Dispatch from the Front Lines: CASA collapse!
NDP withdraws its support for the Confidence and Supply Agreement.
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Now to it, your Line editors, are struck by how little changed over the course of the summer — and how much may be changing, and quickly, this fall.
On Wednesday, Jagmeet Singh finally took longstanding criticism to heart, and announced he would be tearing up the Confidence and Supply Agreement, the deal that allows the Liberals to hold the confidence of the house.
That said, don’t expect an election just yet.
CASA has been an unmitigated disaster for the little sister of the non-alliance alliance between the two parties. As we’ve previously noted here at The Line, Singh proved to be a weak negotiator, agreeing to support Justin Trudeau with nary a cabinet seat nor a concrete spending promise. To date, the only real concessions the NDP have landed amount to, essentially, half-baked Pharmacare and dental programs that are little more than targeted subsidies to the poor. The merits of these programs in and of themselves is a debate for another day; however, what benefits they do bring have not benefited the NDP one whit.
That’s because the Liberals will — and have — taken full credit for these programs, while Singh has been left in the unenviable position of having to criticize a sitting government that he continues to buttress through the CASA. In other words, for virtually no spending concessions, the NDP has fatally undermined its position as a credible critic of the government.
Meanwhile, the Conservative Party — still strong in the polls — can lean on the NDP’s hypocrisy in order to gather up traditional blue collar and even union workers into the bosom if its culturally cozy embrace.
Obviously, this position is untenable. However, we at The Line admit to being surprised that Singh is actually ripping it up ahead of the deal’s natural expiry in June of 2025. Rather, we expected the Liberals to rag the puck on this government for as long as constitutionally possible — and, to be honest, we thought the NDP would stay in step because the party is, at its heart, weak.
Lo! We were surprised.
By ending CASA, the party has time to restore some of its spent credibility, bashing Trudeau hard to drum up fundraising ahead of the next election. Without the NDP’s support, the Liberals can carry on only until they are required to pass a confidence motion — likely the Spring budget. This gives the NDP a few months to generate support. Of course Singh won’t win that election, but he can now leave his party in a stronger position to live to fight another day.
That is…unless Trudeau decides to respond to the collapse of CASA by simply dropping the writ now, catching his opponents on the left off guard and unprepared to run a full election campaign.
We’re not holding our Dispatch for it, but we can dream a dream.
Now that Singh has shuffled one space forward, it behooves us all to take a look at the current state of play.
Although there’s been the usual up-and-down movement across individual opinion polls, if you look at the aggregated numbers, you’ll see that we begin September basically where we ended June. There wasn’t a lot of political activity federally over the summer, so this isn’t surprising. We also think all the parties were grateful for a bit of time off to recharge and rest before the next election campaign, which could come at any time.
To the extent that we can say anyone “won or lost” the summer, we’ll give a split decision to both the Liberals and the Conservatives. The Conservatives have maintained their lead and have continued to rake in funds through their fundraising efforts. The Liberals, for their part, seemed to be teetering on the brink of some form of open mutiny or revolt in late June, after the Toronto by-election loss. For them to make it to the end of August and start September without having fallen further behind is some kind of victory for them.
Not much of a victory, though. The Liberal caucus seems to have been satisfied, but staffers are reportedly feeling grumpy, meaning that all the Liberals accomplished over the last nine weeks was trading one group of potential mutineers for another. In terms of actually starting to make some kind of recovery, there’s no sign of that, and time is not on the prime minister’s side. We genuinely tip our hats to him and his staff for sliding no further these last nine weeks. But we’re not sure how many more weeks they can go without any sign of revival before the Liberals find themselves in an unrecoverable position — assuming they aren’t there already.
That said, we do feel it’s important to note that some things have changed.
South of the border, the great switcheroo has been successfully executed: Joe Biden is out, and Kamala Harris is in as the Democratic nominee. The polls have improved for the Democrats across the board, but not by so much as to guarantee a Harris victory. The Democrats now find themselves in a fair fight that could go either way. The most we can say is that the race may now be slightly leaning toward the Vice President and away from Donald Trump, who still hasn’t figured out how to respond to the Harris-Walz ticket. Just a few months ago, especially after the failed assassination attempt against the former president, your Line editors had consciously begun to make their intellectual and emotional peace with the certainty of a second Trump term. Today, it’s a whole new ballgame.
We’re always a bit reluctant to weigh in on U.S. political matters. We find it odd when foreigners pretend to know much about Canada, and in general, we think our readers are better served by reading about America from either Americans or at least people living there. We hope our readers will indulge us these comments, which are really just based on a pretty even-handed reading of the polls.
