Because it’s just easier to scoff and do nothing. Build nothing. Say all the right things and then shrug it all off. The future is a long way away and actually doing stuff is hard. Structural problems are hard. It’s better to just coast into decline, really. Half assing is more efficient. That way we never have to piss anyone off or make decisions or set priorities. All we need to do is just say the right and virtuous things and laugh at the clowns running the White House because they’re dumber and meaner and uglier and fatter. We’re the good people and it will probably all work out for us.
I mean, has a better summary of this country ever been written?
Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.
That's what Canada voted for last April. If covid actually had been dangerous and carried off the Boomers, we'd be leading the world by now. As it is, genteel decline is probably too good to hope for.
To be honest, I've seen the proposals by the elbows up crowd... And now I'm thankful these guys aren't in charge, and the fact our country does nothing. Thank god for doing nothing.
You assume that, because V's oil will be long in coming, Trump miscalculated. However, it seems unlikely that he/Rubio did NOT know this obvious fact. Rather, whatever Trump says publicly, this attack on V is probably not entirely about oil, but about removing V from Russian and Chinese influence, which have been substantial and were growing. The NSS made clear that the Americas were US's territory; this attack shows the seriousness of that assertion. Sure, oil matters, and US policy makers surely want to be certain that V's oil goes to the US over the long term, but getting Russia and China out of Latin America, and asserting US control over the region, was more likely their immediate aim. Your comments about the need for Canada to build pipelines are on the money though :)
Rubio is literally already walking back Trump's statements. Occam's razor is that these guys really are what they appear to be. They're winging it on vibes. JG
My theory is that Trump really, really hated Maduro's videos mocking Trump's dancing - it was personal and similar to his feelings about Trudeau who liked to make jokes at Trump's expense, and Obama who shredded him at the Press Club dinner. The dude is nothing but vindictive (and maybe somewhat dementia addled).
Sure, the US won't govern V. Why would they? They only need to oversee the government there, and make clear what will happen if that govt doesn't toe the US line. Of course someone is clarifying Trump's comment on running V. To "run" V, they don't have to "govern" V. They only have to make clear what they want done.
Perhaps we should allow for a very clear possibility that a couple of layers in the background there is a US team who does play a 4D chess, even if this team may have limited influence on the front US team. It is doubtful that Trumpsters would manage to flush competence out of all the administration layers.
This is the problem of "the rider and the elephant", as described by Jonathan Haidt in his book "The Righteous Mind". Haidt talked about how a rider had limited control to get an elephant to move in a particular direction, but if the elephant was determined to choose a particular path, there was very little the rider could do other than go along for the ride.
Haidt's analogy was meant to describe the relationship between human reason and intuition, but it works well for the Trump administration because Trump is *all* gut instinct. Administration officials in both his first and second terms have seen carefully reasoned plans trampled as Trump blunders the way he wants to go. If administration officials want to succeed, they either need to align their plans with Trump's instincts or fly under the radar. Ever notice that in Trump's first term, his administration's greatest successes were the ones where Trump was the *least* involved? For example, the big tax bill and the COVID vaccine development. In contrast, the areas where Trump was most engaged like his border wall were abject failures.
I believe Trump is callous enough to be fully informed and still sleep easy at night... Albeit his tweeting record would show otherwise. Can the Americans really defeat international dictatorships of which are armed with nukes without playing 4D chess? Is Xi correct in that journalists need to be kept in the dark?
Rather than this constant use of this 4D chess analogy, how about maybe, just perhaps, it's possible that US security in the western hemisphere might just be playing a role in US actions? Or is that Big Stick approach only equivalent to your idea of 4D chess?
Well... Suggesting that Trump is uninformed about how long V's oil production will take to ramp up I think is a weak link in an otherwise-good argument. Trump may be poorly informed, sure, and no doubt he's a loony, but he has lots of capable, informed people around him. Of course oil matters, no one would say it doesn't. (Oil is one reason to attack V and not Cuba, for example--Cuba offers little to the US). But... to the current US govt, so does getting Russia and China out of US sphere of influence. I don't think the latter factor can be overlooked--the US is reclaiming its hinterland from these countries after years of letting them get entrenched. I don't know that that's 4D chess... it's not diabolically clever or anything, its already in the NSS....
“This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live -- and we're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States."
And from page 17 (.pdf) of the “National Security Strategy - November 2025
“The Western Hemisphere is home to many strategic resources that America should partner with regional allies to develop, to make neighboring countries as well as
our own more prosperous. The National Security Council will immediately begin a
robust interagency process to task agencies, supported by our Intelligence Community’s analytical arm, to identify strategic points and resources in the Western Hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners.
Non-Hemispheric competitors have made major inroads into our Hemisphere, both to disadvantage us economically in the present, and in ways that may harm us strategically in the future. Allowing these incursions without serious pushback is another great American strategic mistake of recent decades.
The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of
our security and prosperity—a condition that allows us to assert ourselves confidently where and when we need to in the region. The terms of our alliances,
and the terms upon which we provide any kind of aid, must be contingent on winding down adversarial outside influence—from control of military installations,
ports, and key infrastructure to the purchase of strategic assets broadly defined.”
Bang on! Lots of talk about oil but that is just a red herring, although the US would keep the oil. The real reason is clearly found in the” National Security Strategy of the United States of America “ Rubio more so than Trump is focused on South America and the “spheres of influence “ philosophy, especially with his Vuban background and his longstanding hate for Maduro.
Back in the first Trump term, it was commonly said that you needed to take Trump seriously but not literally. What we've learned since then is that the only reason Trump couldn't be taken literally was that there were serious people straining mightily to keep his worst instincts in check. In Trump's second term, you should be taking Trump both seriously AND literally. What you see with Trump is what you get: a narcissistic man who acts on impulse and instinct, and has a worldview consistent with a mafia don.
Of apparently zero concern for those assured the Beijing-inspired narrative is the right/main one concerning the US removal of Maduro (the 'The US is in it for the oil' crowd):
Just how nervous, I wonder, is the leadership in Nicaragua today, one that is also governed much as a Havana proxy, and through that the administering of goals by China and Russia and Iran? I'm sure not in the least (me being a savvy critic of the US by using the ever-so-true narratives of the Evil Empire from Beijing & CO) because of their lack of similar oil reserves that the western media pundits 'know' is the right reason to reveal the REAL objective behind the US interdiction in and around Venezuela.
It's entirely about oil. Whether American business is willing to risk the investment is the bigger question? What American foreign policy will be remains to be seen. Their shoot first, and then plan strategy has never worked. Would you invest a trillion dollars in a country where you have no idea who will be in charge in 2 years? Are Americans ready to watch their kids die in another pointless American war? Trump plans to rape Venezuela of everything. We'll see how the populace responds to that, and we already know America sucks at dealing with guerrilla warfare. There are no answers....just questions, and America is imploding at the same time.
For me, regime change is nothing new for America. It's just much more direct now. Manuel Noriega got the same treatment and the world didn't fall apart. America, I am quite certain now, is well on its way to a Reichstag Fire moment. Just a matter of time. We are not safe.
The thing that I find the most disturbing about Canada's situation is that there is absolutely no discussion at high levels about how we are going to pay for things. OAS is not free. Medicare is not free. Public education is not free. Government-funded infrastructure is not free.
We have a 78 billion dollar deficit. Our federal national debt is approaching 1.5 trillion. If you add in provincial debt, we are at 2 trillion. People keep acting like everything is ok because a credit rating agency says we are good.
If not oil, how are we going to pay for the lifestyle that we currently cannot afford?
