Anti-Panel, Week 1: 'Even the NDP wouldn’t think that would win seats.'

As we approach the end of the first week, our Anti-Panel — though only reluctantly anti — weighs in on the first six days.

During the election, and then once after to wrap-up, The Line has assembled a panel of partisans, but fun ones! People we know and like. They’re going to help us analyze the campagin, but they’ve also agreed to give some honest feedback to their own parties. Though we suspect we might have to force them into that each week. We have Amanda Galbraith, partner at Oyster Group, offering a Conservative perspective; Kim Wright, principal and founder at Wright Strategy, bringing the NDP angle; and Jamie Carroll, self-described “Liberal hack” and political strategist, making the case for the Red team.

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The Line: So we're basically a week into this. Before we get into analyzing the campaigns themselves, just a generic question — how is the election itself unfolding, and is it what you expected?

Jamie Carroll: On the campaign itself, it looks to me like a good news/bad news thing. First, despite questions about Poilievre’s refusal to get security clearance (and on this I agree with Matt that at this point it is basically an own-goal fuelled by a massive stubborn streak — something the last PM showed from time to time), awareness about foreign interference seems to have made it less of an overt issue. I was living in Vancouver in ’21 and man, was it rampant.

As for bad news, despite the inarguable electoral benefit to my team thus far, the fact that the campaign is almost 100 per cent focused on Trump isn’t great in terms of addressing all the other shit the country needs to fix/improve on. It blows my mind that with the state of play of the health-care system in Ontario (along with most other provinces), Ford just got re-elected while literally promising to do fuck all to fix it. To get through a federal election without any serious discussion about the fate of our public health-care system either would be lunacy. Boomers aren’t going to die fast enough to save us, more’s the pity. And that’s just one example of issues being neglected.

Finally, I'm gonna call "bad harvest" on the current polling: I believe the data and the trends at the moment, but there's no way Pierre loses his seat at the end of this. Just don't believe it. So, will the Liberals win? Probably. Will it be a majority? Maybe, but wouldn't bet the farm. Should they discount the chance of fucking this up over the course of four more weeks? Abso-fucking-lutely not.

Amanda Galbraith: First, I anticipated being the one who swears the most on this panel, but clearly James is gunning for that title, so I'm going to cede it.

That being said — let’s fucking get into this thing.

Five days in, is it happening as I expected? Yes and no. Yes, in that I thought the U.S./tariff issue would dominate and drive the narrative. But I thought (hoped?) there might be space for something else until April 2nd. I was wrong. I think Jagmeet Singh could light himself on fire and announce he's in a thruple with both Green leaders (Elizabeth May and the other guy I just learned existed) and he still wouldn't get media coverage. It is tough out there right now to run a traditional campaign, and it's hard to punch through. You're seeing that on all sides but most acutely with the Conservatives. They're at a real disadvantage fighting through the noise of this thing against the Liberals. It's also shaping up as a two-way horse race that is not helpful to the Conservatives. We need the NDP to look alive! We also need the Bloc to get their mojo back in Quebec, but I have faith the latter will happen.

The visuals and rallies for the Conservatives have been top notch. The crowd sizes are insane: 4,500 in Hamilton, over 5,000 in B.C.. The B.C. crowd was so big it disrupted the cell network. I'm also told Pierre regularly gets stopped when he's out in public for pictures and hugs from Joe Public, blue-collar workers, ground crews at the airport, people thanking him for being their voice and making them feel heard. So that tells me that messaging has penetrated and is paying dividends.

I find it interesting how easily Carney has slipped into the role of PM when he is able to don it. But I am truly surprised at how terrible he is as a campaigner. Like, truly bad. He is either professorial and wooden, or chippy and condescending with the media. He can't remember star candidates’ names and the École Polytechnique gaffe was a real own-goal. Then there was the TVA about-face. But none of it seems to be sticking right now. I wonder if the cumulative effect will weigh him down at some point, or if Canadians will remain dazzled by his bonafides and the idea of him for another 31 days. But I do agree with James: it's way too early to call.

Kim Wright: Personally, I feel like I will spend the rest of my life explaining how top-line polling means fuck all on election night seat count, the aggregators are bullshit, and that the NDP’s ground game and voter efficiency are a real thing.

Honestly, the first week of the campaign has been exhausting and weird. It was a week that in some way felt more pre-writ than writ. In every campaign people are looking for a vibe check. Which means they are looking for authenticity, and honestly, the vibes are very off on this campaign.