What this all means for Canada, which is really our main interest, is still to be determined. It’s clear that the Liberals want to draw a link between Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump, hoping that the revulsion many Canadians feel for the latter would rub off on the man who seems set to defeat Justin Trudeau sometime in the next 12 or 18 months. The Line has already explained why we are extremely skeptical that this will work. Frankly, we think the more the Liberals try to connect Poilievre and Trump, the more normal — or, at least, benignly wonkish — Poilievre will look. But now that Harris has a fighting chance to win this thing, even that Liberal strategy may go up in smoke.
We know that some Liberals hoped that a Harris would will reignite the kind of yearning for sunny ways-style optimism that Trudeau might be able to capitalize on. To be honest, we’re a little skeptical of this, too. Canada and the United States are, after all, separate countries, with separate populations facing their own issues. A left-wing revival in the United States will probably have some trickle-down effects in our political life eventually, but probably not on a timeline that will save the prime minister. Besides, with a decade of accumulated scandal and baggage, we’re not sure Trudeau could even be a plausible receptacle for any renewed positive vibes in the unlikely chance they do sweep across the land. This seems more like a hypothetical situation that could benefit some future Liberal — or, perhaps, NDP — leader in five or 10 years, rather than something that may save Trudeau in the next five or 10 months.
Closer to home, in B.C., another great switcheroo is being attempted. B.C. United has shut down with mere weeks to go before the next provincial election, with the B.C. Conservatives appearing to benefit in the polls. It’s too soon to say whether this will be enough to defeat the incumbent NDP, but it’s a hell of a wildcard and admittedly something we were not paying much attention to. The Line has been working to bulk up our B.C. political coverage for some time, and rolled out our first effort on that front on Tuesday. Stay tuned for more. But in the meantime, we’re glad to
So there you have it. In our federal politics, not much has changed in the last nine weeks. In the United States, everything has changed, and some of our provinces seem to be racing to keep up. As we get back to work here at The Line, with all the usual mixed feelings we have as both journalists and parents facing the close of another summer, we can console ourselves with this: we shall not lack for things to write and talk about.
By-elections don't matter. Until they do. But they don't. Ever.
We kid, but that about sums up our view of byelections. As a rule, they probably have little meaning on the grand scale of Canadian politics. That doesn't mean their results, and the campaigns, don't tell us interesting things about how voters feel about our political leaders, or give us peeks into how the parties are feeling about themselves. Take Toronto-St. Pauls. The Liberals felt, right up until the end of the campaign, that they would hold on to this riding deep in the beating heart of the Laurentian Consensus. Who could have thought that the home of Casa Loma, Mount Pleasant Cemetery and Upper Canada College would turn against the Liberals?
The Liberals' subsequent loss resulted in much soul-searching, and spilling of ink. But little else.
The two byelections on the horizon for September 16th could tell us much more. It's one thing for the Liberals to lose Toronto-St. Paul's. Let's be clear, it tells them a very bad thing. But just one thing. To lose LaSalle-Emard-Verdun in Montreal, in the same summer as you lose Toronto-St.Paul's, would be a set of ghostly election horrors that didn't even visit themselves upon Michael Ignatieff. There are plenty of signs that is exactly the result the Liberals could be looking at. We're forced to ask, at what point does Justin Trudeau become the political equivalent of Monty Python's black knight?
If the Liberals can lose in tawny midtown Toronto, and they can lose on the West Island of Montreal, exactly where can they win? A loss to the NDP would be the first good news Jagmeet Singh has gotten since signing the Confidence and Supply Agreement. A loss to the Bloc Québecois would give the separatists an argument that they're the only alternative to Pierre Poilievre in Quebec. Neither of those is a recipe for electing more Liberals anywhere.
Of course, if the Liberals eke out a win in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, a riding they have lost only once n the last three decades, the black knight of Canadian politics can go on insisting “‘tis but a scratch!" and we can all watch the spectacle of the federal Liberals hobbling through the fall. The Line would find itself asking anew what it was asking ahead of June’s byelection — is barely holding onto what ought to be one of your safest seats really a win? But. Still. Sure.
In Elmwood-Transcona, something much more interesting is potentially at stake. The Conservatives have invested considerable time and effort in the argument that they're the new party of the blue-collar, unionized, working class. Elmwood-Transcona is so NDP that part of the riding was once literally represented by J.S. Woodsworth, the founder of the CCF, which would become the modern NDP. It would later be represented by a founder of the actual NDP and in the last four decades, it has only left the Blaikie family — much less the NDP — once. It is the blue collar heart of a very blue collar town, founded on stockyards and railyards.
