Dispatch: No retreat, baby. No surrender
Yes, we are aware of the irony of quoting an American in this context. But, like, WHAT an American. Right?
Hey, everyone. Hope your weekend was great. If you missed it, now’s a great chance to check out the latest episode of The Line Podcast.
Also, check out last week’s On The Line, where where Jen Gerson sits down with Jared Wesley and Ken Boessenkool, two members of the Lead Not Leave initiative, for a conversation about the current state of Alberta separatism and the province’s uncertain political future.
And now, on with the dispatch.
We want to offer a quick update on the trade war. Most of what we wanted to say, we said last week in our dispatch. So we’re not going to belabour the point today. If you’re really curious about our thoughts, and if you’re behind on your summertime reading, just click here. But we did think an update was in order.
In recent days, a couple of interesting things have happened. First of all, there have been a series of stories in Canadian media outlets suggesting that Canada would make significant concessions in order to avoid the 50-per-cent tariffs that are set to hit some of our exports to the United States in only three days. American booze would go back on shelves, some auto tariffs would be dropped, Canada might agree to some terms regarding exports of raw materials or the purchase of American military equipment. All of the reports are quite preliminary. And we don’t take anything in any of them as set in stone. But directionally, these Canadian media reports, as well as a report this weekend in the Washington Post, all tell a similar tale: Canada is prepared to make significant concessions, not only to avoid the tariffs that are set to hit us this week, but to keep the overall trade negotiations alive.
A breakdown in the trading relationship now, it is reported, worries Canadian negotiators. They don’t think we would be able to get CUSMA talks back on track if Canada is pushed into retaliating against incoming U.S. tariffs this week. A breakdown now, apparently, would be a crossing of the Rubicon, or something. (Which is weird, since that particular swim seems behind us already, but that’s what the reports say.)
The other thing The Line noticed, and you’ll forgive us for being a bit subtle here, is that a series of social media accounts that The Line believes to be fairly reliable proxies of the internal dialogue among the Liberal party leadership had begun signalling over the last couple of weeks that concessions were probably coming. “Hey, we all know the deal won’t be as good, but we’ve got to be realists.” That sort of thing. After we started to see that, we saw the news stories about what Canada was potentially preparing to offer, and we also saw the backlash to those stories. Hell, we were some of the backlash. And by the end of last week, some of those Liberal proxy accounts were sounding a bit more cautious, with a tone closer to, “Well, Canada certainly won’t sign a bad deal.”
Oh. Really, then. How reassuring.
So, let us offer two more things. One is a declaration, and the other is a theory.
Our declaration: any significant concession to the United States right now is suicidally reckless. Donald Trump cannot be trusted. A concession now simply sets the stage for America’s next demand. Canada will get no peace from any concession. We are prepared to make swaps with them. If we have to give a little bit to get a little bit, well, that’s diplomacy. We’re fine with that. But a concession simply to continue negotiating? To avoid new tariffs? To keep relations with Washington warm? No fucking way. The moment we take that first step backward, the Americans will force us into another one, and another one, and another one, until they ask for something we won’t give up — and then we’ll be left to fight, but with less.
Mark our words: concessions now mean that Canada will get economically weaker. At the same time, Mark Carney will get politically weaker, both at home and with our other allies abroad.
We said most of what we had to say last week, so we will wrap it up here, for absolute clarity: no concessions, no deal under duress. Anything else is a surrender, and the beginning of the end, no matter how long it takes, of Carney’s time as prime minister.
With our view out of the way, let us offer some speculation. And we aren’t being cute. We aren’t winking at the readers and pretending something is speculation when it’s really inside knowledge. We swear to God this is just what we think is happening: we theorize that these leaks are coming from within the Canadian negotiating team. Specifically, we think that the negotiators see the situation basically the same way we do, and are worried that the politicians are turning gutless. We think these leaks have been issued to remind the prime minister and his officials that the public did not elect them to surrender. And based on the changing tone from the Liberal party social media proxies, we think the leaks might be working.
Good. We hope we see more of them. And it’s not hard to find us, hint, hint.
We really hope to one day return to a warm, mutually beneficial relationship with the United States. But the Americans are not looking for that now. One day, maybe when they’re ready to work with us as partners again, we’ll be able to cut a deal. In the meantime, the options remain exactly what we called them in our last podcast: we resist now, or we surrender and sell out and become the 51st state while our price is still relatively high.
Those are the actual only choices the prime minister has. And we really hope he realizes that.
In a late-breaking addition to this dispatch, hot off the presses in Bonkersville, The Line noted with interest (!) tonight U.S. President Donald Trump’s public declaration of solidarity with North Korea.
That’s not a typo. We’re not getting our Koreas confused. Trump is lauding his relationship with the North, and complaining about the South. He announces that he is reducing U.S. military support for South Korea, and notes that he is not happy with South Korea’s support for his war in the Persian Gulf.
Honestly, we thank the president for this. Sincerely. Over the last couple of years, pointing out that the president has an affinity for dictatorships that does not extend to democracies has required a lot of prep work. You couldn’t just mention it casually in a column or editorial without a lot of people rejecting that as “TDS” or some similar nonsense. You had to cite a bunch of examples of times when the president was harder on an ally than an adversary, or allowed his mask to slip enough for his open affection, and frankly envy, of thuggish dictators to shine through.
