Anti-Panel, Week 3: Finally, this actually feels like a campaign

On tired leaders, oppo buttons and prep for the debates to come.

During the election, and then once after to wrap-up, The Line has assembled a panel of partisans, but fun ones! People we know and like. They’re going to help us analyze the campaign, but they’ve also agreed to give some honest feedback to their own parties. Though we suspect we might have to force them into that each week. We have Amanda Galbraith, partner at Oyster Group, offering a Conservative perspective; Kim Wright, principal and founder at Wright Strategy, bringing the NDP angle; and Jamie Carroll, self-described long time Liberal hack and founder of Carroll & Co Consulting Inc., making the case for the Red team.

The Line: That was a weird week — it started quiet, as I think the campaign has been mostly quiet all along. And then it seemed to be getting dumb near the end of it. Lots of bullshit, as we covered in the Bullshit Bulletin. What did you guys think of the week that was?

Jamie Carroll: So, the phrase “flaming Mongolian pig fuck” gets thrown around a lot these days…

I'd say this was the first week of the real campaign — or at least the first week of what we would normally expect a campaign to look like. In particular, Trump, while still a major influence on campaigns and voters, wasn’t the only issue we talked about. Both the Liberals and Conservatives had significant, specific things to say about housing, affordability, and crime, for example. That’s good.

Both of those campaigns also hit pretty significant headwinds. I’ll start with Amanda’s tribe and say that I am shocked the Manning Conference (I don’t care — that’s what it will always be called in my head) wasn’t postponed. I’m more shocked that their star invite is one of the authors of Trump’s tariff policies! I’m less shocked that Kory Teneycke was uninvited from chairing a panel at the event, given his increasingly vicious filleting of Pierre Poilievre and Jenni Byrne. And I’m amused that CPC staffers and MPs were (apparently) ordered not to attend — and yet I’ve seen bushels of both wandering between the Shore Club, the Met, and the Chateau for two days…

But why in the name of Christ would the whole thing not have been moved by a month?!? I mean, in the most generous interpretation of events, why would you want people who should be out campaigning wasting their time dicking around trying to get laid in Ottawa?!? It immediately raises questions about whether or not those folks are, in fact, doing that, no? And if they’re not, is the division that we’ve all been seeing at a superficial level in the conservative “movement” (i.e., Kory stab stab stab) far, far deeper? Are the Manning folks actively trying to sabotage Poilievre? And finally, if they are, is it because he’s not pure enough for them, or because they think he fucked up what should have been a sure thing?

Damned if I know, but holy shit is it fun to shame-watch.

Now, as for my Liberal brethren: everyone who is surprised that Mark Carney is not great at the most parochial, bullshitty parts of political campaigns — raise your hands? Exactly. There is no doubt that Carney hates much of what he is being asked to do on the campaign trail. Anyone with an IQ above 55 who didn’t would necessarily be heavily medicated. But that’s the job he signed up for — you only get to do the statesman-like parts after you kiss babies in Moose Jaw. Sorry, not sorry.

I am, however, going to come to his defence on the notion that he’s being testy with reporters. First of all, if it’s Conservatives suggesting this (online and elsewhere), they can just fuck right off (sorry Amanda!!). Their guy is literally keeping journos in pens like it’s a petting zoo and calling reporters who ask questions from their cages “protestors.” So, no sympathy — or frankly, credibility — there.

But that is the key word to me: it is when Carney feels his credibility or character are questioned that he gets pissy. Again, I’m afraid that’s what you signed up for. Someone said to me that “he needs to think about media interviews like a shareholder call, not a board meeting,” and I think that’s right. Everything he says could move markets (i.e., votes).

But overall, Liberals should be pretty pleased with themselves. I think I’ve said from the start of this thing that their numbers were too high. What we’re seeing now is starting to seem more realistic — achievable for an actual outcome.

Next week is the real showdown. Two debates that will likely be preceded by both platform drops and shit-tons of oppo research. Everyone will be playing bugger-your-neighbour in trying to flatfoot the leaders before the debate (which I assume we’ll get into later…).

Frankly, I miss last week’s orgasm jokes.

