So tired of these climate crusaders and their huge carbon footprints. Makes me want to build an incinerator in my backyard, burn a few tires, and send a giant "fuck you" in smoke signals.
Everyone seems to just accept that we have to get to net zero by 50. Especially in the media. And therefore we are debating various plans and time lines. But I have yet to see someone answering the question, what if we don't? What will happen? What are we actually getting for investing trillions? A few fractions of degrees of more warming? And are we factoring in various adaptations that can be applied?
Not enough questions are being asked, as we are embarking on this trillion $ bet.
What will happen is a lot more of what's already happened, with the more-frequent-and-worse fires, heat domes, and droughts.
Sorry, did you think there was some entirely new threat on the way, perhaps the Mole People will emerge from Earth's Centre now that it's warm enough?
Nope. Just more-frequent-and-worse fires, droughts, heat waves and floods.
It's not linear, of course, but at low levels, roughly so. You've now seen the effects of one degree of warming. 1.5 is, ahem, baked-in by the carbon already present, the insulation it provides just hasn't gotten us to 1.5 yet, but we'd reach it if we stopped all emissions today.
What's up for the possible avoidance of, is 2 degrees, and thus, roughly twice as many heat domes, etc etc. This is BARELY possible with the most-aggressive strategies now being radically proposed.
Regarding the media alternatives...there is the weather channel dealing with the 'what if we don't?' question. Lots of riveting dramas about the earth burnin & drownin'.
Regarding adaptations...I gather that's kind of what the discussion in some circles about lowering carbon emissions is about, but beyond that some are betting on evolutionary timelines. However, that's very much a long tail futures market.
"...he's more invested in acting the part of prime minister than being it. " But that has been the case since 2015; the difference between then and now is that people are noticing.
The thing that always bothered me about this, is how Canadians profess great concern over the environment. Global warming boo-hoo, Yet if you ask about the oceans. It’s like and parson my French “but big fucking deal so we destroyed the fisheries in two oceans like BORING” , We can always in Import our lobster from the US so who cares.
If Canadians really care about the environment, they had work to restore and save our fisheries!
As for your quote “watching First World nations take the lead will hopefully force others to follow. “ You can’t actually believe that can you? Tongue planted firmly in cheek I hope? Like China Russia et al give a shit what the Trudeau and the rest of First World think. With O&G by far the primary target while leaving transportation, agriculture etc off the hook and no countervails on oil imports you just have to know this was a direct shot at the west, primarily Alberta. Jason Kenney resides in his own toxic stew and is certainly a soft target so little risk electorally in setting him alight to keep Quebec happy. Keith Davey would be so proud.
Asking the question answers it, only in a situation where you imagine the Leaders of the Free World, assembled, to be either idiots or weasels. And they aren't idiots.
They're weasels, of course, and Trudeau could do that, because they all are. Name me a nation that has forthrightly said, "Fossil Fuels are sunset industries, and our target for producing the last carbon products is X. Our target for our last consumption is Y. Our fossil fuel companies must accept targets for ramping down and shutting down production. The first one to be shut down will be field Z, in 2025." (Some date within their expected career.)
Until somebody actually starts picking dates for specific actions, naming specific industrial/economic harms - not "goals" about the final result, which is how you weasel - they are all Trudeaus.
As you say, why should we cut off our nose, being the first?
I'm afraid this is nothing new. When the Kyoto accord was signed in 1997, I was a grad student with the combustion & environment research group in the faculty of engineering. At our weekly meetings, a frequent topic of discussion was what the Chretien government was planning to do in order to meet their commitments under the protocol. Nothing was ever announced. To the extent that Chretien had a plan, it seemed to be to make a bigger commitment than the Americans and somehow get credit for the boreal forest as a carbon sink. Here we are 25 years later, with scant progress made on planning and the same problems unsolved - namely that we live in a cold climate requiring a lot of heating, in cities set up for mass use of personal automobiles, with our largest industries dependent on the consumption of large amounts of energy that currently require a great deal of carbon emissions. The oil industry is an easy target, but I'll know the federal government is serious the day that it starts talking about regulating the carbon impact of central Canadian industries responsible for consuming all of those hydrocarbons - the steel industry, automotive manufacturing, and aerospace.
Thank you for a witty and informative column. Yes, oil and gas is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, but the one industry being ignored in Canada is agriculture. Farming, especially beef, produces a lot of nocive effects to the environment. Also hog farming is problematic and the over-use of nitrogen as fertilizer is bad.
Do we want to show leadership? Let's create a non-partisan, multi-disciplinarian group of experts tasked with proposing legislation, taxation and incentives to spur innovation while sustaining the economy. If all major parties agree to listen and we all trust who is sitting there, I really think there will be less regional tension and a sense that our biggest gift to the world is that of "good government". But what do I know!