But we can just bring in another 60 million people and figure that they each bring like $10K with them to create new economic activity before they start receiving our cherished and unassailable social benefits. That ought to solve the problem.
An opinion that can only be borne of unvarnished racism. Don't you know that no Canadian, except maybe the Indigenous depending on the context of the argument and whether we remember they exist at that moment, has any more right to be here than any other random person at any point on earth? Therefore Canadian residency and citizenship should be open to literally anyone who asks. I mean that's been our de facto immigration policy for 10 years now anyway.
I suspect whichever party wins the next majority government will have to do a cleanup of government finances like Paul Martin did from 1994 to 1997. He cut the civil service & transfer payments to the provinces & was able to use money from the new GST to raise revenues. Canada should also begin reducing payments of OAS to families with incomes above 90K. The current clawback is based on individual income, not Family Income.
Benefits to the oldies are untouchable, as Harper found out. Unless we are willing to raise the GST by 10 points and cut the rest of the federal payments to provinces we won't be able to replicate Chretien and Martin's trick.
People present this as some kind of harmless financial miracle but it required huge sacrifices, just ones the '90s Liberals were very successful at deflecting blame for. "The GST is Mulroney's fault and the schools and hospitals are suddenly falling apart due to provincial austerity, not bone-deep federal cuts."
Which begs he question of why we're selling to the US at a discount instead of refining here, and selling finished products. We're still going to have to give things up, but you can't get elected telling voters that.
I have yet to hear the idea floated here, so I reject that notion. I've heard "refineries cost too much". That doesn't hold any water in this environment....pun intended. Considering the fire that McMurray suffered, some of what the "tree huggers" say shouldn't be ignored. Climate change will impose itself on our world again, soon enough.
Have asked that question many times, and my engineering friends in O&G have always said it doesn't make economic sense for Alberta. Perhaps we need to ask again, or maybe BC should refine it before it gets sent abroad.
What I don't understand about that argument is that they think it makes economic sense to sell it at a discount, and then buy it back, sending the profits to the US? That sounds like a very US-slanted view. But I also believe 100% of the Canadian market should be supplied with Canadian-made/extracted fuels.
Our eastern refineries are tuned for the lighter, 'sweeter' crude oil rather than the heavier, 'sour' crude that Alberta has so much of. Our best bet would be to refine it here in the West, but while it's been talked about for literally half a century, we've made minimal progress. Exporting raw crude to the USA was the easier, cheaper (and very Canadian) way of doing things.
Canada can do exactly zero to affect global climate change. Any imposition will be entirely externally generated. Can we deal with our domestic consumption side? Sure! But to attack the supply side in complete folly and vanity, and will lead to a national suicide.
Which ignores the question of why we are selling at a discount instead of selling finished products.
Zero? We'll agree to disagree. Yes, we're a small player, and our climate dictates we will emit above our weight class, but we need to look at what we're doing.
Provincial suicide is Danielle pretending that the future isn't green. Even China has figured that out. The only thing that might be saving Alberta's oil industry in light of Trump's insanity is the amount of money US companies have invested in the tar sands.
I'm all for selling oil and LNG to other countries to get them off coal. How long those markets will demand the volumes they do is a different question. Oil is not the future. Let's see how this year's fire season goes. That could flip everything.
“Which ignores the question of why we are selling at a discount instead of selling finished products.”
Basic economics is the answer. Refineries are incredibly expensive. 10’s of billions each. The US already has these refineries already built, and they are built where it makes sense. Transport is critical. Out of a refinery goes, Gas, diesel, Kerosene, jet fuel, coke, propane… among other things. Each of these products ships separately to end use locations. The market is in the US, it makes far more sense to distribute out of a central location to most of the US than from Canada.
Canada emits 1.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a rounding error in the grand scheme. We have zero ability to affect global climate change, except to export NG at as great a scale as possible.
Danielle Smith has agreed to a $130 tonne industrial Carbon tax price. More than all the other major emitters (save europe) in the world have done. What’s China and India’s price on Carbon?
People say “oil isn’t the future” and then wax poetically about “renewables.” Let’s talk energy density, let’s talk base load. Let’s talk embodied energy of these “renewables.” Do you know how much steel are in those windmills for a 20 year life span? And then on top of this AI is set to exponentially increase energy demand. Make no mistake. Oil/NG is the future - it just will also need to be nuclear as well.
What’s tiresome in Canada is how myopic and self important we are. I was in Mexico over Christmas, every night smoke from burning garbage wafted through the air. It’s time to wake up and smell it.
If the Americans are successful, Canada will lose its heavy oil market on the Gulf Coast and China will need another source. If the Americans aren't successful, Canada will maintain its market on the Gulf Coast and China will need another source as Venezuela will have descended further into chaos. Canada's response to the first scenario is to build another pipeline to the Pacific. Canada's response to the second is to build another pipeline to the Pacific. If the US and China are both pursuing petroleum resources, climate activists are wrong: oil demand isn't going away.
From what I have read, the Venezuelan oil infrastructure was originally American oil company built, expropriated when Chavez came to power. So there's that.
Not exactly. Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, in a negotiation where the (mostly) American companies were duly compensated and where they remained as customers and partners in new developments.
The Americans not only left the infrastructure in place, but also a well trained workforce that, by 1999, had put the Venezuelan oil company (PDVSA) as the third biggest in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco and Exxon Mobil.
Unfortunately, that was the year when the mafia (Hugo Chavez) came to power. By 2002, he fired pretty much everyone (20000 employees at once) and the oil industry started to fall apart since then. BTW, many of those fired employees now live in Alberta and continue to contribute to the development of the oil sands.
I have little respect for a commentariat that marginalized CANZUK advocates like myself for the last 20 yrs who warned about this danger who now whine and moan about a situation that is at an inflection point.
Not directed you or Matt...I think you've been more prescient than a lot of others.
The problem with CANZUK is that there just wasn't enough interest in it. Unless I'm very much mistaken, it didn't have anything close to critical mass support in Canada and support in the UK and New Zealand was quite a bit lower.
It seems a little like the the late 18th to mid-19th century idea of restructuring the British Empire / commonwealth as a confederation. It came up several times over the decades, but it never took off and never had anything close to the support such a change would need.
You can probably make a good case in retrospect that all the countries proposed would be far better off today if this had gone ahead... but it just wasn't going to happen because everyone involved at the time had different priorities for their neck of the woods.
People assume we're talking a federation, but the majority of us in the movement just want enhanced cooperation on trade, defence, diplomatic efforts and - eventually when we can fix our immigration mess - free movement.
No Empire 2.0 and no severing US trade...just a mutually beneficial liberal democratic pole in a multipolar world where liberal democratic norms and national sovereignty are in question.
Again, I could be wrong, but I think a lot of that was soft “I like the idea… as long as it’s what I think it of and not what the other supporter thinks it is”. I’m sure if they’d baked me they’d have put me answer in the support camp. I’m not opposed to free trade with the UK or New Zealand. But also not going to be a yes to any and every version of that. But in principle, I’m a yes.
If I’m wrong, the obvious question is if it had majority support in every party why did the party in government do jack squat about it?
Governments tend to reject things they oppose not things they support.
I have my theories (based in part on my own dealings with Ottawa types on this) but I think a lot of it came down to people either not treating it (or the proponents) seriously or just a lot of conventional thought that says the US relationship will go back to normal in a couple of years, or the Pearsonian view of "multilateralism for multilateralism's sake." There is a lot of inertia and no hunger among some for risk or leading an initiative of this scope
That seems about right. And that’s effectively the same thing as not enough interest.
