As long as the West continues to impose sanctions...and leaves them in place, Putin has already lost. Every building he knocks down; every piece of infrastructure he destroys, his economy...whatever is left of it will have to pay to restore. The only question now is will his reign end with him alive or dead. That will be up to Russia to determine.
Now that Russia has also turned to straight terror bombing of civilians, is it not time to at least debate the notion of making Ukraine a NATO patrolled no-fly zone? Is that not what NATO did in Kosovo? Yes, it's a major escalation.....or balancing of the playing field that Russia won't appreciate. Putin has already played his biggest threat card; I wonder how he'd respond to open discussion of the idea? I am quite comfortable with the notion that Western airpower can overcome anything Russia might choose to reply with. But I'm equally concerned that relying on Russian generals to take away Putin's nuclear option(as America's generals did to Trump); should he demand it, is a little less certain. But surely they have noticed what is happening to their economy and why, and that there's a better way out of this than ending humanity. I'm not sure Putin does...(see Al Pacino in Scarface). But I'd love to hear others' thoughts.
While it's unfair to the athletes, I'd also like to see Russian and Belorussian athletes expelled from the coming Paralympics. WTA...it's time to tell them to go home as well. No Russian athlete of any stripe should be exempted. It's all about applying pressure to Putin. He's losing. Every government should be doing their best to speed that process. Go after the rest of the oligarchs today...take away their properties outside of Russia. They can live on what they have in Russian banks. They enabled this...they need to fix it.
Jen - I enjoy reading and learning from everything The Line posts. I listen most often to what Prof. Stephen Kotkin has to say re Communism/Russia/Stalin/China, etc. But I've recently heard of John Mearsheimer; he takes a somewhat different stance on Russia he blames the US for creating this problem. Mearsheimer thinks Ukraine should remain neutral re establishing a close relationship to either the west and to Russia. This would reduce Russia's concern re NATO and western expansion into the east. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine
Others including Kotkin, share similar views that the USA/west should have created better diplomatic relationships with Russia after the USSR dissolved, in order to contain /appease Russia more. Our main priority should be focusing on what China is up to more.
I find keeping up with geopolitics dizzying, but necessary in order to be a good citizen.
I think we in the West need to start considering what our ideal goal is here. People are getting justifyably angry, but are jumping to ideas (a no-fly zone, for example) that will serve to escalate the conflict, not end it.
So, here's what I think. The ideal is that Ukraine retain its right to exist, with security. It should be able to determine its own future without having to kowtow to the wants of Russia. Whether that's with Crimea and the 'breakaway' regions or not -- honestly, I don't understand the underlying elements here enough to comment. And, I think that's up to Ukraine to negotiate as part of a peace agreement.
But, a reformed Russia is much better than a beaten and angry Russia. What is the path back to the international order for Russia and its people? I think the sanctions have been a brilliant way to illustrate the benefits of the rules-based international order -- and the downsides to unilaterally defying that order. But, isn't our goal to give Russia a road back? The sticks are critically important, but so are the carrots. That too will be an important lesson for China and they are no doubt watching how this progresses.
Ideally, I think, we need to make the cost of just invading a country -- because you can -- high enough that there are simply better ways to thrive as a global power (innovation, better governance, etc). Might cannot make right.
I think the hardest thing about this conflict is it will involve patience in the face of horror -- mostly for the Ukrainian people, but also for those of us who watch and wish we could do more to bring this to a quick end. But, rashly escalating the war out of that impluse, I think, is a mistake that will ultimately just make the horror last longer.
I will say after watching the pettiness and growing stupidity of our domestic political debate, watching Ukraine react to this crisis -- with skill, courage and savvy -- has been inspirational.
I was born in 1948 and grew up in Hamilton Ontario among the steel mills.
Starting when I was about 10, more and more of my new school acquaintances were Ukrainian or Polish. Their parents were Cold War refugees from behind the Iron Curtain. I remember how different their family perspectives were from mine. Their peaceful hard-working parents had been violently uprooted, had fled their beloved mother country with children in tow, and had started over again in a new world. There was no joy in those families, at least in the early days, but plenty of grim acceptance of their fate.
What I see now is the same tragedy playing out. My adult son asks me about today's ghastly scene (his questions are matter-of-fact -- what might one side do now, why doesn't the other side do such-and-so?) but all I can think about are the families who will manage to get out only to spend the rest of their lives tearful over their loved ones who didn't. It breaks my heart to see this happening.
