I was hoping for better. The simple fact is Covid is mostly limited to LTC amd barely affects people under 60 means there is no reason it can't continue as normal. Covid for young people is no more dangerous than the common cold flu (with very few exceptions)
They're less likely to require hospitalization. It's too early to tell if there are long term effects, although it seems that about the same proportion of infected teens become "long haulers" as the rest of the population. The other factor to consider is that kids can act as a vector for COVID, and teenagers are nearly as effective at spreading it as adults. They may not be as likely to experience severe effects, but their parents, teachers, and grandparents don't fall into the same category.
Let me pharaphrase my comment a bit. Covid, whether it's a dangerious virus or just a minor flu, the most likey way you're going to catch it is being inside in a room with poor ventiltation. Being outside greatly reduces the risk of catching it. Short version there is no reason halloween can't, mostly, run as normal.
I'm a product safety engineer, so I deal with risk every day. You can't escape risk, but it's important to acknowledge the potential severity of an outcome. Good ventilation, physical distancing, being outdoors, masking are all effective mitigations of the risk of COVID. They're also more effective when they're combined (although let's face it - wearing a face mask outdoors when you're not close to anybody is probably overdoing it.) My hackles raise when I hear COVID compared to the flu - that's the path that leads a lot of people to dismiss the risk and skip the mitigations. Then I have to deal with high blood pressure when I hear the same people cry "How could this have happened?!!" when they're impacted.
My other concern is the overall costs of covid, not the deaths or long haulers but the overall damage done by the lockdowns, but that's a comment for another day
Yeah - I think that's a more complicated issue. Lockdowns are a fairly crude and indiscriminate tool, but they're a relatively easy thing to apply and enforce. More targeted measures like wearing masks and limiting social contact are just as effective, but they need to be supported with public education campaigns. Persuade people to buy into these measures, keep them engaged while it drags on, and fight misinformation with accurate information. Unfortunately, our public health authorities just don't seem up to the job.
I suspect that an unchecked spread of infection would have its own economic costs too. We've seen any number of shortages over the course of the pandemic as factories and supply chains get disrupted by COVID, including a lot of big meat packing plants that shut down after large outbreaks among their people. If infection rates get high enough, people choose to desist from activities out of self-interest without the government ordering them. There's also the risk that you don't get to choose what shuts down, such as when care home staff refused to go to work in the face of huge outbreaks and insufficient protective measures.
The reason people are refusing to wear masks is two-fold. 1. The public health officials originally lied to us to protect the PPE for health care workers when the crisis first hit. They said masks were ineffective and could be a problem. 2. There is a campaign going on amongst people with "issues" on the conspiracy fringe part of social media who have purposefully spread bad information about the efficacy of masks. It is true that masks (as an only measure) are not a safeguard against the virus, what we do know is that by wearing a mask you can likely vastly decrease your viral load, if you do come into contact with the virus. A lower viral load means you are more likely to fight off the infection without the symptoms becoming severe and requiring hospitalization. The more mask use, the less the number of symtomatic infections and the less deaths overall from cases that occur. This is not properly understood amongst the population. Nobody has explained it well.
Studies show that people who are exposed to information rely upon THAT first bit of information and become biased about believing it, even if they are subsequently informed that the information was faulty or incomplete.
So that's what we are dealing with. So please everybody... keep your distance, wear your masks, wash your hands, stop touching your face, hang out with friends OUTSIDE, and take your Vitamin D and Zinc.
You bring up a good point, the internet and social media have meant it's far easier to research issues, but it also means a ton of conflicting opinions and downright mis-leading information. It's very hard to separate the good from the bad. Human nature is that your peer group will enforce it's own beliefs on you.
I always thought that Taiwan was a good example, wide spread mask wearing along with some social distancing mean they keep the load almost to zero. Unfortunately politics meant the world never heard of this.
I was hoping for better. The simple fact is Covid is mostly limited to LTC amd barely affects people under 60 means there is no reason it can't continue as normal. Covid for young people is no more dangerous than the common cold flu (with very few exceptions)
They're less likely to require hospitalization. It's too early to tell if there are long term effects, although it seems that about the same proportion of infected teens become "long haulers" as the rest of the population. The other factor to consider is that kids can act as a vector for COVID, and teenagers are nearly as effective at spreading it as adults. They may not be as likely to experience severe effects, but their parents, teachers, and grandparents don't fall into the same category.
Let me pharaphrase my comment a bit. Covid, whether it's a dangerious virus or just a minor flu, the most likey way you're going to catch it is being inside in a room with poor ventiltation. Being outside greatly reduces the risk of catching it. Short version there is no reason halloween can't, mostly, run as normal.
I'm a product safety engineer, so I deal with risk every day. You can't escape risk, but it's important to acknowledge the potential severity of an outcome. Good ventilation, physical distancing, being outdoors, masking are all effective mitigations of the risk of COVID. They're also more effective when they're combined (although let's face it - wearing a face mask outdoors when you're not close to anybody is probably overdoing it.) My hackles raise when I hear COVID compared to the flu - that's the path that leads a lot of people to dismiss the risk and skip the mitigations. Then I have to deal with high blood pressure when I hear the same people cry "How could this have happened?!!" when they're impacted.
My other concern is the overall costs of covid, not the deaths or long haulers but the overall damage done by the lockdowns, but that's a comment for another day
Yeah - I think that's a more complicated issue. Lockdowns are a fairly crude and indiscriminate tool, but they're a relatively easy thing to apply and enforce. More targeted measures like wearing masks and limiting social contact are just as effective, but they need to be supported with public education campaigns. Persuade people to buy into these measures, keep them engaged while it drags on, and fight misinformation with accurate information. Unfortunately, our public health authorities just don't seem up to the job.
I suspect that an unchecked spread of infection would have its own economic costs too. We've seen any number of shortages over the course of the pandemic as factories and supply chains get disrupted by COVID, including a lot of big meat packing plants that shut down after large outbreaks among their people. If infection rates get high enough, people choose to desist from activities out of self-interest without the government ordering them. There's also the risk that you don't get to choose what shuts down, such as when care home staff refused to go to work in the face of huge outbreaks and insufficient protective measures.
The reason people are refusing to wear masks is two-fold. 1. The public health officials originally lied to us to protect the PPE for health care workers when the crisis first hit. They said masks were ineffective and could be a problem. 2. There is a campaign going on amongst people with "issues" on the conspiracy fringe part of social media who have purposefully spread bad information about the efficacy of masks. It is true that masks (as an only measure) are not a safeguard against the virus, what we do know is that by wearing a mask you can likely vastly decrease your viral load, if you do come into contact with the virus. A lower viral load means you are more likely to fight off the infection without the symptoms becoming severe and requiring hospitalization. The more mask use, the less the number of symtomatic infections and the less deaths overall from cases that occur. This is not properly understood amongst the population. Nobody has explained it well.
Studies show that people who are exposed to information rely upon THAT first bit of information and become biased about believing it, even if they are subsequently informed that the information was faulty or incomplete.
So that's what we are dealing with. So please everybody... keep your distance, wear your masks, wash your hands, stop touching your face, hang out with friends OUTSIDE, and take your Vitamin D and Zinc.
You bring up a good point, the internet and social media have meant it's far easier to research issues, but it also means a ton of conflicting opinions and downright mis-leading information. It's very hard to separate the good from the bad. Human nature is that your peer group will enforce it's own beliefs on you.
I always thought that Taiwan was a good example, wide spread mask wearing along with some social distancing mean they keep the load almost to zero. Unfortunately politics meant the world never heard of this.