Kim Wright: I charitably called this week on the trail the week of Wednesdays. Some want to call it hump week, but I think we exhausted those references after last week. That said, a lot of good, bad, and downright awkward happened this week. I will start, however, by saying Jamie has given us the understatement of the week—maybe the campaign. I can’t stop laughing at “Mark Carney is not great at the most parochial, bullshitty parts of political campaigns.” He’s really not good at being around the people, or journalists, or protestors, or even being accountable about what’s in his Scrooge McDuck-sized pile of money. The hardest thing for Carney seems to be an inability to be truthful about the knucklehead stuff. (Dude, there is no way Thunderstruck was your warm-up song during your minor hockey years. Because MATH!!!)

No wonder the Libs once again took him off the campaign trail to see to all of “prime ministerial things.” Yes, of course — things! At this point, it’s like the campaign equivalent of the friend you have call you with an “emergency” to get you out of a date you don’t want to be on.

To that end, here is my pro tip to Mr. Carney: since he’s been out of Canada for a while, do not challenge Bob Fife to bring receipts. I have seen CVS receipts that are shorter than what Bob will bring. Didn’t Liberals learn anything from SNC-Lavalin? Ooooh, speaking of SNC … Jody Wilson-Raybould made an appearance this week. She cheerfully and thoughtfully endorsed longtime NDP MP Don Davies in Vancouver Kingsway!

Speaking of NDPers I am excited about: welcome back to campaign life, Ruth Ellen Brosseau! Ruth Ellen is such an awesome example of people who were mocked and dismissed and turned into an amazing parliamentarian. May all future MPs take the job as seriously! Also, don’t be dicks. It’s called the House of Commons — it shouldn’t just be all failed insurance brokers, nepo babies, and those who have dinners with Prince Andrew. Another former MP/returning candidate I want to give a shoutout to is Ève Péclet. Ève is running in Outremont and gave birth to her first child moments before the writs were issued. Sending her much love on the trail and with her adorable baby.

Other weird shit this week — beyond the obvious Kory v. Jenni edition of Mortal Kombat — were the anonymous oppo buttons that were left in the washrooms at Manning, or whatever the fuck it is actually called now. Oppo buttons like this haven’t made an appearance in over a decade. And contrary to rumours … I don’t think they were dropped by Liberals. I think it was grumpy/creative Tories. There is an internal war/uprising coming in Conservative Land, and this will continue to spill heavily onto the campaign trail.

All in all, the worst part of this week is people thinking they were clever.

Worst examples of this: Andrew Scheer’s new Twitter ad about Liberals getting back with their ex — which would have been fine enough until he bizarrely asked about THE METH MAN, THE METH!

But for me, the absolutely fucking worst and most embarrassing fail this week was the Conservatives with the “Do you Believe in Polls?” flags and hoodies. Like … What The Actual Fuck, guys. This is a national campaign to lead a G7 nation, not a group of campus club rejects. Do better!

Carroll: I’mma let Amanda finish, but: REB was an excellent MP and there is an excellent chance I send her a donation.

And. I know for a fact those buttons came from "Liberals." 😬

Amanda Galbraith: So I appreciate that Jamie likes to stir up shit — and God knows it makes for fun gossip — but I can confirm his claims about bans and people being booted are not the case. I was not at the great conservative confab, which I also call the Manning Conference (but I still sometimes say ACC and Skydome), as I had more important things to do — it was my daughter’s first birthday!

I was also amused by the buttons. It caused me to lament the lack of any fun oppo pranks yet this campaign. I fondly recall in 2006 we somehow got the Liberal platform leaked to us. We made a zillion photocopies and replaced all the newspapers in those free community newspaper boxes outside the Liberal campaign HQ with copies of the platform (and we also leaked it to media). Ahhh, the olden days when campaigns had platforms.

As for this campaign — is it still happening? Because Mark Carney ... I'm sorry, I mean Prime Minister Carney — took another "break" Friday to convene a meeting of his Canada–U.S. cabinet committee. To do what, exactly, remains a mystery. He emerged from the meeting, made a 49-second statement to the media (I know this because I played the entirety of the clip on my radio show), struggled to do the same in French, and then marched off without taking any questions.

