I think we’ve reached the end of a real bilateral relationship with the United States. Friendship is over. Even a transactional alliance is pretty damn close to the brink.
Amen. I think the antidote to cynicism and nihilism - to the degree there is one - is leading through values. So many of your recent columns shine with values (I probably don’t need to say this but I will - good values rather than the nutsack values of the current American administration).
A lot of political columns lead with the author’s own cynicism: who’s up, who’s down, was that tactical or was that strategic. I can live with that a bit, but what I really want to know is are we doing the right thing. Not who is winning the latest news cycle, but when years have intervened between now and the time when the future histories are written, will we be proud of our leaders? Did they represent our values proudly and proudly reflect their own?
If Canada manages to get through all this, it will be in part because we stayed true to the things that are most important, including character and integrity. Jen, you’re doing a terrific job lifting our heads up out the muck that defines so much of current discourse.
You should have run this one past a different proofreader. You wrote: "an influencer"... "because this is what Conservatism in Canada is now". The next paragraph (and sentence) begins with "The Conservative party is".
Yes, an influencer took an extreme and tasteless position. But that influencer is NOT representative of the Conservative Party nor the entire conservative movement. Nor is there any valid link between that deplorable influencer and the Conservative Party. But your writing implied that they are one and the same.
Canada is in the mess it is because of the airtime given to the lunatic fringes at both ends of the spectrum stealing the oxygen from more reasonable discussions. It is now almost impossible to get anything done because of the constant pandering to and/or avoidance of these very vocal groups.
The influencer isn't representative of the Party, unless the Party chooses consciously to associate itself with that influencer -- by prioritizing interviews with the leader; giving them special access and treatment -- and even speaking spots (!) at convention. The CPC did all this, consciously and knowingly, in a bid to create a kind of "regime media" for itself.
Those very same people then found themselves in the tank for the Americans, and the CPC doesn't seem to know how to extricate itself from its own self-created audience capture problem. Lessons learned all around. There is a reason media should never be fully in the tent. JG
The Line might need to take the bullshit detector into the repair shop. The CPC gave media accreditation to CTV, Pierre gave an interview to Rosemary Barton, but this doesn't mean the Party endorses the editorial position of Global News. Just because Jasmine Lane spoke about mental health at the convention does not mean the Party endorses every tweet from the Pleb.
Are you seriously comparing legacy media like CBC/Global/CTV who have professional reporters that are present at virtually all political events to some random tiktok influencer who was specifically invited?
Yes, I was making a comparison, which is not the same as conflating, but the point was to highlight the unseriousness of holding you accountable for the views of a Matt, because you gave an interview to Jen. I'm a Line Subscriber and I have never seen any videos by any of these streamers, so it feels a tad disorienting as a Conservative to have my paid influencers tell me random tiktokers are representative of my party. The legacy media were also specifically invited for the same reason specific streamers were invited, so the party's message could reach the widest receptive audience. The Conservative Party is literally the people who paid the $1100 to attend the convention, not the media who attend for free. The Conservative MP who represents the cadets told Hegseth to shut up or man up and fight him. Are his views not more representative of the Conservative Party than some random Twitch streamer?
If your lead criticism is proofreading, maybe you've missed the point.
As an aside, what does it say about the Conservative Party that its leader is too afraid of Jamil Jivani to kick him out of caucus for promoting JD Vance's talking points? That's a powerful tell about the party's base.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but did the CPC not only invite them to their convention, but give them prominent spots at it? That would seem to me to be a very valid link.
The Party gave media accreditation to people who work in social media and traditional media. One person who works in social media, Jasmine Lane spoke at the convention about her advocacy on mental health. So this is like Jen claiming the CPC believes 9/11 wasn't terrorism because the leader gave an interview to Global News.
Well, as with anything though, those influencers exist on a spectrum too. On both the left and the right, we've gotten far too comfortable in hearing a position and using that position to paint the entire opposing camp.
I don't disagree, but if you're the Conservatives vying for any kind of relevancy right now you simply cannot afford to shoot yourself in the foot like that. The only logical conclusions to take away it is that they've either made a fairly large error in judgement, or a decent subsection of the party is sympathetic to those positions.
We have overwhelming evidence of americucks who love fat orange baby in the CPC... not many for sure, but enough to confuse the party into an unintelligible strategy.
That influencer is most certainly representative of how Conservatives and their bots behave online . Whine at this and that, toxicity, misinformation, canada is broken, blah blah blah. It bleeds off votes by the truckload. Its like they are intentionally trying to get people to not vote Conservative so they can continue their ragebait "poor us, only we know the truth". I vote Conservative over the years because of small government and creating your own opportunity as some of the core economic values. But this whole "the government ruined me and I cant get up off my ass because of Trudeau and THE LIBS" is such self defeatist trash. Trumps behaviour has just enabled more of them to act this way; and the result is a likely 3 term Mark Carney.
Let us pray that “moving on” does not mean jumping into alliances with the CCP which appears to be the direction we’re moving as evidenced by the recent appointment of Dominic Barton.
Doing more business with them and giving them market access in return for the same from them? Yeah, it probably does mean exactly that.
And that's a consequence of the new world Donald Trump made. I don't like it, but he didn't ask my permission before he decided to make the US into something we'd have to distrust for the rest of my lifetime. That's where we are now. We will never trust the US again, because we cannot trust them again.
And it almost certainly can't be increased cooperation with Japan, South Korea & Europe. It's going to involve dealing more with China.
Because that is unfortunately, the only option open to us since the US has made clear their intent to turn us into their vassal. And yeah, China would probably love to do that too. The difference is they can't. So we don't have to work as hard to prevent it.
THIS. Oh my god, how do more people not understand, the Chinese superpower may be more distasteful but they inherently can’t vassalize us due to distance. So they’re inherently less of a threat.
We should still be clear that the Chinese government is still a *threat*. They are NOT our friends. And it doesn't look like they want to be either. They have a history of trying to mess with our elections, spying on us, threatening ethnically Chinese Canadians and retaliating on trade if we have the temerity to say what we think about slave labour or invading your neighbours. (Not to mention industrial espionage and sabotage of Canadian companies.)
They are NOT friends.
That said, the Americans are pushing us into this and we unfortunately have to work with China more now. We just have to be careful. It's far less than ideal, but it is what it is.
“Whatever happens / we have got / the Maxim gun / and they have not”. The technological dominance of the European imperial powers over the developing world at that time was overwhelming. If the Indians fought back they were slaughtered, which actually happened, many times. Canada, as I’ve pointed out many times, is a breakout nuclear weapons state that could have a bomb within a year if we faced a crisis. Not comparable.
Also, seriously, you want to compare Canadian institutions, intelligence, ability to respond to threats to that of a non-industrial backwater 150 years ago? I mean, I know people think Trudeau degraded Canadian institutions, but come on. Yes, we let it get embarrassingly bad under Trudeau (Chinese secret police stations in Canada etc.) but we’re fixing that now. This isn’t actually that hard as soon as we put some adults in charge.
It worked for Britain because they kept a Military presence in India. The US hasn't decided that as regards Canada- or have they- check the document- The National Security Strategy of The United States of America.
A Canadian Conservative candidate literally was unable to run in the last federal election because of CCP threats. A church here in BC was surrounded by CCP thugs and people were barricaded inside for hours. CSIS has been reporting since the 1990s they’ve been successfully buying off politicans at all levels of government. They’ve been using land transferred to First Nations to do a lot of illegal shit. CCP drug running and money laundering has hugely contributed to cost of living and the fentanyl crisis - killing thousands and thousands of Canadians. But yeah, they can’t “vassalise” us.
Yep. That's right. They can't "vassalize" us. They can hurt us, but they can't do that.
As I said, they're not our friends. They're an adversary. But the real world limits what's within their power and what isn't.
They have the power to do all the things you mentioned. But to "vassalize" us they need to be able to project military power across an ocean which they can't. They need radically more economic power over us (like the Americans have). Ultimately, they need geographic proximity because the very thing that makes diversification so hard for us also limits who can "vassalize" us.
Or to put it another way... they need to be the United States. And they're not.
Oh and also... to "vassalize" Canada, China also needs the USA to disappear because while the USA might be done with the old arrangement of us underspending and them making all the major decisions on the continent and defence, they're not done with being the only global power in the western hemisphere. That's where the USA has always been quite prepared to use hard power.
*************
But you're right... they can hurt us.. which is why under formerly normal circumstances distancing ourselves was the better choice. But Mr. Trump wrecked that. Now we can't trust the USA and we have to balance two hostile forces which are different kinds of threats to us.
You have decades of real measurable harms which has very directly led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Canadians, the subourning of politicans, corrupted elections, and drug money poured into housing.
Vasalising means what, concretely? What is the USA actually doing, or trying to do? I'm not talking about whatever Trump tweeted three days ago at 2am.
Here's a puzzler to consider. Who has been worse for the average Canadian's standard of living: Donald Trump and his tariffs, or Dominic Barton and his goal of booming the population to 100 million through his friends Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney?