In theory I like free trade with New Zealand, but I’ve never emailed my MP about it… I’m not *that* strongly in favour…. I’m equally in favour of free trade with Japan, France, Switzerland or Australia. South Korea is also somewhere we might look.
If we want things like free trade, we’ve got to rest stop responding to American “buy American” protectionism with the same thing.
The answer to a buy American order in the US is not a buy Canadian order up here because that harms everyone not just the Americans. If the Americans insist on a buy American policy, then we should have a “buy anyone except American” policy so as not to harm the countries that actually want to have free trade with us.
The suggestion that removing Maduro was all about (or even mainly about oil) is rather naive. First, Canadians need to wake up to the reality that Americans care about the drug crisis that is destroying their society (as it is in parts of Canada). Reforming Venezuela will not only help stop cocaine flowing from there, it will also help them impact and reduce the flow of fentanyl (and its pre-cursors) from China and Mexico. Canada needs to get serious about stopping the production of fentanyl within Canada, and its export to the US, if it wants to be taken seriously by Trump. Second, as other comments point out, this is stage one of the new Trump/Monroe doctrine. The US is now serious about getting China, Russia and communism out of the Americas. Again, Canada needs to wake up to the reality of CCP influence in Canada if it wants to be taken seriously by Trump.
If they cared about drugs, why did Trump pardon a drug-lord? This was never about drugs. The only thing Trump takes seriously is whatever idea pops in his head. The US has zero credibility on any issue today.
Sorry, but it's mainly about acquiring a massive reserve of oil and hemispheric control.
It's not (much) about drugs and stamping out communism as it is hemispheric control.
If the Trump admin cares about cocaine so much, why did he pardon Hernandez?
What evidence do you have that the Trump admin plans to 'reform' Venezuela, as the regime is still in charge there, and the current VP they left in chage is an avowed ideological socialist?
They've not thought beyond the optics of the missles raining down on Caracas and getting meme-able video of Maduro doing the perp walk in his PJ's. They have no clue what to do in Venezuala, other than making deals to line the pockets of those close to the POTUS, which has been in evidence ever since he took office.
Read the US Foreign Policy document released last month. It outline their desired spheres of influence, with the USA controlling the Western Hemisphere.
The so-called 'Donroe' Doctrine is 19th century thinking with 21st century weapons and technology - what could possibly go wrong?
The only things I agree with you on is that Canada can and should deal with its fentanyl and other drug policy issues, and need to forcibly combat and root out the reality of CCP and other foreign influence in Canada. Neither of these things should be to impress Trump, who does not really give a damn about either issue, despite his occasional ravings to impress the cameras and domestic political supporters.
This piece is why I love the writing of Jen Gersen…
“And … I just don’t think we’ve got what it takes to be stronger than this. Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.”
“… huff its own farts” made me laugh out loud in a black humour sort of way..... thankfully I had finished my coffee... It’s so true though… sigh. Thanks Jen.
I really hope you're wrong. That this time is so serious and so different that we’re gonna actually DO something.
Like it or not, it is a bet we are all taking, we who live in the Great White North… that we will find the will to DO something to address our economic and military dependence on the country to our south. Last week, my daughter-in-law bought eggs from MANITOBA and LOVES them! She lives in ONTARIO! Things are changin’ baby! Maybe we’ll get some of that good French butter soon too.
Yeah, really, that’s what change looks like. Small, incremental… more internal trade, more external markets and a larger international aisle in the supermarket. That’s a start. Maybe some BC wine on Ontario shelves (G-d forbid)… baby steps that lead to more diversity, tip toeing out of the US sphere without causing too much of a stir. A Grippen or two… maybe a submarine… who knows!? Dream big! A sovereign cloud? A Canadian GPS?
Because if we don’t, I fear we’ll not be the 51st state, but our reality will be more like Puerto Rico’s. I’m sure it’s a lovely place, but they aren’t a State, and that makes all the difference. They are still cleaning up from the Sept. 2017 hurricane for goodness sake, with next to no help from Uncle Sam.
And that, my friends, is not what I want for myself or my kids. We gotta DO something real or we’re truly up shit’s creek.
I think this could be applied to a great many things in Canada. Politicians have stopped being leaders and have decided popularity matters more. What they’ve missed in the avoidance of dealing with tough situations is that if you deal with a tough situation well, you get a whole lot of political capital back. But when you avoid it, it’s the beginning of your own demise.
Canadian politicians seem a bit suicidal in that regard. Too bad we can’t seem to do a better job of finding a middle ground. We don’t have to go to the American extremes - we just need to do more than nothing. And plan it out so that it has meaning.
I don’t think it’s all one way. What politicians tells voters influences them. Maybe media influences some - I don’t know how many are exposed to radio and tv media these days, I know it’s rare around my house, but I’m sure that has an influence too. But I think real leaders could navigate this. Polievre has the popularity. If he wanted to use it that way. But he doesn’t.
Same with Carney. Nobody wants to actually have the needed conversations with the electorate and so people have forgotten that’s even a thing.
Yes. And first we have to figure out how to neutralize the destructive screaming and destructive actions - subsidized by taxpayers'd money - of the leftist nutbars.
If our government stopped subsidizing the dependant groups that lobby them for ever more ridiculous and impractical concessions, market forces would solve a lot of our problems. Suddenly those pipelines would make a whole lot more sense to everyone nearby. But asking a Liberal to stop buying votes is like asking a fish to stop swimming.
The LPC is about to pay the piper. The referendum in PQ on sovereignty will not be won by federalists without buying votes. That will further alienate those who have to pay on their behalf. Things will come to a head soon enough.
One thing that most people miss: I think the move was as much to secure oil for itself as denying oil to its enemies (Cuba, DPRK, China, etc).
They may do nothing about it for decades and just sit on the stockpile just to piss the "axis of evil™" off.
Add to that the potential fall of Islamic Republic of Iran and replacing the mullahs with a friendly regime. All of a sudden, China is cooked and Hormuz is open for business.
We're still very far from peak oil and that will shape geopolitics for decades.
Think what you will of "might makes right" (not condoning it), but I think there is a logic to this that most miss and even more worryingly, refuse to imagine that Trump could be anything more than a dummy.
Because the US is okay for energy for at least 10 years, there is no rush to get the Venezuela oil to market. Stockpiling is reasonable.
It is unlikely that Canada will get anything built in the next 10 years, so all that has to happen is get Keystone running until they don't need Canada anymore. Alberta will continue to sell it's oil to the states because that is the only available option.
The US administration is completely aware of how dysfunctional Canada is.
At current rate it's 15 years, but that's not counting new fields discovery or technological advances that unlock previously unexploitable sources.
One more reason why we're fucked. Our betters should be running some version of Asshole Canada™. Instead we have Mark "Carnage" Carney and his "uuhss, aaahs, ummms", peppered with platitudes in between.
Maybe if the non lunatic right can get their act together for 2028 in BC, there might be a chance. Like the Line from the weekend said, DEI, Indigenous virtue signaling etc are not at all in the top 10 of voter concerns.
Greece kind of went down that 4 point path route a couple of decades ago and we know how that went. I could even live with that if we had Greece's topography and climate, but that ain't happening. If we do not get serious about getting our greatest natural resource to the world market ( outside of the US), we will become the poster child for the 4 point plan.
Canada has nothing in the tank. We've done nothing for so long, we've forgotten how to do anything and huh, doing things is so haaaaaaaard!
