have. Do you think a proportional representation voting system would be better for our country?
All politicians are gun shy about reopening the Constitution. At some point, they will have no choice as the more demographically and economic dynamic parts of the country won't accept a political system frozen I think the time from the early 1900s.
They'll give it another look, then win a majority, then go back on their word like Trudeau did. Short of a crisis on the level of one of those times France needed a new republic - probably worse - FPTP is invulnerable no matter how lousy it is.
I am wondering what the ramifications would be for western Canada with a Liberal majority government with Carney stepping back on his commitments for energy corridors following the election.
If Carney does not follow though with his promises, which are essentially taken straight from the Conservative platform (good on him for recognizing a good idea when he sees one and being humble enough to incorporate it), we will have the National unity crisis Premier Smith alludes to.
Carney has perfect cover for talking up power corridors and then stand by and watch it fizzle: a lack of private capital investment, due to mistrust in government policy and the lingering stench of getting screwed over by the same government policies.
It’s not reasonable to think that the federal government is going to get into the hard costs of building pipelines or electricity transmission infrastructure. (Well, I might hedge on electricity transmission if it involves windmills or solar panels.) Private capital will have to be raised, and based on sound economics that will pay a return on investment. LNG pipelines will be more attractive than oil pipelines, as my understanding is that the business potential is far higher than oil.
Nice episode. I'm not sure what Pierre and the Conservatives are doing here: I thought the "Canada First" speech was great, but they failed to build on it at all and seem to have regressed.
I don't even think Pierre has to abandon true blue principles. Justify major income tax reform as a way to fight brain drain to the US and build our own Sillicon Valley. Talk about fighting housing affordability as critical for national unity (Sabrina Maddeux wrote a good article about this in the Star). Promote a pro-gun agenda on national security grounds. Talk about a real plan to beef up our military, intelligence, etc. Explain that in this time of crisis we need to refocus government spending and can't be spending money on frivolous things like Family Feud Canada. Talk about the carbon tax making us unable to compete with the US. Compare Carney's "carbon tax adjustment" to Trump's tarrifs. Talk about the national security need to speed up resource development. Attack the Liberals for leaving us weak and divided . Attack Carney for being weak and spineless, whether its moving his firm to the US, backing out of the TVA debate, withering for years on whether to run for politics, etc ("Carney's afraid to do x and we expect him to negotiate with Trump", etc).
Even when they seem to be on the right track like attacking Carney for moving Brookfield to New York,they end the ads with childish insults and names (the "sneaky Mark Carney" with the Daily Show cut is especially bad). As the Line has mentioned, Pierre could probably lean into being an asshole. Canadians loved Don Cherry: he may have been an asshole, but he was our asshole. I could easily see Pierre being a similarly obnoxiously pro-Canadian leader who appears best suited to handle Trump. Instead, stylistically he looks more like a petty teenager, while being wishy-washy on MAGA and not producing meaningful policy proposals.
I was leaning towards voting for him a couple months ago, and was like 95% of the way there after the Canada First speech, but I'm increasingly disappointing in this campaign: when the rubber hit the road he didn't step up to the moment.
Canada First? Sounds just like America First. PP will not call out Trump because a lot of his supporters like Trump. This could be as high as 85-90% of the base. PP can not attack his base because then they will leave for Max at PPC.
PP his toxic friend Jenni have misread the room. Where is his team? Where are the stars with experience. His plane does not have Conservative Party of Canada on it, it has "Pierre Poilievre" on it. What is he going to do? Run the entire country himself. It is too reminiscent of the Harper Government ™
The accusations of the Conservative base being 85-90% Trump supporters is ridiculous. Conservative supporters are among the most patriotic Canadians in the country, and always have been. Full stop. It was Trudeau and the Liberals that denigrated Canadian history and patriotism and explained Canada away as a “post-national state.” Conservatives reject this narrative. The Conservative base is now viscerally rejecting Trump.
The fact PP is not leaning into the policies and rhetoric attached to a strong, independent and prosperous Canada is 100% on his campaign. Not on the Conservative base.
1) So Mark Carney is on a temporary leave of absence from Brookfield. While he plays around as a temp PM of Lieberals. How cute. For a worsening dystopia, vote for Lieberals and Marx Carnage.
2) it is not the Conservatives and PP who are effing up their chances. This election and the chance for a real change from Liebranos and their destructive policies is being effed up by those voters who have the amnesiac mind of a toddler.
If the theory of Ford and O'Toole being of the same "faction" of Conservative Party, then why did Ford tell his MPP not to help out CPC campaign in 2021?