One is the most hated man in the world among Canadians, the other just got appointed to a plum patronage job by his close friend and ideological fellow traveler, our PM with a 1002% approval rating.
Repost this to everyone in your contacts. It’s over time a lot of Canadians woke up to our new reality. Jen’s thesis about Democrats and the mid-terms not being our salvation is smack on. I we as Canadians need to get serious about forging our future and that includes Albertans. If we don’t stop the cheap shots and destructive tactics, we’re done.
As a starting point let’s ensure all those foreign investors, that are coming at our Prime Ministers invitation this month, see a Canada that is united behind the vision he is projecting.
I have to admit, I've not exactly been elbows up. I do think we have mishandled our end of the trade dispute. Mark Carney was elected promising to fix this mess, and that he was the only candidate that could. I haven't always felt that negotiating and finalizing a deal with the US to shore up the economy has been a priority.
So I don't like how we got here.
But now that we're here, I think Carney has the right approach. We can't go back to the table while they're flooding the zone with memes of eagles strangling geese, or renaming lakes or making fun of our cadets.
Mark Carney is in the most enviable position of any politician in the world. He has absolutely no metrics for success or failure in his dealings with the US, short of not signing an annexation treaty.
Come to some kind of deal? He's the shrewd negotiator and Trump Whisperer he was voted in as. No deal? Wartime insanity and rally around the flag, and nobody could make a deal with this insane US government anyway, right?
I think so little of both sides in this dispute that it wouldn't surprise me at all if they both cooked up the whole thing at the last minute so that Trump could distract from Iran and Carney could rile us all into the overblown anti-American froth that Jen Gerson seems to have worked herself into here.
I agree with you insofar as I don't like how we got here. I don't believe they've prioritized normalizing relations with the US because it didn't suit their purposes to do so.
I'm just saying, however we got HERE, we're HERE now, and the posture Carney is taking appears to be the right one.
And it just so happens that exact posture serves Carney personally; even more serves the Liberal party politically; and sucks up all the oxygen so every other issue disappears.
However we got HERE matters a helluva lot, because if part of getting HERE was that specific elites decided HERE served their own interests over that of Canada, well...
Shh, you're not allowed to imply that noted truth stretcher/omitter Mark Carney's motivations and tactics are anything other than pure as the driven snow, or else you are giving aid and comfort to The Donald himself.
Like those old posters with Hitler and Tojo listening in over your shoulder while you gossip about troop movements in the park, Trump is right behind you at your keyboard, grinning as you type comments critical of the great Canadian Liberal Government.
Lake Ontario shall always be Lake Ontario, as certain as they will never take away our Sankofa Square or šxʷməθkʷəy̓əmasəm Street!
Agree Ian, the only other thing id like is to put a muzzle on Ford. Im furious at what Trump is doing but I have too many American friends to blame the country. And Im still waiting for Carney to show his hand.
That is Carney's entire approach to dealing with Trump on trade.
Carney is only waiting for impeachment or imprisonment. He knows that Canada cannot bear more retalitation from Trump, and that is now more likely than not.
But again Carney and the leftists that support him have ruined Canada over my lifetime, and especially over the last 11 years.
An unserious country that cannot achieve productivity by properly respecting and valuing private property and capital. Instead we indulge in endless virute singalling and perpetuationg an utterly dysfunctional federalism.
Carney may know all of this , but he is too gutless to acutally attempt genuine transformation within this dyfunction known as Canada.
If you can't concede this grim reality then you are simply delusional.
Albertans will have a chance to express themsleves very soon if they feel that they have more ot fear from Canadian federalism or creating a better alternative via closer integration with the US.
As for the Cadet pic, it was peurile and inflammatory. But it struck a chord and made a point.
And the heavens parted and an Alberta Separatist actually admitted that what they seek is closer integration with the US, instead of pretending they’re actually seeking independence from both Ottawa and Washington!
The number of people who are still so angry that Trudeau never got his historic defeat that they’re willing to _break up the country and sell it to Trump_ over it, is smaller than you think.
> But again Carney and the leftists that support him have ruined Canada over my lifetime, and especially over the last 11 years.
Speaking of needing accept reality or else remain delusional, you need to give up on the idea it's "leftists" supporting Mr. Carney. He's got a hefty amount of support from centrists and conservatives.
For those who don't think Mr. Carney is a good choice for Prime Minister, that's a fact that needs to be addressed, not ignored.
Exactly. If we had still had the PC party of Mulroney, I'm pretty sure Carney would now be its leader and he'd also still be PM of a PC government.
Carney was the first time in my life I've ever voted Liberal, and I didn't even agree with everything in his book (hardly any space given to real tax reform).
The why is absolutely relative... we look great next to that dumpster fire under a shitstorm down south, lol. But we need to continue our improvements, well under way, and cut debt when we can.
Yes, I do know why... aside from the resource demand, the bigger issue is the US ballooning debt crisis. The bond market sees not only that the US is now paying an astounding 25% of GDP to service, but that there's no intervention to stop it going to 33% in 3 years. That's a seriously fucked up sitch... but what would I know... lol. Maybe you're a seasoned financial pro...
Ballooning debt crisis which Canada is caught in. You also have the difference in the overnight rate which is about a percent right now higher for the Americans too. But that's because our economy has weaker demand vs the USA.
Those bond yields are saying the opposite. They expect less growth in Canada.
It's a muddy picture, but hardly one you can say that reflects well on Canada. It's one that shows weaknesses for both economies.
Social Security payments may need to be cut by 22% in 2032 to fix the imbalance between future Social Security payments & revenues. They have a pay-as-you-go system. The high federal deficit plus borrowing by Hyperscalers is putting pressure on US interest rates.
Yes. The bond market is roughly 10x the stock market in volume. Bonds = dog; stocks = tail.
"Hyperscalers" are reported as a factor, but I'm suspicious of a distraction by an industry that todies to the Loser of the Free World... I'd like to see the ratio next to U.S. public borrowing.
Bonds markets are smart, and the distinction between structural fiscal mismanagement circling the bowl and a shorter term industry need are obvious.
Dennis you really dont have to stay if 'Carney and the leftists ... have ruined canada over' your lifetime. Thats impressive Carney has been in office of less than 2 years and he single handedly 'ruined Canada' as you see it. Please spell out specifically what you would like Carney to say and do, with Trump and with domestic issues' that would un-ruin Canada? You are free to leave...honestly, nobody will stop you.
The the conclusion suggesting 'moving on' is denialism of the worst kind because it's delusional. Security, geography, and an integrated economy is the harsh reality. That means we have to deal with reality not as we wish it to be (which is heart and soul of today's 'progressive' movement) but as it is.
Like it or not, Canada is a vital strategic element to the security of the US that too many of us on the northern side of the border presume is our call alone. That's why falsely calling our suzerain status 'vassalized' demonstrates the ongoing and entrenched misunderstanding between sovereignty (which were have) and independence (which we do not have, in spite of Jen's wishful thinking to believe otherwise).
This article has all the hallmarks of a temper tantrum that seeks outward blame rather than inward responsibility. We've screwed the pooch and blame the US for being discovered and exposed for our gross negligence. Sure, the treatment we receive from the current US administration is often infuriating and petty and unfair. But this is the playground. We do control how we exercise our sovereignty. We don't have to respond using the same tactics. But suggesting that we should take the bat and ball and go home is not a reasonable or rational option.
This is way too unfair to Canada — yes we underinvested in military (as did many others), but no we didn’t “screw the pooch”. We’re contributing to NATO and we’re a critical part of NORAD operations, not just a northern land buffer.
And I just fundamentally disagree that we need to accept suzerainty status. We don’t owe the Americans shit for northern security; Russia and China are not conquering land in our North even without the USA (we’re a breakout nuclear weapons state, we could have a bomb within a year if we faced a critical threat). The Americans have to respect both our sovereignty and our independence.
Things will get worse economically, and then we’re going to approve three more pipelines to tidewater, and then we’ll be more economically independent. We are a self sufficient country, even if we wouldn’t be as rich of one without US benevolence.
I agree with basically all of this, with the caveat that I increasingly think we should perhaps just proactively go ahead and develop our own nuclear deterrent. At this point, it may be the quickest and most cost-effective way to make sure no one can seriously threaten our sovereignty while we get the rest of our shit together.
If you’d told me five years ago that I’d be arguing Canada should build nukes, I never would have believed you, and I doubt anyone who knows me would have either...but here we are.
Okay. Reality check time. And this is without considering any other mutually integrated aspect likes culture and language and values that cements our integration with the US.
Canada does over 2 billion dollars a day in trade with the US. A day. Every other country we trade with is measured in years by comparison. In fact, trade with the US is four times the combined value of all our exports to every other country around the world. I mean, seriously... there is no recognizable Canada without the economic ties to the US. So it's kind of important to grasp this reality BEFORE raising the elbows and getting all huffy about our 'independence' and believing in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary that we can 'go our own way'. I see you take this delusional pipedream literally, whereas reality dictates we are not self sufficient. We absolutely depend on the US for our economic lifeblood.