I'm pretty sure if Ottawa and BC didn't stand in the way at every turn, Alberta would get shit done but such is the nature of this federation: we move at the speed of the lowest common denominator. No mojo, no drive, let others do the work, you know, it's so much easier that way.
We've turned success into mediocrity, optimism into complacency, drive into apathy but boy do we have opinions on everything and we would never do this and we would never do that and we're not like thoooose guys. Problem is, we have a big mouth but all we spew is useless drivel. Elbows up mf's cause we're wading into a great big puddle of shit and the rest of the world thinks we stink.
I'm more optimistic. Yes, inertia IS the most powerful force in the universe... but clarity is emerging from our woke fog. We have the stuff to sell, and the will is growing. People like the Eby-ego sound sillier every day and, despite the fat, happy last decades we DO know how to build stuff.
Like the woke, the shrieking, sparse minorities on the right margins, and their angry Trudeau tic, (he's gone, you know, like ... for a while now) will also be ignored, because they love the retarded orange mcdonald's garbage can and, yes, we should be judged by the friends we keep.
He almost single handedly squandered the last era of peace and prosperity we will see for a long time, a period where we could have enriched and empowered ourselves and gotten ready for worse times. He gave it all away to make himself and his followers feel warm, fuzzy and righteous. It was a path that would have been unsustainable even if world events had continued to take it easy. It was a disastrous one to set us up for the present situation. Nobody who worked with or enabled him in any way should ever be anywhere near power ever again, but Canadian voters still don't get it.
“ Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.”
Not only brilliant political punditry, but acute and acerbic cultural commentary.
That there is oil involved is not the whole story, in my opinion. It is, rather, very important that Maduro chose to call the U.S. bluff, while holding no cards.
Maduro is a narco-terrorist. He has invited Iranian and Chinese interference into the Western Hemisphere, and within the US sphere of influence. . He has sent gangs to the U.S. to wreak havoc. There is an arrest warrant for him. He has destabilized democracy movements in other countries, not mentioning the murder, theft, and imprisonment he has committed in his own Country.
His wife, also arrested, is evidently the brains of the couple. Maduro chosen by Chavez to lead, after he passed away, because he does what he is told. Hence the huge Chinese, Russian and Middle East incursions.
A comment I read yesterday on this topic takes a slightly different view. That is that most of the investment in Canada’s heavy crude comes from US oil companies and they have invested billions. They are not likely to invest billions in Venezuela to compete with their investments in Canada. We tend to look at our oil from the point of view of revenues to the government(s) and not through the lens of the companies actually producing that oil. From the royalty perspective it’s the sky is falling. There goes healthcare and all the other benefits we enjoy. From the companies view why would we spend billions that would depreciate our current assets.
May have been built with US money but now owned by Canadian companies. According to data from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) in September 2021, companies based in Canada owned approximately 85% of oil sands production—up significantly from 59% in 2014. Major Canadian players include Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL), Suncor Energy, Cenovus, and Imperial Oil—all headquartered in Canada and operating extensively in the heavy/oil sands sector.
Thank-you, you may be correct, except Imperial Oil is owned by Exxon Mobile......and they are closing their offices in Calgary.....moving personal to Edmonton
It was just over three years ago that a friend, and major contributor to the LPC, stated that O&G exploration was dead and will not be resuscitated. Now, he was likely reading from the LPC Weakly Manifesto on "What You Should Think". When exploration increases dramatically, we will have evidence that things have changed.
On the same note, Europeans have ditched their investments in our "Tar sands" and, effectively, cut off their nose to spite their face. Alberta will look to those who support us, just as any economic entity.
My goodness Jen you are a downer today. Keystone is apparently already given the green light and is awaiting CUSMA negotiations to start. It is a chip in the great game. So a new Northern Gateway is now a real long shot. Until Carney and Company are ready to make the hard calls, Canada will follow his lead and dither into the welcoming arms of America.
This is the thing - Keystone is a US pipeline. It is the exact reason why we have not received world prices for our oil because it cannot be sold on the world market. It isn't in our interest to be dependent on it. It is costing us billions in revenue.
That could well be. But we are not going to do a Northern Pipeline anytime soon. Not with UNDRIP on the books. C-48 and C-69. So Keystone is the alternative. Cheap to finish construction and a willing and able buyer.
Then we have to start stating what the consequences of this decision is - we will be trapped to the US market and reduced revenue for public services and possible cuts as a result. Do people want health care and OAS or not? You can't have everything.
You seem to. be arguing against yourself. For all our present day entitlements we need more wealth. That means a growing economy. Do you see much growth in the last decade? Keystone is going to be obviously going forward and yes it will align us more with America. But it is money in the bank and I don't see much else happening.
I'm not. My point is that it is less money in the bank than it should be. The current arrangement with the Keystone pipeline results in the AMERICANS ending up with all the profit. They undercut the price of the oil and sell it to the world at the world price. It is a bad deal for us and a fantastic deal for them. This is because they have a monopoly on the purchase because we can't get the oil to market.
This is why Smith is so frantic on trying to get a pipeline to the West coast. Canada cannot get the world price for its resources. Why would we want to double down on what is a bad deal for us?
The short answer is politics. The Liberals still have a legacy of a socialist party. They still have not got their head wrapped around that expanding commerce in Canada is a good thing. The world is changing at a frightening pace and unfortunately for us, Canadian politicians are not keeping up.
Yes they can but the NDP wrote DRIPA (UNDRIP) and believe in their version of reconciliation. Unfortunately, for homeowners that now encompasses taking away taxpayers homes. The NDP are the problem.
That is the only option for Alberta. And it continues to cost Canada billions.
The Carney MOU is political theater. Far to many conditions and the Federal Major Projects office is just another expensive delay in getting things done.
Because it’s just easier to scoff and do nothing. Build nothing. Say all the right things and then shrug it all off. The future is a long way away and actually doing stuff is hard. Structural problems are hard. It’s better to just coast into decline, really. Half assing is more efficient. That way we never have to piss anyone off or make decisions or set priorities. All we need to do is just say the right and virtuous things and laugh at the clowns running the White House because they’re dumber and meaner and uglier and fatter. We’re the good people and it will probably all work out for us.
I mean, has a better summary of this country ever been written?
Yes, just in the previous paragraph:
Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.
No, that's right on the money!
So right.
Came here to say the exact same thing
That's what Canada voted for last April. If covid actually had been dangerous and carried off the Boomers, we'd be leading the world by now. As it is, genteel decline is probably too good to hope for.
To be honest, I've seen the proposals by the elbows up crowd... And now I'm thankful these guys aren't in charge, and the fact our country does nothing. Thank god for doing nothing.
You assume that, because V's oil will be long in coming, Trump miscalculated. However, it seems unlikely that he/Rubio did NOT know this obvious fact. Rather, whatever Trump says publicly, this attack on V is probably not entirely about oil, but about removing V from Russian and Chinese influence, which have been substantial and were growing. The NSS made clear that the Americas were US's territory; this attack shows the seriousness of that assertion. Sure, oil matters, and US policy makers surely want to be certain that V's oil goes to the US over the long term, but getting Russia and China out of Latin America, and asserting US control over the region, was more likely their immediate aim. Your comments about the need for Canada to build pipelines are on the money though :)
I mean, maybe. I just don't believe that these guys are playing 4D chess. JG
Rubio is literally already walking back Trump's statements. Occam's razor is that these guys really are what they appear to be. They're winging it on vibes. JG
https://globalnews.ca/news/11598814/us-wont-govern-venezuela-trump-comments/
My theory is that Trump really, really hated Maduro's videos mocking Trump's dancing - it was personal and similar to his feelings about Trudeau who liked to make jokes at Trump's expense, and Obama who shredded him at the Press Club dinner. The dude is nothing but vindictive (and maybe somewhat dementia addled).