Mr. Carney’s statement IS a change in policy if it’s a reflection of what the LPC *wants* for the future.
ie. “We don’t care if four years from now you elect Michelle Obama as president with a Democratic majority in the Senate and her first action is to request a state visit, we no longer want to have close ties with the USA because WE DO NOT LIKE YOU. We will congratulate you for being less stupid, but we’re still keeping you at a distance, so go away now!”
The LPC wanting a more distant relationship with the US and working toward that regardless of what Americans want or do is a change.
Canada doesn't have the teeth to fight both US and China. If he wanted to de-couple with US, then he would have to kiss Xi's boots, NO other choice, period! All the rest trading partners are negligible.
I think that Carney proved today that he is not going to grovel. Trump was respectful. Do you think he would treat a yappy Chihuahua like PP with any respect. I certainly don't .
Actually the Liberals did well with USMCA. Who could predict that a mad man would get elected in the USA and trash the deal he himself signed and then declare a trade war with the entire world, abandon all US allies and then ally with Trump. Trump is a black swan event and nothing can prepare you for that.
This was the first time I've seen the video of a podcast, and it was fun to watch.
- I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw Carney's statement about the old relationship with the US being over as nothing more dramatic than a coroner signing a death certificate.
- I *still* have dreams about having to go back to take more courses at U of T. "But I live in Quebec City! I have a wife and family! I'm a tenured professor, for pete's sake!"
- The Carney plagiarism thing is even less of a nothingburger than what you suggest. The quotes cited in the NP piece are sloppy paraphrases of Porter's work, but the actual contribution of his thesis was to go beyond what Porter did. It would have been a much bigger deal if he had lifted the extensions from someone else, but no-one seems to claim that he did.
- This one bit is extremely silly:
“The setting for the game is a pure exchange economy with a finite number of states.” —
H.S. Shin, “News Management and the Value of Firms,” The RAND Journal of Economics,
1994, p. 60.
“The setting for the game is a pure exchange economy with a continuous number of
states.”
The thing is, a model with a finite number of states is a very different from a model with a
continuum of states: the math is very different, and is typically more challenging. It doesn't
matter that the sentences resemble each other, because they're talking about totally
different things.
- I've frequently criticised the CPC for not making more of an effort to build up its intellectual capital during its decade in opposition. It's true that there isn't much in the way of formal infrastructure for that sort of thing, but there's a lot in the way of free advice out there if you're not afraid to be told things you don't want to hear. The Liberals absolutely crushed the 2015 campaign because they had asked for policy advice from some smart people who weren't necessarily partisan Liberals, and came up with a bullet-proof platform that was in many ways a departure from Liberal orthodoxy. (They drifted back to their old ways once in power.) I've always been surprised and disappointed that the Conservatives never tried to do the same.
The Conservative Empire Clubbies diss Pierre (who, rightfully, can’t stand them), he loses, and they embrace and replace with one of theirs, Doug Ford. However, in the next four years under PM Carnage, (TY Easterners!) this country nosedives to (net) zero improvement on GDP/Capita, health care, inequality reduction, affordable housing, childcare that works, metrics that we the people care about.
"And thus far, it's all unfolding to Mark Carney's advantage."
And to Canada's detriment. I can't wait to see how Carney's "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism" (https://markcarney.ca/media/2025/01/mark-carney-presents-plan-for-change-on-consumer-carbon-tax) drives the cost of living for Canadians even higher. Because that's just what we need, right as we are trying to pivot to other trading partners in an attempt to reduce our dependnce upon our main trading partner, the one Carney just announced that we are effectively done with.
And would like to know how he is going to make Canada into a clean energy super power....and what does a green energy super power look like?
RE: "....and what does a green energy super power look like?" Like a mined out dirty hellscape covered with wind and solar farms with no birds. Skeletal undernourished serfs crowd 15-minute shanty towns. Over yonder behind the multilayered barbed wire fences is one of the heavily protected white castles serviced by the serfs, that is where fuckers like Carney live.
Soylent Green…
I think it is pretty obvious that being nasty is not a trait that most Canadians find appealing. At this very moment the cons have gone from a projection of 220 seats to a projection of 127 seats. eh? What's 93 seats among friends. The libs have gone from projected complete wipeout to a current projection of 187 seats.
As Kory Teneycke said, PP has a likability issue and a few smiles is not going to change that. Most normal women detest the guy. Quebec hates him, and right now in Ontario, the Libs have 2x the seat projection the cons do. It only took 12 weeks and the bloom was off the rose as soon as Trudeau stepped down. Carney winning just enhanced what we were seeing.
Being an obnoxious 17 yr old only takes you to far. You can't make it to the big chair by having all of Quebec and most of Ontario hate you. Yes when they had no where to go people went to the Cons but the NDP voters is not about to let the CPC take over. They are switching to the Libs and quick and they will stay there for this election.