What did he say? Well, the economy is starting to slow ... and they talked about that, and told the bureaucrats they should prepare plans to support the next government — whoever they may be — through that. Riiiight. Sounds super critical. Now I’m not going to clutch my pearls about the caretaker convention, but of the last 20-odd campaign days, he’s spent seven taking these “breaks.” Some were absolutely necessary. Some — like Friday’s — not so much. Smart politics? Yes. But at this point, using the PM’s mantle as a bully pulpit against your opponents outside of a crisis is a cheap shot.

As for Team Blue, I thought the three strikes policy was great. Bail reform is desperately needed in this country, and they were smart to take that to the GTA (and Brampton in particular). Crime and public safety is a sword issue for us (someone else can explain the sword-and-shield analogy to the uninitiated). The Harper endorsement was excellent and should be a calming balm to those shaky boomers we need to win back.

Things are a bit tough in the conservative side of the world right now (as my fellow panelists like to point out), so it was important to see him stand up and publicly give Pierre his full-throated endorsement. I loved this line in his speech:

"You know, friends, I am in a unique position in this federal election. I am the only person who can say that both of the men running to be prime minister once worked for me, and in that regard, my choice — without hesitation, without equivocation, without a shadow of a doubt — is Pierre Poilievre."

So yeah, the campaign is still going. And so are we ... how many days left again?

The Line: A bunch, sadly. Kim described the last seven days as the week of Wednesdays. I think I get what she is saying there. But to me it felt like the first week of the campaign that was actually a campaign. My door got knocked. I had signs in my neighbourhood. It felt like Poilievre and Carney were actually politicking, not just greeting crowds of fans. Kim, I’m sorry to say that your guy is only visible to me to the extent I actively search for updates to his whereabouts. We’ve got only a little over two weeks left. What does each of your parties need to do?

Carroll: Didn’t I say that? Also, I resemble that remark, Amanda!

Kim, it’s nothing personal but like most Canadians I’m going to ignore your party and move straight to Matt’s question. 😬

Call me Catholic, but the Liberals need to do three things:

1. Give Carney whatever drugs he needs to stay calm and focused at the two debates this week. Those look like the only real chance for him to seriously blow the outcome all the pollsters are predicting to various degrees. I think that he should also bell the cat right off the mark in the French debate: “Hi, I’m Mark Carney and I’m not going to do my best work tonight. Having said that I promise to improve my French every day I’m in office. But beyond that, I hear what Quebecers are saying … blah blah blah.” Be a little self-deprecating. Blunt the attack. I don’t think he’ll like that.

2. Attack Poilievre. The Libs had excellent "attack ads" (fucking hate that term) before the writs that just straight-up quoted Pierre and juxtaposed his words with Trump’s. Bring. Those. Back. It's not about kicking someone when he's down, it's about keeping momentum and not giving him a chance to rebound. Given there's a reasonable chance Poilievre will be a better political debater than Carney, they should start that now.

3. While this seems antithetical to 2, the Libs should also ensure Carney gives PP enough rope to hang himself at the debate. A cornered animal is dangerous — sometimes to itself. If Pierre wants to get nasty and go full stab-stab-stab, Carney needs to let him go. Women are going to win this election for Carney and images of Pierre in full froth will do nothing help narrow his 20-point gap with soccer moms in the 905.

Unlike Amanda, I've somehow found myself on the margins of the Manning quasi-fascist follies the last few days (i.e., they showed up to drink in my usual spots) and these are not people filled with optimism — generally or particularly, at the moment. Kory was far from the only person there critical of the Poilievre team's approach — just (as is often the case for him) the loudest. I can't help but think that's going to play a role in turnout for the CPC. Internecine warfare is fun to watch when it's someone else's Party.

Conversely, if the polls don't narrow a bit (not too much!) I would expect the Liberals to be very worried that people will think it's a done deal and not show up.

Wright: I suggest that Jamie and Matt get out of their partisan hack algorithms and news agencies that would rather discuss Carney's hidey-hole or Kory's attacks. As always, you see what you want to see.

Every day, Jagmeet is out talking about things that actually impact real Canadians — like expanding pharmacare, enhancing nationwide health, and supporting workers who are being laid off due to the trade war with the Mango Monster. Jagmeet had an incredibly powerful and personal video about how his dad was able to be treated for his alcoholism in the public health care system. Access to services matters.

