Gregory Jack: Canada's chill summer can't last forever
The patient national mood works in Mark Carney's favour, for now
By: Gregory Jack
The summer of 2026 may be best remembered as the summer Canadians really “checked out.” After half a year of tariffs, global instability, and bad news at every turn, it seems like Canadians followed the advice to “sell in May and go away.” But just like a cottage can provide an escape from the real world, there is still a sense Canadians have that things remain unstable, unpredictable and that the worst may be yet to come.
Canadians remain deeply conflicted about the economy and their own financial circumstances. Our Ipsos polling shows that while consumer confidence inched upward for the fourth month in a row, economic prospects remain flat. The gradual rebound in consumer confidence is not yet sufficient to get us out of our current malaise, while confidence in the economy overall today and in the future remains in negative territory (more people are worried than optimistic).
Polling from our monthly Ipsos Essentials finds that rising prices and inflation remain the top concern of 44 per cent of Canadians, and a top-two concern of close to seven in ten (68 per cent). That number has barely budged since the start of the year.
Housing prices, personal financial concerns, and the environment/climate change round out the top five, and we are seeing a slight increase in environmental concerns as forest fires burn mercilessly across Canada and ignite further geopolitical tension with the U.S. and Donald Trump’s threats to “punish Canada” for the forest fires. He recently said he’s decided on what that “punishment” will be, but hasn’t yet said what it is.
And despite growing consumer confidence, two thirds of Canadians (63 per cent) continue to believe things in Canada are out of control right now. Seven-in-ten (74 per cent) also say that they feel powerless when it comes to solving the world’s biggest problems, up six points since May. But more Canadians now assert that they’re trying to live their lives without worrying about the world around them (52 per cent, up five points since May).
Canadians are most likely to feel frustrated (42 per cent), skeptical (37 per cent) but also calm (37 per cent). The combination of rising consumer confidence, persistent economic pessimism, growing feelings of powerlessness, and a rising desire to enjoy at least a few months without worrying about global events suggests many Canadians are not becoming more confident so much as more detached and resigned.
Many Canadians appear to be tuning out, at least temporarily. Faced with challenges they feel unable to influence, they seem increasingly willing to set aside those concerns and rely on political leaders to navigate them. Or at least stop worrying for the time being.
On that note, Canadians continue to grant Prime Minister Mark Carney conditional confidence that he will address the biggest threats facing Canadians. The prime minister’s long honeymoon has to end sometime (right?), but for now he remains seen as adult in the room who can manage Trump and help Canada survive and thrive in the new world order he argued Canada must adapt to at Davos.
The most pressing threat facing the prime minister and the Liberal government is the impending 50-per-cent tariffs from the U.S. that are scheduled to take effect at 12:01 am on Aug. 19. While reports suggest a deal may be imminent, there is evidence that Canadians are becoming less tolerant of further concessions to the United States. Carney may need to spend some political capital if he agrees to a deal that results in Canada giving up more without enough in return.
Going into the fall, though, Carney will host a global investor conference on Sept. 14 and 15 in Toronto, where Carney will try and access capital from investors representing close to 100 global organizations managing hundreds of trillions of dollars. A win coming out of that conference will go a long way to advancing the prime minister’s priorities.
For the moment, Carney continues to enjoy the benefit of the doubt from a majority of Canadians. In the current environment, that may be more valuable than high approval ratings.
There have been lots of polls lately on voting intentions; ignore them for the moment. Canadians haven’t yet tuned in to things, and the fall will provide a much stronger barometer of where people are on “vote.”
Canadians are still trying very hard to “Buy Canadian,” while noting that their top challenge when they shop is prices being much higher than usual. Whatever the official inflation numbers are, Canadians feel like things are constantly getting more expensive. Likewise, travel intent is down and those who do plan to travel are trying to travel more within Canada. But the U.S. remains the top international travel destination (37 per cent among those who plan to travel internationally in the next three months, 23 points ahead of second place France) and willingness to travel to the U.S. is ticking up.
On the U.S., we appear to have normalized and accepted the new relationship: no longer best friends, but essential partners we cannot simply ignore. As Greg Quinn argued here recently, Canadians seem ready to start treating the United States like just another country. That’s why being seen to make too many concessions to the U.S. for an interim agreement many believe Trump won’t ultimately honour represents a gamble.
Canadians also appreciate that the Endurance Economy is an environment that is politically managed. Government is being asked to solve a lot of wicked problems at the moment: trade, tariffs, productivity, artificial intelligence adoption, building infrastructure, climate …the list goes on. The immediate fall priorities don’t even touch big problems like the growth of artificial intelligence, the aging population and productivity concerns. Our polling suggests what’s happening is that Canadians are becoming more accustomed to instability.
Maybe that’s why the polling data suggest Canadians have tuned out while they can, while maintaining faith in Carney and the government to rise to the occasion, and prepare us for what lies ahead. Canadians are, however, also becoming more realistic and resigned that everything will not necessarily work out well.
It’s an excellent place to be if you are Mark Carney, a combination of high confidence and low expectations. As Canadians return from the cottage and emerge from their summer slumber and well-deserved time away from the news, the pressure will mount. Disengagement is cheap in August, and expensive in October. The return of Parliament, the U.S. mid-terms, an Alberta question on secession and a Quebec election await.
The lesson from the summer of 2026 may be that Canadians decided that constant worry was unsustainable for the time being. Carney and his government are being given the space to manage a series of overlapping, compounding challenges. How long that patience survives into the fall will depend on whether the events of the fall validate the confidence they have placed in the prime minister and his team. The calm before the very big storms is about to end.
Gregory Jack is senior vice president with Ipsos Public Affairs (Canada).
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The main benefit of the doubt is being given by a compliant media. That will continue, as journalists know which side their bread is buttered on, but Canadians will see continued decay in quality of life. The true hope for the Liberals is to make enough new citizens who have no knowledge of pre-2015 Canada. And to stay focused on the boomers, who have no knowledge of 2026 Canada.
So we’ve determined Jen is the only one who gets free time at the cottage and goes to the dark places?