Many Canadians are absolutely clueless about Canada's ongoing role in elevating China through economic growth and facilitating its strategic interests, legal and criminal. As the PEW Research Centre tells us about China - as Terry Glavin so well describes with its "Uyghur slave camps, its “hostage diplomacy,” its digital sabotage, its mass-scale espionage, its intellectual property theft, its forced corporate co-ventures and clandestine election-interference operations," is now viewed more favorably than the United States. We also know China's playbook to expand its global domination is not a secret, either: steal, scale, subdue. We've been doing it in Canada for decades. And there is no greater rock star in this endeavour than McKinsey & Company - faithfully serving oligarchs from Moscow to Beijing to Riyadh without fear or favour - led by its global managing director Dominic Barton... you know, Canada's 2019-21 ambassador to China, strangely enough. Oh, look: Carney just appointed him Chair in Invest in Canada, the same Barton architect who was part and parcel of Trudeau's stellar legacy. The Line's take on all of this? Not critical of Carney, the real Leader of the Free World/International Order since Davos. For this travesty? Crickets. But Trump's latest twitch drop? Rant and roar and probably never ponder how this TDS plays out to help produce the Pew Research Centre results that find Canadians view China more favorably than the United States. This - right here - is a travesty of gigantic proportions that really does help undermine Canadian sovereignty, a disservice to the entire country because of yet another example of her anti-American pique. My preference, my hope for The Line, was that it would be much more pro-Canada by acting as its staunch defender from enemies foreign and domestic rather than becoming so dedicated to its editorial anti-Americanism disguised as anti-Trumpism.
This is really long and I’m not going to try to address it all. But a few points:
(1) 20% of Canadian GDP depends on US trade. So that’s the ceiling on what we would lose if they shut the border tomorrow. Which they won’t, of course. Maybe trade falls by half, and we only make up half of that with diversification to other markets. GDP falls by 5%. A bad recession! But not the end of Canada.
(2) you can splutter all you want about how we’re culturally tied and best friends with America and etc. … I don’t agree and most Canadians don’t. I love individual Americans, I hate what the country’s doing more than I hate China right now.
(3) as many other commenters have said, of course our only counterweight is China. Europe is aging and declining. So what? China can’t ever invade us, they’re inherently less of a threat. We absolutely should get closer to them, warily, but as a counterpoint to the American power.
(4) Those who just whine about what a supermajority of their fellow citizens think, instead of trying to change their minds, never win. Didn’t work for my “side” on bike lanes in Toronto (I think we should have more bike lanes; I think my fellow citizens that want them removed are being shortsighted, but guess what, the bike lanes are being ripped out); didn’t work for the Dems in the USA who couldn’t believe their fellow citizens didn’t want an open border, etc. The CPC should take this to heart, just like the U.S. Dems should.
(5) maybe your culture “cements” your ties to the U.S., it doesn’t for me.
(6) “anti-Americanism” is 100% justified right now. It’s not a slur in the age of Trump and Vance.
(7) we once charted our own way, and part of me thinks carney is playing some 3D chess in provoking American retaliation to drive Canadians to make tough decisions, overcome collective action problems, and draw together. It’s working!
I'm generally sympathetic to your perspectives, @Geoff Olynyk. However, your musing about a five percent drop in GDP is off base.
A shrinkage of five percent of Gross Domestic Product would be much more than "a recession". It would be a severe economic shock, represent the loss of economic activity valued at about CAD 160 billion, and likely the loss of a few hundred thousand jobs, or more.
I think you're on to something with the distinction between sovereignty and independence. We've been totally, 100% ok with being a de facto US protectorate for how long? 50 years?
Free trade was massively controversial at the time it came in (hey Liberals, you guys fought it tooth and nail, remember??) but has been great for both countries' economies, yet it reduced our independence. And for a generation we enjoyed and accepted it to the point where US attacks on free trade are now considered attacks on Canada! In a way, mutual tariffs would *increase* Canadian independence (albeit in a painful way) and we are squealing like stuck pigs at the idea.
My point is that we were fully willing to trade our independence for prosperity right up until a regime in Washington started leveraging their greater power in the bargain and using less than nice words about it.
Oh wait I can't say any of this or run the risk of being labeled an anti-Canadian MAGA maple leaf or whatever.
Perhaps Canadians didn't realize this administration campaigned on creating favourable conditions to increase manufacturing in the US. Any Canadian company can eliminate all the tariff problems by simply moving a hundred miles south. That right to increase independence by the US is presented in Canada as an attack against our independence while we do our best to align with China's anti-US goals and call it a 'strategic partnership!' We're calling it 'patriotic' to exchange trade with a liberal democracy for more trade with a totalitarian one that literally takes our citizens hostage, ships fentanyl precursors to Canada for assembly to poison our people, steals our technology and research, dumps inferior steel and aluminum to undercut these industries, and launders its criminal money through our financial institutions... particularly using mortgages that helps to drive up the price of real estate to make housing unaffordable for the vast majority of our young people. Yet the majority of Canadians and many of its media writers thinks this is preferable to the Evil Orange Man who insults us with tweets and sharpies.
Does this patented JenRant mean that Jen and her family are not moving to the US (LOL)?
I can't disagree with much of what Jen writes here, particularly when she describes Trump and his cronies and their army of disinformation spewers in the traditional and new media, but again, I think it wise to separate X and social media and polarized legacy media from real life.
Jen is absolutely correct that a lot of Americans are minutely focused domestically on food & fuel prices. That's also true in Canada, by the way, despite our pretences otherwise.
Three Hundred and Fifty Million people is an awful lot of people, though, and they're not all fecklessly domestic-focussed and wilfully stupid.
No question, Jen is also absolutely correct that America's decline won't be fixed if the midterms go hard to the Dems, who still have their own issues reorienting their party away from the excesses of the DSA's in their midst. Having said that, I'm seeing signs in some of their more serious media that Americans that do think outside themselves are waking up to the fact that their international reputation is already in tatters, and getting worse by the hour.
What those well meaning folks don't realize, of course, is they are wayyyy too late to be waking up to that fact. America is a pretty big ship to turn around and head in the opposite direction. It'll take decades. They've sewered thir reputation, I'd say for at least a generation.
The great unknown, of course, is what alliances will emerge from America stepping down from its leadership role in the world, and more importantly, what alliances will succeed at stepping into that breach. There are many candidates for that role, and many are much scarier than the late-stage-empire Yankee Doodles. There are some nations, including Canada, that could take up the torch, but to do so will require waking up from their (and our) own 80+ year slumber/complaceny. Early signs are that we are a long ways off of that yet.
Honestly, if Jen and Matt truly believe our relationship with the US is over, then I'd like to see them put The Line's money and editorial focus where their mouths are. To hell with continuing to write and rant about the latest bullshit from the American administration.
Rather than The Line focusing on more US stuff (as they've seemed to suggest in recent podcasts), as a subscriber, I'd much rather see The Line reach out to the thought leaders in other countries in the world that Canada can realistically ally with going forward, as well as continuing to beat the drum on breaking down our own interprovincial barriers here in Canada.
Way too soon to say what we'll do. As you all know, I've got Some Stuff Going On. But I don't see any way around us paying a ton of attention to what the U.S. is doing. It matters too much and gosh, it's fascinating. Jen has better ties there. I'd be better able to do the "rest of world" stuff, should circumstances permit.
That would be nice, but it’s hard to focus on the new neighbours down the street when there’s a rabies-infested, senile elephant rampaging around your backyard, shitting on your manicured flowerbeds and eyeing your house as its next toilet.
I get that to a point, but I think we should be more selective about what we waste our time and energy expressing outrage at - ignore the attention-seeking bluster (most of what comes out of their mouths), and deal head on with actual, tangible impact tarrifs and other aggressive actions. More measured and clever (Carney, giving credit where it's due) and less Trump-lite (Doug Ford, please, someone shut this guy up).
Jen, your righteous anger is such a strong reflection of how I, and I have to think many others, feel about all of this. We are never going back, I think that the USA is beyond the point of no return. Who would have thought that the New World Order would be the USA retreating from the world. I didn't.
Thanks for expressing yourself so well. Buckle up.
You are right, Jen - but I'm 2 months short of 22 years contributing to help build and promote CANZUK. Even in the midst of this tempest, getting people to even give 30 seconds of attention to an idea that fits Carney's “middle power coalition” thesis to a T is like pulling teeth.
If we're actually serious, then we're proactively pursuing alternatives. But if people yell about wanting alternatives but turn their noses up at one being offered with balloons & a big bow, then I have to question how serious the concern is.
Maybe we just like the attention that comes from the drama…
Can you post some links on where and how we can support this initiative? Makes nothing but perfect sense and is a dramatically better idea than the “join the EU” slogan that is being thrown around.
Our group's website is a good start, although we are always open to ideas to expand our efforts - all are welcome! https://www.canzukinternational.com/
I spend too much time watching Canadians’ reaction to what’s happening; the Americucks and the Elbows Up, and the Business Certainty types, and the Hopeful Midterm Wwatchers. I see denial, and anger, and bargaining, depression and fear. All of these emotions are manifestations of grief.