We're believing what we hear on Global news now? Cool story...
Sure, the US won't govern V. Why would they? They only need to oversee the government there, and make clear what will happen if that govt doesn't toe the US line. Of course someone is clarifying Trump's comment on running V. To "run" V, they don't have to "govern" V. They only have to make clear what they want done.
Perhaps we should allow for a very clear possibility that a couple of layers in the background there is a US team who does play a 4D chess, even if this team may have limited influence on the front US team. It is doubtful that Trumpsters would manage to flush competence out of all the administration layers.
You take that bet. I'll take this one. JG
It is 1D chess. Venezuela was rich when US companies were extracting the oil, so let US companies extract the oil.
This is the problem of "the rider and the elephant", as described by Jonathan Haidt in his book "The Righteous Mind". Haidt talked about how a rider had limited control to get an elephant to move in a particular direction, but if the elephant was determined to choose a particular path, there was very little the rider could do other than go along for the ride.
Haidt's analogy was meant to describe the relationship between human reason and intuition, but it works well for the Trump administration because Trump is *all* gut instinct. Administration officials in both his first and second terms have seen carefully reasoned plans trampled as Trump blunders the way he wants to go. If administration officials want to succeed, they either need to align their plans with Trump's instincts or fly under the radar. Ever notice that in Trump's first term, his administration's greatest successes were the ones where Trump was the *least* involved? For example, the big tax bill and the COVID vaccine development. In contrast, the areas where Trump was most engaged like his border wall were abject failures.
I believe Trump is callous enough to be fully informed and still sleep easy at night... Albeit his tweeting record would show otherwise. Can the Americans really defeat international dictatorships of which are armed with nukes without playing 4D chess? Is Xi correct in that journalists need to be kept in the dark?
Rather than this constant use of this 4D chess analogy, how about maybe, just perhaps, it's possible that US security in the western hemisphere might just be playing a role in US actions? Or is that Big Stick approach only equivalent to your idea of 4D chess?
Well... Suggesting that Trump is uninformed about how long V's oil production will take to ramp up I think is a weak link in an otherwise-good argument. Trump may be poorly informed, sure, and no doubt he's a loony, but he has lots of capable, informed people around him. Of course oil matters, no one would say it doesn't. (Oil is one reason to attack V and not Cuba, for example--Cuba offers little to the US). But... to the current US govt, so does getting Russia and China out of US sphere of influence. I don't think the latter factor can be overlooked--the US is reclaiming its hinterland from these countries after years of letting them get entrenched. I don't know that that's 4D chess... it's not diabolically clever or anything, its already in the NSS....
Here is a quote from Rubio on the matter:
“This is the Western Hemisphere. This is where we live -- and we're not going to allow the Western Hemisphere to be a base of operation for adversaries, competitors, and rivals of the United States."
And from page 17 (.pdf) of the “National Security Strategy - November 2025
“The Western Hemisphere is home to many strategic resources that America should partner with regional allies to develop, to make neighboring countries as well as
our own more prosperous. The National Security Council will immediately begin a
robust interagency process to task agencies, supported by our Intelligence Community’s analytical arm, to identify strategic points and resources in the Western Hemisphere with a view to their protection and joint development with regional partners.
Non-Hemispheric competitors have made major inroads into our Hemisphere, both to disadvantage us economically in the present, and in ways that may harm us strategically in the future. Allowing these incursions without serious pushback is another great American strategic mistake of recent decades.
The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of
our security and prosperity—a condition that allows us to assert ourselves confidently where and when we need to in the region. The terms of our alliances,
and the terms upon which we provide any kind of aid, must be contingent on winding down adversarial outside influence—from control of military installations,
ports, and key infrastructure to the purchase of strategic assets broadly defined.”
Bang on! Lots of talk about oil but that is just a red herring, although the US would keep the oil. The real reason is clearly found in the” National Security Strategy of the United States of America “ Rubio more so than Trump is focused on South America and the “spheres of influence “ philosophy, especially with his Vuban background and his longstanding hate for Maduro.
Back in the first Trump term, it was commonly said that you needed to take Trump seriously but not literally. What we've learned since then is that the only reason Trump couldn't be taken literally was that there were serious people straining mightily to keep his worst instincts in check. In Trump's second term, you should be taking Trump both seriously AND literally. What you see with Trump is what you get: a narcissistic man who acts on impulse and instinct, and has a worldview consistent with a mafia don.
its about the oil, aka theft.
patterns of behaviour are reliable.
Nobody in North America was upset when Chevron was making the country rich before.
Of apparently zero concern for those assured the Beijing-inspired narrative is the right/main one concerning the US removal of Maduro (the 'The US is in it for the oil' crowd):
"During the operation, 32 Cuban operatives from the Revolutionary Armed Forces and the Ministry of the Interior were killed while defending Maduro. Their deaths were not denied by Havana. On the contrary, the Cuban government confirmed both the casualties and their military ranks in Presidential Decree No. 1147, signed by Miguel Díaz-Canel, which also declared two days of national mourning. The decree amounted to an extraordinary admission: Cuban state forces were embedded at the highest levels of Venezuela’s security apparatus." (source: https://www.thebureau.news/p/cubas-security-state-colonization?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1444443&post_id=183666503&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=3s7a0&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email )
Just how nervous, I wonder, is the leadership in Nicaragua today, one that is also governed much as a Havana proxy, and through that the administering of goals by China and Russia and Iran? I'm sure not in the least (me being a savvy critic of the US by using the ever-so-true narratives of the Evil Empire from Beijing & CO) because of their lack of similar oil reserves that the western media pundits 'know' is the right reason to reveal the REAL objective behind the US interdiction in and around Venezuela.
Ahem.
It's entirely about oil. Whether American business is willing to risk the investment is the bigger question? What American foreign policy will be remains to be seen. Their shoot first, and then plan strategy has never worked. Would you invest a trillion dollars in a country where you have no idea who will be in charge in 2 years? Are Americans ready to watch their kids die in another pointless American war? Trump plans to rape Venezuela of everything. We'll see how the populace responds to that, and we already know America sucks at dealing with guerrilla warfare. There are no answers....just questions, and America is imploding at the same time.
Bingo!
For me, regime change is nothing new for America. It's just much more direct now. Manuel Noriega got the same treatment and the world didn't fall apart. America, I am quite certain now, is well on its way to a Reichstag Fire moment. Just a matter of time. We are not safe.
The thing that I find the most disturbing about Canada's situation is that there is absolutely no discussion at high levels about how we are going to pay for things. OAS is not free. Medicare is not free. Public education is not free. Government-funded infrastructure is not free.
We have a 78 billion dollar deficit. Our federal national debt is approaching 1.5 trillion. If you add in provincial debt, we are at 2 trillion. People keep acting like everything is ok because a credit rating agency says we are good.
If not oil, how are we going to pay for the lifestyle that we currently cannot afford?
Every penny of deficit spending and accumulated debt is a future tax liability.
Canadians can face reality now, or have reality thrust upon them at a later date.
Alas, there is no party in the last 50 years with a record of fiscal responsibility.
Chretien’s Liberals???
Downloaded their costs to the provinces to make their books look good.
Correct.
But we can just bring in another 60 million people and figure that they each bring like $10K with them to create new economic activity before they start receiving our cherished and unassailable social benefits. That ought to solve the problem.
