Jen Gerson: Nothing's going to happen, and it's far too late to do anything about it anyway

There's now a clear timeline on Canada getting its act together. Place your bets accordingly.

It was that genius dark British political comedy Yes, Minister that once laid out the “Four Stage Strategy.” This was the approach of the civil service to a pending crisis — especially one fomenting abroad.

Stage one: say nothing is going to happen. Stage two, say something is maybe going to happen, but we should do nothing about it. Stage three: Maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do. And then, the finale. Stage four: Maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.

After the last ten years in Canada, Yes, Minister strikes me as entirely too optimistic. The West Wing of its era, really.

I’ve been thinking about the Four Stage Strategy a lot in the last few days as we’ve watched the United States abduct Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to be tried in a New York court. Now, it’s one thing for a hegemonic power to meddle in countries in order to secure a strategic asset like oil — in fact, there’s nothing really new in that, and especially not where Latin America is concerned.
I guess what’s shocking is the lack of even an attempt at a moral or democratic pretext for such an aggressive move. In his rambling press conference, President Donald Trump stated pretty much outright that this is about the oil. I mean, nobody is crying for Maduro, but nobody at this point can operate under the naive delusion that the Americans would have stepped in to depose a dictator who stole the election of, like, Kiribati. Maduro’s crimes only matter to the Americans because Venezuela is sitting on the largest oil reserve on the planet.

What, did you think intent matters?

And something about this — this, of all bloody things — seems to be finally cluing at least some people into those hard realities of the new geopolitical situation we’re all in. That National Security Strategy in which Trump’s administration spelled out a ruthlessly transactional new world order was a serious document. We aren’t in Kansas anymore.

In fact, we left the gentle flyover states of a globe governed by liberal norms some time ago, but if this is what it took, welcome to the horrorshow, I guess? The turbulence is expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Please strap in securely. Your sick bag is located in the seat pocket in front of you. The plane never lands. This is your life now. We’re all stuck in the same tiny, claustrophobic aluminum tube flying at high altitude with no back up plan and there’s no way out save death.

Anyway, Maduro’s extraordinary rendition seems to have hit a real nerve here in Canada among those who have correctly realized that an America that doesn’t need our oil is an America that has the luxury of setting its own trade terms. To be honest, some of this analysis has bordered on the unrealistic, and even hysterical. (Now’s a very good buying opportunity for Canadian crude stocks, fwiw.)

Just because a country sits on a lot of oil doesn’t mean said country can actually get that oil to market quickly, efficiently, or expeditiously. Analysis is now starting to pour forth from experts on this file, and, well, let’s just say that tales of Venezuela’s actual capacity to pump and ship oil may have been somewhat overestimated by a U.S. administration that, once again, executed a flawless military campaign before bothering to cobble together a credible after-action plan. At present, Venezuela’s crude production is about 1/4 of its peak, undermined by literal decades of dysfunction, nationalization, mismanagement, and sanctions.

Take this back-of-the-napkin analysis by Michael Stryker, for example. He estimates it would take about $1 trillion dollars and up to a decade to get Venezuela producing oil at the same rate as us.

And, to be straight, that seems about right to me. That’s not to say I expect the Trump administration to be well read on these obstacles. And I further don’t believe they have a detailed plan for overcoming them. This is military strategy by vibes. Venezuela’s a problem, man. About 8 million people have fled the country since 2015 due to economic hardship. Lots of oil there. “Let’s just abduct Maduro and let the oil companies figure it out,” is about the level of forward planning on display, here.

The Canadians who are scoffing behind their cuffs at this scene are not wrong.

But here’s the thing: America is so big and rich and powerful that it doesn’t have to be totally competent. It has the money, time, and clout to roll the geopolitical dice on long odds and take the bet it’ll eventually come up sixes. One trillion dollars over the course of ten years is not going to bankrupt the United States of America. Hell, that kind of investment isn’t even going to bankrupt ExxonMobil.

Canada, on the other hand, doesn’t have that kind of pin money. We don’t have the same margin for error.

So, I’d ask you, what’s the more likely thing to happen in the next ten years: Will America strong arm its oil companies into investing $1 trillion dollars into rebuilding the oil infrastructure of a Latin American basket case in order to secure better access to a major strategic resource that it doesn’t really need?

Or … will Canada build one single new pipeline to tidewater?

Like, if you had to put $1,000 on Polymarket on one of those two outcomes today, where would you put it?

Honestly, I don’t think the smart money would bet on Canada. Honestly, I think that that bet is laughably one-sided.

Look, even odds kidnapping Maduro was a mistake: Maybe Venezuela is a total disaster for the Americans and for the Venezuelans. Maybe it all comes to nothing. But the problem is, maybe it isn’t a mistake — and if it isn’t, we’ve got 10 years to build and invest in a way that makes us less dependent on our capricious neighbours. The timer started yesterday. Tick, tick.

And … I just don’t think we’ve got what it takes to be stronger than this. Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.

Because it’s just easier to scoff and do nothing. Build nothing. Say all the right things and then shrug it all off. The future is a long way away and actually doing stuff is hard. Structural problems are hard. It’s better to just coast into decline, really. Half assing is more efficient. That way we never have to piss anyone off or make decisions or set priorities. All we need to do is just say the right and virtuous things and laugh at the clowns running the White House because they’re dumber and meaner and uglier and fatter. We’re the good people and it will probably all work out for us.

Or, as the great Sir Humphrey put it, it’s easier to implement the Four Stage Plan: nothing is going to happen. Or maybe something is going to happen, but it’s better we do nothing about it. And even if we should do something about it, there’s nothing we can do. By 2036, we’ll concede that there was something we could have done, but it’s far too late now.

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