We have been hearing doom and gloom forever. We are still here, we are still fighting and making a living.
We could have other trade partners, but that is up to business to do. The governments of the day, created free trade deals and Canadian business has not stepped up to take advantage of them.
As for the productivity gap, well if you take the oil sands out of the mix, Canada has the same productivity gains as the USA does. The oil sands is a sunset industry and so they are not going to invest. Just drill and rip.
That "obnoxious 17 yr old" would have won handily, if not for a truly loathsome PM being replaced by a slippery, evasive so-called "outsider" who shamelessly passes off other people's policies and work as his own, while taking credit for things he didn't do or overstating his role in efforts he contributed to.
Canada finding other trading partners to replace the US isn't just up to private interests. Government needs to move in that direction as well, with dispatch. Our supply-managed industries are one thing hurting us in that regard, a barrier which if left up to private interests will likely never be removed.
Encouraging investment in Canada by foreign industries and businesses is another effort that government needs to play a key role in. Almost a decade of disastrous Liberal rule has left Canada uncompetitve, with an astounding amount of capital flight to the US.
I think you will find an awful lot of people disagreeing with you that the oil sands are a sunset industry. Hydrocarbons are globally much in demand, for energy as well as for manufacturing, in both oil and natural gas form. With the oil sands comprising 97% of Canada's proven reserves, and being the world's third largest, I don't think they are something we can just turn our backs on. Oil is a resource crucial to our civlization which accounted for a tenth of Canada's GDP in 2023. Per the productivity issues of Canada's oil and gas industry, you can lay most of the blame for that at the feet of the regulatory barriers and policy decisions created by the Trudeau government in their decade of destruction.
O&G are absolutely not a "sunset industry", they are still indispensible for commercial and industrial uses. Sure maybe one day we'll switch to a better alternative, but throughout history nobody has ever forced a transition to a different energy source, this happens organically when a superior source is discovered. Nobody had to be forced to stop heating their house with a woodstove or coal furnace and switch to natgas, it was just better and cheaper and cleaner. Nobody had to be forced to stop lighting their home with whale oil lamps. That punitive and coercive measures are required shows the problems with the "green transition"
I like your perspective but this “The oil sands is a sunset industry and so they are not going to invest.” Is flat out incorrect. The reason investment has not happened is simply C-69.
I’ll challenge you on this.
1. What replaces hydrocarbons as a reliable energy source. And what is the time frame to build out that replacement if it exists?
2. Plastics are ubiquitous in modern society. From the device you’re using to read this, to the cloths you wear and the building materials in your home. These are not being replaced or phased out anytime soon - there are no replacements.
We will see. If Albertans really believed the tar sands was to be a going concern forever, then why did they not build an upgrader refinery.
The most expensive oil in the world is the tar sands. If electric cars and trucks take off, oil needs will go down drastically and this oil will be left in the ground.
Why not build an upgrader? These are thin margin operations that take a long time to make back their capital investment. Nobody is going to do that in a hostile political environment that could take out the investment on a whim. Also Canada heavy crude is not the most expensive oil in the world, US fracked oil is.
Also, if EVs take off you have another problem. This will likely increase the electrical system demand by 40% - 50% and to increase the system capacity is going to cost a lot of money. You could replace ICE vehicles in places which have a surplus of hydro power such as Quebec or Norway but it would simply displace GHG emissions to areas which would not get the hydro.
It is simple to create ideas but when you look at the costs vs the energy requirements, a lot of them are simply unrealizable.
Sands been running for 50 yrs and no upgrader. They take a big discount because of the fact the product is low quality.
As I said, this is the most expensive oil in the world. We will always use oil for plastics and such, but once cars are electric, demand will crater. Do you not remember Covid? Oil went negative because they had too much. The most difficult oil to refine will be the first dropped.
Actually oil sands operators take a bigger discount because of a lack of pipeline capacity. Upgraders don't help with that. Also heavy fractions left over after upgrading still have to go somewhere and if you do in Alberta you have shipping costs to other places.
The oil price during covid was misunderstood. Demand dropped sharply because people stopped travelling but the world wide supply chain was full so oil had no where to go temporarily. This was the "spot" price however which only affected a minor amount of the oil being traded. Canada heavy competes with Venezuelan and Mayan which have similar difficulties.
You did not address my first question.
Also the market for Hydrocarbons is a world market. Canada can drop its consumption to zero and this would barely make blimp in world demand. The vast majority of the world’s economies by size are not taking meaningful action to decrease their hydrocarbon consumption, or decarbonize their grids either.
But even if we take your argument at face value and say the future will be electric vehicles,
expanded power production capacity, and critical mineral mining are limiting factors in their growth. And to grow those limiting factors, we require diesel, steel, concrete, and heavy machinery. All of which requires - hydrocarbons.