END QUOTE
I certainly agree with your assessment that many Canadians do not fully understand the changes we've seen play out in the United States, and the long-lasting implications of those changes for our country.
It is no longer possible to believe wholeheartedly that future US governments will be more than transactional with us, whether in terms of military interactions, intelligence arrangements or economic relations.
True strategic partnership is over between us, until such time as the United States consistently and sincerely demonstrates that it is willing to treat with us respectfully, as a partner willing to engage in mutually beneficial exchanges.
While this seems unlikely to occur at the moment, and is difficult to foresee anytime before the complete and utter failure of Trumpism is apparent to American citizens, it may not be "forever impossible".
Believe it or not, I still hold out hope that the majority of Americans may yet come to their senses at some point. I just do not expect this to be soon.
As such, I agree with your assessment that Canada must "move on" in respect of the relationship we have long had with the United States.
“I think we’ve reached the end of a real bilateral relationship with the United States.”
I doubt it. Canada is America's resource warehouse. We ship Americans our raw materials, and they turn them into manufactured products they sell back to us. It's not the kind of bilateralism that's particularly advantageous to Canada, but it's been that way for over a century and it isn't really in America's interest to change it.
In recent decades, of course, we've 'diversified' to the point where China gets to have a similarly one-sided 'bilateral relationship' with us too. There's 'progress' for you.
This has been the Trump & Co. game for a decade. A fucking decade! You could have written this article 7 years ago, swapped some names, and had the same result. Yes, Hegseth is a pig and also grossly unqualified for his role. That's so different than his previous hires, wow! And first time Hegseth has said something stupid, right?
What's so dumb about this is its intentional theatre. Trump explicitly floods the zone, gets a a rise and sucks the oxygen out of the room. Yeah, it feels good to slam morons like Hegseth. You can find tons of American commentators doing exactly the same thing for the tweet.
But this article and attitude is just example #2,103,943 of Canadian unseriousness. The very unseriousness Jen accuses the Cons of. You ignore this stuff because it distracts from real issues. This is playing Trumps game. His explicit strategy is to rile everyone up and focus on stupid stuff (like tweets) that are irrelevant. Or signing "Lake America" on a piece of paper.
And then what happens? Real issues just sail by like a ship in the night. Hell, I'm angry about Dominic Barton and what that means for Canada, but hey, Hegseth sent a dumb tweet.
What does everyone do when a deal gets signed and "Lake America" gets its original name back on US maps? What do we freak out about then? Hell, what happens in 27ish months when Trump isn't President anymore? Oh don't worry I'm sure it will be something, it just won't be productivity, crime, healthcare, demographics, spending, or cost of living, but another unserious distraction pushed by media and designed to keep the bottom half of the IQ curve and anyone with high neuroticism voting for the Liberal oligarchy.
Which amusingly the Line is now part of that same structure.
All of it boggles my mind. Our quality of life has seriously diverged from the USA's in a way that has a massive impact on Canadians and will be felt for decades. We should be the wealthiest country in world history given all our advantages.
But modern Canadians were born on third base and think they hit a triple.
Or on a more direct note, a Conservative candidate LITERALLY WAS TOLD NOT TO CAMPAIGN BECAUSE OF THE CCP. Joe Tay was literally contacted by the RCMP and told it was unsafe for him to campaign. In Canada! A candidate for a major party could not fucking campaign because of a foreign power and we... shrugged?
But hell, rename Lake America on Google Maps and be a jackass on Twitter and Jen will write an angry tirade about it!
Up is down and the important and unimportant issues are typically swapped. Unserious shit is perfect for an unserious nation.
It literally doesn't matter who is PM in Canada when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, but that is what decided our election. Probably the last meaningful election we will ever have before the Liberals make their power truly permanent.
Meanwhile we are told to rally around a government that is essentially our enemy as much as Trump is, and be blindly patriotic all of a sudden to a country that usually hates itself and insists on self-flagellation to my specific detriment as a peak taxpayer who doesn't fall under any of the cherished 'disadvantaged' identity groups.
We can call out the American bs and focus on important domestic concerns. It’s not mutually exclusive and this is more serious than typical dumb Trump tweets over the past ten years. The fact that the Americans sabotaged our negotiations and are ramping up the threats is something worth paying attention to. It has real and wide consequences for us.
I do agree that they’re trying to piss us off and distract us. However, this game of governance trolling is dual purpose: annoy and manipulate. Trump is building up a domestic army of dumbasses that will hate us and support our destruction. And his threats will affect policy there and here. Anyone that says it’s just for the lols is either a fool or also playing his game.
(1) It is mutually exclusive. Every article about Hegseth's tweet is one less article about something that matters. Attention and focus are finite resources.
(2) Did the Americans sabotage the negotiations? Who knows. Yes, the US representatives are untrustworthy. But so are the Canadian ones. If it was as Carney said, he'd release the deal because it supported his story. And now we have NP reporting it was Ford who killed the deal. They're all liars.
(3) But what is the actual outcome? What's the effect? So he has a domestic army so...? I don't follow the second and third order effects from the trolling.
Chris you have so much self assurance and wisdom, and of course, Jen is daft as you suggest...sorry please do clarify how she is so wrong? Are things just peachy with the USA right now? Is everything status ok? Please do share some of your genius with all of us about exactly what Carney (or any Canadian leader if he triggers you too much) should say and do right now to fix things ... since its all just fluff you say?
It's obvious, I'm sorry. This could be a whole book, so I'm going to cut a lot of my own fluff and boil it down very simply:
1) Jen's article is dumb because we've had 10 years of Trump.
This article is literally what Trump and his cronies want. He muddies the water with stupid comments, gets people all angry, and then he can do what he wants.
All this does is make Canadians (and many Americans watching on the sidelines) feel self-righteous. Over what? We are now responding to tweets because THAT's important. Wow! So smart! We have Ford copying Trump with dumb announcements and photo ops, which means Trump's strategy is either smart or Ford is also a moron (like those cheering him on). Pick one.
We've had a decade of Trump and we know how to react and handle him. It's not rocket science. The Line, particularly Jen, and those following along have decided to act like the last decade never happened.
2) Actually build like never before.
I'm not going to go into how poorly we still are at building, how we are still being lapped by other western countries and here in BC the govt had to bail out condo developers because the govt org Carney setup literally could not build a thing.
This is about power. If we have minerals and timber and o&g flying out the door we have power we can use and wield. If we had actually build those LNG projects we would have more power right now. A pipeline should be already started going to the east coast so we stop buying American and Russian gas.
For Canadians placing their hopes on the midterms, there are two things to consider. First, the President constitutionally have the most power for unilateral action over foreign policy. If Congress starts to restrain him, things could get worse for a while on trade, because he can ignore Congress. Given Trump's psychological profile, it seems likely that he will act out where he can.
And second, any sensible observer of American politics has to realize that what came before Trump is gone forever, including Canada's relationship with the US. The only question is who will build what to replace it. Democrats are still mostly fighting a rearguard action in defense of what was. Some seem to have clear ideas about where to go next, but darn few among elected officials. The first step to things getting better is to start working towards what comes next, instead of fighting a futile battle to defend the past.
If Canadians had not invited " the lovechild lightweight with the socks " to be our Global Leader three times in a row, then we would have more Global respect and wouldn't be regarded as a weakling by Trump and gang.
So when media types, who helped elect Trudeau, now believe its their job to criticize the Opposition one must wonder where they were when they allowed the lightweight to load his cabinet with such left wing extremists, that they left our economy wide open to anyone who likes playing the bully.
Our media will defend whatever the Liberal Party does, even if that changes 180 degrees overnight. They do this because the Liberals sign their paycheques, the Conservatives have (possibly foolishly) been clear they would not do this if given the chance, and humans respond to financial incentives.
It's apparently too much to ask of Canadians to realize this and adjust their trust in media accordingly.
What can I say but, thanks Jen, for your righteous anger.
Amen. I think the antidote to cynicism and nihilism - to the degree there is one - is leading through values. So many of your recent columns shine with values (I probably don’t need to say this but I will - good values rather than the nutsack values of the current American administration).
A lot of political columns lead with the author’s own cynicism: who’s up, who’s down, was that tactical or was that strategic. I can live with that a bit, but what I really want to know is are we doing the right thing. Not who is winning the latest news cycle, but when years have intervened between now and the time when the future histories are written, will we be proud of our leaders? Did they represent our values proudly and proudly reflect their own?
If Canada manages to get through all this, it will be in part because we stayed true to the things that are most important, including character and integrity. Jen, you’re doing a terrific job lifting our heads up out the muck that defines so much of current discourse.
Agree with the values, thank you for that comment.
You should have run this one past a different proofreader. You wrote: "an influencer"... "because this is what Conservatism in Canada is now". The next paragraph (and sentence) begins with "The Conservative party is".
Yes, an influencer took an extreme and tasteless position. But that influencer is NOT representative of the Conservative Party nor the entire conservative movement. Nor is there any valid link between that deplorable influencer and the Conservative Party. But your writing implied that they are one and the same.