Segmenting emissions by industry is pointless as economic flows are complex (cracking down on agricultural, like doing so on O&G, would simply shift the activity to different geographies). Genuine climate change action would focus on demand. Of course that would take capable leadership and not rely on polarizing, social media laden, identity politics.
Agreed. Instead of playing whack-a-mole let's look at emissions/climate change systemically, with smart people/experts from across Canada. It is unfortunately easier to single out a culprit than to say "it is very complicated" and offer rational choices. Not to mention that everyone is in favour of climate action until it requires some personal sacrifice...
Controlling the methane emissions from cows would mean pissing off the dairy farmers. Do you understand anything about Canadian politics and where rural Quebec farmers fit on the totem pole?
Regarding Kenney's equalization gambit, I'm going to re-submit a comment I made on Rainer Knopff's post...
...
The problem with solipsism is, well,...other people.
The problem with Kenney's little gambit, if one recalls those wonderful heady days of constitutional confabs with Pierre, late night skinny dips in the Meech Lagoon and dancing delirious to the Charlottetown Accordian Players, is Kenney won't be in charge of process or outcomes.
Constitutional changes are the product of negotiations. Other folks have other agendas.
Let's clarify S35, say Indigenous Peoples, post-many apologies and court cases. Let's get nationhood into the constitution says M. Legault, post-House of Commons and National Assembly acts of recognition.
So Jason, we hear you want to talk constitutional changes. Well, Old John Eh knew well enough to fill a boat with booze before you try to take George Brown dancing...
So seriously Jason, really, how drunk are you?
(Cue video of Blanchet giggling)
...
Regarding Justin's marketing model of politics. Image is everything (thus the relentless supply of photo-ops, with teddy bears, etc.). The nitty gritty dirty work of implementation, left to others, will flow from the image like rays of sunshine enervating the earth below where, paraphrasing the first Maoist, 'may a thousands flowers bloom, blossom and bless the earth beneath my feet'.
Surreptitiously, Kenney's referendum might provide a solution in the form of inciting another divisive round of constitutional wrangling that will cripple the federal government :)
This former Albertan would prefer a cap on emissions from the 400 series highways and the Toronto and Dorval airports, agressively moving to zero.
So tired of these climate crusaders and their huge carbon footprints. Makes me want to build an incinerator in my backyard, burn a few tires, and send a giant "fuck you" in smoke signals.
Everyone seems to just accept that we have to get to net zero by 50. Especially in the media. And therefore we are debating various plans and time lines. But I have yet to see someone answering the question, what if we don't? What will happen? What are we actually getting for investing trillions? A few fractions of degrees of more warming? And are we factoring in various adaptations that can be applied?
Not enough questions are being asked, as we are embarking on this trillion $ bet.
What will happen is a lot more of what's already happened, with the more-frequent-and-worse fires, heat domes, and droughts.
Sorry, did you think there was some entirely new threat on the way, perhaps the Mole People will emerge from Earth's Centre now that it's warm enough?
Nope. Just more-frequent-and-worse fires, droughts, heat waves and floods.
It's not linear, of course, but at low levels, roughly so. You've now seen the effects of one degree of warming. 1.5 is, ahem, baked-in by the carbon already present, the insulation it provides just hasn't gotten us to 1.5 yet, but we'd reach it if we stopped all emissions today.
What's up for the possible avoidance of, is 2 degrees, and thus, roughly twice as many heat domes, etc etc. This is BARELY possible with the most-aggressive strategies now being radically proposed.
Regarding the media alternatives...there is the weather channel dealing with the 'what if we don't?' question. Lots of riveting dramas about the earth burnin & drownin'.
Regarding adaptations...I gather that's kind of what the discussion in some circles about lowering carbon emissions is about, but beyond that some are betting on evolutionary timelines. However, that's very much a long tail futures market.
"...he's more invested in acting the part of prime minister than being it. " But that has been the case since 2015; the difference between then and now is that people are noticing.
So there is hope? Maybe someone will offer the peacock a job as UN or WEF Virtue-Signaler-in-Chief.
What may save us all is if Steve "Towerman" Guilbeault does the same bang-up job in Environment Canada as he did in Heritage.
The thing that always bothered me about this, is how Canadians profess great concern over the environment. Global warming boo-hoo, Yet if you ask about the oceans. It’s like and parson my French “but big fucking deal so we destroyed the fisheries in two oceans like BORING” , We can always in Import our lobster from the US so who cares.
If Canadians really care about the environment, they had work to restore and save our fisheries!