Ain't nobody peddling hope right now. Shame.
There is no hope. The Liberal voters will get exactly what they deserve.
PP likeable issue? this is all partisan. No one has lower partisan likeable than Trump, yet he wins all swing states. You choose a person with the right policy, not husband. Many Canadian trust Carney is a good policy man, eh? OK, show me the evidence - which ONE policy is created by this guy and unique since election is announced?
Yes the defining trait of Canadian culture. You can be the biggest backstabbing pederastic genocidal asshole in the universe but as long as you’re polite curtsy and smile you are a true Canadian worthy of accolades and political victory.
I’m totally depressed right now. We are fucked.
Jen argues that Poilievre’s heart is not in this fight right now.
Carney may be the better person to interact with Trump but the Liberals will continue with their pattern of “the announcement is the accomplishment” and nothing will get done….. except we become the 51st state.
I prefer to have Poilievre who may be disliked by Trump but who I believe can get shit done for Canada.
I think Poilievre would make a good PM. Whatever people say about him, I don't doubt that he loves this country. Carney likes the Mr Dressup/Friendly Giant Canada of his youth. I don't blame him. I do too. But I am not in any way affiliated with the party that totally destroyed that in its desire to make it a post-national state.
There's something off about Carney. Why does he want to be PM? He doesn't look comfortable on the campaign and hates to be questioned. Will he just skip Question Period and call the shots from his office? If the libs lose the election, will he even stick around? I doubt it.
Even though I personally am a stickler re plagiarism, I don't think this issue is a voting issue. But I do find it interesting in that Carney entered the campaign with not just one but two stolen logos, then followed up with borrowed campaign promises. Again, not the end of the world, but it tells me that he thinks others' ideas are for the taking. The silver lining is that maybe his team will stop waving his Oxford thesis in our faces. It has no bearing on the job he's running for and was currently selected for by Liberals.
Conservatives should start poking him about 'plagiarized campaign promises' without even acknowledging the PHD thesis controversy, just because it's apparent this makes Carney really angry.
Chris Selley has a good piece on the Liberal Party’s reaction to the plagiarism
I saw that.
I completely agree with you. How after 10 years of the devastation to Canada wrought by the Liberals, Canadians could even consider supporting yet another Liberal government completely baffles me! Second last in OECD countries for GDP over the past 10 years, denouncement of our national symbols and heritage, rising violent crime rates, organized crime and money laundering through our real estate and banking industry (how about that $3 billion dollar fine for facilitating money laundering TD Bank??)….is it Stockholm Syndrome? Incredible
Clearly you aren't a brain dead boomer who owns a $2M house on a $75K peak lifetime annual income and who thinks hockey and bad free healthcare adds up to a national identity.
Well me too TBH. But cheer up, do something, attend a rally. I donated. Don't focus on the numbers too much. Its as much of a NDP collapse (thank god I'm not one of them) and Bloc destruction (hey guess who loves Canada now?) than 100% fucked up by PP.
In all honestly I wish they panicked more when jen was telling them to Panic. I also wish they go on some great long form podcasts, and cut through the MSM.
Way too much time spent on Carney’s PHD plagiarism issues. You both indicate it’s a nothing burger and then spend significant time dissecting. Perhaps an editor would have directed your focus to other more salient issues
We got rid of those. They were too much trouble.
That said, it did provide a glimpse into Matt’s anxiety, and I would fully support a Kickstarter for a Billy Madison-style movie where Matt is sent back to public school. :P
I disagree with The Line's acceptance of Carney's statement about Canada's relationship with the US being permanently altered. Trump has only been in power for two months and could be neutered within months as Congress worries about the midterms, citizens push back on price increases and various groups pursue legal action against Trump's imposition of tariffs. Despite delusions of being European, Canada will struggle to replace trade with its geographic neighbor that continues to be the world's largest and most innovative market. The allure of American products, services and capital will always pull Canada back.
I totally agree with the statement. Even if a normal President follows him - the trust is broken. We would be fools to revert to the old status quo after that.
I'm afraid that we will prove by this elections that were are fools and revert to the old status quo.
America's relationship with the entire world is finished. No one will ever trust them again. No one. Oh everyone will do business with them.... but no one will trust them. Afterall the current presidents signature on a document he negotiate means nothing. Why would the next signature mean anything?
Trump leaves, someone reasonable comes in, new deals made and then Vance makes a come back and poof. All gone again.
No America wanted to be America First, now it is America Alone. China and Russia are just laughing
It would help if Congress repeals or significantly amends the International Emergency Economic Powers Act which has been enabling Trump to tariff at will.