Canada is in the mess it is because of the airtime given to the lunatic fringes at both ends of the spectrum stealing the oxygen from more reasonable discussions. It is now almost impossible to get anything done because of the constant pandering to and/or avoidance of these very vocal groups.
The influencer isn't representative of the Party, unless the Party chooses consciously to associate itself with that influencer -- by prioritizing interviews with the leader; giving them special access and treatment -- and even speaking spots (!) at convention. The CPC did all this, consciously and knowingly, in a bid to create a kind of "regime media" for itself.
Those very same people then found themselves in the tank for the Americans, and the CPC doesn't seem to know how to extricate itself from its own self-created audience capture problem. Lessons learned all around. There is a reason media should never be fully in the tent. JG
(Also, yes, there were a few proof reading mistakes in this.)
The Line might need to take the bullshit detector into the repair shop. The CPC gave media accreditation to CTV, Pierre gave an interview to Rosemary Barton, but this doesn't mean the Party endorses the editorial position of Global News. Just because Jasmine Lane spoke about mental health at the convention does not mean the Party endorses every tweet from the Pleb.
Are you seriously comparing legacy media like CBC/Global/CTV who have professional reporters that are present at virtually all political events to some random tiktok influencer who was specifically invited?
Yes, I was making a comparison, which is not the same as conflating, but the point was to highlight the unseriousness of holding you accountable for the views of a Matt, because you gave an interview to Jen. I'm a Line Subscriber and I have never seen any videos by any of these streamers, so it feels a tad disorienting as a Conservative to have my paid influencers tell me random tiktokers are representative of my party. The legacy media were also specifically invited for the same reason specific streamers were invited, so the party's message could reach the widest receptive audience. The Conservative Party is literally the people who paid the $1100 to attend the convention, not the media who attend for free. The Conservative MP who represents the cadets told Hegseth to shut up or man up and fight him. Are his views not more representative of the Conservative Party than some random Twitch streamer?
Who was the influencer?
Feel like I have to add, "honest question".
I'm legitimately out of touch.
This f***ing guy: https://www.youtube.com/@theplebreporter
Christ.
We've strayed so far from the light.
I like that he is brandishing his CPC Convention press pass in the middle of his title page. Nice touch.
(Edit: I'm going to add a "Jesus Fucking Christ" of general exasperation here)
If your lead criticism is proofreading, maybe you've missed the point.
As an aside, what does it say about the Conservative Party that its leader is too afraid of Jamil Jivani to kick him out of caucus for promoting JD Vance's talking points? That's a powerful tell about the party's base.
no shit, lol. speaks volumes
Correct me if I'm wrong, but did the CPC not only invite them to their convention, but give them prominent spots at it? That would seem to me to be a very valid link.
The Party gave media accreditation to people who work in social media and traditional media. One person who works in social media, Jasmine Lane spoke at the convention about her advocacy on mental health. So this is like Jen claiming the CPC believes 9/11 wasn't terrorism because the leader gave an interview to Global News.
Well, as with anything though, those influencers exist on a spectrum too. On both the left and the right, we've gotten far too comfortable in hearing a position and using that position to paint the entire opposing camp.
I don't disagree, but if you're the Conservatives vying for any kind of relevancy right now you simply cannot afford to shoot yourself in the foot like that. The only logical conclusions to take away it is that they've either made a fairly large error in judgement, or a decent subsection of the party is sympathetic to those positions.
Neither of those options are good.
We can and should be judged for our friends, lol.
Both the abject failure americucks and the marxists who can't think critically are stains on their parties. The results speak for themselves.
I don't think this is fair.
We have overwhelming evidence of americucks who love fat orange baby in the CPC... not many for sure, but enough to confuse the party into an unintelligible strategy.
That influencer is most certainly representative of how Conservatives and their bots behave online . Whine at this and that, toxicity, misinformation, canada is broken, blah blah blah. It bleeds off votes by the truckload. Its like they are intentionally trying to get people to not vote Conservative so they can continue their ragebait "poor us, only we know the truth". I vote Conservative over the years because of small government and creating your own opportunity as some of the core economic values. But this whole "the government ruined me and I cant get up off my ass because of Trudeau and THE LIBS" is such self defeatist trash. Trumps behaviour has just enabled more of them to act this way; and the result is a likely 3 term Mark Carney.
Let us pray that “moving on” does not mean jumping into alliances with the CCP which appears to be the direction we’re moving as evidenced by the recent appointment of Dominic Barton.
"Alliances" with the Chinese Communist Party? No.
Doing more business with them and giving them market access in return for the same from them? Yeah, it probably does mean exactly that.
And that's a consequence of the new world Donald Trump made. I don't like it, but he didn't ask my permission before he decided to make the US into something we'd have to distrust for the rest of my lifetime. That's where we are now. We will never trust the US again, because we cannot trust them again.
And it almost certainly can't be increased cooperation with Japan, South Korea & Europe. It's going to involve dealing more with China.
Because that is unfortunately, the only option open to us since the US has made clear their intent to turn us into their vassal. And yeah, China would probably love to do that too. The difference is they can't. So we don't have to work as hard to prevent it.
THIS. Oh my god, how do more people not understand, the Chinese superpower may be more distasteful but they inherently can’t vassalize us due to distance. So they’re inherently less of a threat.
Indeed.
We should still be clear that the Chinese government is still a *threat*. They are NOT our friends. And it doesn't look like they want to be either. They have a history of trying to mess with our elections, spying on us, threatening ethnically Chinese Canadians and retaliating on trade if we have the temerity to say what we think about slave labour or invading your neighbours. (Not to mention industrial espionage and sabotage of Canadian companies.)
They are NOT friends.
That said, the Americans are pushing us into this and we unfortunately have to work with China more now. We just have to be careful. It's far less than ideal, but it is what it is.
Not quite sure how that works. Britain vassalized India quite effectively when it took months to travel or even communicate between them.
“Whatever happens / we have got / the Maxim gun / and they have not”. The technological dominance of the European imperial powers over the developing world at that time was overwhelming. If the Indians fought back they were slaughtered, which actually happened, many times. Canada, as I’ve pointed out many times, is a breakout nuclear weapons state that could have a bomb within a year if we faced a crisis. Not comparable.
Also, seriously, you want to compare Canadian institutions, intelligence, ability to respond to threats to that of a non-industrial backwater 150 years ago? I mean, I know people think Trudeau degraded Canadian institutions, but come on. Yes, we let it get embarrassingly bad under Trudeau (Chinese secret police stations in Canada etc.) but we’re fixing that now. This isn’t actually that hard as soon as we put some adults in charge.
It worked for Britain because they kept a Military presence in India. The US hasn't decided that as regards Canada- or have they- check the document- The National Security Strategy of The United States of America.
The Chinese don't use vassalization -they are more adept at subversion.
A Canadian Conservative candidate literally was unable to run in the last federal election because of CCP threats. A church here in BC was surrounded by CCP thugs and people were barricaded inside for hours. CSIS has been reporting since the 1990s they’ve been successfully buying off politicans at all levels of government. They’ve been using land transferred to First Nations to do a lot of illegal shit. CCP drug running and money laundering has hugely contributed to cost of living and the fentanyl crisis - killing thousands and thousands of Canadians. But yeah, they can’t “vassalise” us.
Yep. That's right. They can't "vassalize" us. They can hurt us, but they can't do that.
As I said, they're not our friends. They're an adversary. But the real world limits what's within their power and what isn't.
They have the power to do all the things you mentioned. But to "vassalize" us they need to be able to project military power across an ocean which they can't. They need radically more economic power over us (like the Americans have). Ultimately, they need geographic proximity because the very thing that makes diversification so hard for us also limits who can "vassalize" us.
Or to put it another way... they need to be the United States. And they're not.
Oh and also... to "vassalize" Canada, China also needs the USA to disappear because while the USA might be done with the old arrangement of us underspending and them making all the major decisions on the continent and defence, they're not done with being the only global power in the western hemisphere. That's where the USA has always been quite prepared to use hard power.
*************
But you're right... they can hurt us.. which is why under formerly normal circumstances distancing ourselves was the better choice. But Mr. Trump wrecked that. Now we can't trust the USA and we have to balance two hostile forces which are different kinds of threats to us.
What does "vassalise" us even mean?
You have decades of real measurable harms which has very directly led to the deaths of tens of thousands of Canadians, the subourning of politicans, corrupted elections, and drug money poured into housing.
Vasalising means what, concretely? What is the USA actually doing, or trying to do? I'm not talking about whatever Trump tweeted three days ago at 2am.
Here's a puzzler to consider. Who has been worse for the average Canadian's standard of living: Donald Trump and his tariffs, or Dominic Barton and his goal of booming the population to 100 million through his friends Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney?
Not sure what the point is of comparison - there's small choice between rotten apples.
One is the most hated man in the world among Canadians, the other just got appointed to a plum patronage job by his close friend and ideological fellow traveler, our PM with a 1002% approval rating.
Well written Jen - scary though - the reality of it all.