Talk to anyone, blue or orange, in Ottawa right now, and they will tell you that Pierre Poilievre has a very good chance of walking away with it. That matters, because there are ridings like Elmwood-Transcona all over the country in the Halifax suburbs, in the Hamilton suburbs, in the Windsor suburbs, across northern Ontario, and on the north coast of Vancouver Island, where the Conservatives have not traditionally been competitive. If Elmwood-Transcona can be persuaded that Pierre Poilievre is a better avatar for blue-collar anxieties than their traditional NDP home, that gives the Conservative leader a lot more routes to the Prime Minister's Office.
If Singh can hold him off, even just barely, and pull off a win in LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, he can start to rewrite a lot of the premature political obituaries of his career that columnists have been canning for election night. If he can’t …
Byelections don't matter. Until they do.
On the international front, we start with our eyes on the (sadly) usual international flash points.
In Ukraine, as recounted by Andrew Potter in a recent article here, the war continues. Ukraine has achieved some impressive tactical wins in recent months, seizing a large chunk of Russian territory. That was, uh, surprising. Ukraine has said that it intends to hold onto that territory, and has shown, in the battles thus far, that it has the ability to do so, at least in the face of whatever response the Russians have been able to mount. That's good news, as far as we're concerned. But we're also well aware that in other sectors, Russia's numerical superiority has kept Ukraine on the defensive, and even on the retreat. For the long months when Ukraine was cut off from resupply by the United States, Russia was able to gain the initiative in areas that Ukraine still struggles.
The fall is approaching, and that's going to mean two things. As the cold weather returns, we expect to see the war largely stabilize on the ground. Not entirely — determined attacks may still be launched. But operating in the cold of a Ukrainian winter is hard, and we expect both sides to take the chance to rest and refit. This may finally bring something of a reprieve to Ukraine, allowing it to stabilize the front as it replenishes its stockpile of ammunition. But this fall will also mean the U.S. elections, the outcome of which will determine how much more ammunition Ukraine will expect to receive.
Meanwhile, in the Middle East, things continue to go amazingly. No, no wait, check that. It's really bad! We will trust that our readers have kept up with the basic outlines of the war that began 11 months ago (almost to the day) and skip any extended recap. We note as the only update of note the recent execution of six hostages held by Hamas, reportedly shot in the backs of the head as Israeli forces closed in on their positions in the tunnels below Rafah. The news was heartbreaking, but not surprising. Though The Line wishes for the safe return of every hostage and for an end to the loss of life on all sides, we don't expect either.
Indeed, as awful as the suffering remains for Israelis and Gazans alike, we mainly wish to note that Gaza has become, remarkably, a secondary front. Major combat operations wrapped up there some time ago. Israel continues to have forces on the ground in Gaza and continues to rain fire down on what it claims are Hamas targets, often resulting in casualties among the broader population. But overall, activity is limited. Israel dominates the ground in Gaza. Hamas remains hidden in the tunnels, and Israel only ventures cautiously into those. This has been a weird status quo for some time. It could remain so for a lot longer.
Meanwhile, Israel, and the world, has shifted its focus to Israel's northern front. Tension remains high along the border with Hezbollah-dominated Lebanon, and across the region broadly, as Iran continues fuming about the recent assassiation (an Israeli operation, though not officially claimed) of a senior Hamas leader on Iran's soil. In a government building in Tehran, no less! Iran has pledged retaliation. But it hasn't done anything yet.
We are more than sufficiently cynical to believe that Iran is playing the long game, and may strike without warning after Israel and the world has let down its guard. (A fleet of U.S. warships has descended on the region and has Iran ringed with tremendous firepower, with we suspect the Iranians have noticed!) But it's equally possible that Iran has thought back to the last time it directly engaged Israel in battle and how that went for it, has noticed the U.S. warships surrounding it with planes and missiles, and have decided to respond via some symbolic or deniable means and avoid a broader regional war.
We hope so! That would, by Line standards, be the optimistic take. So sure. Let us all join hands and pray for a deniable Iranian response that does not trigger regional war! Our bigger issue is just this: we really aren't sure how long this — all of it, the whole region — can remain balanced on a knife's edge like this. Accidents are going to happen. "Lucky shots" — or unlucky ones — are going to kill civilians in ways that happen to get caught on film, further enflamming the fury among all the populations. A terrorist will get through and set off a bomb. An assassin will gun someone down. Something will happen. Unless we find some way back from the brink.