The big reason he's doing this so much is it's the most powerful thing he can do unilaterally other than start a literal shooting war (60 days without congressional approval woo!)
It would help if the Republican congress were not Trump lap dogs. They had their spines removed.
Yah, my response to hearing that line was a reflexive snort and to exclaim "bullshit!" before forgetting about it. I was also surprised that this got so much attention.
It's obvious the US will not benefit from radically breaking with the status quo, and Canada absolutely can't survive any sort of protracted trade war. There are structural factors piling up against Trump's Bizarro World trade agenda back home.
Carney (assuming he wins, let's not lose all hope) is going to make a deal with the US the minute he gets into power, on whatever terms Trump will offer. They will both declare victory and return to screwing up their respective countries in other ways.
Exactly
Throw in the fact that the two countries are integrated in every possible meaningful way (families, economies, militaries, culturally to mention a few), and I find the notion of a permanently altered 'relationship' based on 'broken trust' by this US administration incredibly myopic and bound to a very narrow set of contentious issues, as if the point is a 'duh' moment of realization. Sure, the geopolitical arena is changing and - surprising to some, I guess - we find Canada is not immune. How best to adapt to this reality - especially in an election - is a really important topic... one that requires important understanding about the issues and challenges ahead and how to prepare to meet them. It might even be a topic for a podcast or two.
But when we are presented with the 'criticism' (and facial alterations to back up the point) that one would have to be a complete moron to even question this encapsulating assertion that the fundamental relationship has irrevocably been altered into a permanent divorce (not for one second do I believe this to be the case), I have to furrow my brow. Well, sure, maybe it is an issue of degree and maybe the reasons for recognizing this change within the context of that reality of integration needs to be better understood. You know... through honest inquiry like respectful discussion, listening, and speaking. Maybe even being introduced by political experts and the media that reports on them about various ramifications and potential effects - rather than being called stupid for questioning the blanket announcement that has vast consequences. Who care, right?
Adaptation to changing circumstances is a very real problem made even worse when one assumes we're no longer integrated when we are in fact and in every way. How we respond with national policy I think IS vitally important to the health of the country and the welfare of its people having to adapt. But this need for adaptation exists far beyond just an administration's current disagreeable polices (that have supposedly 'broken the trust behind the relationship') and I think it needs far more conversation than a dismissive handwave and insult by media that have national audiences.
Maybe I'm unreasonable thinking that finding good solutions to real problems that have evolved over time to the point of so many reported 'crises' Canadians are subjected to by barrage every new day usually requires correctly identifying fundamental problems that led us here in the first place. How do we smartly try to correct? How do we do it politically with an integrated neighbour? Handwaving the problem away because one selects the criteria that best fits one's prior beliefs (he or she MADE me divorce him or her) is not, in my limited experience, a productive method. In fact, it often results in allowing a problem to go unaddressed while it usually causes additional problems time to develop. Especially partisan divisiveness (that's where the blame game in politics always leads). I know I am very easily fooled when I use this method (the Leafs are going to win the Stanley Cup because I really, Really REALLY believe they will!) but I understand its allure. And it often makes me feel pretty good participating in this method... right up until I'm sitting at home watching some other team hoist the Cup (coming up on 60 year anniversary, too!). But, hey, next year will be different... because I believe it will and anyone who disagrees must be a moron. Yeah, that handwaving blame game will fix the problem this time - the one shared by the Leafs and so many Canadians today. Duh.
The point is that the United States under Donald Trump has taken the habit of ignoring treaty obligations to a new level. This means that the country is no longer trustworthy.
What's more, the Democratic Party is likely going to try to reshape itself to meet the MAGA movement half way, likely because the Party's grandees believe they must, if they are to survive as a politically relevant force in the United State.
Finally, the Americans have made it damned clear that they really do not believe in liberalized trade and investment flows--and will likely remain that way until it becomes very clear that protectionism and autarky don't actually add to prosperity.
Which could be years and years.
Unless they seize power.
The Conservatives are arrayed against historic forces they cannot overcome.
The LPC is the party of the historic Canadian core/heartland (Laurentia in Canadian parlance). And, like all national cores or heartlands, this is the place where Canadian nationalism is felt most intensely. Ontarians are far more Cdn nationalist than any other part of the country, because they benefit most from Confederation.
The CPC, meanwhile, is the party of the strongest bloc in the periphery. The west is the least nationalist Anglo-part of the country, because it suffers the most from Confederation. Thus, the CPC will never be more convincingly nationalist than the LPC. I am speaking of federal parties here and not provincial ones, which operate on different axes.
The Liberals try to make every election, and frame every issue, through the lens of Canadian identity. Because they know it’s a winner for them.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, need to frame every issue in such a way as to make voters (particularly those in Ontario) forget about Canadian nationalism. Win on the policy merits, not on who is more pro-Canadian.