Canada used to focus on bringing in skilled immigrants. We don't need more unskilled immigrants who end up working in hospitality or driving Ubers.
An opinion that can only be borne of unvarnished racism. Don't you know that no Canadian, except maybe the Indigenous depending on the context of the argument and whether we remember they exist at that moment, has any more right to be here than any other random person at any point on earth? Therefore Canadian residency and citizenship should be open to literally anyone who asks. I mean that's been our de facto immigration policy for 10 years now anyway.
Canada has a declining birth rate. We need immigrants for the taxes alone.
You can't justify the last 10 years of immigration policy on that basis.
It's a fact. Canada has a declining birth rate. Gotta get taxpayers from somewhere.
Rogers, Loblaws and the Century Initiative thank you for your service.
I suspect whichever party wins the next majority government will have to do a cleanup of government finances like Paul Martin did from 1994 to 1997. He cut the civil service & transfer payments to the provinces & was able to use money from the new GST to raise revenues. Canada should also begin reducing payments of OAS to families with incomes above 90K. The current clawback is based on individual income, not Family Income.
Benefits to the oldies are untouchable, as Harper found out. Unless we are willing to raise the GST by 10 points and cut the rest of the federal payments to provinces we won't be able to replicate Chretien and Martin's trick.
People present this as some kind of harmless financial miracle but it required huge sacrifices, just ones the '90s Liberals were very successful at deflecting blame for. "The GST is Mulroney's fault and the schools and hospitals are suddenly falling apart due to provincial austerity, not bone-deep federal cuts."
As noted before by David Lindsay, the feds in the 90s downloaded the debt to the provinces to make the books look better.
Which begs he question of why we're selling to the US at a discount instead of refining here, and selling finished products. We're still going to have to give things up, but you can't get elected telling voters that.
Because refining is a polluting process that would never be sold to the tree huggers
I have yet to hear the idea floated here, so I reject that notion. I've heard "refineries cost too much". That doesn't hold any water in this environment....pun intended. Considering the fire that McMurray suffered, some of what the "tree huggers" say shouldn't be ignored. Climate change will impose itself on our world again, soon enough.
Have asked that question many times, and my engineering friends in O&G have always said it doesn't make economic sense for Alberta. Perhaps we need to ask again, or maybe BC should refine it before it gets sent abroad.
What I don't understand about that argument is that they think it makes economic sense to sell it at a discount, and then buy it back, sending the profits to the US? That sounds like a very US-slanted view. But I also believe 100% of the Canadian market should be supplied with Canadian-made/extracted fuels.
Our eastern refineries are tuned for the lighter, 'sweeter' crude oil rather than the heavier, 'sour' crude that Alberta has so much of. Our best bet would be to refine it here in the West, but while it's been talked about for literally half a century, we've made minimal progress. Exporting raw crude to the USA was the easier, cheaper (and very Canadian) way of doing things.
With you, 100%.
Canada can do exactly zero to affect global climate change. Any imposition will be entirely externally generated. Can we deal with our domestic consumption side? Sure! But to attack the supply side in complete folly and vanity, and will lead to a national suicide.
Which ignores the question of why we are selling at a discount instead of selling finished products.
Zero? We'll agree to disagree. Yes, we're a small player, and our climate dictates we will emit above our weight class, but we need to look at what we're doing.
Provincial suicide is Danielle pretending that the future isn't green. Even China has figured that out. The only thing that might be saving Alberta's oil industry in light of Trump's insanity is the amount of money US companies have invested in the tar sands.
I'm all for selling oil and LNG to other countries to get them off coal. How long those markets will demand the volumes they do is a different question. Oil is not the future. Let's see how this year's fire season goes. That could flip everything.
“Which ignores the question of why we are selling at a discount instead of selling finished products.”
Basic economics is the answer. Refineries are incredibly expensive. 10’s of billions each. The US already has these refineries already built, and they are built where it makes sense. Transport is critical. Out of a refinery goes, Gas, diesel, Kerosene, jet fuel, coke, propane… among other things. Each of these products ships separately to end use locations. The market is in the US, it makes far more sense to distribute out of a central location to most of the US than from Canada.
Canada emits 1.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a rounding error in the grand scheme. We have zero ability to affect global climate change, except to export NG at as great a scale as possible.
Danielle Smith has agreed to a $130 tonne industrial Carbon tax price. More than all the other major emitters (save europe) in the world have done. What’s China and India’s price on Carbon?
People say “oil isn’t the future” and then wax poetically about “renewables.” Let’s talk energy density, let’s talk base load. Let’s talk embodied energy of these “renewables.” Do you know how much steel are in those windmills for a 20 year life span? And then on top of this AI is set to exponentially increase energy demand. Make no mistake. Oil/NG is the future - it just will also need to be nuclear as well.
What’s tiresome in Canada is how myopic and self important we are. I was in Mexico over Christmas, every night smoke from burning garbage wafted through the air. It’s time to wake up and smell it.
The feds could sell Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta to the US.
No debt, no Eastern Canada oversight. Win-Win.
If the Americans are successful, Canada will lose its heavy oil market on the Gulf Coast and China will need another source. If the Americans aren't successful, Canada will maintain its market on the Gulf Coast and China will need another source as Venezuela will have descended further into chaos. Canada's response to the first scenario is to build another pipeline to the Pacific. Canada's response to the second is to build another pipeline to the Pacific. If the US and China are both pursuing petroleum resources, climate activists are wrong: oil demand isn't going away.
the Q is whether we build pipeline faster than the US can rebuild the infrastructure they stole.
From what I have read, the Venezuelan oil infrastructure was originally American oil company built, expropriated when Chavez came to power. So there's that.
Not exactly. Venezuela nationalized its oil industry in 1976, in a negotiation where the (mostly) American companies were duly compensated and where they remained as customers and partners in new developments.
The Americans not only left the infrastructure in place, but also a well trained workforce that, by 1999, had put the Venezuelan oil company (PDVSA) as the third biggest in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco and Exxon Mobil.
Unfortunately, that was the year when the mafia (Hugo Chavez) came to power. By 2002, he fired pretty much everyone (20000 employees at once) and the oil industry started to fall apart since then. BTW, many of those fired employees now live in Alberta and continue to contribute to the development of the oil sands.
Thanks for the info....hard to know what is good to believe or not in this day and age.
This.
I have little respect for a commentariat that marginalized CANZUK advocates like myself for the last 20 yrs who warned about this danger who now whine and moan about a situation that is at an inflection point.
Not directed you or Matt...I think you've been more prescient than a lot of others.
The problem with CANZUK is that there just wasn't enough interest in it. Unless I'm very much mistaken, it didn't have anything close to critical mass support in Canada and support in the UK and New Zealand was quite a bit lower.
It seems a little like the the late 18th to mid-19th century idea of restructuring the British Empire / commonwealth as a confederation. It came up several times over the decades, but it never took off and never had anything close to the support such a change would need.
You can probably make a good case in retrospect that all the countries proposed would be far better off today if this had gone ahead... but it just wasn't going to happen because everyone involved at the time had different priorities for their neck of the woods.
Actually CANZUK International did polling during the last election that showed majority support for the idea, across party, provincial & linguistic lines: https://www.canzukinternational.com/2025/04/polling-significant-majority-of-canadians-support-canzuk-free-trade-deal.html
People assume we're talking a federation, but the majority of us in the movement just want enhanced cooperation on trade, defence, diplomatic efforts and - eventually when we can fix our immigration mess - free movement.