As for your quote “watching First World nations take the lead will hopefully force others to follow. “ You can’t actually believe that can you? Tongue planted firmly in cheek I hope? Like China Russia et al give a shit what the Trudeau and the rest of First World think. With O&G by far the primary target while leaving transportation, agriculture etc off the hook and no countervails on oil imports you just have to know this was a direct shot at the west, primarily Alberta. Jason Kenney resides in his own toxic stew and is certainly a soft target so little risk electorally in setting him alight to keep Quebec happy. Keith Davey would be so proud.
Asking the question answers it, only in a situation where you imagine the Leaders of the Free World, assembled, to be either idiots or weasels. And they aren't idiots.
They're weasels, of course, and Trudeau could do that, because they all are. Name me a nation that has forthrightly said, "Fossil Fuels are sunset industries, and our target for producing the last carbon products is X. Our target for our last consumption is Y. Our fossil fuel companies must accept targets for ramping down and shutting down production. The first one to be shut down will be field Z, in 2025." (Some date within their expected career.)
Until somebody actually starts picking dates for specific actions, naming specific industrial/economic harms - not "goals" about the final result, which is how you weasel - they are all Trudeaus.
As you say, why should we cut off our nose, being the first?
I'm afraid this is nothing new. When the Kyoto accord was signed in 1997, I was a grad student with the combustion & environment research group in the faculty of engineering. At our weekly meetings, a frequent topic of discussion was what the Chretien government was planning to do in order to meet their commitments under the protocol. Nothing was ever announced. To the extent that Chretien had a plan, it seemed to be to make a bigger commitment than the Americans and somehow get credit for the boreal forest as a carbon sink. Here we are 25 years later, with scant progress made on planning and the same problems unsolved - namely that we live in a cold climate requiring a lot of heating, in cities set up for mass use of personal automobiles, with our largest industries dependent on the consumption of large amounts of energy that currently require a great deal of carbon emissions. The oil industry is an easy target, but I'll know the federal government is serious the day that it starts talking about regulating the carbon impact of central Canadian industries responsible for consuming all of those hydrocarbons - the steel industry, automotive manufacturing, and aerospace.
Please someone offer him that job!
Thank you for a witty and informative column. Yes, oil and gas is an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, but the one industry being ignored in Canada is agriculture. Farming, especially beef, produces a lot of nocive effects to the environment. Also hog farming is problematic and the over-use of nitrogen as fertilizer is bad.
Do we want to show leadership? Let's create a non-partisan, multi-disciplinarian group of experts tasked with proposing legislation, taxation and incentives to spur innovation while sustaining the economy. If all major parties agree to listen and we all trust who is sitting there, I really think there will be less regional tension and a sense that our biggest gift to the world is that of "good government". But what do I know!
Segmenting emissions by industry is pointless as economic flows are complex (cracking down on agricultural, like doing so on O&G, would simply shift the activity to different geographies). Genuine climate change action would focus on demand. Of course that would take capable leadership and not rely on polarizing, social media laden, identity politics.
Agreed. Instead of playing whack-a-mole let's look at emissions/climate change systemically, with smart people/experts from across Canada. It is unfortunately easier to single out a culprit than to say "it is very complicated" and offer rational choices. Not to mention that everyone is in favour of climate action until it requires some personal sacrifice...
Controlling the methane emissions from cows would mean pissing off the dairy farmers. Do you understand anything about Canadian politics and where rural Quebec farmers fit on the totem pole?
It's always been about what the NY Times thinks (and reports) with the Liberal chattering classes in Canada.
Regarding Kenney's equalization gambit, I'm going to re-submit a comment I made on Rainer Knopff's post...
...
The problem with solipsism is, well,...other people.
The problem with Kenney's little gambit, if one recalls those wonderful heady days of constitutional confabs with Pierre, late night skinny dips in the Meech Lagoon and dancing delirious to the Charlottetown Accordian Players, is Kenney won't be in charge of process or outcomes.
Constitutional changes are the product of negotiations. Other folks have other agendas.
Let's clarify S35, say Indigenous Peoples, post-many apologies and court cases. Let's get nationhood into the constitution says M. Legault, post-House of Commons and National Assembly acts of recognition.
So Jason, we hear you want to talk constitutional changes. Well, Old John Eh knew well enough to fill a boat with booze before you try to take George Brown dancing...
So seriously Jason, really, how drunk are you?
(Cue video of Blanchet giggling)
...
Regarding Justin's marketing model of politics. Image is everything (thus the relentless supply of photo-ops, with teddy bears, etc.). The nitty gritty dirty work of implementation, left to others, will flow from the image like rays of sunshine enervating the earth below where, paraphrasing the first Maoist, 'may a thousands flowers bloom, blossom and bless the earth beneath my feet'.
Surreptitiously, Kenney's referendum might provide a solution in the form of inciting another divisive round of constitutional wrangling that will cripple the federal government :)
Trudeau is more "Meta" than Facebook