Whether it has been Pierre’s very awkward attempts at smiling, no consistent message, and his tour sign fail that said “Axe The Sales,” “Tax The Homes,” or Mark Carney’s flipping through the briefing book to quote some sort of actuarial table to explain why he is running in Nepean (on top of all of Carney’s other gaffes, unforced errors, and colossal fuck ups like not knowing École Polytechnique) in week one.

Every day I find myself wanting to scream, “Why are you so awkward, bud?”

Then there were Conservative MPs who quietly pulled themselves out of the campaign, and over in Liberal land there was the crass politics of the unretiring ministers. Then there was my absolutely blow-a-gasket anger at former housing minister Sean Fraser’s abrupt reversal and return to politics after spending too much time with his family. His retirement speech in December spoke to the devastation of lost children, cancers, and heart disease and the need to spend more time with his children. Then when the polling looked better he and Carney pushed out the confirmed candidate.

While I did expect candidate shenanigans and weird social media posts, I did not have these on my bingo card.

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Carroll: I get to go again? Fun!

I was struck by the exchanges between Carney and Trump — starting with Carney's tone on Thursday in response to the latest tariff-based Trumpian travesty. He was firm and commanding and said what may be the most consequential thing about Canada-U.S. relations since 1988: the relationship as it was is over. That was a huge deal (even if it may have seemed obvious in some sense).

But to see that followed up by Trump asking for a phone call and dropping all the "governor" mishegas in reply was truly something. I'm not sure anyone knows what, but something changed.

Finally, because I'm a prick, I can't help but notice the epic shellacking Kory Teneycke is serving up to [CPC campaign leader] Jenni Byrne and Poilievre. As someone who lived through the Chrétien-Martin wars by the skin of his balls, I wish the Conservatives many happy returns.

Galbraith: On the Trump stuff — taking off my partisan hat — if we can professionalize and normalize relations with this administration, great. Anything would be an improvement from where things were at with Trudeau. But honestly, as a country, it feels like a weird cycle of abuse where Trump beats us up (auto tariffs to distract from Signalgate) and then is kinda nice to us … and we’re grateful. We need to stop that. And frankly, I remain highly skeptical the 51st-state bullshit is dead. Look at the insanity with Greenland this week. What I do hear is that, behind the scenes, the convos with Lutnick et al. are at least relatively straightforward (as much as they can be with this admin).

On the utterly unnecessary and ridiculous conservative civil war that is unhelpfully playing out in national media, the conservatives’ tendency to commit regicide the minute things go slightly awry is both legendary and idiotic. It shows a lack of discipline and it’s a tremendously shitty thing to do to all the people who have put their lives on hold to campaign and run. I have a personal rule: I don’t offer advice to campaigns unless asked because you have no idea what’s going on inside and what they’re dealing with. What I do know is multiple people from inside the war room and on the plane have reached out to me and they’ve all said the same thing: what’s being reported is genuinely not the vibe inside the campaign. And this is from people I know and trust. The campaign team is solid and they’re working their asses off.

Wright: Each day, the morning show hosts at my favourite country music radio station give updates on where the leaders are. Standard stuff, usually. But on Friday they said “For the second day in a row, Mark Carney has taken himself off the campaign trail.”

Why is this interesting? Because it recognizes that as a politician Carney hasn’t been very good on the campaign trail. So his team smartly shifted him over to the backdrop of being the prime minister calling a meeting.

But even then, Team Liberal dropped the ball. How the fuck did Carney and his team fail to answer basic questions like, did you call the White House? Did anyone speak to them? Did you leave a voicemail? Did anyone call you back? We got no, yes, maybe, hold on …. we’ll get back to you. These are not difficult questions.

It was similar to whether he would participate in the TVA debate. Why can’t we get a straight answer? I’m sure his team is begging him to please stop blowing the knucklehead shit.

Switching channels over to The Empire (Club) Strikes Back. I was at the Empire Club this week when Kory took to the stage and gave a masterclass in political destruction. I was in awe that it was happening so early and so publicly. In past elections, Jenni [Byrne] and Pierre were stealthier but no less vicious at attacking their past leaders during the campaign and disposing of them afterwards. We’ve all been watching the rumours and the chaos since. (For everyone getting too excited about this, remember Karma and Hubris are the mainstays in politics and will eventually bite us all in the ass.)