Our teams are out knocking on doors, hearing real stories, offering pragmatic solutions, and putting up thousands of signs. Ground game matters.

Every day, people come up to Jagmeet with stories of hope and gratitude. They’ve benefitted from dental care, pharmacare, and other NDP programs that the Liberals and Conservatives didn’t give a fuck about. And if left to the LPC/CPC’s druthers, Canadians would still be waiting on them. cough child care cough

What does my party need to do? For local campaigns: just keep hustling. Keep knocking on as many doors as possible. Run your campaign as hard as you can. Ignore the bullshit and talk to as many voters as you can. Make the lists and get them into the ballot box. For Jagmeet: his passion and compassion matter — but so too does shining a light on his fun and feisty side.

Take sharp shots during the debate. This isn’t some prissy U of T debate society. You’ve gotta set the tone right off the start. Be bold, be chippy, be clipable, and take advantage of every angle you can. Debates are won on social media afterwards. Remember what Jack drilled into us: don’t let them tell you it can’t be done!

For the Liberals: lower the expectations for the debate and the campaign. You all are flying too close to the sun. There are a lot of opportunities to fall — whether it’s with your leader’s prickly responses or with less-than-optimally vetted candidates. (You can’t blame it on being a snap election when you literally picked the date.)

For the CPC: my advice is to let Pierre be authentic. I hate when men tell me I need to smile more on TV. But honestly, Pierre needs to smile less. It’s fucking weird. Smile if you’re happy or gleeful — not because a focus group told you it helps with voters. Show his human side more. The interview with him and Ana was a smart move and genuinely compelling. I want to know more about who leaders are as humans.

The focus for all politicos this week is the debates. Like they’re the end-all, be-all of the campaign. That they are the TSN Turning Point of the campaign. They rarely are. Instead, debates are like the playoffs. Yes, they matter. You want to see who gets the yips and who shines through. But! Most people won’t watch the actual game beyond the first few minutes. But they will watch the pre-game analysts, gear up, and then watch the highlights.

Plan accordingly for the highlight reels.

Carroll: For what it’s worth, I agree with everything Kim says except about her own party. Jagmeet is no Jack. To wish otherwise is to wish Trump becomes Eisenhower. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Galbraith: Per Kim’s comments that you see what you want to see — or what your algorithm serves you — I can confirm the Liberal attack ads that juxtapose Pierre’s remarks with Trump’s have indeed come back. I see them, as I likely fit the target Liberal demo (mom, suburban, female, etc.). They are very good. So are the ones on the radio where Carney’s warm baritone tells me he’ll grow the economy or whatever nonsense. The Mike Myers elbows-up ad that makes me cringe is also running during the Masters this weekend. So the Libs are definitely (and smartly) doing what you’re suggesting.

For my side, a few things:

We need to lower expectations going into the debate. Everyone (including me) speaks about how Pierre is a political athlete, that he will fillet Carney in a debate, that Carney is ineffective when pressured. This is unhelpful, and I candidly don’t believe Carney will be bad in a debate. Fun fact: the man is the current president of Chatham House. All that organization does is organize debates on major issues. He’s spoken at every major forum in the world. He is a well-practiced public speaker. We need to set realistic expectations around his performance and avoid the trap of bragging about Pierre’s political excellence. This will be Pierre’s first national debate — no matter how good you are in the House of Commons, those TV lights burn bright.

I also agree with Kim — let Pierre be Pierre. I get that there are risks around the media, especially given the positioning of the campaign right now, but the man is actually really good at taking questions. He’s great on his feet. Let him out there. Take those tough questions head-on. If not that, then have him do one-on-ones. To Kim’s point, they did this very effectively in a long-form interview he did with his wife with Camila Gonzalez on her new show. More of that. Candidly, I’d love to see him do a fireside chat with PM Harper, or Rona Ambrose, or Lisa Raitt. Watch them exchange ideas, Harper reinforce his endorsement — and then cut that up and use it in ads to soften up the boomers.

Finally, I think folks need a break. Running a campaign full-steam for five weeks with no down days will exhaust and fray the nerves of even the world’s greatest politicos. No sleep means mistakes. I can say this with great authority as a mom of young children who do not sleep. Everyone needs a rest and a recharge.