Justin Trudeau made Conservatives’ lives relatively easy in two ways:
1) He made such a hash of the economy, that even Canadian nationalists had no interest in voting for him again.
2) He attacked Canadian nationalism and Canadian identity for years, thus throwing away the best advantage the Liberals had.
I argue that #2 explains why the Poillievre Tories reached the mid-40s in polls. He looked more Canadian nationalist than Trudeau… because he wasn’t constantly apologizing for Canadian history.
Now, however, with a fresh coat of paint and Donald Trump south of the border forcing the election to be about Canadian nationalism…. The Conservatives are in an impossible bind.
They can’t out jingo the Liberals with Carney running as Captain Canada. He can do this because he isn’t tarnished by the Residential School graves over response, and can seamlessly re-adopt Canadian nationalism as the ethos of the Liberals as if the last five years didn’t happen. Meanwhile, Carney has basically lifted the most important parts of the CPC platform.
The Tories are not the party of Canadian nationalism because they are the party of the hinterland/periphery, and this election demands they be the party of Canadian nationalism. And they can’t run on policy, because it is hard to distinguish their policies from the Liberals now that Carney has brought sanity to the Liberals.
Not to mention the total collapse of the NDP and maybe Bloc.
This isn’t Poillievre’s fault. Donald Trump has forced this election to be about things that are right in the Liberal wheelhouse. No periphery party in the world would be in a position to win an election like this.
Laurentia as you call it consists of Ontario and Quebec. You are correct that they have most benefitted from Confederation but I submit you are totally wrong about the level on nationalism. The prairies and BC who have been raped by Quebec and the Maritimes and Ontario have yet to hold any referenda on separatism unlike Laurentia has done twice. This may change with the election of Carney and the LPC.
Outstanding analysis. Wish I could give this 100 likes.
One thing that is being missed is the massive pendulum swing.
Trudeau represented a significantly left leader. Singh is a significantly left leader. That vote has utterly collapsed. Carney and PP are essentially running on the same platform, but one has a better campaign staff. They have combined almost 80% of the vote.
Eby desperately swung right in BC after governing left and managed to hang on.
There has been a huge change. We will see more of this after the election.
I don't see it. The Liberals have always been the center. They can go center, center left and center right and they are good at reading what the people want. This is why the govern about 70-75% of the time.
The Progressive Conservatives were center right to right with some hard right crazies and that always hurt them. The PCs are dead now and the alt right took the Tory name. All that is left is the Libs somewhere around center and the alt right cons. The pendulum swung when Reform left the PCs 30-40 yrs ago.
Currently they have a similar platform except that PP is obnoxious and liked by no one. Carney comes across as calm, reliable, dad. PP comes across as a 17 yr old high school bully. That looks good in high school and it might look okay at question period, but when your looking for someone to negotiate your future, you are not calling on the 17 yr old.
Carney said he would extend dental to everyone, and PP said he would allow you to put an extra 5 or 6k in your TFSA. Given that most people don't have money to put in their TFSA, which promise do you think matters to most people?
PP is flying an airplane, he has the throttles locked forward and he has the stick pushed all the way forward and the plane and all its riders are saying "Pull up Pull up Pull up" PP and Jenni are not listening and are not interested in listening.
Chantel Hébert has said today that lots of people in Con circles are trying to tell them but when anyone says anything to the leadership they are told: "Thanks for the information, you can show yourself out, don't come back"
PP could still make it but he is likely going to have to find pictures of Carney torturing small cute furry animals and they surely do not exist. It is not St Carney by any means but calling him out on plagiarism on his PHD thesis is not going to do it.
PP is done
Great podcast. So, four more years of the same Liberal government because it's just a new leader and the same old bunch for the past ten years. I sure would like Carney to be asked what his plan for eliminating government by PMO might be. I'd love to hear an answer.
We are lying to ourselves if we think we can negotiate with POTUS. Everyone knows this, right? Because if the ballot question is 'who is best to negotiate with Trump', the answer is nobody. Nada. We could ask Jesus to come down from heaven and negotiate on our behalf and it would change nothing. Tariff war continues. Threats to our sovereignty will continue. So, for me, the ballot question is who has the chops to take take on the way things are now. Now the way things were. Those days are over as Mr. Carney pointed out.
Instead of wasting time sloganeering axe the tax since forever, Conservatives could have focused exclusively on the fact that the world just changed overnight and people are freaked out. They're scared. People I know who have never uttered a word about politics in their lives
are now talking about it and asking questions: What will this do to my home value? My investments? My job? The kid's future? What about that housing shortage issue?