Repost this to everyone in your contacts. It’s over time a lot of Canadians woke up to our new reality. Jen’s thesis about Democrats and the mid-terms not being our salvation is smack on. I we as Canadians need to get serious about forging our future and that includes Albertans. If we don’t stop the cheap shots and destructive tactics, we’re done.
As a starting point let’s ensure all those foreign investors, that are coming at our Prime Ministers invitation this month, see a Canada that is united behind the vision he is projecting.
Big concern I have with that get together is the newly appointed Dominic Barton. Anyone who has done their homework on him, he scares me.
Another Banger from Jen Gerson!
I have to admit, I've not exactly been elbows up. I do think we have mishandled our end of the trade dispute. Mark Carney was elected promising to fix this mess, and that he was the only candidate that could. I haven't always felt that negotiating and finalizing a deal with the US to shore up the economy has been a priority.
So I don't like how we got here.
But now that we're here, I think Carney has the right approach. We can't go back to the table while they're flooding the zone with memes of eagles strangling geese, or renaming lakes or making fun of our cadets.
Mark Carney is in the most enviable position of any politician in the world. He has absolutely no metrics for success or failure in his dealings with the US, short of not signing an annexation treaty.
Come to some kind of deal? He's the shrewd negotiator and Trump Whisperer he was voted in as. No deal? Wartime insanity and rally around the flag, and nobody could make a deal with this insane US government anyway, right?
I think so little of both sides in this dispute that it wouldn't surprise me at all if they both cooked up the whole thing at the last minute so that Trump could distract from Iran and Carney could rile us all into the overblown anti-American froth that Jen Gerson seems to have worked herself into here.
I agree with you insofar as I don't like how we got here. I don't believe they've prioritized normalizing relations with the US because it didn't suit their purposes to do so.
I'm just saying, however we got HERE, we're HERE now, and the posture Carney is taking appears to be the right one.
And it just so happens that exact posture serves Carney personally; even more serves the Liberal party politically; and sucks up all the oxygen so every other issue disappears.
However we got HERE matters a helluva lot, because if part of getting HERE was that specific elites decided HERE served their own interests over that of Canada, well...
Shh, you're not allowed to imply that noted truth stretcher/omitter Mark Carney's motivations and tactics are anything other than pure as the driven snow, or else you are giving aid and comfort to The Donald himself.
Like those old posters with Hitler and Tojo listening in over your shoulder while you gossip about troop movements in the park, Trump is right behind you at your keyboard, grinning as you type comments critical of the great Canadian Liberal Government.
Lake Ontario shall always be Lake Ontario, as certain as they will never take away our Sankofa Square or šxʷməθkʷəy̓əmasəm Street!
Agree Ian, the only other thing id like is to put a muzzle on Ford. Im furious at what Trump is doing but I have too many American friends to blame the country. And Im still waiting for Carney to show his hand.
Yeah, Ford should take the same approach as Carney - "we'll talk when you can be respectful"
When you are down in the polls, this is exactly what we should expect. It’s up to Canadians to not fall for it and ask for something more substantive.
It got Eby, Ford and Carney elected and it is going to save Christine Frechette too.
Aimless theater.
That is Carney's entire approach to dealing with Trump on trade.
Carney is only waiting for impeachment or imprisonment. He knows that Canada cannot bear more retalitation from Trump, and that is now more likely than not.
But again Carney and the leftists that support him have ruined Canada over my lifetime, and especially over the last 11 years.
An unserious country that cannot achieve productivity by properly respecting and valuing private property and capital. Instead we indulge in endless virute singalling and perpetuationg an utterly dysfunctional federalism.
Carney may know all of this , but he is too gutless to acutally attempt genuine transformation within this dyfunction known as Canada.
If you can't concede this grim reality then you are simply delusional.
Albertans will have a chance to express themsleves very soon if they feel that they have more ot fear from Canadian federalism or creating a better alternative via closer integration with the US.
As for the Cadet pic, it was peurile and inflammatory. But it struck a chord and made a point.
We all know why.
And the heavens parted and an Alberta Separatist actually admitted that what they seek is closer integration with the US, instead of pretending they’re actually seeking independence from both Ottawa and Washington!
The number of people who are still so angry that Trudeau never got his historic defeat that they’re willing to _break up the country and sell it to Trump_ over it, is smaller than you think.
> But again Carney and the leftists that support him have ruined Canada over my lifetime, and especially over the last 11 years.
Speaking of needing accept reality or else remain delusional, you need to give up on the idea it's "leftists" supporting Mr. Carney. He's got a hefty amount of support from centrists and conservatives.
For those who don't think Mr. Carney is a good choice for Prime Minister, that's a fact that needs to be addressed, not ignored.
Exactly. If we had still had the PC party of Mulroney, I'm pretty sure Carney would now be its leader and he'd also still be PM of a PC government.
Carney was the first time in my life I've ever voted Liberal, and I didn't even agree with everything in his book (hardly any space given to real tax reform).
lol... US bonds are now a full point below Canadian bonds. Any idea why?
Not because Canada has its fiscal house in order.
Far from it.
Both countries, as does the EU, deconstruct entitlements fundamentally.
But rest assured that is not going to come for the left.
The why is absolutely relative... we look great next to that dumpster fire under a shitstorm down south, lol. But we need to continue our improvements, well under way, and cut debt when we can.
Wait, do you mean higher? Do you actually know why?
There is some good news, almost entirely tied to global resource prices, but you're not making the argument you think you are.
oops, good catch.
Yes, I do know why... aside from the resource demand, the bigger issue is the US ballooning debt crisis. The bond market sees not only that the US is now paying an astounding 25% of GDP to service, but that there's no intervention to stop it going to 33% in 3 years. That's a seriously fucked up sitch... but what would I know... lol. Maybe you're a seasoned financial pro...
Ballooning debt crisis which Canada is caught in. You also have the difference in the overnight rate which is about a percent right now higher for the Americans too. But that's because our economy has weaker demand vs the USA.
Those bond yields are saying the opposite. They expect less growth in Canada.
It's a muddy picture, but hardly one you can say that reflects well on Canada. It's one that shows weaknesses for both economies.
Social Security payments may need to be cut by 22% in 2032 to fix the imbalance between future Social Security payments & revenues. They have a pay-as-you-go system. The high federal deficit plus borrowing by Hyperscalers is putting pressure on US interest rates.
Yes. The bond market is roughly 10x the stock market in volume. Bonds = dog; stocks = tail.
"Hyperscalers" are reported as a factor, but I'm suspicious of a distraction by an industry that todies to the Loser of the Free World... I'd like to see the ratio next to U.S. public borrowing.
Bonds markets are smart, and the distinction between structural fiscal mismanagement circling the bowl and a shorter term industry need are obvious.
Dennis you really dont have to stay if 'Carney and the leftists ... have ruined canada over' your lifetime. Thats impressive Carney has been in office of less than 2 years and he single handedly 'ruined Canada' as you see it. Please spell out specifically what you would like Carney to say and do, with Trump and with domestic issues' that would un-ruin Canada? You are free to leave...honestly, nobody will stop you.
Hyperbole, thy name is Jen.
The the conclusion suggesting 'moving on' is denialism of the worst kind because it's delusional. Security, geography, and an integrated economy is the harsh reality. That means we have to deal with reality not as we wish it to be (which is heart and soul of today's 'progressive' movement) but as it is.
Like it or not, Canada is a vital strategic element to the security of the US that too many of us on the northern side of the border presume is our call alone. That's why falsely calling our suzerain status 'vassalized' demonstrates the ongoing and entrenched misunderstanding between sovereignty (which were have) and independence (which we do not have, in spite of Jen's wishful thinking to believe otherwise).
This article has all the hallmarks of a temper tantrum that seeks outward blame rather than inward responsibility. We've screwed the pooch and blame the US for being discovered and exposed for our gross negligence. Sure, the treatment we receive from the current US administration is often infuriating and petty and unfair. But this is the playground. We do control how we exercise our sovereignty. We don't have to respond using the same tactics. But suggesting that we should take the bat and ball and go home is not a reasonable or rational option.
This is way too unfair to Canada — yes we underinvested in military (as did many others), but no we didn’t “screw the pooch”. We’re contributing to NATO and we’re a critical part of NORAD operations, not just a northern land buffer.
And I just fundamentally disagree that we need to accept suzerainty status. We don’t owe the Americans shit for northern security; Russia and China are not conquering land in our North even without the USA (we’re a breakout nuclear weapons state, we could have a bomb within a year if we faced a critical threat). The Americans have to respect both our sovereignty and our independence.
Things will get worse economically, and then we’re going to approve three more pipelines to tidewater, and then we’ll be more economically independent. We are a self sufficient country, even if we wouldn’t be as rich of one without US benevolence.
We should not bend the knee for pieces of silver.
I agree with basically all of this, with the caveat that I increasingly think we should perhaps just proactively go ahead and develop our own nuclear deterrent. At this point, it may be the quickest and most cost-effective way to make sure no one can seriously threaten our sovereignty while we get the rest of our shit together.