And my last point: ignore those in the cheap seats. I could give a fuck about all the people attending a conference, talking shit while they’re several glasses deep, sitting at a bar drinking a $20 glass of wine, while volunteers and candidates knock doors in the cold, rain, and snow. In the wise words of the great Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell (who was quoting Bobby Bowden): “We play to the echo of the whistle.”

There is still lots of campaign left.

The Line: I’m going to really interject here for the first time in a substantive way (and yes, as Kim noted, “The Line,” in these panels, is indeed Matt Gurney). The discussion of how algorithms shape media consumption — and even just baseline awareness of information — is huge and fair. But to Kim’s point above, I think it’s often true that we see what we want, but there are ways to offset that.

I hit the actual online homepages of all the major news outlets directly every day specifically to see what the editors there are curating for me — not what the algorithms have offered up. I just loaded up the homepages of the Toronto Star, The Globe and Mail, the CBC, CTV News, Global News, and, just to throw in a wildcard, National Newswatch. The top story in most places is Trump waiving tariffs on Chinese-made electronics. The election is actually surprisingly absent. But to the extent there is any coverage, one hundred per cent of it was focused on the Liberals or the Conservatives — with maybe a slight tilt to the CPC. (Update: I checked all the sources again just before publishing, and a single story referencing Jagmeet Singh’s remarks on health care was there, but way down the page — it was either new or I missed it on my first scan. Honestly not sure which. - MG)

The NDP was completely absent from all of them, with four minor exceptions: Singh’s face was displayed in two collages of all the leaders’ faces, he was featured in an Epoch Times ad, and there was a prominent NDP logo in a big chart showing polling history. The NDP would probably have preferred to not have that on display.

So let me pivot this into a question: every party has their own channels their base is dialled into, but for the masses — especially the boomers — how can the parties reach them? And Jamie, for your team, how can you keep ’em?

Galbraith: Paid. They all have to lean heavily into paid. The CPC need to pop the Carney bubble, and the media are doing them no favours in this endeavour. They need to continue to roll out an aggressive negative ad campaign — and it can’t just be “he’s like Justin.” Even though almost every single senior advisor on the campaign team is Team Trudeau — so I get the temptation to make the argument — I just don’t think Canadians, and specifically the infamous boomers, are buying it.

But lots of paid. To Matt’s point — Trump and China tariffs are the lead story this week. It’s difficult to cut through that. The only way is paid.

A short word on the NDP. Honestly, I don’t know how you save that. Kim is making a valiant effort here, but given it’s such a two-way race, my guess is most newsrooms have a hard time justifying giving Singh equal space as the two main parties. Insofar as they have money, I would spend it on ads. And not the dumb revolving door one. It’s cute, but it won’t move a single vote.

Wright: Don’t get me started on the revolving door, ping pong balls, spinning top, Foosball crap ads that we’ve been running into the ground for decades. I fucking hate them more than just about anything my party ever does. The ad agencies that keep making them deserve a fucking slap upside the head. They definitely don’t deserve any more money.

Now is the time for ballot box framing ads and videos. The New Democrats put out a really great one on YouTube the other day:

Crank up the ad buys on transitional and non-traditional channels where our universe of voters spend time. Our digital team does some really fun and persuasive things — crank that up. And be ready to crank it all up further with debate clips.

Finally, buckle up and knock on doors. Meet voters literally where they’re at.

And one final global point of rant for all campaigns: Make better, cleaner lit ads, with waaaaaaaay less text. Everyone says they want to read it ... trust me, they really don’t.

Finally, shout out to Amanda for throwing her daughter an adorable first birthday party. Happy Birthday!

Carroll: Did notice an adorable picture of someone who I assume is Amanda’s daughter in a dinosaur outfit, so I echo Kim’s good wishes!!

Now back to being an asshole. Agreed all around with Amanda’s last: the NDP are fucked, the ads are everything and Libs need to do all of the above but also, I think, Libs should increase targeted social media ads for women, seniors and soccer moms in the 905. I’m not sure there’s much more to say at this point. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Stay tuned for the return of the Anti-Panel in one week.

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