No Empire 2.0 and no severing US trade...just a mutually beneficial liberal democratic pole in a multipolar world where liberal democratic norms and national sovereignty are in question.
Again, I could be wrong, but I think a lot of that was soft “I like the idea… as long as it’s what I think it of and not what the other supporter thinks it is”. I’m sure if they’d baked me they’d have put me answer in the support camp. I’m not opposed to free trade with the UK or New Zealand. But also not going to be a yes to any and every version of that. But in principle, I’m a yes.
If I’m wrong, the obvious question is if it had majority support in every party why did the party in government do jack squat about it?
Governments tend to reject things they oppose not things they support.
I have my theories (based in part on my own dealings with Ottawa types on this) but I think a lot of it came down to people either not treating it (or the proponents) seriously or just a lot of conventional thought that says the US relationship will go back to normal in a couple of years, or the Pearsonian view of "multilateralism for multilateralism's sake." There is a lot of inertia and no hunger among some for risk or leading an initiative of this scope
That seems about right. And that’s effectively the same thing as not enough interest.
In theory I like free trade with New Zealand, but I’ve never emailed my MP about it… I’m not *that* strongly in favour…. I’m equally in favour of free trade with Japan, France, Switzerland or Australia. South Korea is also somewhere we might look.
If we want things like free trade, we’ve got to rest stop responding to American “buy American” protectionism with the same thing.
The answer to a buy American order in the US is not a buy Canadian order up here because that harms everyone not just the Americans. If the Americans insist on a buy American policy, then we should have a “buy anyone except American” policy so as not to harm the countries that actually want to have free trade with us.
The suggestion that removing Maduro was all about (or even mainly about oil) is rather naive. First, Canadians need to wake up to the reality that Americans care about the drug crisis that is destroying their society (as it is in parts of Canada). Reforming Venezuela will not only help stop cocaine flowing from there, it will also help them impact and reduce the flow of fentanyl (and its pre-cursors) from China and Mexico. Canada needs to get serious about stopping the production of fentanyl within Canada, and its export to the US, if it wants to be taken seriously by Trump. Second, as other comments point out, this is stage one of the new Trump/Monroe doctrine. The US is now serious about getting China, Russia and communism out of the Americas. Again, Canada needs to wake up to the reality of CCP influence in Canada if it wants to be taken seriously by Trump.
If they cared about drugs, why did Trump pardon a drug-lord? This was never about drugs. The only thing Trump takes seriously is whatever idea pops in his head. The US has zero credibility on any issue today.
Cocaine might explain the sorry states of the movie and music industries, but it has nothing to do with the fentanyl and meth crises.
Sorry, but it's mainly about acquiring a massive reserve of oil and hemispheric control.
It's not (much) about drugs and stamping out communism as it is hemispheric control.
If the Trump admin cares about cocaine so much, why did he pardon Hernandez?
What evidence do you have that the Trump admin plans to 'reform' Venezuela, as the regime is still in charge there, and the current VP they left in chage is an avowed ideological socialist?
They've not thought beyond the optics of the missles raining down on Caracas and getting meme-able video of Maduro doing the perp walk in his PJ's. They have no clue what to do in Venezuala, other than making deals to line the pockets of those close to the POTUS, which has been in evidence ever since he took office.
Read the US Foreign Policy document released last month. It outline their desired spheres of influence, with the USA controlling the Western Hemisphere.
The so-called 'Donroe' Doctrine is 19th century thinking with 21st century weapons and technology - what could possibly go wrong?
The only things I agree with you on is that Canada can and should deal with its fentanyl and other drug policy issues, and need to forcibly combat and root out the reality of CCP and other foreign influence in Canada. Neither of these things should be to impress Trump, who does not really give a damn about either issue, despite his occasional ravings to impress the cameras and domestic political supporters.
This piece is why I love the writing of Jen Gersen…
“And … I just don’t think we’ve got what it takes to be stronger than this. Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.”
“… huff its own farts” made me laugh out loud in a black humour sort of way..... thankfully I had finished my coffee... It’s so true though… sigh. Thanks Jen.
I really hope you're wrong. That this time is so serious and so different that we’re gonna actually DO something.
Like it or not, it is a bet we are all taking, we who live in the Great White North… that we will find the will to DO something to address our economic and military dependence on the country to our south. Last week, my daughter-in-law bought eggs from MANITOBA and LOVES them! She lives in ONTARIO! Things are changin’ baby! Maybe we’ll get some of that good French butter soon too.
Yeah, really, that’s what change looks like. Small, incremental… more internal trade, more external markets and a larger international aisle in the supermarket. That’s a start. Maybe some BC wine on Ontario shelves (G-d forbid)… baby steps that lead to more diversity, tip toeing out of the US sphere without causing too much of a stir. A Grippen or two… maybe a submarine… who knows!? Dream big! A sovereign cloud? A Canadian GPS?
Because if we don’t, I fear we’ll not be the 51st state, but our reality will be more like Puerto Rico’s. I’m sure it’s a lovely place, but they aren’t a State, and that makes all the difference. They are still cleaning up from the Sept. 2017 hurricane for goodness sake, with next to no help from Uncle Sam.
And that, my friends, is not what I want for myself or my kids. We gotta DO something real or we’re truly up shit’s creek.
Keep going Jen... you're doing great.
I think this could be applied to a great many things in Canada. Politicians have stopped being leaders and have decided popularity matters more. What they’ve missed in the avoidance of dealing with tough situations is that if you deal with a tough situation well, you get a whole lot of political capital back. But when you avoid it, it’s the beginning of your own demise.
Canadian politicians seem a bit suicidal in that regard. Too bad we can’t seem to do a better job of finding a middle ground. We don’t have to go to the American extremes - we just need to do more than nothing. And plan it out so that it has meaning.
Politicians reflect the electorate. It is the electorate that is a bit suicidal. We refuse to accept the fact that the world has changed.
I don’t think it’s all one way. What politicians tells voters influences them. Maybe media influences some - I don’t know how many are exposed to radio and tv media these days, I know it’s rare around my house, but I’m sure that has an influence too. But I think real leaders could navigate this. Polievre has the popularity. If he wanted to use it that way. But he doesn’t.
Same with Carney. Nobody wants to actually have the needed conversations with the electorate and so people have forgotten that’s even a thing.
Yes. And first we have to figure out how to neutralize the destructive screaming and destructive actions - subsidized by taxpayers'd money - of the leftist nutbars.
If our government stopped subsidizing the dependant groups that lobby them for ever more ridiculous and impractical concessions, market forces would solve a lot of our problems. Suddenly those pipelines would make a whole lot more sense to everyone nearby. But asking a Liberal to stop buying votes is like asking a fish to stop swimming.
The LPC is about to pay the piper. The referendum in PQ on sovereignty will not be won by federalists without buying votes. That will further alienate those who have to pay on their behalf. Things will come to a head soon enough.
One thing that most people miss: I think the move was as much to secure oil for itself as denying oil to its enemies (Cuba, DPRK, China, etc).
They may do nothing about it for decades and just sit on the stockpile just to piss the "axis of evil™" off.
Add to that the potential fall of Islamic Republic of Iran and replacing the mullahs with a friendly regime. All of a sudden, China is cooked and Hormuz is open for business.
We're still very far from peak oil and that will shape geopolitics for decades.
Think what you will of "might makes right" (not condoning it), but I think there is a logic to this that most miss and even more worryingly, refuse to imagine that Trump could be anything more than a dummy.
It's a mistake to underestimate him.
Because the US is okay for energy for at least 10 years, there is no rush to get the Venezuela oil to market. Stockpiling is reasonable.