If you’d told me five years ago that I’d be arguing Canada should build nukes, I never would have believed you, and I doubt anyone who knows me would have either...but here we are.
I agree and part of me wonders if they’re already working on it.
Self sufficient?
Okay. Reality check time. And this is without considering any other mutually integrated aspect likes culture and language and values that cements our integration with the US.
Canada does over 2 billion dollars a day in trade with the US. A day. Every other country we trade with is measured in years by comparison. In fact, trade with the US is four times the combined value of all our exports to every other country around the world. I mean, seriously... there is no recognizable Canada without the economic ties to the US. So it's kind of important to grasp this reality BEFORE raising the elbows and getting all huffy about our 'independence' and believing in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary that we can 'go our own way'. I see you take this delusional pipedream literally, whereas reality dictates we are not self sufficient. We absolutely depend on the US for our economic lifeblood.
Many Canadians are absolutely clueless about Canada's ongoing role in elevating China through economic growth and facilitating its strategic interests, legal and criminal. As the PEW Research Centre tells us about China - as Terry Glavin so well describes with its "Uyghur slave camps, its “hostage diplomacy,” its digital sabotage, its mass-scale espionage, its intellectual property theft, its forced corporate co-ventures and clandestine election-interference operations," is now viewed more favorably than the United States. We also know China's playbook to expand its global domination is not a secret, either: steal, scale, subdue. We've been doing it in Canada for decades. And there is no greater rock star in this endeavour than McKinsey & Company - faithfully serving oligarchs from Moscow to Beijing to Riyadh without fear or favour - led by its global managing director Dominic Barton... you know, Canada's 2019-21 ambassador to China, strangely enough. Oh, look: Carney just appointed him Chair in Invest in Canada, the same Barton architect who was part and parcel of Trudeau's stellar legacy. The Line's take on all of this? Not critical of Carney, the real Leader of the Free World/International Order since Davos. For this travesty? Crickets. But Trump's latest twitch drop? Rant and roar and probably never ponder how this TDS plays out to help produce the Pew Research Centre results that find Canadians view China more favorably than the United States. This - right here - is a travesty of gigantic proportions that really does help undermine Canadian sovereignty, a disservice to the entire country because of yet another example of her anti-American pique. My preference, my hope for The Line, was that it would be much more pro-Canada by acting as its staunch defender from enemies foreign and domestic rather than becoming so dedicated to its editorial anti-Americanism disguised as anti-Trumpism.
This is really long and I’m not going to try to address it all. But a few points:
(1) 20% of Canadian GDP depends on US trade. So that’s the ceiling on what we would lose if they shut the border tomorrow. Which they won’t, of course. Maybe trade falls by half, and we only make up half of that with diversification to other markets. GDP falls by 5%. A bad recession! But not the end of Canada.
(2) you can splutter all you want about how we’re culturally tied and best friends with America and etc. … I don’t agree and most Canadians don’t. I love individual Americans, I hate what the country’s doing more than I hate China right now.
(3) as many other commenters have said, of course our only counterweight is China. Europe is aging and declining. So what? China can’t ever invade us, they’re inherently less of a threat. We absolutely should get closer to them, warily, but as a counterpoint to the American power.
(4) Those who just whine about what a supermajority of their fellow citizens think, instead of trying to change their minds, never win. Didn’t work for my “side” on bike lanes in Toronto (I think we should have more bike lanes; I think my fellow citizens that want them removed are being shortsighted, but guess what, the bike lanes are being ripped out); didn’t work for the Dems in the USA who couldn’t believe their fellow citizens didn’t want an open border, etc. The CPC should take this to heart, just like the U.S. Dems should.
(5) maybe your culture “cements” your ties to the U.S., it doesn’t for me.
(6) “anti-Americanism” is 100% justified right now. It’s not a slur in the age of Trump and Vance.
(7) we once charted our own way, and part of me thinks carney is playing some 3D chess in provoking American retaliation to drive Canadians to make tough decisions, overcome collective action problems, and draw together. It’s working!
I'm generally sympathetic to your perspectives, @Geoff Olynyk. However, your musing about a five percent drop in GDP is off base.
A shrinkage of five percent of Gross Domestic Product would be much more than "a recession". It would be a severe economic shock, represent the loss of economic activity valued at about CAD 160 billion, and likely the loss of a few hundred thousand jobs, or more.
I think you're on to something with the distinction between sovereignty and independence. We've been totally, 100% ok with being a de facto US protectorate for how long? 50 years?
Free trade was massively controversial at the time it came in (hey Liberals, you guys fought it tooth and nail, remember??) but has been great for both countries' economies, yet it reduced our independence. And for a generation we enjoyed and accepted it to the point where US attacks on free trade are now considered attacks on Canada! In a way, mutual tariffs would *increase* Canadian independence (albeit in a painful way) and we are squealing like stuck pigs at the idea.
My point is that we were fully willing to trade our independence for prosperity right up until a regime in Washington started leveraging their greater power in the bargain and using less than nice words about it.
Oh wait I can't say any of this or run the risk of being labeled an anti-Canadian MAGA maple leaf or whatever.
Perhaps Canadians didn't realize this administration campaigned on creating favourable conditions to increase manufacturing in the US. Any Canadian company can eliminate all the tariff problems by simply moving a hundred miles south. That right to increase independence by the US is presented in Canada as an attack against our independence while we do our best to align with China's anti-US goals and call it a 'strategic partnership!' We're calling it 'patriotic' to exchange trade with a liberal democracy for more trade with a totalitarian one that literally takes our citizens hostage, ships fentanyl precursors to Canada for assembly to poison our people, steals our technology and research, dumps inferior steel and aluminum to undercut these industries, and launders its criminal money through our financial institutions... particularly using mortgages that helps to drive up the price of real estate to make housing unaffordable for the vast majority of our young people. Yet the majority of Canadians and many of its media writers thinks this is preferable to the Evil Orange Man who insults us with tweets and sharpies.
Stupid is as stupid does.
Does this patented JenRant mean that Jen and her family are not moving to the US (LOL)?
I can't disagree with much of what Jen writes here, particularly when she describes Trump and his cronies and their army of disinformation spewers in the traditional and new media, but again, I think it wise to separate X and social media and polarized legacy media from real life.
Jen is absolutely correct that a lot of Americans are minutely focused domestically on food & fuel prices. That's also true in Canada, by the way, despite our pretences otherwise.
Three Hundred and Fifty Million people is an awful lot of people, though, and they're not all fecklessly domestic-focussed and wilfully stupid.
No question, Jen is also absolutely correct that America's decline won't be fixed if the midterms go hard to the Dems, who still have their own issues reorienting their party away from the excesses of the DSA's in their midst. Having said that, I'm seeing signs in some of their more serious media that Americans that do think outside themselves are waking up to the fact that their international reputation is already in tatters, and getting worse by the hour.
What those well meaning folks don't realize, of course, is they are wayyyy too late to be waking up to that fact. America is a pretty big ship to turn around and head in the opposite direction. It'll take decades. They've sewered thir reputation, I'd say for at least a generation.
The great unknown, of course, is what alliances will emerge from America stepping down from its leadership role in the world, and more importantly, what alliances will succeed at stepping into that breach. There are many candidates for that role, and many are much scarier than the late-stage-empire Yankee Doodles. There are some nations, including Canada, that could take up the torch, but to do so will require waking up from their (and our) own 80+ year slumber/complaceny. Early signs are that we are a long ways off of that yet.
Honestly, if Jen and Matt truly believe our relationship with the US is over, then I'd like to see them put The Line's money and editorial focus where their mouths are. To hell with continuing to write and rant about the latest bullshit from the American administration.
Rather than The Line focusing on more US stuff (as they've seemed to suggest in recent podcasts), as a subscriber, I'd much rather see The Line reach out to the thought leaders in other countries in the world that Canada can realistically ally with going forward, as well as continuing to beat the drum on breaking down our own interprovincial barriers here in Canada.
Way too soon to say what we'll do. As you all know, I've got Some Stuff Going On. But I don't see any way around us paying a ton of attention to what the U.S. is doing. It matters too much and gosh, it's fascinating. Jen has better ties there. I'd be better able to do the "rest of world" stuff, should circumstances permit.
Best with Some Stuff Going On.
Sigh, wishful thinking on less USA bluster.
I suppose that's the business you two are in.
I'm just weary of it.
That would be nice, but it’s hard to focus on the new neighbours down the street when there’s a rabies-infested, senile elephant rampaging around your backyard, shitting on your manicured flowerbeds and eyeing your house as its next toilet.
I get that to a point, but I think we should be more selective about what we waste our time and energy expressing outrage at - ignore the attention-seeking bluster (most of what comes out of their mouths), and deal head on with actual, tangible impact tarrifs and other aggressive actions. More measured and clever (Carney, giving credit where it's due) and less Trump-lite (Doug Ford, please, someone shut this guy up).
I agree, I just wanted to make a jest :)
Jen, your righteous anger is such a strong reflection of how I, and I have to think many others, feel about all of this. We are never going back, I think that the USA is beyond the point of no return. Who would have thought that the New World Order would be the USA retreating from the world. I didn't.