If The Line knew what that could or should be, we'd have fixed the Middle East and cashed out onto the speaking circuit by now. Alas, we're stuck here, singing for our supper from you fine people. (It's not that bad a fate, we know.) We're just hoping that someone smarter than us can figure this out, because we've felt out hearts catch in our throats more than once in recent months as some flash or another hits the wires, and frankly, we'd rather not do that again anytime soon. It can't be good for our health.
Now, a few shorties to note back home. Further appended to the “independent senate” file, the Liberals filled two seats from Alberta this week; Daryl Fridhandler and Kristopher Wells shall hence be appointed to the red chamber.
Both men are entirely well known hereabouts. Wells is an associate professor at MacEwan University in Edmonton, but is best known for being an extremely vocal activist on behalf of the a vocal activist for the “2SLGBTQ+ community,” as his biography puts it. We expect this appointment will excite all the usual suspects.
More interesting, to us, is the selection of Fridhandler, who is probably less well known to the general reading public — unless they make a habit of attending Liberal fundraisers in Alberta. Fridhandler, a lawyer with "Burnet, Duckworth & Palmer LLP” served as the party’s co-chair in Alberta between 2004 and 2009, served as leadership co-chair for the campaigns of Paul Martin and Michael Ignatieff, and is an entirely well established party stalwart and rainmaker.
In short, while we understand Wells’ appointment on cultural, political, and ideological grounds, there is no way to frame Fridhandler’s elevation as anything other than a nakedly partisan appointment. So duly noted, let’s move on.
Lastly, to the file of Stupid Internet Nonsense, we have two items of note. The first is Elle Canada’s flaming disaster of a puff piece entitled “Incredible Canadians Have Broken The Glass Ceiling” — a headline that only makes any kind of sense if it were a list of Women who have broken said ceiling. Whatever. Anyway, the article turned into a proper rager when Twitter got word that the laudatory article included a mini profile of Sarah Jama, the Hamilton Centre MPP who garnered considerable controversy for anti-Semitic remarks, including denying Hamas terrorists raped their Israeli victims on Oct. 7. This, she claimed, was misinformation from the “Zionist lobby.”
This prompted “threats” according to the magazine’s publisher. Elle then subsequently removed Jama’s profile without seeming to attach any note explaining where it went, or why.
Look, we at The Line have actually defended Jama in the past. We don’t think it was appropriate for the Ontario legislature to censure her, or hamper her right to speak on behalf of her constituents, regardless of her positions. That said, we also have to admit to being wildly amused by the thought of the pitch meeting that must have occurred for her to be placed on a list of admirable figures at a women’s magazine. The entire article strikes us as the sort of thing written by a passionate, progressive intern who has strongly felt feelings about the world — and absolutely no goddamn sense. And as we at The Line were also once such people, we have a lot of sympathy for her — and very little for the editor who should have been informed and grounded enough to know better.
That said, we also cannot imagine allowing ourselves to spend more than 5 minutes getting genuinely emotionally worked up about any of this. We simply can not bring ourselves to generate one iota of emotional wattage for the fact of either Jama’s inclusion, or her dis-inclusion. Good grief, Twitter — it’s a saccharine lefty listicle in a fashion magazine. Who was honestly expecting a New York Times level of editorial transparency from, uh, Elle Magazine? Does this matter? It does not, dear reader. It does not.
Last little bit of internet nonsense comes from The Soo: “Disinformation swirls after viral showdown between Trudeau and Sault steelworker.” All credit and glory belongs to the local reporter and we encourage you to click on the link for a proper chuckle.
Correction: In the earlier version of this Dispatch, your editor Jen Gerson accidentally wrote “Supply Management Agreement” in the subhead because her brain was, as usual, stuck on cheese. Please overlook our our errors, we try our best to be grate, and forgiveness is gouda for the soul.
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Can't wait for Trudeau to move to Whistler with his new twentysomething girlfriend and a sponshorship deal for an upstart line of old guy snowboard gear. He will not sit on any corporate boards or do bus dev for a bank or law firm. Hopefully the Trudeau brand stays toxic in perpetuity so that Canada doesn't have another horror film sequel of a government in 30 years.
Singh will go back to being a lawyer and finally be able to wear the really expensive suits.
A Canadian election concurrent to the US campaign would be great!
It is truly funny that in the minds of some people it is inconceivable that Trudeau would encounter an employee at a Sault Ste. Marie steelmill who is displeased with the PM and his government. But a CPC plant is a valid theory. This whole "affair" really did make me chuckle more than anything.