So much wasted time. It must be the infighting because if the Conservatives cannot win this election, even with a minority, well, it's not us. It's you. Go away now please.
Also, I agree with Matt: if they don't win - I think the party will split apart again. Finally, I fully expect Alberta to flex its muscle because Canada needs Alberta more than Alberta needs Canada. We can scoff at it, make fun of it, whatever we want but it doesn't take away from the fact that 30% of Albertans want out. That is not a tiny number.
I grew up in Calgary during the NEP years It. Was. @#$%. Awful. I don't think most Canadians truly understand this or worse, they don't care.
I don't think the Liberals about Trump. Its about winning. Something which I forgot as Trump tore through everything. Less about doing what's right and more about pandering to the Credential class of GVR, GTA and MTL.
Kudos to the Liberals for spotting it.
Matt isn’t voting and Jen spoils her ballots. What a statement on the poor political system we have. Do you think a proportional representation voting system would be better for our country?
I'm wondering how many times the conservatives have to lose an election while winning the popular vote before they give that issue another look.
No. It is the grossly unfair Constitution that is the real problem.
All politicians are gun shy about reopening the Constitution. At some point, they will have no choice as the more demographically and economic dynamic parts of the country won't accept a political system frozen I think the time from the early 1900s.
They'll give it another look, then win a majority, then go back on their word like Trudeau did. Short of a crisis on the level of one of those times France needed a new republic - probably worse - FPTP is invulnerable no matter how lousy it is.
I am wondering what the ramifications would be for western Canada with a Liberal majority government with Carney stepping back on his commitments for energy corridors following the election.
If Carney does not follow though with his promises, which are essentially taken straight from the Conservative platform (good on him for recognizing a good idea when he sees one and being humble enough to incorporate it), we will have the National unity crisis Premier Smith alludes to.
Carney has perfect cover for talking up power corridors and then stand by and watch it fizzle: a lack of private capital investment, due to mistrust in government policy and the lingering stench of getting screwed over by the same government policies.
It’s not reasonable to think that the federal government is going to get into the hard costs of building pipelines or electricity transmission infrastructure. (Well, I might hedge on electricity transmission if it involves windmills or solar panels.) Private capital will have to be raised, and based on sound economics that will pay a return on investment. LNG pipelines will be more attractive than oil pipelines, as my understanding is that the business potential is far higher than oil.
Nice episode. I'm not sure what Pierre and the Conservatives are doing here: I thought the "Canada First" speech was great, but they failed to build on it at all and seem to have regressed.
I don't even think Pierre has to abandon true blue principles. Justify major income tax reform as a way to fight brain drain to the US and build our own Sillicon Valley. Talk about fighting housing affordability as critical for national unity (Sabrina Maddeux wrote a good article about this in the Star). Promote a pro-gun agenda on national security grounds. Talk about a real plan to beef up our military, intelligence, etc. Explain that in this time of crisis we need to refocus government spending and can't be spending money on frivolous things like Family Feud Canada. Talk about the carbon tax making us unable to compete with the US. Compare Carney's "carbon tax adjustment" to Trump's tarrifs. Talk about the national security need to speed up resource development. Attack the Liberals for leaving us weak and divided . Attack Carney for being weak and spineless, whether its moving his firm to the US, backing out of the TVA debate, withering for years on whether to run for politics, etc ("Carney's afraid to do x and we expect him to negotiate with Trump", etc).
Even when they seem to be on the right track like attacking Carney for moving Brookfield to New York,they end the ads with childish insults and names (the "sneaky Mark Carney" with the Daily Show cut is especially bad). As the Line has mentioned, Pierre could probably lean into being an asshole. Canadians loved Don Cherry: he may have been an asshole, but he was our asshole. I could easily see Pierre being a similarly obnoxiously pro-Canadian leader who appears best suited to handle Trump. Instead, stylistically he looks more like a petty teenager, while being wishy-washy on MAGA and not producing meaningful policy proposals.
I was leaning towards voting for him a couple months ago, and was like 95% of the way there after the Canada First speech, but I'm increasingly disappointing in this campaign: when the rubber hit the road he didn't step up to the moment.
Canada First? Sounds just like America First. PP will not call out Trump because a lot of his supporters like Trump. This could be as high as 85-90% of the base. PP can not attack his base because then they will leave for Max at PPC.
PP his toxic friend Jenni have misread the room. Where is his team? Where are the stars with experience. His plane does not have Conservative Party of Canada on it, it has "Pierre Poilievre" on it. What is he going to do? Run the entire country himself. It is too reminiscent of the Harper Government ™
The accusations of the Conservative base being 85-90% Trump supporters is ridiculous. Conservative supporters are among the most patriotic Canadians in the country, and always have been. Full stop. It was Trudeau and the Liberals that denigrated Canadian history and patriotism and explained Canada away as a “post-national state.” Conservatives reject this narrative. The Conservative base is now viscerally rejecting Trump.