I heard that the Ukrainians had set up a hotline where Russians mothers could phone to check on their sons. (I'm assuming most of the soldiers going into the Ukraine are male.)
I hope this story is true because, as a strategy, it's both useful and humanitarian. It will likely win the hearts of Russian families, while more broadly undermining the Russian appetite for Putin's goals.
An excellent op-ed, Jen. It was also a pleasant shift from some of the less cogent fare we've seen here of late (excepting, of course, the always compelling material from Matt Gurney). Thank you.
Ukraine has been successful in more areas than propaganda. They have rallied both world leaders and global business - Oracle, Microsoft, Elon Musk are examples. The speed of assembling such a wide coalition of partners has been breathtaking. The Ukrainian VP’s Twitter feed is fascinating.
I have no idea what will happen next - aside from the relentless shelling of Ukraine. But if Ukraine falls it will not be for lack of courage or intelligence.
Yep, we've all seen all those clips you mentioned, because everybody is watching the same 12 clips every day, no matter which station they turn to.
So frustrating to be unable to do anything (except mail over Trudeau's rockets), except take money away from oligarchs. It would be great for The Line to ask what more Canada can do to confiscate stored assets that were stripped from illiberal regimes we do business with - Russia, China, and yes, Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, diverted nearly all of $2B in IMF aid straight into 54 firms in the Privat group of companies, in Caribbean, American, and Cypriot jurisdictions, never to help Ukraine. This was in the open, not some shadowy story, the watchdog groups ANTAC and Nashi Groshi were able to watch every transaction in court registers. We've basically treated it as legal, and our Paradise Papers winners use it too.
Isn't it time we stopped? If the Paradise tax havens were given the same treatment as if they started stamping out $1 Blu-Rays of the latest Hollywood, claiming their sovereignty to do so, they'd be shut down in a week.
I'd like to know (maybe a guest columnist for The Line?) the power players of the Russian government: the 'oligarchs', Vladimir Putin, the Foreign Intelligence Service (formerly KGB), the media ecosystem, and what are the relationships amongst all the above?
This might give some insight into who is making/supporting the decision to do all this, and what sort of buttons the West can push to stop it
It ain't surreal over here in Ukraine. Thanks for your support. Slava ukrainii, geroum slava
As long as the West continues to impose sanctions...and leaves them in place, Putin has already lost. Every building he knocks down; every piece of infrastructure he destroys, his economy...whatever is left of it will have to pay to restore. The only question now is will his reign end with him alive or dead. That will be up to Russia to determine.
Now that Russia has also turned to straight terror bombing of civilians, is it not time to at least debate the notion of making Ukraine a NATO patrolled no-fly zone? Is that not what NATO did in Kosovo? Yes, it's a major escalation.....or balancing of the playing field that Russia won't appreciate. Putin has already played his biggest threat card; I wonder how he'd respond to open discussion of the idea? I am quite comfortable with the notion that Western airpower can overcome anything Russia might choose to reply with. But I'm equally concerned that relying on Russian generals to take away Putin's nuclear option(as America's generals did to Trump); should he demand it, is a little less certain. But surely they have noticed what is happening to their economy and why, and that there's a better way out of this than ending humanity. I'm not sure Putin does...(see Al Pacino in Scarface). But I'd love to hear others' thoughts.
While it's unfair to the athletes, I'd also like to see Russian and Belorussian athletes expelled from the coming Paralympics. WTA...it's time to tell them to go home as well. No Russian athlete of any stripe should be exempted. It's all about applying pressure to Putin. He's losing. Every government should be doing their best to speed that process. Go after the rest of the oligarchs today...take away their properties outside of Russia. They can live on what they have in Russian banks. They enabled this...they need to fix it.
A poignant and effective analysis. Thank you Ms. Gerson.
Jen - I enjoy reading and learning from everything The Line posts. I listen most often to what Prof. Stephen Kotkin has to say re Communism/Russia/Stalin/China, etc. But I've recently heard of John Mearsheimer; he takes a somewhat different stance on Russia he blames the US for creating this problem. Mearsheimer thinks Ukraine should remain neutral re establishing a close relationship to either the west and to Russia. This would reduce Russia's concern re NATO and western expansion into the east. https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine
Others including Kotkin, share similar views that the USA/west should have created better diplomatic relationships with Russia after the USSR dissolved, in order to contain /appease Russia more. Our main priority should be focusing on what China is up to more.
I find keeping up with geopolitics dizzying, but necessary in order to be a good citizen.