We don’t actually have to do that this time. All we have to do is copy and paste what he actually wrote and posted on his social media account:
North Korea, it shouldn’t need to be said, is the bad one. It’s the crazy hermit kingdom that has concentration camps for political prisoners in need of re-education, an insane leadership cult, routine execution of dissidents, a nuclear program that has impoverished the country and frequently results in missiles being fired into the ocean over U.S. allies, and, not for nothing, North Korea is providing massive ongoing material support in both personnel and weapons to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And clearly, compared to those loser South Koreans, or something, the president really likes the cut of the North’s jib.
We cannot tell you that we are surprised. We aren’t. We’re well beyond that. All we can reiterate is that we are grateful. This is the most convenient example by far of just how outside the Western alliance this American president is determined to place his country.
But sure, let’s make a bunch of concessions to sign a deal with this guy. Maybe then we can be friends with North Korea, too.
While we’re on the topic of diplomacy and weird statements, we’d like to do a quick wellness check with the staff of Canada’s Embassy to the United States of America in Washington, D.C. We know it’s probably not a lot of fun for them right now, but, um, y’all okay down there, guys? Doin’ good? Need anything? Can we get the British or French to zip over and just eyeball things for us?
We’re asking because of this bizarre little moment: a few days ago, the embassy’s Instagram account began boasting strange content under the “kinda chic” theme. Among the examples offered of how Canada is kinda chic was the fact that former prime minister Justin Trudeau is currently dating American pop singer Katy Perry.
Look, The Line will quietly admit to a pro-Katy Perry editorial position. We’re of the age to have had contemporary opinions on the matter of 1990s U.S. pop divas and Perry was and remains a favourite.
But, like, gosh. Who cares who’s warming her bed for the time being? And are we sure that reminders of the former prime minister are currently helpful? The president was not a fan. Nor were most Canadians by the end, for that matter — we suspect Perry would poll better here than her boyfriend. Even among Britney fans.
So … what the hell are we doing? Relations between the U.S. and Canada haven’t been this bad in generations, we are trying to get through with our sovereignty intact, and this is what the embassy is putting out?
We have a sense of humour and indulge in odd bit of absurdity ourselves. But we aren’t diplomats, and thank God for that. Canada needs to be taking this seriously, and the embassy, in theory, should be a big part of our effort.
Are there any adults left over there or did they all accidentally book their vacations for the same week, leaving an intern running the mission?
Speaking of unserious! We want to note here this tweet by Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner, who noted, extremely correctly, that non-Canadian citizens should not get discounts in court sentencing to avoid triggering deportation. This is, incredibly, a thing that happens — judges will conclude that giving a non-Canadian the same sentence as a Canadian will, by virtue of making them ineligible to remain in the country, result in a more severe sentence than a Canadian would receive. So prevent that injustice, they find creative ways to avoid sentences serious enough to trigger removal from Canada.
This is, we shouldn’t have to say, insane. Rempel Garner is correct to flag it, and we are glad to see that this is a topic that the media is covering in more detail. (Rempel Garner was responding to a story in the National Post, reporting on an Indian national in Canada on a study permit requesting a discharge to avoid deportation after being convicted of defrauding his employer.) Guests in Canada are subject to our rules and laws, and people who break those laws should be removed. That’s the point of our immigration system making the acquisition of citizenship gradual, and a big part of why we distinguish between visitors and citizens in the first place.
That this is an issue that apparently must be flagged by the opposition as outrageous is, to our minds, crazybananas. But also indicative of a major problem in this country: the lack of a survival instinct. It is now widely recognized, even (quietly) by the Liberals, that they badly dropped the ball on immigration in recent years. But they only admitted that after it was an absolute train wreck that had taken one of Canada’s genuine public policy success stories and vapourized it.
The Liberals are currently doing something very similar with our justice system. Whether it’s sentencing discounts for non-Canadians or a perversely dysfunctional bail system, the Liberals are going out of their way to show the public that they don’t get it — and are giving ample room to anyone who’d want to capture public support by proposing solutions, even draconian ones. (The latest example of the latter, by the way, is typically outrageous: a man has been charged with sexually assaulting two children in Windsor, Ontario … while out on bail pending trial for, you guessed it!, sexually assaulting a different child.)
Fundamentally, a question we need to ask ourselves and our government: does this country have a survival instinct that reaches any further than seeking temporary political advantage? Do our leaders understand how badly they destroyed our immigration consensus with their arrogant neglect? Do they grasp how they are, in real time, destroying the credibility of the courts and the justice system writ large?
Some of the blame for this is provincial, not federal, but not all of it, and much of the blame is shared — they know that, too, right?
We worry that the answer to these questions is not a resounding yes. And wonder, with growing alarm, what else is falling apart while our government looks the other way.
No, wait, never mind, we aren’t wondering.
It’s the hospitals, clearly. We can’t wait for the embassy’s cute Katy Perry themed reel about people dying without care in ER chairs.
Thanks, all. Take care.
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