Thanks for expressing yourself so well. Buckle up.
You are right, Jen - but I'm 2 months short of 22 years contributing to help build and promote CANZUK. Even in the midst of this tempest, getting people to even give 30 seconds of attention to an idea that fits Carney's “middle power coalition” thesis to a T is like pulling teeth.
If we're actually serious, then we're proactively pursuing alternatives. But if people yell about wanting alternatives but turn their noses up at one being offered with balloons & a big bow, then I have to question how serious the concern is.
Maybe we just like the attention that comes from the drama…
Can you post some links on where and how we can support this initiative? Makes nothing but perfect sense and is a dramatically better idea than the “join the EU” slogan that is being thrown around.
Our group's website is a good start, although we are always open to ideas to expand our efforts - all are welcome! https://www.canzukinternational.com/
QUOTE
I spend too much time watching Canadians’ reaction to what’s happening; the Americucks and the Elbows Up, and the Business Certainty types, and the Hopeful Midterm Wwatchers. I see denial, and anger, and bargaining, depression and fear. All of these emotions are manifestations of grief.
END QUOTE
I certainly agree with your assessment that many Canadians do not fully understand the changes we've seen play out in the United States, and the long-lasting implications of those changes for our country.
It is no longer possible to believe wholeheartedly that future US governments will be more than transactional with us, whether in terms of military interactions, intelligence arrangements or economic relations.
True strategic partnership is over between us, until such time as the United States consistently and sincerely demonstrates that it is willing to treat with us respectfully, as a partner willing to engage in mutually beneficial exchanges.
While this seems unlikely to occur at the moment, and is difficult to foresee anytime before the complete and utter failure of Trumpism is apparent to American citizens, it may not be "forever impossible".
Believe it or not, I still hold out hope that the majority of Americans may yet come to their senses at some point. I just do not expect this to be soon.
As such, I agree with your assessment that Canada must "move on" in respect of the relationship we have long had with the United States.
“I think we’ve reached the end of a real bilateral relationship with the United States.”
I doubt it. Canada is America's resource warehouse. We ship Americans our raw materials, and they turn them into manufactured products they sell back to us. It's not the kind of bilateralism that's particularly advantageous to Canada, but it's been that way for over a century and it isn't really in America's interest to change it.
In recent decades, of course, we've 'diversified' to the point where China gets to have a similarly one-sided 'bilateral relationship' with us too. There's 'progress' for you.
More self-righteous Canadian flatulence.
This has been the Trump & Co. game for a decade. A fucking decade! You could have written this article 7 years ago, swapped some names, and had the same result. Yes, Hegseth is a pig and also grossly unqualified for his role. That's so different than his previous hires, wow! And first time Hegseth has said something stupid, right?
What's so dumb about this is its intentional theatre. Trump explicitly floods the zone, gets a a rise and sucks the oxygen out of the room. Yeah, it feels good to slam morons like Hegseth. You can find tons of American commentators doing exactly the same thing for the tweet.
But this article and attitude is just example #2,103,943 of Canadian unseriousness. The very unseriousness Jen accuses the Cons of. You ignore this stuff because it distracts from real issues. This is playing Trumps game. His explicit strategy is to rile everyone up and focus on stupid stuff (like tweets) that are irrelevant. Or signing "Lake America" on a piece of paper.
And then what happens? Real issues just sail by like a ship in the night. Hell, I'm angry about Dominic Barton and what that means for Canada, but hey, Hegseth sent a dumb tweet.
What does everyone do when a deal gets signed and "Lake America" gets its original name back on US maps? What do we freak out about then? Hell, what happens in 27ish months when Trump isn't President anymore? Oh don't worry I'm sure it will be something, it just won't be productivity, crime, healthcare, demographics, spending, or cost of living, but another unserious distraction pushed by media and designed to keep the bottom half of the IQ curve and anyone with high neuroticism voting for the Liberal oligarchy.
Which amusingly the Line is now part of that same structure.
All of it boggles my mind. Our quality of life has seriously diverged from the USA's in a way that has a massive impact on Canadians and will be felt for decades. We should be the wealthiest country in world history given all our advantages.
But modern Canadians were born on third base and think they hit a triple.
Or on a more direct note, a Conservative candidate LITERALLY WAS TOLD NOT TO CAMPAIGN BECAUSE OF THE CCP. Joe Tay was literally contacted by the RCMP and told it was unsafe for him to campaign. In Canada! A candidate for a major party could not fucking campaign because of a foreign power and we... shrugged?
But hell, rename Lake America on Google Maps and be a jackass on Twitter and Jen will write an angry tirade about it!
What a joke.
Up is down and the important and unimportant issues are typically swapped. Unserious shit is perfect for an unserious nation.
It literally doesn't matter who is PM in Canada when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, but that is what decided our election. Probably the last meaningful election we will ever have before the Liberals make their power truly permanent.
Meanwhile we are told to rally around a government that is essentially our enemy as much as Trump is, and be blindly patriotic all of a sudden to a country that usually hates itself and insists on self-flagellation to my specific detriment as a peak taxpayer who doesn't fall under any of the cherished 'disadvantaged' identity groups.
We can call out the American bs and focus on important domestic concerns. It’s not mutually exclusive and this is more serious than typical dumb Trump tweets over the past ten years. The fact that the Americans sabotaged our negotiations and are ramping up the threats is something worth paying attention to. It has real and wide consequences for us.
I do agree that they’re trying to piss us off and distract us. However, this game of governance trolling is dual purpose: annoy and manipulate. Trump is building up a domestic army of dumbasses that will hate us and support our destruction. And his threats will affect policy there and here. Anyone that says it’s just for the lols is either a fool or also playing his game.
(1) It is mutually exclusive. Every article about Hegseth's tweet is one less article about something that matters. Attention and focus are finite resources.
(2) Did the Americans sabotage the negotiations? Who knows. Yes, the US representatives are untrustworthy. But so are the Canadian ones. If it was as Carney said, he'd release the deal because it supported his story. And now we have NP reporting it was Ford who killed the deal. They're all liars.
(3) But what is the actual outcome? What's the effect? So he has a domestic army so...? I don't follow the second and third order effects from the trolling.
Chris you have so much self assurance and wisdom, and of course, Jen is daft as you suggest...sorry please do clarify how she is so wrong? Are things just peachy with the USA right now? Is everything status ok? Please do share some of your genius with all of us about exactly what Carney (or any Canadian leader if he triggers you too much) should say and do right now to fix things ... since its all just fluff you say?
It's obvious, I'm sorry. This could be a whole book, so I'm going to cut a lot of my own fluff and boil it down very simply:
1) Jen's article is dumb because we've had 10 years of Trump.
This article is literally what Trump and his cronies want. He muddies the water with stupid comments, gets people all angry, and then he can do what he wants.
All this does is make Canadians (and many Americans watching on the sidelines) feel self-righteous. Over what? We are now responding to tweets because THAT's important. Wow! So smart! We have Ford copying Trump with dumb announcements and photo ops, which means Trump's strategy is either smart or Ford is also a moron (like those cheering him on). Pick one.
We've had a decade of Trump and we know how to react and handle him. It's not rocket science. The Line, particularly Jen, and those following along have decided to act like the last decade never happened.
2) Actually build like never before.
I'm not going to go into how poorly we still are at building, how we are still being lapped by other western countries and here in BC the govt had to bail out condo developers because the govt org Carney setup literally could not build a thing.
This is about power. If we have minerals and timber and o&g flying out the door we have power we can use and wield. If we had actually build those LNG projects we would have more power right now. A pipeline should be already started going to the east coast so we stop buying American and Russian gas.
For Canadians placing their hopes on the midterms, there are two things to consider. First, the President constitutionally have the most power for unilateral action over foreign policy. If Congress starts to restrain him, things could get worse for a while on trade, because he can ignore Congress. Given Trump's psychological profile, it seems likely that he will act out where he can.
And second, any sensible observer of American politics has to realize that what came before Trump is gone forever, including Canada's relationship with the US. The only question is who will build what to replace it. Democrats are still mostly fighting a rearguard action in defense of what was. Some seem to have clear ideas about where to go next, but darn few among elected officials. The first step to things getting better is to start working towards what comes next, instead of fighting a futile battle to defend the past.
Not a great situation.
If Canadians had not invited " the lovechild lightweight with the socks " to be our Global Leader three times in a row, then we would have more Global respect and wouldn't be regarded as a weakling by Trump and gang.
So when media types, who helped elect Trudeau, now believe its their job to criticize the Opposition one must wonder where they were when they allowed the lightweight to load his cabinet with such left wing extremists, that they left our economy wide open to anyone who likes playing the bully.
Our media will defend whatever the Liberal Party does, even if that changes 180 degrees overnight. They do this because the Liberals sign their paycheques, the Conservatives have (possibly foolishly) been clear they would not do this if given the chance, and humans respond to financial incentives.
It's apparently too much to ask of Canadians to realize this and adjust their trust in media accordingly.