I think we in the West need to start considering what our ideal goal is here. People are getting justifyably angry, but are jumping to ideas (a no-fly zone, for example) that will serve to escalate the conflict, not end it.
So, here's what I think. The ideal is that Ukraine retain its right to exist, with security. It should be able to determine its own future without having to kowtow to the wants of Russia. Whether that's with Crimea and the 'breakaway' regions or not -- honestly, I don't understand the underlying elements here enough to comment. And, I think that's up to Ukraine to negotiate as part of a peace agreement.
But, a reformed Russia is much better than a beaten and angry Russia. What is the path back to the international order for Russia and its people? I think the sanctions have been a brilliant way to illustrate the benefits of the rules-based international order -- and the downsides to unilaterally defying that order. But, isn't our goal to give Russia a road back? The sticks are critically important, but so are the carrots. That too will be an important lesson for China and they are no doubt watching how this progresses.
Ideally, I think, we need to make the cost of just invading a country -- because you can -- high enough that there are simply better ways to thrive as a global power (innovation, better governance, etc). Might cannot make right.
I think the hardest thing about this conflict is it will involve patience in the face of horror -- mostly for the Ukrainian people, but also for those of us who watch and wish we could do more to bring this to a quick end. But, rashly escalating the war out of that impluse, I think, is a mistake that will ultimately just make the horror last longer.
I will say after watching the pettiness and growing stupidity of our domestic political debate, watching Ukraine react to this crisis -- with skill, courage and savvy -- has been inspirational.
I was born in 1948 and grew up in Hamilton Ontario among the steel mills.
Starting when I was about 10, more and more of my new school acquaintances were Ukrainian or Polish. Their parents were Cold War refugees from behind the Iron Curtain. I remember how different their family perspectives were from mine. Their peaceful hard-working parents had been violently uprooted, had fled their beloved mother country with children in tow, and had started over again in a new world. There was no joy in those families, at least in the early days, but plenty of grim acceptance of their fate.
What I see now is the same tragedy playing out. My adult son asks me about today's ghastly scene (his questions are matter-of-fact -- what might one side do now, why doesn't the other side do such-and-so?) but all I can think about are the families who will manage to get out only to spend the rest of their lives tearful over their loved ones who didn't. It breaks my heart to see this happening.
I heard that the Ukrainians had set up a hotline where Russians mothers could phone to check on their sons. (I'm assuming most of the soldiers going into the Ukraine are male.)
I hope this story is true because, as a strategy, it's both useful and humanitarian. It will likely win the hearts of Russian families, while more broadly undermining the Russian appetite for Putin's goals.
An excellent op-ed, Jen. It was also a pleasant shift from some of the less cogent fare we've seen here of late (excepting, of course, the always compelling material from Matt Gurney). Thank you.
Ukraine has been successful in more areas than propaganda. They have rallied both world leaders and global business - Oracle, Microsoft, Elon Musk are examples. The speed of assembling such a wide coalition of partners has been breathtaking. The Ukrainian VP’s Twitter feed is fascinating.
I have no idea what will happen next - aside from the relentless shelling of Ukraine. But if Ukraine falls it will not be for lack of courage or intelligence.
Yep, we've all seen all those clips you mentioned, because everybody is watching the same 12 clips every day, no matter which station they turn to.
So frustrating to be unable to do anything (except mail over Trudeau's rockets), except take money away from oligarchs. It would be great for The Line to ask what more Canada can do to confiscate stored assets that were stripped from illiberal regimes we do business with - Russia, China, and yes, Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, diverted nearly all of $2B in IMF aid straight into 54 firms in the Privat group of companies, in Caribbean, American, and Cypriot jurisdictions, never to help Ukraine. This was in the open, not some shadowy story, the watchdog groups ANTAC and Nashi Groshi were able to watch every transaction in court registers. We've basically treated it as legal, and our Paradise Papers winners use it too.
Isn't it time we stopped? If the Paradise tax havens were given the same treatment as if they started stamping out $1 Blu-Rays of the latest Hollywood, claiming their sovereignty to do so, they'd be shut down in a week.
I'd like to know (maybe a guest columnist for The Line?) the power players of the Russian government: the 'oligarchs', Vladimir Putin, the Foreign Intelligence Service (formerly KGB), the media ecosystem, and what are the relationships amongst all the above?
This might give some insight into who is making/supporting the decision to do all this, and what sort of buttons the West can push to stop it
Well said