It is unlikely that Canada will get anything built in the next 10 years, so all that has to happen is get Keystone running until they don't need Canada anymore. Alberta will continue to sell it's oil to the states because that is the only available option.
The US administration is completely aware of how dysfunctional Canada is.
At current rate it's 15 years, but that's not counting new fields discovery or technological advances that unlock previously unexploitable sources.
One more reason why we're fucked. Our betters should be running some version of Asshole Canada™. Instead we have Mark "Carnage" Carney and his "uuhss, aaahs, ummms", peppered with platitudes in between.
Maybe if the non lunatic right can get their act together for 2028 in BC, there might be a chance. Like the Line from the weekend said, DEI, Indigenous virtue signaling etc are not at all in the top 10 of voter concerns.
please, please let this be the case.
the Eby-ego may be more destructive than even the teacher was.
Greece kind of went down that 4 point path route a couple of decades ago and we know how that went. I could even live with that if we had Greece's topography and climate, but that ain't happening. If we do not get serious about getting our greatest natural resource to the world market ( outside of the US), we will become the poster child for the 4 point plan.
Canada has nothing in the tank. We've done nothing for so long, we've forgotten how to do anything and huh, doing things is so haaaaaaaard!
I'm pretty sure if Ottawa and BC didn't stand in the way at every turn, Alberta would get shit done but such is the nature of this federation: we move at the speed of the lowest common denominator. No mojo, no drive, let others do the work, you know, it's so much easier that way.
We've turned success into mediocrity, optimism into complacency, drive into apathy but boy do we have opinions on everything and we would never do this and we would never do that and we're not like thoooose guys. Problem is, we have a big mouth but all we spew is useless drivel. Elbows up mf's cause we're wading into a great big puddle of shit and the rest of the world thinks we stink.
Another great piece.
I'm more optimistic. Yes, inertia IS the most powerful force in the universe... but clarity is emerging from our woke fog. We have the stuff to sell, and the will is growing. People like the Eby-ego sound sillier every day and, despite the fat, happy last decades we DO know how to build stuff.
Like the woke, the shrieking, sparse minorities on the right margins, and their angry Trudeau tic, (he's gone, you know, like ... for a while now) will also be ignored, because they love the retarded orange mcdonald's garbage can and, yes, we should be judged by the friends we keep.
Trudeau's aftereffects are not gone and will be hampering us for at least a generation.
He almost single handedly squandered the last era of peace and prosperity we will see for a long time, a period where we could have enriched and empowered ourselves and gotten ready for worse times. He gave it all away to make himself and his followers feel warm, fuzzy and righteous. It was a path that would have been unsustainable even if world events had continued to take it easy. It was a disastrous one to set us up for the present situation. Nobody who worked with or enabled him in any way should ever be anywhere near power ever again, but Canadian voters still don't get it.
Two of my biggest concerns are Sec.35 (“title”) and the Pandora’s box named UNDRIP (“consent”)… and how the SCC will interpret
“ Isolation, ease, and relative wealth have allowed us to grow into lazy and complacent nation that hasn’t done much for the world in the last 25 years except huff its own farts.”
Not only brilliant political punditry, but acute and acerbic cultural commentary.
That there is oil involved is not the whole story, in my opinion. It is, rather, very important that Maduro chose to call the U.S. bluff, while holding no cards.
Maduro is a narco-terrorist. He has invited Iranian and Chinese interference into the Western Hemisphere, and within the US sphere of influence. . He has sent gangs to the U.S. to wreak havoc. There is an arrest warrant for him. He has destabilized democracy movements in other countries, not mentioning the murder, theft, and imprisonment he has committed in his own Country.
His wife, also arrested, is evidently the brains of the couple. Maduro chosen by Chavez to lead, after he passed away, because he does what he is told. Hence the huge Chinese, Russian and Middle East incursions.
A comment I read yesterday on this topic takes a slightly different view. That is that most of the investment in Canada’s heavy crude comes from US oil companies and they have invested billions. They are not likely to invest billions in Venezuela to compete with their investments in Canada. We tend to look at our oil from the point of view of revenues to the government(s) and not through the lens of the companies actually producing that oil. From the royalty perspective it’s the sky is falling. There goes healthcare and all the other benefits we enjoy. From the companies view why would we spend billions that would depreciate our current assets.
That said we still need that pipeline.
May have been built with US money but now owned by Canadian companies. According to data from the Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) in September 2021, companies based in Canada owned approximately 85% of oil sands production—up significantly from 59% in 2014. Major Canadian players include Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL), Suncor Energy, Cenovus, and Imperial Oil—all headquartered in Canada and operating extensively in the heavy/oil sands sector.
Thank-you, you may be correct, except Imperial Oil is owned by Exxon Mobile......and they are closing their offices in Calgary.....moving personal to Edmonton
It was just over three years ago that a friend, and major contributor to the LPC, stated that O&G exploration was dead and will not be resuscitated. Now, he was likely reading from the LPC Weakly Manifesto on "What You Should Think". When exploration increases dramatically, we will have evidence that things have changed.
On the same note, Europeans have ditched their investments in our "Tar sands" and, effectively, cut off their nose to spite their face. Alberta will look to those who support us, just as any economic entity.
My goodness Jen you are a downer today. Keystone is apparently already given the green light and is awaiting CUSMA negotiations to start. It is a chip in the great game. So a new Northern Gateway is now a real long shot. Until Carney and Company are ready to make the hard calls, Canada will follow his lead and dither into the welcoming arms of America.
Nothing good came from nor will ever come from Carney and Company
This is the thing - Keystone is a US pipeline. It is the exact reason why we have not received world prices for our oil because it cannot be sold on the world market. It isn't in our interest to be dependent on it. It is costing us billions in revenue.
That could well be. But we are not going to do a Northern Pipeline anytime soon. Not with UNDRIP on the books. C-48 and C-69. So Keystone is the alternative. Cheap to finish construction and a willing and able buyer.
Then we have to start stating what the consequences of this decision is - we will be trapped to the US market and reduced revenue for public services and possible cuts as a result. Do people want health care and OAS or not? You can't have everything.
You seem to. be arguing against yourself. For all our present day entitlements we need more wealth. That means a growing economy. Do you see much growth in the last decade? Keystone is going to be obviously going forward and yes it will align us more with America. But it is money in the bank and I don't see much else happening.
I'm not. My point is that it is less money in the bank than it should be. The current arrangement with the Keystone pipeline results in the AMERICANS ending up with all the profit. They undercut the price of the oil and sell it to the world at the world price. It is a bad deal for us and a fantastic deal for them. This is because they have a monopoly on the purchase because we can't get the oil to market.
This is why Smith is so frantic on trying to get a pipeline to the West coast. Canada cannot get the world price for its resources. Why would we want to double down on what is a bad deal for us?
The short answer is politics. The Liberals still have a legacy of a socialist party. They still have not got their head wrapped around that expanding commerce in Canada is a good thing. The world is changing at a frightening pace and unfortunately for us, Canadian politicians are not keeping up.
Can’t BC just reverse their adoption of UNDRIP in law and be done with this whole fiasco?
Yes they can but the NDP wrote DRIPA (UNDRIP) and believe in their version of reconciliation. Unfortunately, for homeowners that now encompasses taking away taxpayers homes. The NDP are the problem.
That is the only option for Alberta. And it continues to cost Canada billions.
The Carney MOU is political theater. Far to many conditions and the Federal Major Projects office is just another expensive delay in getting things done.
So more oil sold to the US at a discount.