The fact PP is not leaning into the policies and rhetoric attached to a strong, independent and prosperous Canada is 100% on his campaign. Not on the Conservative base.
"Conservative supporters are among the most patriotic Canadians in the country"
lol
I can see that from the actions of Danielle Smith.
I think it is pretty well established that the right wing loves authoritarian leaders.
LOL says the Liberal Party that prorogues government while Canada burns, to sort their sh*t out.
1) So Mark Carney is on a temporary leave of absence from Brookfield. While he plays around as a temp PM of Lieberals. How cute. For a worsening dystopia, vote for Lieberals and Marx Carnage.
2) it is not the Conservatives and PP who are effing up their chances. This election and the chance for a real change from Liebranos and their destructive policies is being effed up by those voters who have the amnesiac mind of a toddler.
If the theory of Ford and O'Toole being of the same "faction" of Conservative Party, then why did Ford tell his MPP not to help out CPC campaign in 2021?
At the time 1 - he was kissing Trudeau butt, 2 he's still pissed the CPC ignored his first campaign.
Mr. Carney’s statement IS a change in policy if it’s a reflection of what the LPC *wants* for the future.
ie. “We don’t care if four years from now you elect Michelle Obama as president with a Democratic majority in the Senate and her first action is to request a state visit, we no longer want to have close ties with the USA because WE DO NOT LIKE YOU. We will congratulate you for being less stupid, but we’re still keeping you at a distance, so go away now!”
The LPC wanting a more distant relationship with the US and working toward that regardless of what Americans want or do is a change.
Canada doesn't have the teeth to fight both US and China. If he wanted to de-couple with US, then he would have to kiss Xi's boots, NO other choice, period! All the rest trading partners are negligible.
Whoever wins the election is going to grovel at Trump's feet. It is the only option.
The Liberals failed miserably with USMCA.
I think that Carney proved today that he is not going to grovel. Trump was respectful. Do you think he would treat a yappy Chihuahua like PP with any respect. I certainly don't .
Actually the Liberals did well with USMCA. Who could predict that a mad man would get elected in the USA and trash the deal he himself signed and then declare a trade war with the entire world, abandon all US allies and then ally with Trump. Trump is a black swan event and nothing can prepare you for that.
The US found Freeland intractable, negotiated the deal with Mexico and then allowed Canada to join.
This was the first time I've seen the video of a podcast, and it was fun to watch.
- I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw Carney's statement about the old relationship with the US being over as nothing more dramatic than a coroner signing a death certificate.
- I *still* have dreams about having to go back to take more courses at U of T. "But I live in Quebec City! I have a wife and family! I'm a tenured professor, for pete's sake!"
- The Carney plagiarism thing is even less of a nothingburger than what you suggest. The quotes cited in the NP piece are sloppy paraphrases of Porter's work, but the actual contribution of his thesis was to go beyond what Porter did. It would have been a much bigger deal if he had lifted the extensions from someone else, but no-one seems to claim that he did.
- This one bit is extremely silly:
“The setting for the game is a pure exchange economy with a finite number of states.” —
H.S. Shin, “News Management and the Value of Firms,” The RAND Journal of Economics,
1994, p. 60.
“The setting for the game is a pure exchange economy with a continuous number of
states.”
The thing is, a model with a finite number of states is a very different from a model with a
continuum of states: the math is very different, and is typically more challenging. It doesn't
matter that the sentences resemble each other, because they're talking about totally
different things.
- I've frequently criticised the CPC for not making more of an effort to build up its intellectual capital during its decade in opposition. It's true that there isn't much in the way of formal infrastructure for that sort of thing, but there's a lot in the way of free advice out there if you're not afraid to be told things you don't want to hear. The Liberals absolutely crushed the 2015 campaign because they had asked for policy advice from some smart people who weren't necessarily partisan Liberals, and came up with a bullet-proof platform that was in many ways a departure from Liberal orthodoxy. (They drifted back to their old ways once in power.) I've always been surprised and disappointed that the Conservatives never tried to do the same.
So if the CPC couldn't come up with a good platform, why has Carney pulled up all their planks?
The Conservative Empire Clubbies diss Pierre (who, rightfully, can’t stand them), he loses, and they embrace and replace with one of theirs, Doug Ford. However, in the next four years under PM Carnage, (TY Easterners!) this country nosedives to (net) zero improvement on GDP/Capita, health care, inequality reduction, affordable housing, childcare that works, metrics that we the people care about.
And they replace the CPC leader again and the country elects the Liberals again...