How did the CPC team combat Kory’s accusations? How are they battling back at Trump? How are they showing they have pivoted? How are they going to stop the alarms in the cockpit? Well holy fuck! Hang onto your hats, because this one is going to course correct everything … Pierre Poilievre’s “groundbreaking” election policy piece, with video, is to “ban tax breaks for CEOs taking corporate jets.”

Whaaaaatttt!??!? Even the NDP wouldn’t think that would win seats.

I’m going to need more coffee as we finally get out of week one.

The Line: I'm going to do the awkward part now and ask you to lean into the anti-panel conceit. Amanda has done this already with a message to some of the panicking CPCers. So for her, I'd ask her what she thinks one of the other campaigns has done well this week (she can pick). For Jamie and Kim: my question is what's one thing you guys think your teams need to do better in week two, now that week one is almost behind us?

Carroll: I think my guys had a good first week overall. Contrary to Kim's take, I think any PM would welcome a chance to look like a PM during a campaign — especially one who's new in the job and especially given where the public is at.

At the same time, I'd like to see the Red Team do some bigger events. They take a lot of time away from ground game but it's really the only area where they are looking "behind" Poilievre. There should be lots of places where Carney could pack in four or five thousand people, I would think. Show the mo'.

The French thing still worries me a bit. Carney is putting up huge numbers in Quebec at the moment, but no voter pool can change their minds faster than Quebec.

Now, I'm no francophone but I am more than 50 per cent Acadian, spent a long time working for Stéphane Dion and spent many a night trying to pick up in Montreal bars and I can tell ya, Carney's spontaneous French is merde. Sincerely hope they've filled the plane with Quebecers and that he's doing all his briefings and prep in French.

What's driving Liberal-wet dream seat projections at the moment isn't a low CPC number, it's the utter collapse of the Bloc and NDP. That's gotta be their focus.

Wright: I love the Anti-Panel for this. I am a team player through and through. And there are always things to do better. My advice for the NDP is to “stop playing small ball” for either the leader or the tour. For fuck’s sake, you’ve got to authentically set the tone!

Jagmeet is a scrappy, caring, compassionate, fun and good leader. He is a great dad and makes parliament work. He has had a real life that shaped him. He actually gives a fuck about people as people, not as voters. He is a helper. Jagmeet should be vulnerable, be real, and be bold. Jagmeet needs to show people that side of him. Show who he authentically is.

There are people around him that will walk through walls for him. Whatever that is, let Jagmeet Actually Be Jagmeet, let it out, show it on social, and live it authentically each day of this campaign.

LET PEOPLE SEE HIM FOR WHO HE ACTUALLY IS!

Yeah, he has faced hard times, and overcame them. Show that. Yeah, he is a New Democrat who also likes to dress well. That’s okay. Don’t be embarrassed by that or hope that Canada Proud will finally stop talking about the Rolex. Own your whole story!

Everyone I know had a dream thing that they wanted to get when they made it. A trip, a car, a house, a watch. You can be progressive and have nice things. I knew what my dream things were (and are). As a result, I’m just as comfortable in a ball gown or a suit as I am in hoodies.

I grew up as a poor kid. I am a New Democrat today because even though I was a poor kid growing up, the community I lived in, the public school education I received, and the public health care my Mom received for her heart and later for cancer, made sure I didn’t fall through the cracks. I want to make sure that is there for others.

To Jagmeet, the NDP pundits, and the team! It’s time to own your story and your space!

Galbraith: I would agree with Kim on where the NDP needs to improve — I watched Singh’s avail on Friday and he looked like he was running for student council. The visuals I saw I would expect from a city councillor, not an alleged PM-in-waiting. So I hope to God they do this because, candidly, even if the Conservatives run the greatest campaign in history, they can’t win with the NDP in single digits. The math just isn’t there.

Also, the Conservative policy Kim is taking shots at is actually a plan for travelling trades workers to write off their travel for work on their taxes. Which is part of the CPC’s efforts to attract blue-collar and union votes. Something Monte McNaughton (former minister in the Ford government and one of the architects of their successful rapprochement with unions) called “an important message for our heroic skilled trades workers who build Canada: We respect you, thank you, and are grateful for what you are going to build next.” I’m all for taking shots but this is not only smart politics, it’s good policy.

On my who did good this week, Carney had a good day on Friday. He does well off the campaign trail (as we’ve all noted) and the Liberals solidly drove the Trump stuff all day Thursday and Friday. That’s ground we know he wins on. Their plan to limit his exposure as much as they can is working. But this is still a campaign so he has to get better at the candidate part at some point … right?

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Stay tuned for the return of the Anti-Panel in one week.

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